Author Topic: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation  (Read 243902 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1600 on: February 02, 2023, 02:20:52 PM »
I'd like to hear the nuanced view, if you don't mind.
I'll try it with as much controversy stripped out as possible.


I suspect the future looks brighter for Ethereum than it does for Bitcoin.  Ethereum has lowered its energy usage by 99.95% through switching how it allows transactions to be verified.  Most new things, which would be controversial to mention, are being done on Ethereum.  On Bitcoin's blockchain, they need an entirely new transaction system to be adopted and trusted.  Meanwhile, Ethereum has 4x higher transaction counts (the number, not cash value) than Bitcoin.

Younger generations have much greater numbers of people buying Bitcoin, and care about the environment in greater numbers.  Those beliefs are in conflict - holding both could be considered hypocrisy.  Maybe they can ignore that, or maybe that hypocrisy will drive many from BTC to ETH.

My view represents disagreement with both sides of the debate.  Crypto haters may cheer any dislike of Bitcoin - but they hate other crypto as well.  Most crypto fans like Bitcoin, the #1 crypto currency.  They can point to the CBOE options exchange of Bitcoin futures, or ETFs based on those futures - neither of which ETH has going for it.  Ethereum, viewed in terms of mainstream acceptance, is a step backwards from Bitcoin.

Since all of this adds up to thinking the future favors ETH and not BTC, I plan to hold zero BTC from here on.  I have been buying some ETH every week for the past few weeks, but it still represents a rounding error of my NW.  I do not expect Ethereum's "infinite supply" to matter, but if I'm wrong I'll lose in proportion to the % of ETH inflation.

The larger idea, that ETH overtakes BTC for the #1 spot by market cap, is captured in a new term I learned: "the flippening".  This link has only a brief description - it is mostly graphs tracking progress of ETH overtaking BTC in various ways.
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/flippening/

JAYSLOL

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1601 on: February 02, 2023, 02:41:39 PM »
Yes I’m not literally quoting you in particular.  Never said I was.  My problem is I hear people moving the goal posts of the rationalization for crypto.  So, if you want to clarify your opinions so I’m not misquoting or lumping you in with what I hear from a lot of crypto folks, I’d love to hear you (and also others) share beliefs on the following
- Is Bitcoin the cryptocurrency you are betting your own money on?  Why or why not?
- If Bitcoin is not what you bet your own money on, what crypto is?  And why?
You replied to my post, and then said things that had nothing to do with my post.  It would be clearer if you didn't do that in questions you address to everyone.

The recent discussion has devolved back to people who hate crypto repeatedly calling it a fraud or ponzi scheme, so I don't see the point of providing my nuanced view.  Instead I need to oversimplify and be brief to avoid being quoted out of context.  I am currently "adding a low%" (thread title) of ETH, but not "adding a low%" of BTC.

FWIW, my first reply was adding a comment to someone else’s post, which you replied to, so I replied back and expanded on why I added that comment, and even though I admittedly made some generalizations about things “crypto people” have said in my experience, it was never meant to be taken as me quoting you. 
I don’t actually hate the technology of crypto as a tool, but for the relatively weak benefits I see compared to its downsides, I don’t think it’s a good thing overall for society in its current form. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1602 on: February 02, 2023, 02:54:20 PM »
I'd like to hear the nuanced view, if you don't mind.
I'll try it with as much controversy stripped out as possible.


I suspect the future looks brighter for Ethereum than it does for Bitcoin.  Ethereum has lowered its energy usage by 99.95% through switching how it allows transactions to be verified.  Most new things, which would be controversial to mention, are being done on Ethereum.  On Bitcoin's blockchain, they need an entirely new transaction system to be adopted and trusted.  Meanwhile, Ethereum has 4x higher transaction counts (the number, not cash value) than Bitcoin.

Younger generations have much greater numbers of people buying Bitcoin, and care about the environment in greater numbers.  Those beliefs are in conflict - holding both could be considered hypocrisy.  Maybe they can ignore that, or maybe that hypocrisy will drive many from BTC to ETH.

My view represents disagreement with both sides of the debate.  Crypto haters may cheer any dislike of Bitcoin - but they hate other crypto as well.  Most crypto fans like Bitcoin, the #1 crypto currency.  They can point to the CBOE options exchange of Bitcoin futures, or ETFs based on those futures - neither of which ETH has going for it.  Ethereum, viewed in terms of mainstream acceptance, is a step backwards from Bitcoin.

Since all of this adds up to thinking the future favors ETH and not BTC, I plan to hold zero BTC from here on.  I have been buying some ETH every week for the past few weeks, but it still represents a rounding error of my NW.  I do not expect Ethereum's "infinite supply" to matter, but if I'm wrong I'll lose in proportion to the % of ETH inflation.

The larger idea, that ETH overtakes BTC for the #1 spot by market cap, is captured in a new term I learned: "the flippening".  This link has only a brief description - it is mostly graphs tracking progress of ETH overtaking BTC in various ways.
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/flippening/

I appreciate hearing the more nuanced view, and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if you were right about ETH taking #1 at some point because of many of the points you bring up, but I guess my original reservations stands that if people are willing to abandon BTC for ETH, then what’s to stop them from abandoning ETH for ??? down the line when something else comes in? 

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1603 on: February 02, 2023, 05:45:46 PM »
I didn't hear any even a half decent attempt to address the concerns of wallets and volatility in the video.  Mostly the volatility response was that the same volatility and devaluation of African currencies that she's hoping will drive people to bitcoin mean that the volatility of bitcoin doesn't matter.  ???

I did hear some total bullshit though.

Yep.  Bullshit - or 'demonstrably false' if cussing upsets delicate sensibilities.  Like this excerpt from the podcast:

"Interestingly, when you look at all the various forms of money that we use today whether it is cash or whether it is the Visa cards for example, Bitcoin consumes the least amount of energy of all of them.  In fact, the production of cash and the transportation of cash and the distribution of cash requires 30 times more energy than bitcoin does."

Which aligns rather poorly with reality:
Quote
BTC has nearly 3x environmental cost [than cash] per 1$ of value
https://sites.tufts.edu/digitalplanet/how-green-is-the-greenback-an-analysis-of-the-environmental-costs-of-cash-in-the-united-states/

Cash is currently higher in energy consumption overall , but that's only because bitcoin transactions are so comparatively rare.  The argument that bitcoin is lower energy cost than cash is therefore demonstrably bullshit false.


No sensibilities were harmed. I was borrowing your text as a sort of header to to my reply.

Yes, there were a couple of quite extreme and unsubstantiated statements re. energy. I'm not defending them. I've steered clear of most of the environmental discussions as the bs-factor looks extremely high on both sides. Bitcoin both eats the world and saves the world, and both sides have endless figures to prove it.
I've glanced at that article and it looks pretty measured. I'll read it properly later - thanks.

"[Bitcoin is] a currency that can be moved easily without creating any extra fees and constraints"

Then she goes on to indicate how there are no conversion fees changing from her currency (franc) to bitcoin [No she didn't - she said no such thing] because it's "free money, and independent currency, a currency that's not created specifically to control people".

Yes she does.  Direct quote:
"[Bitcoin is] um a currency that can uh be moved easily without creating any extra fees and constraints to the people because when you look at the countries that face the highest constraints on moving money is the African uh is it the people living in diaspora sending money back home because sometimes the remittance fees go as high as 20 percent consume 30 in both the fees and the uh um um the conversion rate.  So at that point I was like uh ah the person or the people who invested Bitcoin of [sic] having free money, having independent currency, a currency that is not created specifically by some people to control others."

She very explicitly talks about the horrors of currency conversion rates when transferring money from African currencies to other denominations to send through banks, and in the same breath talks about how there are no fees associated with Bitcoin.  The only conclusion one can reasonably draw from this is that she believes the fees for currency conversion do not exist for Bitcoin.  Or that she's intentionally trying to make the traditional banking system seem worse than it is in an effort to push bitcoin.

I took it in the context of people receiving Bitcoin remittances and then spending Bitcoin. No CFA conversion = no conversion fee.

She indicates that 70% of the people in her country do not have bank accounts, and thus would be perfect to convert over to using bitcoin.  But she completely glosses over the little point of exactly how to do this.  How are they going to convert their current cash holdings into bitcoin?  Can't transfer funds from their bank, obviously.  Later there's mention of magical technologies that will allow people without phone or computer access to easily and safely access bitcoin without risk. [No there's not - there's no mention of any such thing]  I'd like to hear a lot more about that though, since it sounds like bullshit but no further discussion involved that point.  Instead she just says that bitcoin is like internet and electricity.  And we leave it there.

"I actually forgot to mention one of the uh greatest products that was introduced at the conference is uh manchankura which is uh uh created by an uh amazing Bitcoin and uh developer we call him KG um it actually allows people to buy bitcoin as a USS USSD uh just like regular scratch cards where you can just type USSD codes and then boom you have the bitcoin in your wallet so in amazing solutions are being made and you're like wow this is so cool this is going to make it so much easier for everyone"

Yes, there is regular mention and misrepresentation* of technology that will safely and easily allow African people to access bitcoin.  That's the whole underpinning of how the person being interviewed describes the shift to bitcoin happening across the continent.

*It's the misrepresentation that makes the technology 'magical'.  Interesting that she fails to mention the 1% fee for anyone using this service.  Or the various hosting fees for moving bitcoin from a wallet to create a transaction.  Almost like there is a clear pro-bitcoin agenda being pushed.

