Author Topic: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?  (Read 10109 times)

Omy

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What are your thoughts on this? Obviously none of us have crystal balls and none of us are market timers, but I'm curious about how you think the markets might react to the news.

Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2020, 07:12:00 AM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

FIRE@50

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2020, 07:42:07 AM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.
+ a million

People give the POTUS, regardless of who it is, too much credit when things go well and too much blame when things don't go well. Besides, most of their decisions take years or even decades to fully know the outcome.

Wintergreen78

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2020, 08:40:35 AM »
Based on history it will either go up, go down, or stay the same.

Davnasty

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2020, 08:59:59 AM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.
+ a million

People give the POTUS, regardless of who it is, too much credit when things go well and too much blame when things don't go well. Besides, most of their decisions take years or even decades to fully know the outcome.

Agree with the bolded with regard to the economy, however with regard to the markets, reality follows perception. If people believe the president will be bad for business, markets may reflect that belief.

Omy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2020, 09:40:16 AM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.

fattest_foot

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2020, 10:08:59 AM »
The reality is likely nothing. We may see a short term swing down, as we did a short term swing up with Trump, but overall the President doesn't have that much influence on the markets.

Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2020, 10:30:45 AM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.

Okay, and if they're perceived as being "bad for business" what impact do you actually think that could possibly have in the long run?
Do you really think a single president can appreciably and permanently alter the overall value of the markets?

With every progressive policy that's "bad for business" there's also a business opportunity there. Progressive governments tend to favour program and infrastructure spending, so someone benefits.

My industry is taking an absolute beating right now thanks to an ostensibly progressive government policy from about a decade ago. It is permanently shafting an entire massive industry. However, it is creating AMAZING opportunities for niche market businesses and for larger corporations. With more competition, suppliers are seeing a run on technology sales that will make individual owners more competitive. Consultants and financial service professionals are in insanely high demand, and overall, the money moving through the industry is bigger than ever, despite individual business owners taking home a much lower percentage of that cash.

The overall market of my world is humming despite the policy being "bad for business".

When a progressive leader is seen as "bad for business", what they really mean is that they are bad for the status quo of business, but if you are broad investor, it doesn't matter which businesses fall and which rise, as long as the overall market rises over a long time span.

A progressive president won't fundamentally destroy the US economy, and whatever happens, the economy will likely adapt and flourish like it always does, even when there are brutal and devastating recessions. There's opportunity in everything, the US market isn't some delicate little flower that can't handle shit getting fucked up. It's more like ecosystems that tend to thrive after forest fires.

You simply cannot generalize the short term market reactions to the overall performance of the markets over a long period of time.

Is a recession coming?
Of course.
Could it be triggered by a president?
Of course.
Does it matter in terms of the capacity of your investments to support your retirement?
Of course not.
Not if you've accounted for SORR in your plans, which you should no matter what the political climate is.


ColoAndy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2020, 01:04:51 PM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.
I am more concerned about the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars they are promising to spend (borrow).  Their irresponsible pandering is just as awful as anything Trump has done, in my opinion.  I wish we could throw them all out and start over again. 

FIRE@50

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2020, 01:07:51 PM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.
I am more concerned about the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars they are promising to spend (borrow).  Their irresponsible pandering is just as awful as anything Trump has done, in my opinion.  I wish we could throw them all out and start over again.
It is interesting that you think spending money is worse than killing humans.

ColoAndy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2020, 01:09:20 PM »
How so?

Davnasty

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
Plenty of room for that discussion in the Off Topic section.

Let's keep this thread about the markets.

marty998

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2020, 01:21:14 PM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.
I am more concerned about the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars they are promising to spend (borrow). Their irresponsible pandering is just as awful as anything Trump has done, in my opinion.  I wish we could throw them all out and start over again.

As opposed to what your current administration is doing with increasing the deficit and debt??????? Seem to recall Trump promised to pay off the National Debt entirely.

