I don't think the odds are as bad as people make it. In the end if you made money you win right. If you try some stocks there is a chance you will lose money. But there is a 100% chance that you will not get 1,800,000% (like Buffet) if you pick index.
But you are not Buffet Mr P... Is that what you say? Well I only need to be 1/10th of Buffet to really make serious gains over time.
If you like Buffet so much, and you want to copy his results.... why don't you try investing like he does?
I would say the odds aren't that bad if you are investing the way Buffet & Graham would tell you to. The problem is your investing style is basically the opposite of Buffet.
Buffet = lots of math
Mr P= "I must have extreme luck"
Buffet = look at valuations and company balance sheets
Mr P = it's a gift, I can't share it.
Buffet = buy and hold unless something substantially changes about the company's business
Mr P = "Some might think I'm a fool for flipping stock at a 4% gain but I don't."
Buffet = avoid 'hot' companies
Mr P = look at APPLE! Its up 25,000%!
Analogy: Your playing Soccer, you hate basketball, and you are saying your idol is Michael Jordan and you want to be just like Mike.
So...
If you are going to try to do what Buffet did... even 1/10 of it... try investing like him.
Or find someone to use as an example of a super investor who has an investing style similar to yours.
Or follow Buffet's advice which is buy an index fund.....