My point was that she made no claims of 'without phone or computer access' technology.
Well no, she didn't mention the 1% charge, but it was a chat about new 'exciting' things that are happening. Was it a carefully calculated/cunning omission ? I think she was just more interested in describing how people, esp. Africans themselves, are creatively using technology to overcome the many barriers that exist in Africa.
They are both very clearly, explicitly and openly pro-Bitcoin - take it for what it is. Good luck finding much agenda-free stuff in this area.

She also doesn't address how the people who move their fortunes over to bitcoin are supposed to pay their taxes.  Or buy groceries.  Or buy anything, since bitcoin isn't commonly accepted anywhere in the country.  I guess the theory is that everyone will instantly switch over nationally? [No, there was no suggestion of immediate total adoption - people will still have fiat]

But then bitcoin would solve no problem at all.  All of the pie in the sky bitcoin related 'freedom' that is being discussed for African people being held hostage by their fiat currency fails to materialize if the people are still being held hostage by their fiat currency.

I just don't get this all or nothing theory. Her goal for Togo is displace the CFA, but not in one fell swoop - as you noted, how on earth would/could that work ?
A gradual transition seems perfectly logical and possible. Some people start to acquire Bitcoin. Some shops start to see value in accepting Bitcoin. More people start to acquire Bitcoin. More shops start to . . etc. And, gradually, the CFA is pushed aside.

I let it go in my first response, but I did have a laugh at your objection to an activist, who's been frightened out of her country by threats of violence from an oppressive government/military, not placing a high priority on paying taxes to said regime :-)

She also talks about how a huge problem for these African countries is that they can't pay their international debts.  They don't produce anything of value, so can't generate the money needed to pay their loans.  That's what's causing the devaluation of their currencies.  But she just ignores this completely in relation to bitcoin.  How does bitcoin fix these debts?  Well, it doesn't.  So the fundamental problem causing the poorness remains. [No. Nobody claimed Bitcoin was a panacea for ALL ills. What is ?]

I'm going to ignore your straw man here - I didn't claim that the person being interviewed made the statement you're railing against.

The ills that the person being interviewed was describing though, the ones that she was giving as an example of the need to push everyone towards bitcoin . . . those all stem from this fundamental problem.  And bitcoin won't solve it.  This renders a the majority of her pro-bitcoin argument moot.

Oops, it's a fair cop! Reprimand accepted.

I know very little about Togo and the CFA. Assuming what she says about the CFA is broadly true, then displacing it seems like a good step in the right direction.

She's super excited about getting Africa into the environmental destruction [No, not so] required to mine bitcoin [with sustainable solar and hydro, and bringing electricity to those that have never had it].

No mention of solar is made in this discussion.  I encourage you to go back and listen carefully.  Hydro electricity in Kenya is mentioned, as is 'bringing electricity to those who have never had it' . . . but zero mention of details or realistic plans to do this comes up, which seems to be a theme here, and part of the reason that it was so very disappointing to listen to.

Will bitcoin mining be done sustainably in Africa?  Maybe.  But no mention of how, why, the costs involved, the projects proposed to make this happen come up.  Will bitcoin mining result in electricity for poor people who couldn't afford it before?  Maybe?  But again, no discussion of any details/reasoning takes place.  Just the statement and expectance that we will all accept it like lemmings.  Not very convincing.

I thought I heard 'solar' but I'll take your word for it. It's struck out above.

I believe Gridless, or similar, is what she was referring to - and, yes, they are hydro-only.

Doesn't seem to be aware the mining bitcoin will end and is not a long term thing [No. Bitcoin rewards will end but 'mining' will continue].  She also (completely without evidence) says that bitcoin is much better for the environment than all other banking systems.

This is certainly an unproven theory that bitcoin advocates believe.

It's a bit more than that. Barring any major protocol changes (pretty unlikely), Bitcoin is stone dead without miners. Of course, post 21M, strictly speaking, they won't 'mining' new Bitcoins, they will just be confirming transactions.

With respect, the above post does not demonstrate intellectual curiosity and is in no way an attempt to argue in good faith.

I watched your video in good faith under the assumption that it was going to be relevant, factual, and informative.  Posting an hour and a half conversation between two people who appear to have little understanding of the topic being discussed and certainly no facts/data to support their theories is not an attempt to argue in good faith.

I don't think either of them have "little understanding". It was a reasonable discussion in it's own high level context. My reason for posting the video was simply to demonstrate that things are happening in the developing world and that local people are involved in driving it and developing it. I think it did that.

I get that you want to dig into the details and learn exactly how these grand plans are supposed to happen, but that's a different question. There's plenty of information out there.

It's very easy to construct strawmen or plain make stuff up but that's not intelligent discussion. It's little more than school playground name-calling.

Agreed.  Stop using straw men.  If you're going to post a video, maybe quickly check through the video first to see if it's sourced and referenced with claims made being reasonably supported rather than made up with no evidence.  That video was intellectually very disappointing with little factual information available to debate.

I've acknowledged my misdemeanour, and I'm hanging my head in shame.

As above, it was posted as part of a broad discussion about whether or not Bitcoin is taking root as a currency in developing nations.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1604 on: February 02, 2023, 06:58:04 PM »
- If Crypto is a technology and NOT a get rich scheme, why is there more emphasis on Bitcoin and other “investment” cryptocurrencies over the utility that stablecoins or other non-investment focused cryptocurrencies or blockchain technology could offer?

To be fair, there is tons (millions$$) of hype around various stablecoins as well! Most of which have failed hard, for various reasons. (Unless of course the goal is to funnel "investor" money to the pyramid-top persons starting the scheme, paying insta-celebs to hype it, faking assets, etc. In that case some of them have been successful.)
Just take a peek through coffeezilla's coverage of several of them. Hilarious stuff!
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=coffeezilla+stablecoin

Celsius: $9 billion owed/lost
Luna:  $60 billion lost
Tether/bitfinex: $10 billion lost (?unclear)
Titan; promised 206% APY! Pumped by Mark Cuban, lost all his investments (Ok, I can support this one *golfclap) https://youtu.be/9DjeS4hTltI

And, speaking for Bitcoin only . . .

The Bitcoin scene is quite heavy on Austrian Economics and is generally opposed to centrally controlled fiat currency debasement.

From that perspective, Bitcoin (decentralised, 21M) offers potential utility, but even the most rock-solid USD stablecoin offers zero utility.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:13:10 PM by LateStarter »

seattlecyclone

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1605 on: February 03, 2023, 12:21:48 PM »
My first Bitcoin transaction was in 2011. I read Satoshi Nakamoto's original paper and it seemed like an intriguing idea, so I decided to experiment a bit with it. At the time the Bitcoin Core wallet had a "mine Bitcoins" option you could click to have your CPU crank away at some hashes. If you got really lucky you could win 50 BTC. Even at the time that was kind of a fool's errand. I instead joined up with a mining pool with my relatively beefy CPU and earned some 0.02 BTC per day. After a few weeks of suffering degraded computer performance in exchange for <$1 (at the time) per day, I considered the experiment over and shut down the mining. I remember being able to put transactions on the chain in a relatively timely manner for no transaction fee because the capacity wasn't maxed out yet.

So...I'm not exactly a newcomer to this space. I acknowledge that there's been a bunch of infrastructure built up around the trading/speculating side of things since that time. Traction for use as an actual currency has been slow enough that I'm not at all bullish on the matter.
I asked "Did you know about Bitcoin 14 years ago?", not if you are "a newcomer" (your word).  My point is that when Bitcoin was unknown and unused 14 years ago, it was not realistic to expect things from it.  The price history of BTC on Yahoo Finance and even CoinDesk only goes back to Nov 2014, suggesting it still wasn't used much even then (Personally, I tried buying legal goods and services back at $250 per BTC, and found that very difficult).

I believe when Bitcoin rose above $10 billion or maybe $100 billion market cap, the mainstream media finally noticed.  Both of those milestones were about 5 years ago, which is why I argue Bitcoin should be measured relative to the last 5 years.  And if you agree with that, then 2 years doesn't seem that long (unless you're watching C-span).

Five years is an eternity when it comes to mass-market technology adoption. Five years after the iPhone came out I was in the minority by not having a smartphone. Five years after the Mac, most personal computers used a graphical interface. Five years after the introduction of the first consumer web browser, school children across the country routinely used the web as a tool for class projects.

That is, five years is an eternity when the technology is clearly better than what came before. Five years after the Kindle a lot of people still read paper books (and still do to this day) because the paperless experience seemed better to some and worse to others. The Kindle performs the same function as a paper book. Five years after the Tesla and people are still buying gasoline vehicles because at the end of the day an electric vehicle performs the same function as a gasoline vehicle. Same with VHS vs. Betamax: the two things perform the same function. People go with what's most convenient and cost-effective most of the time even if that means accepting a slightly lower level of quality.

So where are we with Bitcoin? Even if we grant that the first few years of its existence can be written off as a research project (similar to Xerox Alto as a precursor to the Mac, or Tim Berners-Lee's research browser as a precursor to Mosaic and Netscape), there has been plenty of time after widespread mainstream attention for people to adopt Bitcoin into their daily lives. The problem is Bitcoin largely still performs the same function as incumbent financial services, and it has the disadvantage of being slower and more expensive to use for most transactions.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1606 on: February 03, 2023, 08:49:18 PM »
...  My point is that when Bitcoin was unknown and unused 14 years ago, it was not realistic to expect things from it.  The price history of BTC on Yahoo Finance and even CoinDesk only goes back to Nov 2014, suggesting it still wasn't used much even then (Personally, I tried buying legal goods and services back at $250 per BTC, and found that very difficult).