ColoAndy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2020, 01:23:05 PM »
I agree.  The spending has been out of control.  And it will only get worse with the goodies being promised on the campaign trail every day.  Much worse.

Wintergreen78

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2020, 03:44:45 PM »
Hey! Fortunately you can objectively measure the deficit and the debt. Here is a chart of the federal debt to GDP under different administrations. Look at the evidence over the last 40 years and tell me if you think a democratic or republican administration is more likely to raise deficits.


Wintergreen78

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2020, 03:46:19 PM »
Also, look at the history of federal debt/deficits and the history of market returns and tell me how correlated the two are.

wienerdog

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2020, 04:06:56 PM »
People felt the same way back in 2016.  Don't let it bother you and stay the course unless you are positive you can predict right. :>)  I wonder if she followed her own advice?

Does anyone have thoughts they'd like to share on how they think the stock market will perform after the US presidential election is over?  I generally have nothing to care about the timing of the market, but in this unusual case, I do.  I began a somewhat-planned-somewhat-unplanned sabbatical earlier this year and will probably need to start selling some of my Vanguard funds later this year to cover my ongoing expenses.  It's a bummer to see the market down lately right as I'm heading into a selling period.

I think the immediate reaction will be:

If Clinton wins: stock market surges.

If Trump wins: stock market plummets.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2020, 05:39:15 PM »
Short term, markets will tank. Longer term, probably not much difference. Eventually businesses figure out that a change to ďprogressiveĒ or ďconservativeĒ or ďpopulistĒ just means a different shake-down. Influence is peddled, egos are stroked, and the spice flows.

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2020, 05:52:58 PM »
Do you remember how much the tax cut goosed stocks? That's because stocks are basically priced as a multiple of future after tax profits. A big corporate tax increase would absolutely hit the stock market hard.

So I guess the real question is, do you think that a progressive president would have a big dent in after tax corporate profits? I'm a Warren/Sanders/Yang voter, but I'm pretty sure that none of them would be "good" for the stock market in the short term.*

* - EDITed to add - not that they could get anything done if the republicans keep the Senate.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 06:09:33 PM by PDXTabs »

UnleashHell

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2020, 04:29:27 AM »
I'm a Warren/Sanders/Yang voter, but I'm pretty sure that none of them would be "good" for the stock market in the short term.*


The best thing for the market is when there is a stable basis on which to do business. An increase in money flowing to infrastructure isn't necessarily a bad thing. Business might get hurt in the short term but they adjust very quickly to stay ahead of any changes in regulation. Seems to me its more likely to suffer under the swings in regulations under the current administration. And overall , whilst there have been some short term downturns, the longer term  indicates that its still doing fine now.

If the democrats were to have a big swing in the senate and take all branches of government then i'd suggest not investing in companies tied to the military for a while. but thats stock picking and market timing so generally not advised.

Laserjet3051

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2020, 05:16:46 AM »
EOTWAWKI

Car Jack

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2020, 07:47:28 AM »
The market is stable when the political stage is stable.  I would expect that anyone with an IQ over 70 and a maturity level over 12 would calm things down, regardless of their ideology.  Bush the 2nd wasn't the brightest bulb in the bunch, but even this C student managed to not burn the whole thing down.  Well....there are the wars to spread good cheer and the war to find WMDs, I guess.  Maybe an IQ over 85?

DadJokes

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2020, 08:28:06 AM »
The market is stable when the political stage is stable.  I would expect that anyone with an IQ over 70 and a maturity level over 12 would calm things down, regardless of their ideology.  Bush the 2nd wasn't the brightest bulb in the bunch, but even this C student managed to not burn the whole thing down.  Well....there are the wars to spread good cheer and the war to find WMDs, I guess.  Maybe an IQ over 85?

The guy did graduate from Yale, which I assume is not an easy task, regardless of who his dad was. A study estimated that he was among the "dumber" presidents with a paltry IQ of about 124.8.

