Author Topic: What do you guys think about this fund?  (Read 8392 times)

Killerbrandt

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What do you guys think about this fund?
« on: May 08, 2015, 12:45:55 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 01:03:23 PM by Killerbrandt »

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2015, 02:26:33 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2015, 02:38:28 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

How is it Garbage? Your fund has only done about 6 percent since 2000 (only 15 years). This fund has done about 16 percent since 1995 (20 years). Also, the Health sector is booming in the USA and will continue as Boomers age and retire. This fund even shows it out performing the S&P and getting a Morning Star of 5. So why is this garbage? the only up you have is the low expense ratio.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 02:42:04 PM by Killerbrandt »

dgoldm1287

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2015, 02:46:08 PM »
I put a portion of my Roth into T. Rowe Health Sciences and was very pleased with the returns. However, my company switched to Vanguard that no longer offered the same funds.

dycker1978

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2015, 02:47:38 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

+1  Yours is all one sector... if that sector tanks so does your money.  The vanguard account is diversified, and thus more stable.

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2015, 02:59:59 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

+1  Yours is all one sector... if that sector tanks so does your money.  The vanguard account is diversified, and thus more stable.

If the only reason not to go with the fund is fear, then I will stick with the health fund that has shown more growth than any other sector, including the Vanguard fund. Plus the fund is not all with one company, it is broken into many different companies,which include people like Johnson & Johnson. The only time the Health sector crashed was during the time when all sectors crashed. 

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2015, 03:01:35 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

How is it Garbage? Your fund has only done about 6 percent since 2000 (only 15 years). This fund has done about 16 percent since 1995 (20 years). Also, the Health sector is booming in the USA and will continue as Boomers age and retire. This fund even shows it out performing the S&P and getting a Morning Star of 5. So why is this garbage? the only up you have is the low expense ratio.


Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2015, 03:04:53 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

How is it Garbage? Your fund has only done about 6 percent since 2000 (only 15 years). This fund has done about 16 percent since 1995 (20 years). Also, the Health sector is booming in the USA and will continue as Boomers age and retire. This fund even shows it out performing the S&P and getting a Morning Star of 5. So why is this garbage? the only up you have is the low expense ratio.



That means your fund will crash also? Right?

Also, based on the facts, this has 20 years of history and the Vanguard has 15 right? They both went through the ups and downs and the Health sector won. It is also the fastest growing sector due to the large number of boomers retiring and living longer. There plenty of room for growth still with advancement in medicine. 

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2015, 03:07:25 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

How is it Garbage? Your fund has only done about 6 percent since 2000 (only 15 years). This fund has done about 16 percent since 1995 (20 years). Also, the Health sector is booming in the USA and will continue as Boomers age and retire. This fund even shows it out performing the S&P and getting a Morning Star of 5. So why is this garbage? the only up you have is the low expense ratio.



That means your fund will crash also? Right?

Also, based on the facts, this has 20 years of history and the Vanguard has 15 right? They both went through the ups and downs and the Health sector won. It is also the fastest growing sector due to the large number of boomers retiring and living longer. There plenty of room for growth still with advancement in medicine.

Incorrect.  A market index by definition, cannot "outperform" or "underperform".  I can provide many sources for this information if you're open to reading it.

dycker1978

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2015, 03:08:54 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

+1  Yours is all one sector... if that sector tanks so does your money.  The vanguard account is diversified, and thus more stable.

If the only reason not to go with the fund is fear, then I will stick with the health fund that has shown more growth than any other sector, including the Vanguard fund. Plus the fund is not all with one company, it is broken into many different companies,which include people like Johnson & Johnson. The only time the Health sector crashed was during the time when all sectors crashed.
If you didn't care for our opinion, why did you ask?

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2015, 03:10:44 PM »
I was looking at this fund (T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund PRHSX) and it sounds pretty good! I got word that they are closing the fund to new investors come June 1st. What do you all think?

http://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRHSX

Garbage.  Pinnacle of garbage.

Go with this instead:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT

How is it Garbage? Your fund has only done about 6 percent since 2000 (only 15 years). This fund has done about 16 percent since 1995 (20 years). Also, the Health sector is booming in the USA and will continue as Boomers age and retire. This fund even shows it out performing the S&P and getting a Morning Star of 5. So why is this garbage? the only up you have is the low expense ratio.



That means your fund will crash also? Right?

Also, based on the facts, this has 20 years of history and the Vanguard has 15 right? They both went through the ups and downs and the Health sector won. It is also the fastest growing sector due to the large number of boomers retiring and living longer. There plenty of room for growth still with advancement in medicine.