I believe when Bitcoin rose above $10 billion or maybe $100 billion market cap, the mainstream media finally noticed.  Both of those milestones were about 5 years ago, which is why I argue Bitcoin should be measured relative to the last 5 years.  And if you agree with that, then 2 years doesn't seem that long (unless you're watching C-span).
Five years is an eternity when it comes to mass-market technology adoption. Five years after the iPhone came out I was in the minority by not having a smartphone. Five years after the Mac, most personal computers used a graphical interface. Five years after the introduction of the first consumer web browser, school children across the country routinely used the web as a tool for class projects.

That is, five years is an eternity when the technology is clearly better than what came before. Five years after the Kindle a lot of people still read paper books (and still do to this day) because the paperless experience seemed better to some and worse to others. The Kindle performs the same function as a paper book. Five years after the Tesla and people are still buying gasoline vehicles because at the end of the day an electric vehicle performs the same function as a gasoline vehicle. Same with VHS vs. Betamax: the two things perform the same function. People go with what's most convenient and cost-effective most of the time even if that means accepting a slightly lower level of quality.

So where are we with Bitcoin? Even if we grant that the first few years of its existence can be written off as a research project (similar to Xerox Alto as a precursor to the Mac, or Tim Berners-Lee's research browser as a precursor to Mosaic and Netscape), there has been plenty of time after widespread mainstream attention for people to adopt Bitcoin into their daily lives. The problem is Bitcoin largely still performs the same function as incumbent financial services, and it has the disadvantage of being slower and more expensive to use for most transactions.
Personally I agree with your main idea that Bitcoin largely performs the same function as it did 5 years ago.  Bitcoin fans will argue we should wait for the Lightning network - but that's an entirely new thing I have to trust, and has to go through the phases of adoption.  And maybe that's the problem with Bitcoin: it is stuck in an early phase of adoption, rather than "Crossing the Chasm" as a book on the topic once laid out.

And the year after releasing the Mac, Steve Jobs was pushed out of Apple, and the company began its slide downwards.  Within a decade, Apple was struggling, and I recall watching to see if it would go under (as a canary in a coal mine, where others would follow it).  Successful technology, but company at risk of collapse (before the 1990s bull market and iPhone).

Comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum, I argue Bitcoin is overvalued.  Ethereum has various innovations built on it (various coins, digital receipts of artwork, etc) while Bitcoin has stayed the same.  Ethereum performs more transactions, and has a lower market cap.  So Bitcoin could be overvalued while Ethereum might not be.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1607 on: February 04, 2023, 06:47:39 PM »
...  My point is that when Bitcoin was unknown and unused 14 years ago, it was not realistic to expect things from it.  The price history of BTC on Yahoo Finance and even CoinDesk only goes back to Nov 2014, suggesting it still wasn't used much even then (Personally, I tried buying legal goods and services back at $250 per BTC, and found that very difficult).

I believe when Bitcoin rose above $10 billion or maybe $100 billion market cap, the mainstream media finally noticed.  Both of those milestones were about 5 years ago, which is why I argue Bitcoin should be measured relative to the last 5 years.  And if you agree with that, then 2 years doesn't seem that long (unless you're watching C-span).
Five years is an eternity when it comes to mass-market technology adoption. Five years after the iPhone came out I was in the minority by not having a smartphone. Five years after the Mac, most personal computers used a graphical interface. Five years after the introduction of the first consumer web browser, school children across the country routinely used the web as a tool for class projects.

That is, five years is an eternity when the technology is clearly better than what came before. Five years after the Kindle a lot of people still read paper books (and still do to this day) because the paperless experience seemed better to some and worse to others. The Kindle performs the same function as a paper book. Five years after the Tesla and people are still buying gasoline vehicles because at the end of the day an electric vehicle performs the same function as a gasoline vehicle. Same with VHS vs. Betamax: the two things perform the same function. People go with what's most convenient and cost-effective most of the time even if that means accepting a slightly lower level of quality.

So where are we with Bitcoin? Even if we grant that the first few years of its existence can be written off as a research project (similar to Xerox Alto as a precursor to the Mac, or Tim Berners-Lee's research browser as a precursor to Mosaic and Netscape), there has been plenty of time after widespread mainstream attention for people to adopt Bitcoin into their daily lives. The problem is Bitcoin largely still performs the same function as incumbent financial services, and it has the disadvantage of being slower and more expensive to use for most transactions.
Personally I agree with your main idea that Bitcoin largely performs the same function as it did 5 years ago.  Bitcoin fans will argue we should wait for the Lightning network - but that's an entirely new thing I have to trust, and has to go through the phases of adoption.  And maybe that's the problem with Bitcoin: it is stuck in an early phase of adoption, rather than "Crossing the Chasm" as a book on the topic once laid out.

And the year after releasing the Mac, Steve Jobs was pushed out of Apple, and the company began its slide downwards.  Within a decade, Apple was struggling, and I recall watching to see if it would go under (as a canary in a coal mine, where others would follow it).  Successful technology, but company at risk of collapse (before the 1990s bull market and iPhone).

Comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum, I argue Bitcoin is overvalued.  Ethereum has various innovations built on it (various coins, digital receipts of artwork, etc) while Bitcoin has stayed the same.  Ethereum performs more transactions, and has a lower market cap.  So Bitcoin could be overvalued while Ethereum might not be.

Why is Bitcoin adoption slow, or slower than many think it should be ? Maybe . . .

In the wealthy world:

Main use-case now is speculation and/or store of value. Maybe in the future, a currency.

I think the issue is that Bitcoin is radically different to anything seen before. On first hearing about it, people are naturally very sceptical: a bunch of bits having value ? that's absurd ! And almost everything they hear is lurid (and largely true) tales about all the scams and frauds that are rife in the crypto world. It's not very attractive - the barrier to entry is high. Consequently, only a few take the trouble to learn about it.

Rough guess based on personal experience / anecdata:
<10% of people have some understanding of Bitcoin - the theory, the tech, the mission, etc.
>90% know virtually nothing about Bitcoin and just assume the entire space is all the same and is all just as terrible as they read/heard in the news headlines. Complacency and lethargy are not toooo damaging for wealthy folks - they continue to get by, so there's no great urgency for change.

The iphone was an impressive advance in technology, but it wasn't a paradigm shift. Most people immediately started salivating on first sighting a shiny iphone. It's not a good comparison.

In the poor world:

Main use-case now is currency and store of value. Maybe with a bit of savings, some speculation.

Bitcoin needs a Layer2, eg.  Lightning, to operate as a currency. Lightning is new, but it has now reached a stage where it can provide a useful service and things are beginning to happen.

There is, quite naturally, a keen and active grass roots interest in finding an alternative to a terrible fiat currency and/or terrible banking. Complacency is low, and motivation is high. Watch this space.

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1608 on: February 04, 2023, 07:18:54 PM »
I know a decent number of people who understand BtC just fine, but think it's a bad design and/or too volatile to ever work as a currency.

It's a shame, if it weren't for the weirdo libertarian/goldbug aspect of the design that limits the number of coins, it could potentially be great. But it's not well designed for being a currency, yet sucks all the oxygen out of the room for things that might actually work. A shame, really.

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1609 on: February 04, 2023, 10:23:30 PM »
...  My point is that when Bitcoin was unknown and unused 14 years ago, it was not realistic to expect things from it.  The price history of BTC on Yahoo Finance and even CoinDesk only goes back to Nov 2014, suggesting it still wasn't used much even then (Personally, I tried buying legal goods and services back at $250 per BTC, and found that very difficult).

I believe when Bitcoin rose above $10 billion or maybe $100 billion market cap, the mainstream media finally noticed.  Both of those milestones were about 5 years ago, which is why I argue Bitcoin should be measured relative to the last 5 years.  And if you agree with that, then 2 years doesn't seem that long (unless you're watching C-span).
Five years is an eternity when it comes to mass-market technology adoption. Five years after the iPhone came out I was in the minority by not having a smartphone. Five years after the Mac, most personal computers used a graphical interface. Five years after the introduction of the first consumer web browser, school children across the country routinely used the web as a tool for class projects.

That is, five years is an eternity when the technology is clearly better than what came before. Five years after the Kindle a lot of people still read paper books (and still do to this day) because the paperless experience seemed better to some and worse to others. The Kindle performs the same function as a paper book. Five years after the Tesla and people are still buying gasoline vehicles because at the end of the day an electric vehicle performs the same function as a gasoline vehicle. Same with VHS vs. Betamax: the two things perform the same function. People go with what's most convenient and cost-effective most of the time even if that means accepting a slightly lower level of quality.

So where are we with Bitcoin? Even if we grant that the first few years of its existence can be written off as a research project (similar to Xerox Alto as a precursor to the Mac, or Tim Berners-Lee's research browser as a precursor to Mosaic and Netscape), there has been plenty of time after widespread mainstream attention for people to adopt Bitcoin into their daily lives. The problem is Bitcoin largely still performs the same function as incumbent financial services, and it has the disadvantage of being slower and more expensive to use for most transactions.
Personally I agree with your main idea that Bitcoin largely performs the same function as it did 5 years ago.  Bitcoin fans will argue we should wait for the Lightning network - but that's an entirely new thing I have to trust, and has to go through the phases of adoption.  And maybe that's the problem with Bitcoin: it is stuck in an early phase of adoption, rather than "Crossing the Chasm" as a book on the topic once laid out.

And the year after releasing the Mac, Steve Jobs was pushed out of Apple, and the company began its slide downwards.  Within a decade, Apple was struggling, and I recall watching to see if it would go under (as a canary in a coal mine, where others would follow it).  Successful technology, but company at risk of collapse (before the 1990s bull market and iPhone).

Comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum, I argue Bitcoin is overvalued.  Ethereum has various innovations built on it (various coins, digital receipts of artwork, etc) while Bitcoin has stayed the same.  Ethereum performs more transactions, and has a lower market cap.  So Bitcoin could be overvalued while Ethereum might not be.
The iphone was an impressive advance in technology, but it wasn't a paradigm shift. Most people immediately started salivating on first sighting a shiny iphone. It's not a good comparison.

In the poor world:
Main use-case now is currency and store of value. Maybe with a bit of savings, some speculation.

Bitcoin needs a Layer2, eg.  Lightning, to operate as a currency. Lightning is new, but it has now reached a stage where it can provide a useful service and things are beginning to happen.
Your iPhone comment is strong enough to "trigger" me, partly because I strongly disagree with the statement, but also because I believe you're being reasonable and may listen.  The smart phone and internet are the largest paradigm shifts in the past 25 years.  Look at people on a bus 25 years ago and now - what do you see?  Cell phones.  Young people in school talking 25 years ago... now texting and sharing videos on their phones.  Smart phones, starting with the iPhone, have had an enormous impact and caused significant changes.  In case we're talking about different words, here is the first entry for paradigm:

Quote
1: EXAMPLE, PATTERN
especially : an outstandingly clear or typical example or archetype
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paradigm
 
We have some overlap in beliving Bitcoin can help countries with hyperinflation or repeated currency defaults.  Those are a subset of poor countries where a savings account in local currency may be higher risk than Bitcoin.  I think your effort is better spent getting others to agree with you that far, than convincing me further.  I'd consider myself in the 10% who have some understanding of Bitcoin, to save you some time.

Many years ago, the Bitcoin Core Team had a schism, with one member arguing for larger block sizes, and the others arguing to wait for a Lightning Network type solution.  The thing is, everyone in agreement on Lightning all worked for the same company that was developing Lighting!  So much for decentralized, when their salaries and stock options resulted in group think on the Bitcoin Core Team.  So I may not be the target audience for Lightning Network, as I felt larger block sizes were the answer (and given Bitcoin's ramp up, I was probably wrong, unless block sizes could be extended 1000x without it being unreasonable).

My past two posts both compare Ethereum to Bitcoin, because in my view Ethereum could have future potential while Bitcoin treads water.  I'm not aware of new coins on Bitcoin's blockchain, but I know that dozens (hundreds?) have been launched by borrowing from Ethereum's blockchain.  NFTs, controversial as they are, were launched on Ethereum's blockchain.  I'm less confident that DeFi has been partly based off Ethereum, and heard that DAO may use Ethereum.  Ethereum won't be involved in every single new effort, but it seems to be involved in most innovation attempts in crypto.  Add in proof of stake replacing proof of work, and I think there is a compelling argument that ETH should be valued more than BTC.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1610 on: February 06, 2023, 10:09:36 AM »
I have it, but a very small %

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1611 on: February 06, 2023, 04:04:58 PM »
I know a decent number of people who understand BtC just fine, but think it's a bad design and/or too volatile to ever work as a currency.

Absolutely. I wasn't conflating understanding with being a fan. Most posters in this topic are part of that 10% imo. [  They just don't understand it well enough yet  :-)  ]

It's a shame, if it weren't for the weirdo libertarian/goldbug aspect of the design that limits the number of coins, it could potentially be great. But it's not well designed for being a currency, yet sucks all the oxygen out of the room for things that might actually work. A shame, really.

-W

I think it's largely the 'weirdo libertarian/goldbug aspect' that has given Bitcoin the power it has attained. I'm confident that we'll see it working well as a currency soon enough. Time will tell.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1612 on: February 06, 2023, 04:37:40 PM »
...  My point is that when Bitcoin was unknown and unused 14 years ago, it was not realistic to expect things from it.  The price history of BTC on Yahoo Finance and even CoinDesk only goes back to Nov 2014, suggesting it still wasn't used much even then (Personally, I tried buying legal goods and services back at $250 per BTC, and found that very difficult).

I believe when Bitcoin rose above $10 billion or maybe $100 billion market cap, the mainstream media finally noticed.  Both of those milestones were about 5 years ago, which is why I argue Bitcoin should be measured relative to the last 5 years.  And if you agree with that, then 2 years doesn't seem that long (unless you're watching C-span).
Five years is an eternity when it comes to mass-market technology adoption. Five years after the iPhone came out I was in the minority by not having a smartphone. Five years after the Mac, most personal computers used a graphical interface. Five years after the introduction of the first consumer web browser, school children across the country routinely used the web as a tool for class projects.

That is, five years is an eternity when the technology is clearly better than what came before. Five years after the Kindle a lot of people still read paper books (and still do to this day) because the paperless experience seemed better to some and worse to others. The Kindle performs the same function as a paper book. Five years after the Tesla and people are still buying gasoline vehicles because at the end of the day an electric vehicle performs the same function as a gasoline vehicle. Same with VHS vs. Betamax: the two things perform the same function. People go with what's most convenient and cost-effective most of the time even if that means accepting a slightly lower level of quality.

So where are we with Bitcoin? Even if we grant that the first few years of its existence can be written off as a research project (similar to Xerox Alto as a precursor to the Mac, or Tim Berners-Lee's research browser as a precursor to Mosaic and Netscape), there has been plenty of time after widespread mainstream attention for people to adopt Bitcoin into their daily lives. The problem is Bitcoin largely still performs the same function as incumbent financial services, and it has the disadvantage of being slower and more expensive to use for most transactions.
Personally I agree with your main idea that Bitcoin largely performs the same function as it did 5 years ago.  Bitcoin fans will argue we should wait for the Lightning network - but that's an entirely new thing I have to trust, and has to go through the phases of adoption.  And maybe that's the problem with Bitcoin: it is stuck in an early phase of adoption, rather than "Crossing the Chasm" as a book on the topic once laid out.

And the year after releasing the Mac, Steve Jobs was pushed out of Apple, and the company began its slide downwards.  Within a decade, Apple was struggling, and I recall watching to see if it would go under (as a canary in a coal mine, where others would follow it).  Successful technology, but company at risk of collapse (before the 1990s bull market and iPhone).

Comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum, I argue Bitcoin is overvalued.  Ethereum has various innovations built on it (various coins, digital receipts of artwork, etc) while Bitcoin has stayed the same.  Ethereum performs more transactions, and has a lower market cap.  So Bitcoin could be overvalued while Ethereum might not be.
The iphone was an impressive advance in technology, but it wasn't a paradigm shift. Most people immediately started salivating on first sighting a shiny iphone. It's not a good comparison.

In the poor world:
Main use-case now is currency and store of value. Maybe with a bit of savings, some speculation.

Bitcoin needs a Layer2, eg.  Lightning, to operate as a currency. Lightning is new, but it has now reached a stage where it can provide a useful service and things are beginning to happen.
Your iPhone comment is strong enough to "trigger" me, partly because I strongly disagree with the statement, but also because I believe you're being reasonable and may listen.  The smart phone and internet are the largest paradigm shifts in the past 25 years.  Look at people on a bus 25 years ago and now - what do you see?  Cell phones.  Young people in school talking 25 years ago... now texting and sharing videos on their phones.  Smart phones, starting with the iPhone, have had an enormous impact and caused significant changes.  In case we're talking about different words, here is the first entry for paradigm:

Quote
1: EXAMPLE, PATTERN
especially : an outstandingly clear or typical example or archetype
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paradigm

We're speaking the same language but I still disagree with the specific iphone comparison. Many people already had mobile phones - the iphone was a 'just' a much better and sexier version of something we already had.

Maybe Bitcoin is better compared to the mobile phone in general. The first commercial 1G network was launched in 1979, and the iphone appeared in 2007. By that measure, 14 years in, we're currently in the clunky, simple, utilitarian Nokia 101 era, and the whizz-bang sexy iphone era won't start until 2037. I'm more optimistic about the pace of future progress than that, but that's a fairer comparison imo.


We have some overlap in beliving Bitcoin can help countries with hyperinflation or repeated currency defaults.  Those are a subset of poor countries where a savings account in local currency may be higher risk than Bitcoin.  I think your effort is better spent getting others to agree with you that far, than convincing me further.  I'd consider myself in the 10% who have some understanding of Bitcoin, to save you some time.

Ha - I have little expectation of converting any posters here. I like to challenge the posts I think are wrong, and I like to have my own views challenged.

Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

Many years ago, the Bitcoin Core Team had a schism, with one member arguing for larger block sizes, and the others arguing to wait for a Lightning Network type solution.  The thing is, everyone in agreement on Lightning all worked for the same company that was developing Lighting!  So much for decentralized, when their salaries and stock options resulted in group think on the Bitcoin Core Team.  So I may not be the target audience for Lightning Network, as I felt larger block sizes were the answer (and given Bitcoin's ramp up, I was probably wrong, unless block sizes could be extended 1000x without it being unreasonable).

My past two posts both compare Ethereum to Bitcoin, because in my view Ethereum could have future potential while Bitcoin treads water.  I'm not aware of new coins on Bitcoin's blockchain, but I know that dozens (hundreds?) have been launched by borrowing from Ethereum's blockchain.  NFTs, controversial as they are, were launched on Ethereum's blockchain.  I'm less confident that DeFi has been partly based off Ethereum, and heard that DAO may use Ethereum.  Ethereum won't be involved in every single new effort, but it seems to be involved in most innovation attempts in crypto.  Add in proof of stake replacing proof of work, and I think there is a compelling argument that ETH should be valued more than BTC.