But let's attack his intelligence.

ColoAndy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2020, 08:53:27 AM »
The market is stable when the political stage is stable.  I would expect that anyone with an IQ over 70 and a maturity level over 12 would calm things down, regardless of their ideology.  Bush the 2nd wasn't the brightest bulb in the bunch, but even this C student managed to not burn the whole thing down.  Well....there are the wars to spread good cheer and the war to find WMDs, I guess.  Maybe an IQ over 85?

The guy did graduate from Yale, which I assume is not an easy task, regardless of who his dad was. A study estimated that he was among the "dumber" presidents with a paltry IQ of about 124.8.

But let's attack his intelligence.
He was also a fighter pilot, which requires a mastery of aeronautics/aerodynamics.  But many can't help themselves and must attack those personally that they differ with.  And we are told Trump has coarsened our discourse...

GuitarStv

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2020, 10:17:47 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

ixtap

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2020, 10:29:37 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

OMG, add in refugees and people will start thinking we are Scandinavian!!

Careful, you might end up with higher happiness scales!!

Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2020, 10:46:47 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

I hosted a financial event two years ago with speakers like corporate accountants and a certain very aggressive conservative shadow minister, all to talk about the Liberal changes to the corporate tax laws.

It was the biggest fucking eye roll bullshit party ever.

Now, granted, 80% of the policy had to be rolled back because it was about the worst policy packet I've ever seen in my life with horrific unintended consequences to small business owners, which is why I hosted the event.

However, the criticisms weren't so much of a rational nature, attacking the bloated and ineffectual policy on its obvious and blatant failures, the criticisms were largely fear mongering about how "the big money is going to flee Canada".

Um...K

Well, that didn't happen, at all.
They walked back the more fucking stupid aspects of the policy, and still fucked a lot of small businesses pretty hard, but big money stuck around like they always do, and got a nice little shave off of the corporate tax rate to boot.

The markets did some whacky shit for a brief period, and the conservatives hooted and hollared about the sky fucking falling, and then everything went back to normal except that, yeah, a certain cohort of upper middle class professional business owners got rammed pretty badly on their estate planning based on the old laws.

Still, at that meeting it was all fire and fucking brimstone with respect to trickle down economics.

Meanwhile, no one called out the hypocrisy of a policy that specifically injures middle class business owners, from a government who got elected on helping the middle class.

Nope. Fire and brimstone!!!

Paper Chaser

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2020, 10:48:15 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

OMG, add in refugees and people will start thinking we are Scandinavian!!

Careful, you might end up with higher happiness scales!!

Doesn't this all boil down to a feeling of security? People are happier in those places because they can trust that their needs will be met no matter what, kind of like a child living under their parent's care.

I find it interesting that so many people on this forum debate the validity of paying off one's mortgage for a sense of security, and then many of those same people suggest that paying more in taxes for the government to provide more of a sense of security for it's citizens is ok.

If paying off your mortgage is an unadvisable choice based on a weak emotional need for a feeling of security, then how does that jive with the belief that the government should be doing more to support everybody? They're both cases of people sacrificing some financial gain for a feeling of increased security right? Is paying more, so that the government can make you feel more secure badassity?
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 10:58:02 AM by Paper Chaser »

GuitarStv

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2020, 11:52:20 AM »
Doesn't this all boil down to a feeling of security? People are happier in those places because they can trust that their needs will be met no matter what, kind of like a child living under their parent's care.

I find it interesting that so many people on this forum debate the validity of paying off one's mortgage for a sense of security, and then many of those same people suggest that paying more in taxes for the government to provide more of a sense of security for it's citizens is ok.

If paying off your mortgage is an unadvisable choice based on a weak emotional need for a feeling of security, then how does that jive with the belief that the government should be doing more to support everybody? They're both cases of people sacrificing some financial gain for a feeling of increased security right? Is paying more, so that the government can make you feel more secure badassity?