Incorrect.  A market index by definition, cannot "outperform" or "underperform".  I can provide many sources for this information if you're open to reading it.

So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback? 

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 03:14:27 PM »
I was wondering if there were any other drawbacks other than fear. Overall, from the facts it appears strong right? Do you see anything else wrong with it? I really do appreciate the feed back. The feedback is helping me think deeper before jumping.

Keekster

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2015, 03:15:17 PM »
Your health sciences fund may or may not outperform VTSAX but it is guaranteed to have higher costs associated with owning the mutual fund.

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2015, 03:16:37 PM »
Your health sciences fund may or may not outperform VTSAX but it is guaranteed to have higher costs associated with owning the mutual fund.

That is a very good statement and true!

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2015, 03:18:57 PM »
So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback?

Correct.  Risk is the drawback you get with these type of funds.  Especially when you consider that the statistics show that outperforming funds in one period, have no correlation to funds which outperform over the next period.  In fact, the studies showed it had a slight negative correlation.  It is almost a statistical certainty that you this fund will underperform the index over the long term, so yes, why risk it?

skyrefuge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2015, 03:21:08 PM »
I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come.

How did you acquire these million facts about the health industry and the knowledge that it will continue to grow? Unless you've uncovered a big secret that no one else knows about, the beliefs about the future growth of the industry are already priced into the underlying health-industry stocks, and thus, into the fund itself. If no one else has heard of aging baby boomers 'til now, then yeah, the fund will probably continue to outperform. But you better buy-in quick, because now that you've spilled the beans, every else is going to rush in and jack the price up even further!

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2015, 03:21:59 PM »
So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback?

Correct.  Risk is the drawback you get with these type of funds.  Especially when you consider that the statistics show that outperforming funds in one period, have no correlation to funds which outperform over the next period.  In fact, the studies showed it had a slight negative correlation.  It is almost a statistical certainty that you this fund will underperform the index over the long term, so yes, why risk it?

That is all very true guys! Thank you all for the help! Sorry if I was felling like I was attacking lol I'm just trying to figure it all out. THANKS! :)

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2015, 03:25:30 PM »
I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come.

How did you acquire these million facts about the health industry and the knowledge that it will continue to grow? Unless you've uncovered a big secret that no one else knows about, the beliefs about the future growth of the industry are already priced into the underlying health-industry stocks, and thus, into the fund itself. If no one else has heard of aging baby boomers 'til now, then yeah, the fund will probably continue to outperform. But you better buy-in quick, because now that you've spilled the beans, every else is going to rush in and jack the price up even further!

Well there is nonstop articles about the Health sector and all the growth and discoveries (never ending diseases and population growth worldwide). Also, with the largest generation in USA history (Boomers) aging to retirement and predicted to live longer, they are already showing the costs of healthcare rising.

30French

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2015, 03:27:17 PM »
I was wondering if there were any other drawbacks other than fear. Overall, from the facts it appears strong right? Do you see anything else wrong with it? I really do appreciate the feed back. The feedback is helping me think deeper before jumping.

What other drawbacks are there to investing other than losing money or underperforming the market?  Is that "fear" not worth considering?

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2015, 03:29:51 PM »
I was wondering if there were any other drawbacks other than fear. Overall, from the facts it appears strong right? Do you see anything else wrong with it? I really do appreciate the feed back. The feedback is helping me think deeper before jumping.

What other drawbacks are there to investing other than losing money or underperforming the market?  Is that "fear" not worth considering?

True, but they are rated the same risk level (High) and the one that has been around longer shows how it can perform through the ups and downs better.

skyrefuge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2015, 03:37:16 PM »
Well there is nonstop articles about the Health sector and all the growth and discoveries (never ending diseases and population growth worldwide). Also, with the largest generation in USA history (Boomers) aging to retirement and predicted to live longer, they are already showing the costs of healthcare rising.

Yes, my point was that, in order to beat the market, you generally have to know something that that most other people do not know. Due to the nonstop articles you reference, every stock market investor already knows all about the potential growth of the health care sector. That knowledge is already "priced in", and makes it difficult for the fund to outperform the market in the future, even *if* the growth continues as expected.

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2015, 03:39:02 PM »
I was wondering if there were any other drawbacks other than fear. Overall, from the facts it appears strong right? Do you see anything else wrong with it? I really do appreciate the feed back. The feedback is helping me think deeper before jumping.

What other drawbacks are there to investing other than losing money or underperforming the market?  Is that "fear" not worth considering?