All reasonable points, but I've come to the opposite conclusion. I value Bitcoin's proof of work solidity, the small block facilitated decentralisation, and the stubborn resistance to (much) change / additional complexity. Bitcoin's value (imo) is largely based on it's simple, sturdy and resilient foundation. Additional (L2, etc.) complexity belongs on top of that sturdy foundation, without compromising/risking it.

I was initially interested in Ethereum too but got turned away by it's centralised/centralising tendencies, especially the excessive influence of a small group of insiders and proof of stake. Also, a lot of risky fragile complexity at the base level.

Who knows though ? It'll be interesting to watch.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1613 on: February 06, 2023, 06:24:48 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1614 on: February 06, 2023, 07:27:31 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

@seattlecyclone, what in your view will likely cause 1 BTC to be worth more USD in a decade than it is now?

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1615 on: February 07, 2023, 01:08:38 AM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

@seattlecyclone, what in your view will likely cause 1 BTC to be worth more USD in a decade than it is now?

Continued speculation. Note that my definition of "reasonably likely" isn't ">50% probability," it's more a statement of "I would be mostly unsurprised if this happened." In my view, any fundamental changes in the utility of a Bitcoin token explain little (if any) of the price swings in recent years. Given prior history I would hesitate to make any bets against the ability of the hype machine to bring in a new round of "greater fools" to pump the price up again and again. That's why I consider it reasonably likely that the price will increase. I also think it's reasonably likely that the price will decrease. The price of a Bitcoin has previously been something that defies most logical analysis, and I expect this trend to continue.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1616 on: February 07, 2023, 04:16:53 AM »
LateStarter - Interesting, it does seem internet browsers existed on phones, so your point about iPhone makes more sense.  Maybe the iPhone interface drove adoption?  Worldwide, I believe iPhone currently has a fairly small market share of a very large market.  So definite mitigating factors in calling iPhone a paradigm shift, when "phones with internet browsers" might be a clumsy but more accurate term.

Also, did you forget to distort something or take it out of context?  :)  Thanks for not doing that - it is rare.

You take the opposite view on Bitcoin small block size, and I agree that does give Bitcoin stability.  You said "small block size drives decentralization", which I don't understand - maybe you could expand on that?

Five BTC mining pools account for 87.4% of the hashrate.  I speculate that the people in charge of each mining pool can make centralized decisions for Bitcoin, like which forks to accept.  Members of the mining pool need to be willing to switch if the pool makes a bad decision, and I suspect most people don't pay much attention and are not very involved.  So this may be where Bitcoin is centralized.  Last I checked, the Bitcoin core team & Lightning Network authors were the same small group of people.  Those are the areas where I argue Bitcoin has centralization.
https://btc.com/stats/pool

Ethereum has concentration of it's own from "proof of stake", with 64% of ETH staked by five entities.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/64-of-staked-eth-controlled-by-five-entities-nansen

I don't know which factors are associated with Bitcoin adoption, which in turn suggests which factors could drive Bitcoin growth of market cap.  One in your favor is age - younger people like Bitcoin more than older people.  As people grow up, they may stay loyal to Bitcoin, while younger people adopt it.  I speculate that hyperinflation + currency collapse increase Bitcoin adoption, and these factors are not likely to be big enough to drive growth.  There are likely other factors that I do not know about, and which could expand the discussion.  I also don't know the weight of each factor, which matters.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1617 on: February 07, 2023, 02:25:14 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

@seattlecyclone, what in your view will likely cause 1 BTC to be worth more USD in a decade than it is now?

Continued speculation. Note that my definition of "reasonably likely" isn't ">50% probability," it's more a statement of "I would be mostly unsurprised if this happened." In my view, any fundamental changes in the utility of a Bitcoin token explain little (if any) of the price swings in recent years. Given prior history I would hesitate to make any bets against the ability of the hype machine to bring in a new round of "greater fools" to pump the price up again and again. That's why I consider it reasonably likely that the price will increase. I also think it's reasonably likely that the price will decrease. The price of a Bitcoin has previously been something that defies most logical analysis, and I expect this trend to continue.
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things. Cryptocurrencies are patterns stored on a network of servers representing intangible brands, spread virally by social media and financial media. They are described as "greater fool" investments with mysterious origins, rampant fraud, underlying technical limitations, a future utility that is purely speculative, and a complete lack of progress toward that future utility.

That's my best elevator pitch to someone who just came out of a 10-year coma. It's 100% fuzziness and ambiguity.

We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty. It would be a very concrete conversation about known facts, predictable systems and results, tangible assets backing the securities, and potential causes that will have known effects. All we'd have to solve for was the future performance of the companies, which is a cakewalk compared to predicting the future of cryptocurrency and then finding a way to profit from that.

So why do we choose to talk/think about which way the dice will roll with cryptocurrencies when we could instead be attacking more tangible questions, and arguably be making a lot more progress generating investment plans?

My theories:

1) Because traditional financial assets are so concrete and tangible, we assume EMH applies and therefore we cannot have any advantage over the markets in valuing a stock or bond. If you cannot obtain an advantage, it makes sense to just B&H an index fund. However, if cryptocurrencies are an inefficient market, where information is not necessarily connected to the price, then perhaps - people think - they can obtain a competitive advantage in this market. It is rarely made clear what the hypothetical advantage would be though.

2) Bitcoin had a run a long time ago (when markets were thin and public awareness was nil) where it gained thousands of percent in value, so people think that is possible again. There are few other imaginable investments other than lotto tickets where we can imagine that being possible. So people are multiplying infinitesimal odds against astronomical possibilities and arriving at a positive probability-weighted estimate. This is, of course, the extrapolation fallacy riding on the back of the performance-chasing fallacy. Instead of multiplying 1% odds against 5,000% returns, people should be considering how the possibility of a cryptocurrency functioning like a real currency declines every day that passes without expanded adoption for transactions.

3) Human attention is captured by little bits of unexpected illogic, and so the illogical behavior of other people bidding up cryptocoins grabs our attention in a way that 9% yields on Bed Bath & Beyond bonds do not. The bond investor is making a risk/reward tradeoff based on their assessment of likely outcomes, incorporating all available information, but WTF is the cryptocurrency buyer doing? It's a mystery, and we love mysteries, so we cannot stop thinking about it. This is related to Cunningham's Law and the observation that TikTok content creators are intentionally inserting misspellings, mispronunciations, and factual errors into their videos because doing so increases engagement. The second article describes a surgeon who erroneously said a victim of a shotgun blast was suffering from buckshot when in fact it was bird shot. Thousands of people came out of nowhere to correct the doctor over and over again. The video went viral because it contained an error, which allowed people to be smarter than a doctor and show that they know something.  Maybe cryptocurrency was a meme intentionally or unintentionally designed to be talked about on the internet, with enough ambiguity so there is an argument on both sides, and plenty of reasons to make everyone feel like they're the smart ones correcting those who are wrong on the internet.

I'm not adding a "low% of crypto" because none of these three possibilities make crypo assets a good investment. #1 is without basis, #2 is fallacious, and #3 suggests the crypto meme is a mind-virus, hacking our innate desire to make sense of our world to produce more engagement and propagation of itself. I'll stick to value-creating investments and US dollars.


LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1618 on: February 07, 2023, 04:43:16 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

Not really - I don't think the 2 things can be completely separated. A useful currency must have some utility as a store-of-value to be of any practical use - otherwise you have to run to the store with your wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks while they can still pay for your groceries.

Your point seems to be that Bitcoin is not a good currency today because it is volatile. I agree.

My point was that I expect that volatility to decrease and other aspects also to improve, thus Bitcoin will progressively become a better currency over time.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1619 on: February 07, 2023, 05:32:02 PM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1620 on: February 07, 2023, 05:37:46 PM »
LateStarter - Interesting, it does seem internet browsers existed on phones, so your point about iPhone makes more sense.  Maybe the iPhone interface drove adoption?  Worldwide, I believe iPhone currently has a fairly small market share of a very large market.  So definite mitigating factors in calling iPhone a paradigm shift, when "phones with internet browsers" might be a clumsy but more accurate term.

Also, did you forget to distort something or take it out of context?  :)  Thanks for not doing that - it is rare.

Right back at you :-)

You take the opposite view on Bitcoin small block size, and I agree that does give Bitcoin stability.  You said "small block size drives decentralization", which I don't understand - maybe you could expand on that?

One of the arguments against large blocks was that they make full nodes more expensive to operate - so fewer full nodes would exist.

Five BTC mining pools account for 87.4% of the hashrate.  I speculate that the people in charge of each mining pool can make centralized decisions for Bitcoin, like which forks to accept.  Members of the mining pool need to be willing to switch if the pool makes a bad decision, and I suspect most people don't pay much attention and are not very involved.  So this may be where Bitcoin is centralized.  Last I checked, the Bitcoin core team & Lightning Network authors were the same small group of people.  Those are the areas where I argue Bitcoin has centralization.
https://btc.com/stats/pool

Possibly. I don't know enough about it to comment in detail. It's on my ToDo list.