Nope.

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

UnleashHell

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2020, 11:58:35 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

sound horrible, you'll be wanting people to have equal rights or something next.

ixtap

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2020, 12:16:36 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.



Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

OMG, add in refugees and people will start thinking we are Scandinavian!!

Careful, you might end up with higher happiness scales!!

Doesn't this all boil down to a feeling of security? People are happier in those places because they can trust that their needs will be met no matter what, kind of like a child living under their parent's care.

I find it interesting that so many people on this forum debate the validity of paying off one's mortgage for a sense of security, and then many of those same people suggest that paying more in taxes for the government to provide more of a sense of security for it's citizens is ok.

If paying off your mortgage is an unadvisable choice based on a weak emotional need for a feeling of security, then how does that jive with the belief that the government should be doing more to support everybody? They're both cases of people sacrificing some financial gain for a feeling of increased security right? Is paying more, so that the government can make you feel more secure badassity?

You are confusing debating a "sense" of security, that may actually be mathematically less secure, with actual reassurance of security from starving to death or being homeless.

Paper Chaser

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2020, 12:18:47 PM »
Doesn't this all boil down to a feeling of security? People are happier in those places because they can trust that their needs will be met no matter what, kind of like a child living under their parent's care.

I find it interesting that so many people on this forum debate the validity of paying off one's mortgage for a sense of security, and then many of those same people suggest that paying more in taxes for the government to provide more of a sense of security for it's citizens is ok.

If paying off your mortgage is an unadvisable choice based on a weak emotional need for a feeling of security, then how does that jive with the belief that the government should be doing more to support everybody? They're both cases of people sacrificing some financial gain for a feeling of increased security right? Is paying more, so that the government can make you feel more secure badassity?

Nope.

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

I don't think it's possible to live in a society like that and be completely unaffected by a backdrop of a ton of social safety nets. So I'll say that your feeling of security is probably less impacted by this sort of thing now, because you're wealthy. It would very much be impacted by this sort of thing in your younger days no? You would've really appreciated that sense of security at some point right? So is seeking out that feeling of security really worthy of such derision?

I don't really care which side of the mortgage argument or the social safety net argument a person falls on. All I'm saying is that it seems there's a bit of a dichotomy in thinking among some posters here that sacrificing financial gain to achieve an emotional sense of security is a sign of weakness that's worthy of facepunches, but only sometimes. And then in other cases it's totally worthwhile, and anybody who questions that is a heartless monster.

MaaS

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #32 on: January 30, 2020, 12:39:57 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

Wintergreen78

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #33 on: January 30, 2020, 01:46:25 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

Here is a history of the corporate tax rate over time.

From here I got a history of real total returns by decade. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

1950ís: 16.7%
1960ís: 5.2%
1970ís: -1.4%
1980ís: 11.6%
1990ís: 14.7%
2000ís: -3.4%

Do you see a strong correlation between the corporate tax rate and real total returns?

If you are going to start speculating about impacts on the market due to some policy or law that may or may not come into effect, you really should back it up with some evidence.

ixtap

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2020, 02:09:42 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

Here is a history of the corporate tax rate over time.

From here I got a history of real total returns by decade. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

1950ís: 16.7%
1960ís: 5.2%
1970ís: -1.4%
1980ís: 11.6%
1990ís: 14.7%
2000ís: -3.4%

Do you see a strong correlation between the corporate tax rate and real total returns?

If you are going to start speculating about impacts on the market due to some policy or law that may or may not come into effect, you really should back it up with some evidence.


PSSt, I am on your side, but if you are going to make claims about evidence, you should offer the evidence suggested. You posted corporate tax as a % of GDP, which is not the same as actual tax rates, although there is a high correlation.

GuitarStv

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #35 on: January 30, 2020, 03:04:37 PM »
Doesn't this all boil down to a feeling of security? People are happier in those places because they can trust that their needs will be met no matter what, kind of like a child living under their parent's care.

