As I've said many times, I'm looking to be convinced, but so far, that hasn't happened, and B42 is making a lot of sense to me even if I don't necessarily buy his predictions. His arguments can be right, but his predictions wrong.
Meanwhile, I have yet to see a solid crypto argument that fully makes sense to me other than the fact that there's potential to make a lot of money. That can also be true along side most things B42 argues being correct.
This is what's so frustrating about the debate.
I think one of the problems with this thread is that we're really comparing apples and oranges. I don't think it really makes sense to compare crypto to index fund investing. I think it would make more sense to compare it to day trading or forex. I don't mean this as a knock -- plenty of people do this, and some of them make a lot more money than I'll ever have. For me, though, a big appeal of the investment strategy that I've followed (index funds) is that it is reliable, and requires no luck, special knowledge, or timing. I don't need to do a lot of research or pay attention to prices. It's simple. For these same reasons, I don't day trade or use options or margin. For me, having a strategy that is simple, proven over time, and reproducible (meaning anyone can do it and expect to get similar results) is what makes this stuff a real source of freedom.
I have a 6 year old. When she starts working (say in 10-15 years) and is making her first investment choices, I suspect she would still be able to do what I did and get a similar result. I started investing seriously at 30 and have a portfolio of $1.3 million 15 years later. Crypto could be very popular (in terms of being used as a payment platform) by that time, but I think it will look very different as an investment (either because it will have stabilized or crashed). The alternative would be that the prices continue to increase dramatically forever, but I don't think that anyone believes that.
It's undeniable that Bitcoin has outgained the stock market over the last 10 years. But it's also undeniable that the stock market has a much longer track record of delivering returns that have consistently out performed inflation, bonds, etc. So, ultimately, I think it comes down to what you're looking for. Do you want to find the current strategy for beating the market, or are you interested in a much longer-used strategy for reaching financial independence? With the former (whether it's crypto or something else) you could make tons of money but it will take a lot more work and engagement, and the risk of going bust is higher. The latter, on the other hand, is much more simple and reliable, but it isn't necessarily the fastest. I'm in the latter camp, but I recognize that this is a matter of personal preference (much like risk tolerance).
I have enjoyed the back and forth of this thread, though, as it has helped me to clarify my own ideas.
To be fair, when I say I'm looking to be convinced, I don't mean that I'm looking to be convinced to buy individual crypto coins.
It's already been established by people on both sides of the debate that in my particular case, because I'm perfectly happy with my level of wealth and returns that there's no argument to buy coins at this point except as speculation.
That was my first question: is there any argument to be made that I will miss out on anything except gains by not buying these coins now? As if they becomes integrated more into the regular economy, they'll just become part of the financial ecosystem and be captured by index funds and pension funds eventually. I'll just miss out on possible outsized gains that I don't care about.
Okay cool. That was established. No need for me to bother thinking about buying one of these individual coins. That provided me A LOT of clarity through the noise from both sides.
Now, when I say I'm looking to still be convinced, what I mean is that I'm still looking to be convinced about the utility and predictions around crypto.
I *get* that an enormous amount of people delve into understanding crypto and then become overwhelmingly convinced about how AMAZING and REVOLUTIONARY it is. And when I talk to actual crypto experts and read endless articles, I don't experience the same reaction. I see a lot of potential, but no clear path forward in terms of utility, and every example I'm given, like the Ticketmaster, example, seems to be offering a solution to a problem that doesn't exist because of a currency issue and wouldn't be solved by a new currency either.
That said, I'm am definitely starting to wrap my mind around NFTs. It kind of baffles me, because I contrary to my high level of activity here, I am NOT a child of the internet. You see me here all the time because this is basically the only social media I use. So NFTs sounds absurd to me personally, but as someone who has dated A LOT of software dudes who went fucking gaga for Sims and Second Life back in the day, I can grasp the mentality of the population that sees value in NFTs.
Coins though? In their current form?
My brain just refuses to grasp the hype, and the moment I find myself resistant to something new, the moment I have a reaction of the old man sitting on his porch ranting about "Young kids these days with their internet dog money! Back in my day you wrapped your bills in a rubber band and that was good enough for me!" I immediately start seeking out information to disprove my intuitive position.
And I will either become convinced of the value of current individual coins, or it will take so long that history happens in the meantime and I get my answer.
What I've been looking at are top coins that aren't sky rocketing in value, that aren't projected to sky rocket in value, and trying to understand why they are still touted as big players.
An example is EOS. It's worth about $5 a coin and sky high projections put it at hitting a whopping $22 in 2022. It was called the "Etherium killer" and has had some struggles, but many sources are still really bullish on it. It also apparently runs some of the highest number of actual transactions, which means it's actually used more than the most valuable coins.
I've read at least 100 articles about why this is, and I still can't put my finger on *exactly* why it seems to be immune to explosive value compared to other, similar coins.
As I said, I understand its issues and drawbacks, but the other coins have equally huge or bigger drawbacks, especially in terms of energy consumption, and everything else noted in this thread, particularly about Bitcoin.
So if someone can give me a common sense explanation as to why certain coins blow up to such extreme levels and others, which are hyped just as much done, I would appreciate that.