Ethereum has concentration of it's own from "proof of stake", with 64% of ETH staked by five entities.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/64-of-staked-eth-controlled-by-five-entities-nansen

I don't know which factors are associated with Bitcoin adoption, which in turn suggests which factors could drive Bitcoin growth of market cap.  One in your favor is age - younger people like Bitcoin more than older people.  As people grow up, they may stay loyal to Bitcoin, while younger people adopt it.  I speculate that hyperinflation + currency collapse increase Bitcoin adoption, and these factors are not likely to be big enough to drive growth.  There are likely other factors that I do not know about, and which could expand the discussion.  I also don't know the weight of each factor, which matters.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1621 on: February 07, 2023, 10:02:22 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

Not really - I don't think the 2 things can be completely separated. A useful currency must have some utility as a store-of-value to be of any practical use - otherwise you have to run to the store with your wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks while they can still pay for your groceries.

Sure. USD is a fine store of value in the short to medium term. I know my dollars will be worth basically the same amount in a month as they are worth today. I know my dollars will be worth slightly less in a year than they are worth today, and a bit less than that a year after that. This slow inflation does give me an incentive to not own very many dollars for the long run, and to instead invest most of my capital into productive assets. Seems like a good thing to me.

Compare to Bitcoin where I don't know it will be worth basically the same amount in a month as it's worth today, and predicting what it will be worth even a year out is a fool's errand.

Quote
My point was that I expect that volatility to decrease...

Why? What do you believe is driving Bitcoin's high volatility today, and what evidence do you have that these forces will subside in time?

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1622 on: February 08, 2023, 08:06:19 AM »
A decrease in volatility would require speculation to basically cease, right?

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1623 on: February 08, 2023, 09:30:20 AM »
A decrease in volatility would require speculation to basically cease, right?

-W

Lack of speculation would force bitcoin to fall back on it's utility value - zero (or near zero).

simonsez

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1624 on: February 08, 2023, 10:27:03 AM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.
I took it to mean in a general sociologically-curious context of what humans like to chat about (i.e. all of society with its possible modes of communications, not limited to one thread on the MMM forum) - NOT meaning "why are people continuing to talk about crypto in this specific crypto thread".

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1625 on: February 08, 2023, 10:30:40 AM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.
I took it to mean in a general sociologically-curious context of what humans like to chat about (i.e. all of society with its possible modes of communications, not limited to one thread on the MMM forum) - NOT meaning "why are people continuing to talk about crypto in this specific crypto thread".
Correct @simonsez . I failed to more clearly define the "we".

YttriumNitrate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1626 on: February 08, 2023, 10:47:20 AM »
A decrease in volatility would require speculation to basically cease, right? -W
Much like traditional currencies, with enough leverage the speculation could continue. When 100x+ leverage is common in USD/EUR to Bitcoin trades, it'll be a good sign that Bitcoin has become a legitimate currency.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1627 on: February 08, 2023, 02:44:51 PM »
Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

Not really - I don't think the 2 things can be completely separated. A useful currency must have some utility as a store-of-value to be of any practical use - otherwise you have to run to the store with your wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks while they can still pay for your groceries.

Sure. USD is a fine store of value in the short to medium term. I know my dollars will be worth basically the same amount in a month as they are worth today. I know my dollars will be worth slightly less in a year than they are worth today, and a bit less than that a year after that. This slow inflation does give me an incentive to not own very many dollars for the long run, and to instead invest most of my capital into productive assets. Seems like a good thing to me.

Compare to Bitcoin where I don't know it will be worth basically the same amount in a month as it's worth today, and predicting what it will be worth even a year out is a fool's errand.

Once again:
Your point seems to be that Bitcoin is not a good currency today because it is volatile. I agree.

I'm less enthusiastic about the 'benefits' of inflation, but that's a bit too much of a sidetrack here.

My point was that I expect that volatility to decrease...

Why? What do you believe is driving Bitcoin's high volatility today, and what evidence do you have that these forces will subside in time?

It's still very speculative and attracts traders hopping in and out with leverage, etc. Also, there's been plenty of hot fresh money about in recent years.

Greater adoption. Broader, more diverse adoption. Lightning/currency adoption. Institutional investment. Technology developments breaking barriers and adding further encouragement to all adoption. etc.

I have no evidence to prove that these things will happen - it's just my expectation. However, if they do happen, a bigger/broader Bitcoin is very likely to be less volatile. I'm not holding my breath - it'll be a while.

seattlecyclone

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1628 on: February 08, 2023, 03:21:34 PM »
Not really - I don't think the 2 things can be completely separated. A useful currency must have some utility as a store-of-value to be of any practical use - otherwise you have to run to the store with your wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks while they can still pay for your groceries.

Sure. USD is a fine store of value in the short to medium term. I know my dollars will be worth basically the same amount in a month as they are worth today. I know my dollars will be worth slightly less in a year than they are worth today, and a bit less than that a year after that. This slow inflation does give me an incentive to not own very many dollars for the long run, and to instead invest most of my capital into productive assets. Seems like a good thing to me.

Compare to Bitcoin where I don't know it will be worth basically the same amount in a month as it's worth today, and predicting what it will be worth even a year out is a fool's errand.

Once again:
Your point seems to be that Bitcoin is not a good currency today because it is volatile. I agree.

I'm less enthusiastic about the 'benefits' of inflation, but that's a bit too much of a sidetrack here.

What I'm saying is that USD is currently a better store of value than Bitcoin. If I had put money into BTC a year ago, only half of that value would have been stored to the present moment. If I had kept it in cash over 90% of the value would have been stored. Will BTC be a better long-term store of value than USD? Maybe, maybe not. Way too soon to tell. It's not like gold that has thousands of years of history of being broadly valued across the human population.

As to the benefits of inflation, a deflationary monetary policy encourages people to hoard their currency and delay most economic activity as long as possible because stuff will be cheaper tomorrow than today. Hyperinflation is really bad. Everyone can agree on that. Deflation isn't much better. Slow inflation isn't amazing, but it's better than the alternatives. Bitcoin's choice to be purposefully deflationary was just that: a choice, and not a particularly good one IMO.

Quote
My point was that I expect that volatility to decrease...

Why? What do you believe is driving Bitcoin's high volatility today, and what evidence do you have that these forces will subside in time?

It's still very speculative and attracts traders hopping in and out with leverage, etc. Also, there's been plenty of hot fresh money about in recent years.

Greater adoption. Broader, more diverse adoption. Lightning/currency adoption. Institutional investment. Technology developments breaking barriers and adding further encouragement to all adoption. etc.

I have no evidence to prove that these things will happen - it's just my expectation. However, if they do happen, a bigger/broader Bitcoin is very likely to be less volatile. I'm not holding my breath - it'll be a while.

You seem to be asserting that Bitcoin will become less volatile, and in fact stable enough to be useful as a currency, as more people use and invest in it. It's not intuitively obvious to me that this would be the case. Bunches of people invest in the stock market and VTSAX is nowhere near stable enough to be a good backing for a currency. How has the volatility been trending over recent years as usage and investment has increased? Has it even been trending downward at all?

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1629 on: February 08, 2023, 04:25:38 PM »
Yeah, it's not clear to me either how more people investing in bitcoin would stabilize it in any way. The stock market has far more participants than BtC and it's not particularly stable.

BtC could have been designed to have a very slowly growing supply of coins, or a supply of coins designed to stay stable in relation to some basket of real world goods, which would have made it less attractive to hoard and more attractive to use for exchange. I am still baffled by the decision to design it with a fixed supply of coins.

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1630 on: February 08, 2023, 07:19:25 PM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.
I took it to mean in a general sociologically-curious context of what humans like to chat about (i.e. all of society with its possible modes of communications, not limited to one thread on the MMM forum) - NOT meaning "why are people continuing to talk about crypto in this specific crypto thread".
Correct @simonsez . I failed to more clearly define the "we".
If you agree that is off topic for this thread, then my point remains that this should be posted somewhere else rather than in a thread focused on crypto.

And in a more general way, many people post in this thread who hate crypto, want to post their hate of crypto, and do not check that the same things have been brought up before.  Those posts, to me, are further evidence people post here just because the thread draws their attention, and not because they want to contribute.  Which is why I suggested it be sticky, and easier to ignore.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/make-crypto-thread-sticky-(investor-alley)/

Scandium

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1631 on: February 09, 2023, 07:45:36 AM »
Yeah, it's not clear to me either how more people investing in bitcoin would stabilize it in any way. The stock market has far more participants than BtC and it's not particularly stable.

BtC could have been designed to have a very slowly growing supply of coins, or a supply of coins designed to stay stable in relation to some basket of real world goods, which would have made it less attractive to hoard and more attractive to use for exchange. I am still baffled by the decision to design it with a fixed supply of coins.

-W

My guess is because it was designed by/for gold-standard enthusiasts.

JAYSLOL

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1632 on: February 09, 2023, 10:48:00 AM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.
I took it to mean in a general sociologically-curious context of what humans like to chat about (i.e. all of society with its possible modes of communications, not limited to one thread on the MMM forum) - NOT meaning "why are people continuing to talk about crypto in this specific crypto thread".
Correct @simonsez . I failed to more clearly define the "we".
If you agree that is off topic for this thread, then my point remains that this should be posted somewhere else rather than in a thread focused on crypto.

And in a more general way, many people post in this thread who hate crypto, want to post their hate of crypto, and do not check that the same things have been brought up before.  Those posts, to me, are further evidence people post here just because the thread draws their attention, and not because they want to contribute.  Which is why I suggested it be sticky, and easier to ignore.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/make-crypto-thread-sticky-(investor-alley)/

So… should crypto enthusiasts also not be able to post anything in support of crypto that has been posted already?  Or that rule only applies to those you disagree with?

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1633 on: February 09, 2023, 12:54:34 PM »
Not really - I don't think the 2 things can be completely separated. A useful currency must have some utility as a store-of-value to be of any practical use - otherwise you have to run to the store with your wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks while they can still pay for your groceries.