I find it interesting that so many people on this forum debate the validity of paying off one's mortgage for a sense of security, and then many of those same people suggest that paying more in taxes for the government to provide more of a sense of security for it's citizens is ok.

If paying off your mortgage is an unadvisable choice based on a weak emotional need for a feeling of security, then how does that jive with the belief that the government should be doing more to support everybody? They're both cases of people sacrificing some financial gain for a feeling of increased security right? Is paying more, so that the government can make you feel more secure badassity?

Nope.

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

I don't think it's possible to live in a society like that and be completely unaffected by a backdrop of a ton of social safety nets. So I'll say that your feeling of security is probably less impacted by this sort of thing now, because you're wealthy. It would very much be impacted by this sort of thing in your younger days no?

Of course it would have impacted me in my younger days.  As far as personal sense of security today though, no . . . increasing social security nets doesn't really do anything to make me feel more secure.

You would've really appreciated that sense of security at some point right?

Yes, in the past it would have been amazing.


So is seeking out that feeling of security really worthy of such derision?

What derision are we talking about?  I believe that people should have a safety net, and am willing to pay to support one . . . even though I don't ever expect to have to use it.

My argument wasn't that giving people a sense of security is bad . . . but that needing a sense of security is certainly not the only driver for people to support social programs.


I don't really care which side of the mortgage argument or the social safety net argument a person falls on. All I'm saying is that it seems there's a bit of a dichotomy in thinking among some posters here that sacrificing financial gain to achieve an emotional sense of security is a sign of weakness that's worthy of facepunches, but only sometimes. And then in other cases it's totally worthwhile, and anybody who questions that is a heartless monster.

FWIW, I paid off my mortgage years ago . . . doing that did increase my sense of security I suppose.

:P

Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #36 on: January 30, 2020, 03:13:25 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

I don't think anyone has said that it would have no short term impact on the market.

But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #37 on: January 30, 2020, 03:15:21 PM »
Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY...
. . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.

Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Just think if we managed to push up wages while lowering the cost of health care. It would be amazing for my kids and for the country in the medium to long term. It would also be a huge squeeze to corporate profits in the short term. I would vote for it in a second with the understanding that my portfolio would take a beating.

This includes bond portfolios if we manage to push up wages and it pushes up inflation, which again, would be good for the country in the medium to long term.

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #38 on: January 30, 2020, 03:18:47 PM »
But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say people who are approaching their FIRE date?

Also, if we are talking about increasing interest rates because of wages going up people with leveraged real estate could end up underwater.


Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2020, 03:54:26 PM »
But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say people who are approaching their FIRE date?

Also, if we are talking about increasing interest rates because of wages going up people with leveraged real estate could end up underwater.

People who are approaching their FIRE date should already have a plan in place for SORR risk.

People who are heavily leveraged in real estate who can't afford changes in interest rates are putting themselves at enormous risk, and should probably reconsider their strategy.

Basically, people should have plans that account for normal market reactions to the one of two political parties that could be elected in the US.

iris lily

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2020, 04:34:15 PM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.

Gosh, could they be perceived as bad for business because they ARE bad for businesS?

I agree somewhat with the sentiment that too much credit is given to whoever sits in the White House as well as the implied dis of the stock market as irrational (just look at the lunatic).

But  I also think this lunatic has convinced business that he likes business because he has cut regulations and put a freeze on them as well. Someone who is buying stocks likes that regulatory environment.

The Brookings Institute is tracking Trump actions vis a vis regulations here:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/10/18/explaining-the-brookings-deregulatory-tracker/



« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 04:36:35 PM by iris lily »

MaaS

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #41 on: January 30, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

I don't think anyone has said that it would have no short term impact on the market.

But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

The OP seems to be about the near-term market reaction. I personally won't be making any moves based on this, but there are plenty of people on this board that like to discuss short-term market issues.

Why should their threads constantly be highjacked?

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #42 on: January 30, 2020, 04:38:17 PM »
Basically, people should have plans that account for normal market reactions to the one of two political parties that could be elected in the US.

We haven't seen a truly progressive president since, when FDR? I'm not at all convinced that a truly progressive administration that was able to accomplish its agenda is priced into the market, or on anybody's mind. Right now Sanders is the leading progressive candidate (who doesn't even officially align with one of the two parties). Just go read his political positions and wonder what those protectionist tendencies and 90% tax rates would do.

To put it another way, the last time we had a New Deal was in the middle of the great depression. It would be literally unprecedented to have one during the longest economic expansion in history. Which isn't to say that I don't support it, but I support full on French Revolution style democracy - that doesn't make it good for your portfolio.

Malcat

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #43 on: January 30, 2020, 04:42:28 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

I don't think anyone has said that it would have no short term impact on the market.

But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

The OP seems to be about the near-term market reaction. I personally won't be making any moves based on this, but there are plenty of people on this board that like to discuss short-term market issues.

Why should their threads constantly be highjacked?

OP asked how the markets will react.
They did not specify how they will react only in the short term, and contemplating the long range affects is very relevant to investing. So how is anyone hijacking?

Also, if people see a relevant way in which short term affects are relevant to investing strategies, then great! disagree with me! That's the point of this place.

MaaS

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #44 on: January 30, 2020, 04:50:29 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

Here is a history of the corporate tax rate over time.

From here I got a history of real total returns by decade. http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

1950ís: 16.7%
1960ís: 5.2%
1970ís: -1.4%
1980ís: 11.6%
1990ís: 14.7%
2000ís: -3.4%

Do you see a strong correlation between the corporate tax rate and real total returns?

If you are going to start speculating about impacts on the market due to some policy or law that may or may not come into effect, you really should back it up with some evidence.

Sure:

The corp tax cut went into effect for 2018. SP500 earnings per share increased from 114.54 in 2017 to 135.42 in 2018, a change of 18% (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year). The SP500 index rose by a similar amount around the time the cuts were announced.

If the tax cuts are reversed, the next year's earnings will be reduced by a similar amount.

Do we really need to get in a long debate to agree that the price of the SP500 is likely to fall considerably?

Also: I'm making no comment on whether we should or should not roll back the tax cuts. I'm simply saying that the OPs question is a valid one.

« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 05:00:50 PM by MaaS »

MaaS

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #45 on: January 30, 2020, 04:59:18 PM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

I don't think anyone has said that it would have no short term impact on the market.

But for your long range investor, who gives a fuck about the short term market?

The OP seems to be about the near-term market reaction. I personally won't be making any moves based on this, but there are plenty of people on this board that like to discuss short-term market issues.

Why should their threads constantly be highjacked?

OP asked how the markets will react.
They did not specify how they will react only in the short term, and contemplating the long range affects is very relevant to investing. So how is anyone hijacking?

Also, if people see a relevant way in which short term affects are relevant to investing strategies, then great! disagree with me! That's the point of this place.

Go reread my first post. Nowhere in it did I specify a timeframe. You're the one who made that assumption.

Paper Chaser

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #46 on: January 30, 2020, 06:18:24 PM »

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

Of course it would have impacted me in my younger days.  As far as personal sense of security today though, no . . . increasing social security nets doesn't really do anything to make me feel more secure.


Yes, in the past it would have been amazing.


What derision are we talking about?  I believe that people should have a safety net, and am willing to pay to support one . . . even though I don't ever expect to have to use it.

My argument wasn't that giving people a sense of security is bad . . . but that needing a sense of security is certainly not the only driver for people to support social programs

FWIW, I paid off my mortgage years ago . . . doing that did increase my sense of security I suppose.