True, but they are rated the same risk level (High) and the one that has been around longer shows how it can perform through the ups and downs better.

I'm genuinely sorry if this sounds harsh, but if you don't know what an index is, you shouldn't be putting your money anywhere.

VTSAX is the cheaper version of VTSMX, which is a more complete version of VFINX, which itself debuted in 1976 and was the industry’s first index fund for individual investors.

I recommend watching the short Boglehead Video Series:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy

Yes the guy is silly, and a bit over the top, but the advice is geared towards newbies and it's easy to understand.

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2015, 03:43:41 PM »
WOW! You guys are being really helpful and nothing is harsh in here :) We are just trying to help each other. You guys are making excellent points! I love it! I think I will look into the Vanguard fund more now.

Change of topics a bit, what if I am fully contributing to my 401k & Roth IRA. Also have a index fund from another place getting monthly contributions, would you guys then take the risk with this Health Fund and put some in there?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 03:45:43 PM by Killerbrandt »

astvilla

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2015, 03:45:29 PM »
I agree with others...VTSAX is by far the superior option in terms of risk and performance. If you really wanted to go into this healthcare fund, I'd make it a small holding out of your whole portfolio.


So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback? 

Since you're so insistent, I can give you quite a few reasons why healthcare might not grow.

No drug targets - the big issue facing big pharma. No more drug targets. We have nothing to target! Or running out of ideas. When was the last time you saw a new blood pressure medication? Or a new allergy medication? Or a new diabetic medication? Or a new statin drug? So many drugs are going generic and we have great drugs for many conditions already, no company will go into those disease states because even if the FDA passes it, insurers won't pay thousands for a very minimal if not equal benefit. Hence stocks like gilead not doing too hot now. I remember analysts raving about "Oh Gilead will hit $150 blah blah blah last year." Expect by next year for it to do well. Now what? Then the analysts say in their column, oh well i was a bit premature, i still maintain my belief in gilead, well now what? Bunch of baloney good thing I didn't listen to those people, the way they talk is like inspires the opposite of trust.

So long-term drug targets are a big problem. That's one reason you saw many mergers last year and consolidation. Big pharma don't even make their own drugs anymore. Buy the small companies and help them apply to the FDA.

Generics - you can argue biologics but that's a risk you'd have to take.

Millions of people getting older - well costs are getting cheaper, ever hear of the ACA? Big deal long way back in ancient times. Medicare negotiates prices, asking for blind bids on things like test strips. Drive prices down. Hospitals are closing and contracting. And what will happen when all the baby boomers die and there aren't so many old people around anymore. You gonna time the dying out of baby boomers? Let me know if you find out how.

Risk of political forces socializing healthcare. If the costs become so high and the push to make healthcare actually affordable somehow goes through, then what? Gonna time it? While they draft a new law? No one 100% knows the future. I know though 100% your health fund is more expensive.

The big fear I think is lack of targets though IMO. Again just opinion. But we hit every protein, receptor, inhibit, stimulate, do everything we can or god forbid we cure so many things, then what? Where do we go? Cybernetics? That'll be cool. Combination therapy? Stem cells? That and cost of developing drugs and recovering those costs show no signs of abating. IMO there's overvaluation but I honestly have no clue what a fair price is. You're infinitely better off with VTSAX as others said and the reasons they provided. But hey why not buy that fund, come check on us in 20 years and we can compare? Who knows, maybe you're right, you wanna bet on that uncertainty?


Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2015, 03:47:05 PM »
I agree with others...VTSAX is by far the superior option in terms of risk and performance. If you really wanted to go into this healthcare fund, I'd make it a small holding out of your whole portfolio.


So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback? 

Since you're so insistent, I can give you quite a few reasons why healthcare might not grow.

No drug targets - the big issue facing big pharma. No more drug targets. We have nothing to target! Or running out of ideas. When was the last time you saw a new blood pressure medication? Or a new allergy medication? Or a new diabetic medication? Or a new statin drug? So many drugs are going generic and we have great drugs for many conditions already, no company will go into those disease states because even if the FDA passes it, insurers won't pay thousands for a very minimal if not equal benefit. Hence stocks like gilead not doing too hot now. I remember analysts raving about "Oh Gilead will hit $150 blah blah blah last year." Expect by next year for it to do well. Now what? Then the analysts say in their column, oh well i was a bit premature, i still maintain my belief in gilead, well now what? Bunch of baloney good thing I didn't listen to those people, the way they talk is like inspires the opposite of trust.