Sure. USD is a fine store of value in the short to medium term. I know my dollars will be worth basically the same amount in a month as they are worth today. I know my dollars will be worth slightly less in a year than they are worth today, and a bit less than that a year after that. This slow inflation does give me an incentive to not own very many dollars for the long run, and to instead invest most of my capital into productive assets. Seems like a good thing to me.

Compare to Bitcoin where I don't know it will be worth basically the same amount in a month as it's worth today, and predicting what it will be worth even a year out is a fool's errand.

Once again:
Your point seems to be that Bitcoin is not a good currency today because it is volatile. I agree.

I'm less enthusiastic about the 'benefits' of inflation, but that's a bit too much of a sidetrack here.

What I'm saying is that USD is currently a better store of value than Bitcoin. If I had put money into BTC a year ago, only half of that value would have been stored to the present moment. If I had kept it in cash over 90% of the value would have been stored. Will BTC be a better long-term store of value than USD? Maybe, maybe not. Way too soon to tell. It's not like gold that has thousands of years of history of being broadly valued across the human population.

Over the past year ? Yes. What about the past month ? Or the past 3 years or 4 years or 6 years or whatever. You've focused on a specific interval that suits your argument and disregarded all others. That proves nothing, other than confirmation bias.

Just about everyone in Bitcoin has said for a long while: if you're thinking in terms of <4 years, you're in for a rough ride.

As to the benefits of inflation, a deflationary monetary policy encourages people to hoard their currency and delay most economic activity as long as possible because stuff will be cheaper tomorrow than today. Hyperinflation is really bad. Everyone can agree on that. Deflation isn't much better. Slow inflation isn't amazing, but it's better than the alternatives. Bitcoin's choice to be purposefully deflationary was just that: a choice, and not a particularly good one IMO.

Bitcoin was designed to be disinflationary - not deflationary. In practise, lost coins will make it mildly deflationary.

It's not been discussed in depth and I haven't scoured the world's libraries looking for it, but I've yet to see good evidence of this bad deflation scenario. The examples usually quoted are, eg. 1930's, ie. deflationary contractions following periods of irrational exuberance, eg. roaring 20's. The deflation is part of the bitter medicine in these cases - It's not the cause of the pain, it's part of the cure.

Granted, a mildly deflationary world might make people/businesses more careful with money, but is that necessarily a bad thing ? In terms of business, investment and broad economic activity, it would only raise the bar. Good investments will still be good investments, mediocre investments might become poor investments, it should further discourage malinvestment.
At a personal level, a longer-term frugal-minded outlook, less excessive spending, less rampant consumerism, etc. all sounds pretty Mustachian and environmentally-friendly to me.

Also, would people actually delay purchases to any significant degree in practise ? Evidence ?
People commonly choose to pay car+loanInterest now rather than delay, save and pay car-savingsInterest later. There's an easy 15%pa(?) 'deflationary' win on offer, but people don't/can't wait.

My point was that I expect that volatility to decrease...
Why? What do you believe is driving Bitcoin's high volatility today, and what evidence do you have that these forces will subside in time?

It's still very speculative and attracts traders hopping in and out with leverage, etc. Also, there's been plenty of hot fresh money about in recent years.

Greater adoption. Broader, more diverse adoption. Lightning/currency adoption. Institutional investment. Technology developments breaking barriers and adding further encouragement to all adoption. etc.

I have no evidence to prove that these things will happen - it's just my expectation. However, if they do happen, a bigger/broader Bitcoin is very likely to be less volatile. I'm not holding my breath - it'll be a while.

You seem to be asserting that Bitcoin will become less volatile, and in fact stable enough to be useful as a currency, as more people use and invest in it. It's not intuitively obvious to me that this would be the case. Bunches of people invest in the stock market and VTSAX is nowhere near stable enough to be a good backing for a currency. How has the volatility been trending over recent years as usage and investment has increased? Has it even been trending downward at all?

Why is the SP500 less volatile than a penny stock ? It's the size, value, number of participants, different goals/timescales of those participants, etc. Most buys/sells are just swallowed up - relatively speaking.

Do you think there are no fiat currencies more volatile than VTSAX ?

Bitcoin volatility indicators, BVIN and BVOL both seem to show a broad/slow reduction in volatility. Make of that what you will. I'm not concluding much from it - the charts are a bit all over the place.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1634 on: February 09, 2023, 01:16:55 PM »
Why is the SP500 less volatile than a penny stock ? It's the size, value, number of participants, different goals/timescales of those participants, etc.

The companies in the S&P are cut loose if they have less than a 13 billion dollar market cap, less than a quarter million trades in the past six months, and have negative earnings over four quarters.

That alone helps an awful lot with volatility.  You get a broad collection of different companies where much of the chaff is cut away and newer strong companies are regularly added.

Seems like that would tend to significantly reduce swings when compared with an 'all our eggs in one basket' approach of betting on any individual cryptocurrency.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1635 on: February 09, 2023, 02:10:45 PM »
Why is the SP500 less volatile than a penny stock ? It's the size, value, number of participants, different goals/timescales of those participants, etc.

The companies in the S&P are cut loose if they have less than a 13 billion dollar market cap, less than a quarter million trades in the past six months, and have negative earnings over four quarters.

That alone helps an awful lot with volatility.  You get a broad collection of different companies where much of the chaff is cut away and newer strong companies are regularly added.

Seems like that would tend to significantly reduce swings when compared with an 'all our eggs in one basket' approach of betting on any individual cryptocurrency.

Fair point, comparing an index to an individual company was careless.

The point I intended to convey was: small cap stocks tend to be more volatile than large cap stocks  - for the same reasons in given my original post.

seattlecyclone

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1636 on: February 09, 2023, 07:27:57 PM »
What I'm saying is that USD is currently a better store of value than Bitcoin. If I had put money into BTC a year ago, only half of that value would have been stored to the present moment. If I had kept it in cash over 90% of the value would have been stored. Will BTC be a better long-term store of value than USD? Maybe, maybe not. Way too soon to tell. It's not like gold that has thousands of years of history of being broadly valued across the human population.

Over the past year ? Yes. What about the past month ? Or the past 3 years or 4 years or 6 years or whatever. You've focused on a specific interval that suits your argument and disregarded all others. That proves nothing, other than confirmation bias.

Just about everyone in Bitcoin has said for a long while: if you're thinking in terms of <4 years, you're in for a rough ride.

When I think of the term "store of value" I understand that concept to be all about mitigating downsides; upsides are pretty irrelevant. Stock in an early stage tech startup may be a good investment because it has a chance of multiplying many times in value, but it's a terrible store of value because it's more likely than not to go to zero within a decade.

Time period factors into it as well. A dollar is a great store of value when you're looking at time periods of months or even a few years. You might lose a few percent every year, but if your time horizon is a small number of years the assurance you'll get most of your value back out can be worth it. By comparison, Bitcoin is a terrible store of value in the months-to-years range. It swings all over the place. "Rough ride" and "good store of value" are rarely synonymous.

Expand the time period out to decades and USD is a bad store of value indeed. Pretty much any diversified investment will work better for this purpose. Will Bitcoin be a better store of value than USD if your time horizon is 10-50 years? There's much too little historical data to have any confidence in that.

Quote
You seem to be asserting that Bitcoin will become less volatile, and in fact stable enough to be useful as a currency, as more people use and invest in it. It's not intuitively obvious to me that this would be the case. Bunches of people invest in the stock market and VTSAX is nowhere near stable enough to be a good backing for a currency. How has the volatility been trending over recent years as usage and investment has increased? Has it even been trending downward at all?

Why is the SP500 less volatile than a penny stock ? It's the size, value, number of participants, different goals/timescales of those participants, etc. Most buys/sells are just swallowed up - relatively speaking.

Diversification and high market cap and high trading volume and active removal of destabilizing companies all factor into the S&P 500's relatively lower volatility. But even with a market cap 100x what Bitcoin has, the S&P 500 is way too volatile to use as a currency.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1637 on: February 10, 2023, 05:53:24 AM »
...
This whole conversation makes me think about why we gravitate to this particular subject rather than to far more concrete things.
...
We could instead be talking about junk bonds or pharmaceutical micro-cap stocks and cut out 99% of the uncertainty.
You don't understand why people talk about crypto in the thread dedicated to talking about crypto?

It sounds like you want to ignore crypto, but can't ignore this thread.  Maybe when this thread rises to the top, and people see it, that draws their attention.  A better solution might be a sticky crypto thread, so people can more easily ignore it if they choose.
I took it to mean in a general sociologically-curious context of what humans like to chat about (i.e. all of society with its possible modes of communications, not limited to one thread on the MMM forum) - NOT meaning "why are people continuing to talk about crypto in this specific crypto thread".
Correct @simonsez . I failed to more clearly define the "we".
If you agree that is off topic for this thread, then my point remains that this should be posted somewhere else rather than in a thread focused on crypto.

And in a more general way, many people post in this thread who hate crypto, want to post their hate of crypto, and do not check that the same things have been brought up before.  Those posts, to me, are further evidence people post here just because the thread draws their attention, and not because they want to contribute.  Which is why I suggested it be sticky, and easier to ignore.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/make-crypto-thread-sticky-(investor-alley)/
So… should crypto enthusiasts also not be able to post anything in support of crypto that has been posted already?  Or that rule only applies to those you disagree with?
You said "not be able to post", I didn't.  I did not bring up a "rule", so "that rule" refers to something you just invented to argue against.  Quote where I said it.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1638 on: February 12, 2023, 12:55:18 PM »
What I'm saying is that USD is currently a better store of value than Bitcoin. If I had put money into BTC a year ago, only half of that value would have been stored to the present moment. If I had kept it in cash over 90% of the value would have been stored. Will BTC be a better long-term store of value than USD? Maybe, maybe not. Way too soon to tell. It's not like gold that has thousands of years of history of being broadly valued across the human population.