:P

The derision I was referring to was a mindset among some posters here (in general, not necessarily you) that champion security when it comes in the form of social safety nets, while deriding security when it comes in the form of paying down a mortgage. That seems at least a bit hypocritical to me. If you want others to have security through social safety nets, then it seems consistent to also support those who seek security through mortgage payoff. If you see mortgage payoff as a foolish and wasteful use of resources based on emotional desire for security, then wouldn't social safety nets also be wasting resources to satisfy an emotional need for security?

There's a strong theme of independence and DIY in the FIRE community. The "I" in FIRE literally stands for Independence. We invest for ourselves and avoid brokers. We fix our own stuff instead of throwing it away and buying new. We cook for ourselves, do our own taxes, etc, etc. We do this to attain freedom from social norms like debt slavery or working our lives away in a consumeristic lifestyle. How does that current of independence, self sufficiency and bucking social constructs coincide with a desire to give other people a sense of security through the largest social construct that we have (the Government)? These two outlooks seem to run counter to each other to a degree.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 06:20:13 PM by Paper Chaser »

harvestbook

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #47 on: January 31, 2020, 06:55:49 AM »
I have my opinions and political favorites, but as an agnostic investor, I stand eager and willing to buy up the stocks of whichever side ends up dumping them in a panic.

Assuming we ever have a president again.

Bernard

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #48 on: January 31, 2020, 05:26:11 PM »
What are your thoughts on this? Obviously none of us have crystal balls and none of us are market timers, but I'm curious about how you think the markets might react to the news.

Hard to say. It really depends on whether or not the Democrats can get their sh*t together 'til 2024 or if they continue to slide more and more to the left 'til they hit the wall. For the next 5 years, there will be no Liberal President -- thanks to the Russia, Stormy Daniels, Ukraine, Stormy Daniels, Russia, Impeachment nonsense -- so there's no need to speculate now. Time will tell.

JAYSLOL

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #49 on: February 02, 2020, 09:19:36 AM »

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

Of course it would have impacted me in my younger days.  As far as personal sense of security today though, no . . . increasing social security nets doesn't really do anything to make me feel more secure.


Yes, in the past it would have been amazing.


What derision are we talking about?  I believe that people should have a safety net, and am willing to pay to support one . . . even though I don't ever expect to have to use it.

My argument wasn't that giving people a sense of security is bad . . . but that needing a sense of security is certainly not the only driver for people to support social programs

FWIW, I paid off my mortgage years ago . . . doing that did increase my sense of security I suppose.

:P

The derision I was referring to was a mindset among some posters here (in general, not necessarily you) that champion security when it comes in the form of social safety nets, while deriding security when it comes in the form of paying down a mortgage. That seems at least a bit hypocritical to me. If you want others to have security through social safety nets, then it seems consistent to also support those who seek security through mortgage payoff. If you see mortgage payoff as a foolish and wasteful use of resources based on emotional desire for security, then wouldn't social safety nets also be wasting resources to satisfy an emotional need for security?

There's a strong theme of independence and DIY in the FIRE community. The "I" in FIRE literally stands for Independence. We invest for ourselves and avoid brokers. We fix our own stuff instead of throwing it away and buying new. We cook for ourselves, do our own taxes, etc, etc. We do this to attain freedom from social norms like debt slavery or working our lives away in a consumeristic lifestyle. How does that current of independence, self sufficiency and bucking social constructs coincide with a desire to give other people a sense of security through the largest social construct that we have (the Government)? These two outlooks seem to run counter to each other to a degree.

I donít see these as opposed views.  Iím working towards FIRE, and love to DIY stuff and believe in personal responsibility etc.  That doesnít mean I think sick people should just die because they canít afford healthcare.  Just because I wonít fall for scammy business practices from money lenders, or financial advisors or MLMs etc doesnít mean Iíd rather sit back and laugh at people that fall for them rather than actually have some regulations and protections in place for those who donít know better.  It wonít provide me a sense of security, but it would be a nicer world to be in.