So long-term drug targets are a big problem. That's one reason you saw many mergers last year and consolidation. Big pharma don't even make their own drugs anymore. Buy the small companies and help them apply to the FDA.

Generics - you can argue biologics but that's a risk you'd have to take.

Millions of people getting older - well costs are getting cheaper, ever hear of the ACA? Big deal long way back in ancient times. Medicare negotiates prices, asking for blind bids on things like test strips. Drive prices down. Hospitals are closing and contracting. And what will happen when all the baby boomers die and there aren't so many old people around anymore. You gonna time the dying out of baby boomers? Let me know if you find out how.

Risk of political forces socializing healthcare. If the costs become so high and the push to make healthcare actually affordable somehow goes through, then what? Gonna time it? While they draft a new law? No one 100% knows the future. I know though 100% your health fund is more expensive.

The big fear I think is lack of targets though IMO. Again just opinion. But we hit every protein, receptor, inhibit, stimulate, do everything we can or god forbid we cure so many things, then what? Where do we go? Cybernetics? That'll be cool. Combination therapy? Stem cells? That and cost of developing drugs and recovering those costs show no signs of abating. IMO there's overvaluation but I honestly have no clue what a fair price is. You're infinitely better off with VTSAX as others said and the reasons they provided. But hey why not buy that fund, come check on us in 20 years and we can compare? Who knows, maybe you're right, you wanna bet on that uncertainty?

Those are all very sold points!

James

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2015, 03:54:35 PM »
So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback?

Let me paint a scenario...

It is 2016, and you have a nice big chunk of your portfolio sitting in this wonderful fund which is almost guaranteed to do well because everyone agrees there is no end in sight for the growth in health care. We spend a fortune in healthcare, and more is spent every year. You are golden.

Then, the government all of a sudden realizes the rest of the world doesn't spend so much money on health care. Around the same time the public starts to realize we aren't all that much happier with our health care even with high spending, and end-of-life experiences are not better with more spending, it's actually worse.

Policies are changed and the public starts to utilize hospice and less health care. The policies encourage people to use less costly methods of health care, and cut back on utilization. New technology is not seen as worth the investment, so both government and corporations cut back on most innovations, preferring to stick with cheaper current technology. By the time you realize this, highly paid investors and fund managers have already figured this out, and fled the sector. You finally realize the fund was at the peak when you purchased it, but by then it has lost much of its value. Faced with a rapidly dropping value, you anguish over whether to hold out for a correction and increases that still seem possible, or cut and run despite your losses. Finally you pull out and switch to another sector that makes a lot more sense in the current market, it has been growing nicely for years and looks to have a nice strong run in front of it. You lost a big chunk of your investments, but hey, everyone agreed it was bound to go up, these things happen.

Now it is 2018, the new sector you bought into is starting to tank... who could have guessed it, it looked so strong when you bought it... see the pattern in jumping on the backs of high fliers? If it looks strong right now and you can't see any reason why it wouldn't go up faster than anything else, you have already missed the opportunity. The key is to find sectors that seem like they suck, but in reality you somehow know they don't. That is not the health sector right now.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 03:59:33 PM by James »

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2015, 04:04:35 PM »
So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback?

Let me paint a scenario...

It is 2016, and you have a nice big chunk of your portfolio sitting in this wonderful fund which is almost guaranteed to do well because everyone agrees there is no end in sight for the growth in health care. We spend a fortune in healthcare, and more is spent every year. You are golden.

Then, the government all of a sudden realizes the rest of the world doesn't spend so much money on health care. Around the same time the public starts to realize we aren't all that much happier with our health care even with high spending, and end-of-life experiences are not better with more spending, it's actually worse.

Policies are changed and the public starts to utilize hospice and less health care. The policies encourage people to use less costly methods of health care, and cut back on utilization. New technology is not seen as worth the investment, so both government and corporations cut back on most innovations, preferring to stick with cheaper current technology. By the time you realize this, highly paid investors and fund managers have already figured this out, and fled the sector. You finally realize the fund was at the peak when you purchased it, but by then it has lost much of its value. Faced with a rapidly dropping value, you anguish over whether to hold out for a correction and increases that still seem possible, or cut and run despite your losses. Finally you pull out and switch to another sector that makes a lot more sense in the current market, it has been growing nicely for years and looks to have a nice strong run in front of it. You lost a big chunk of your investments, but hey, everyone agreed it was bound to go up, these things happen.

Now it is 2018, the new sector you bought into is starting to tank... who could have guessed it, it looked so strong when you bought it... see the pattern in jumping on the backs of high fliers? If it looks strong right now and you can't see any reason why it wouldn't go up faster than anything else, you have already missed the opportunity. The key is to find sectors that seem like they suck, but in reality you somehow know they don't. That is not the health sector right now.