Over the past year ? Yes. What about the past month ? Or the past 3 years or 4 years or 6 years or whatever. You've focused on a specific interval that suits your argument and disregarded all others. That proves nothing, other than confirmation bias.

Just about everyone in Bitcoin has said for a long while: if you're thinking in terms of <4 years, you're in for a rough ride.

When I think of the term "store of value" I understand that concept to be all about mitigating downsides; upsides are pretty irrelevant. Stock in an early stage tech startup may be a good investment because it has a chance of multiplying many times in value, but it's a terrible store of value because it's more likely than not to go to zero within a decade.

Time period factors into it as well. A dollar is a great store of value when you're looking at time periods of months or even a few years. You might lose a few percent every year, but if your time horizon is a small number of years the assurance you'll get most of your value back out can be worth it. By comparison, Bitcoin is a terrible store of value in the months-to-years range. It swings all over the place. "Rough ride" and "good store of value" are rarely synonymous.

Expand the time period out to decades and USD is a bad store of value indeed. Pretty much any diversified investment will work better for this purpose. Will Bitcoin be a better store of value than USD if your time horizon is 10-50 years? There's much too little historical data to have any confidence in that.

This discussion has wandered off track - so bringing it back:

My original point you responded to:
  • Back to your point though, and I'm repeating myself, my expectation is that with time Bitcoin gets better (more established, less volatile and thus less risky) and most fiats get worse (more debased). If I'm right, the Bitcoin line on the 'useful as currency vs time' chart will progressively cross the lines of the fiats. Bolivar today, Peso next year, Dinar in 8 years, USD well maybe never but you get my point.

    I think you're conflating two separate concepts: utility as a currency and utility as an investment. For what it's worth, I think it's reasonably likely that 1 BTC will be worth more USD in a decade than it is now. So what? That has no bearing on how useful BTC is as a currency relative to USD. A useful currency is one in which the value is relatively stable over time (so that people can set their prices and sign contracts in terms of that currency), and one in which transactions can be completed simply and quickly. BTC is way too volatile. Even if the Lightning network solves the transaction cost/speed problem, nobody's going to sign a contract denominated in a currency whose purchasing power regularly swings back and forth 3x over the course of a year.

My point was that Bitcoin, today, is probably a better currency than the norm in some of the toughest countries - with poor fiats and poor banking, etc.
I'm not comparing Bitcoin today to USD today. I explicitly said, for use as a currency, that Bitcoin will replace the "USD well maybe never".

So has this and the point below addressed your disagreements with my post above ?

I'm happy to discuss the broader, general aspects of Bitcoin as store of value vs USD, etc. but it would nice to wrap up one thing before moving on to the next.

You seem to be asserting that Bitcoin will become less volatile, and in fact stable enough to be useful as a currency, as more people use and invest in it. It's not intuitively obvious to me that this would be the case. Bunches of people invest in the stock market and VTSAX is nowhere near stable enough to be a good backing for a currency. How has the volatility been trending over recent years as usage and investment has increased? Has it even been trending downward at all?

Why is the SP500 less volatile than a penny stock ? It's the size, value, number of participants, different goals/timescales of those participants, etc. Most buys/sells are just swallowed up - relatively speaking.

Diversification and high market cap and high trading volume and active removal of destabilizing companies all factor into the S&P 500's relatively lower volatility. But even with a market cap 100x what Bitcoin has, the S&P 500 is way too volatile to use as a currency.

copy of my response to GuitarStv:

Fair point, comparing an index to an individual company was careless.

The point I intended to convey was: small cap stocks tend to be more volatile than large cap stocks  - for the same reasons in given my original post.

seattlecyclone

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1639 on: February 12, 2023, 03:55:26 PM »
Sure, there probably exist a handful of minor national currencies that are more volatile than Bitcoin. That's a pretty low bar. People living in such countries often use other means of exchange, like when Zimbabwe's currency hyperinflated they started using foreign currencies (including US dollars and the rand from neighboring South Africa) instead. So yeah in such a situation people would definitely be open to using a currency other than the one their own government sponsors, but when that happens they tend to pick major currencies, not one that is only marginally more stable than the one they recently abandoned.

okonumiyaki

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1640 on: February 18, 2023, 01:42:37 AM »
Re "The government can't take your bitcoin" and "hold in cold storage"

Doesn't help.   Most governments will know what a bitcoin wallet looks like.  (and, at a guess, in Tate's case it looks a lot like money laundering.  I am thinking that unless he can show the BTC are squeaky clean, and all taxes paid on the income they represent, they won't be his BTC for much longer)

https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/police-seized-nearly-dollar500000-in-btc-from-andrew-and-tristan-tate

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1641 on: February 18, 2023, 02:47:12 AM »
Re "The government can't take your bitcoin" and "hold in cold storage"

Doesn't help.   Most governments will know what a bitcoin wallet looks like.  (and, at a guess, in Tate's case it looks a lot like money laundering.  I am thinking that unless he can show the BTC are squeaky clean, and all taxes paid on the income they represent, they won't be his BTC for much longer)

https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/police-seized-nearly-dollar500000-in-btc-from-andrew-and-tristan-tate

Tell us, what does a bitcoin wallet look like?

bacchi

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1642 on: February 18, 2023, 07:06:12 PM »
Re "The government can't take your bitcoin" and "hold in cold storage"

Doesn't help.   Most governments will know what a bitcoin wallet looks like.  (and, at a guess, in Tate's case it looks a lot like money laundering.  I am thinking that unless he can show the BTC are squeaky clean, and all taxes paid on the income they represent, they won't be his BTC for much longer)

https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/police-seized-nearly-dollar500000-in-btc-from-andrew-and-tristan-tate

Tell us, what does a bitcoin wallet look like?

What government does okonumiyaki represent?

okonumiyaki

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1643 on: February 18, 2023, 08:29:34 PM »


Tell us, what does a bitcoin wallet look like?

Well, obvious enough that the Romanian police were able to confiscate it.  (though, it could have been that they were subpoenaed to disclose all assets, and so gave them up) 

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1644 on: February 18, 2023, 09:06:22 PM »


Tell us, what does a bitcoin wallet look like?

Well, obvious enough that the Romanian police were able to confiscate it.  (though, it could have been that they were subpoenaed to disclose all assets, and so gave them up)

From the article you posted it reads like they have been able to seize a small proportion of his total crypto holdings, that would only be because he left the private keys to those wallets lying around for them to find.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1645 on: February 18, 2023, 10:26:23 PM »
Quote
Mateea Petrescu, a spokesperson for Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan (who was also arrested ), told Decrypt that Romanian police also confiscated hardware wallets containing digital assets.

Petrescu said Andrew Tate’s wallet contained five Bitcoin—today worth around $111,339. Tristan’s wallet held around 16 Bitcoin.

In total, that’s $467,625 worth of the asset.
https://decrypt.co/121308/andrew-tate-bitcoin-seized

"Hardware wallets" are physical devices, so "confiscated" could simply mean Romanian police took possession of the physical devices.  Those typically have (potentially flawed) security preventing access to the private key.  I haven't seen any articles mention a transfer of BTC out of the Tate's hardware wallets.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2023, 10:28:02 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1646 on: February 19, 2023, 12:07:37 AM »
Quote
Mateea Petrescu, a spokesperson for Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan (who was also arrested ), told Decrypt that Romanian police also confiscated hardware wallets containing digital assets.

Petrescu said Andrew Tate’s wallet contained five Bitcoin—today worth around $111,339. Tristan’s wallet held around 16 Bitcoin.

In total, that’s $467,625 worth of the asset.
https://decrypt.co/121308/andrew-tate-bitcoin-seized

"Hardware wallets" are physical devices, so "confiscated" could simply mean Romanian police took possession of the physical devices.  Those typically have (potentially flawed) security preventing access to the private key.  I haven't seen any articles mention a transfer of BTC out of the Tate's hardware wallets.

If all they have is the physical devices and don't have access to the private key, they haven't 'seized' anything as far as his crypto is concerned.  For all they know Tate could have already done a factory reset on those devices and has his seed phrase locked up in a swiss bank safe deposit box or some hiding place somewhere on earth that only he knows about.  The authorities probably know about some of his wallets, but likely he also has wallets that noone even knows are his.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2023, 12:11:35 AM by Juan Ponce de León »

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1647 on: February 19, 2023, 09:13:03 AM »
Does the confiscation of wealth really matter?

Tate is either not going to need the money in prison for human trafficking/rape or he's going to be exonerated and will get all his money back.

bacchi

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1648 on: February 19, 2023, 09:20:57 AM »
Does the confiscation of wealth really matter?

Tate is either not going to need the money in prison for human trafficking/rape or he's going to be exonerated and will get all his money back.

If he ends up in the clinker, one of his acolytes can use his hidden BTC to fill up his commissary account.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #1649 on: February 19, 2023, 05:29:29 PM »
Does the confiscation of wealth really matter?

Tate is either not going to need the money in prison for human trafficking/rape or he's going to be exonerated and will get all his money back.
If he ends up in the clinker, one of his acolytes can use his hidden BTC to fill up his commissary account.
For the new "inmate" category in the "Investment Order" thread: yes, add "a low % crypto allocation".