That is a good point! That is why Warren goes after damaged companies, not dead, but hit a small weak spot.

Dodge

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2015, 04:07:35 PM »
WOW! You guys are being really helpful and nothing is harsh in here :) We are just trying to help each other. You guys are making excellent points! I love it! I think I will look into the Vanguard fund more now.

Change of topics a bit, what if I am fully contributing to my 401k & Roth IRA. Also have a index fund from another place getting month contributions, would you guys then take the risk with this Health Fund and put some in there?

Your entire reasoning for even choosing the Health Fund is based on flawed logic.  Hopefully the video series I linked to above can help explain why Survivorship Bias is the greatest fallacy in investing.  If you'd like to see the history of the index, here's a link to MrMoneyMustache's article on IndexView:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2014/08/25/indexview/

And here's just the tool if you'd like it in fullscreen:

http://thume.ca/indexView/

Put in two years, any two years, and see how your money would have grown had it been in a total stock market index.  You'll find that it's impossible to select two year more than 10 or so years apart, which result in a negative return.  If my parents put just $20,000 in an account the year I was born, it would be worth $3,674,000 today:



I find it more fun to calculate returns with monthly additions, to more accurately simulate what the average investor here might be doing.  Here's a link to the calculator I like to use:

http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

If you had a baby 18 years ago, and saved $200 a month to pay for college, you'd have been able to pay for college with no loans today:



If you and your partner each earn $50,000 a year, and you lived off one person's salary, completely saving the other ($35,000 after taxes), you'd have $1,387,459 today:



And this is after 2 huge crashes, and a "paltry" 7.53% return.  In other words, there has never been a time in history when saving up, and putting money into the index wouldn't have made you rich...so why risk it?

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2015, 04:12:05 PM »
WOW! You guys are being really helpful and nothing is harsh in here :) We are just trying to help each other. You guys are making excellent points! I love it! I think I will look into the Vanguard fund more now.

Change of topics a bit, what if I am fully contributing to my 401k & Roth IRA. Also have a index fund from another place getting month contributions, would you guys then take the risk with this Health Fund and put some in there?

Your entire reasoning for even choosing the Health Fund is based on flawed logic.  Hopefully the video series I linked to above can help explain why Survivorship Bias is the greatest fallacy in investing.  If you'd like to see the history of the index, here's a link to MrMoneyMustache's article on IndexView:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2014/08/25/indexview/

And here's just the tool if you'd like it in fullscreen:

http://thume.ca/indexView/

Put in two years, any two years, and see how your money would have grown had it been in a total stock market index.  You'll find that it's impossible to select two year more than 10 or so years apart, which result in a negative return.  If my parents put just $20,000 in an account the year I was born, it would be worth $3,674,000 today:



I find it more fun to calculate returns with monthly additions, to more accurately simulate what the average investor here might be doing.  Here's a link to the calculator I like to use:

http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

If you had a baby 18 years ago, and saved $200 a month to pay for college, you'd have been able to pay for college with no loans today:



If you and your partner each earn $50,000 a year, and you lived off one person's salary, completely saving the other ($35,000 after taxes), you'd have $1,387,459 today:



And this is after 2 huge crashes, and a "paltry" 7.53% return.  In other words, there has never been a time in history when saving up, and putting money into the index wouldn't have made you rich...so why risk it?

Holy Cow! Thank you guys for this! You all have some really good points and are helping a lot with this thinking. So pretty much I should not risk it and just let the natural market compounding do its job :) Thank you all for your help!

James

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2015, 04:21:15 PM »
Holy Cow! Thank you guys for this! You all have some really good points and are helping a lot with this thinking. So pretty much I should not risk it and just let the natural market compounding do its job :) Thank you all for your help!


Of course you realize at this point with all our comments we have pretty much guaranteed a continued and rapid growth in the sector... :D

Killerbrandt

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #30 on: May 08, 2015, 04:26:55 PM »
Holy Cow! Thank you guys for this! You all have some really good points and are helping a lot with this thinking. So pretty much I should not risk it and just let the natural market compounding do its job :) Thank you all for your help!


Of course you realize at this point with all our comments we have pretty much guaranteed a continued and rapid growth in the sector... :D

HAHAHA!! Seriously!

surfhb

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Re: What do you guys think about this fund?
« Reply #31 on: May 08, 2015, 05:08:00 PM »
You need to start reading and learning.   start here:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy