Author Topic: What are your strategies to ignore the market?  (Read 2558 times)

appleshampooid

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2019, 08:44:17 AM »
Focus on things that you can control: You can't control stock performance, but you can make sure you are in the funds with the lowest fees. You can read articles about whether traditional or Roth is better for your situation. You can research 529 tax deductions in your state.

You can also control how much you spend and save: A little downtime at work could be used to shop around your car insurance or research credit card sign up bonuses. Look into any employee discount programs that you might not be aware of, for example I found out my employee assistance program provides a free consultation to make a will. Make sure you are in the best health plan for your needs. Even checking grocery store flyers would be more productive than checking the stock market.
Thanks for this good advice on circle of control stuff. I've done a lot of that stuff in your first paragraph. Already in lowest cost funds possible at Vanguard for my AA, and not moving anywhere else. Traditional as much as possible for us, but only wife qualifies since I make too much money. So then Roth. Can only deduct $2k total per return of 529 contributions (sucks, but whatever).

We could probably tighten the belt a little bit. Wife and I talked about that last night. We're not full on consumer suckas, but there are probably a few holes here and there.

OurTown

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #51 on: August 16, 2019, 09:53:17 AM »
The market is a book.  Each trading day is a page.  The page I am reading now is today.  Assume that future pages have already been written (by the omniscient but deterministic market god), I just haven't read them yet.  I can't skip to the end of the book, sorry.  I can go back and read previous pages, which leads me to an objective well-founded belief that the value of the total stock market increases over time despite short term volatility. Remember, I am not the author of the book.  Worrying about the next page will not change the narrative.  All I can do is ready today's page, or just close the book and go live my life.

Davnasty

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #52 on: August 16, 2019, 10:20:40 AM »
What is somewhat interesting here on this thread and many other threads on this website is that FIRE is built upon ultimate faith in capitalism and the functioning of financial markets.  In some ways FIRE foundationally preaches leaving behind some tenents of capitalism (you always need more, more, more, get out of the workplace that supports corporate profits, etc.) but yet relies on other tenents, namely corporate profits fueling an ever rising stock market.

I don't think this is an accurate representation of the FIRE concept. The FI goal is to save enough to be financially independent, typically through a combination of efficient spending and efficient investing and then if you want, RE is an option. It just so happens that investing in the stock market is probably the fastest way to achieve that right now.

If investments and inflation were removed from the equation, lot's of people could still FIRE, it would just take longer. A 66% savings rate means 1 year of work pays for 3 years of expenses. Work from 20-45 and you should have enough to cover everything until you're 95. An oversimplified example, but my point is that it doesn't rely on the stock market.

I also don't think (reasonable) people pursuing FIRE have ultimate faith in financial markets. It's just a matter of making the best decision right now based on the available information. There's no such thing as a sure bet but betting on financial markets with money is a little bit like betting on the success of Chuck E. Cheese with their own tokens. I bet you all of my Chuck E. Cheese tokens that Chuck E. Cheese will stay open for 50 more years. Again, oversimplified, but something to think about.

Malkynn

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #53 on: August 16, 2019, 10:57:36 AM »
What is somewhat interesting here on this thread and many other threads on this website is that FIRE is built upon ultimate faith in capitalism and the functioning of financial markets.  In some ways FIRE foundationally preaches leaving behind some tenents of capitalism (you always need more, more, more, get out of the workplace that supports corporate profits, etc.) but yet relies on other tenents, namely corporate profits fueling an ever rising stock market.

I don't think this is an accurate representation of the FIRE concept. The FI goal is to save enough to be financially independent, typically through a combination of efficient spending and efficient investing and then if you want, RE is an option. It just so happens that investing in the stock market is probably the fastest way to achieve that right now.

If investments and inflation were removed from the equation, lot's of people could still FIRE, it would just take longer. A 66% savings rate means 1 year of work pays for 3 years of expenses. Work from 20-45 and you should have enough to cover everything until you're 95. An oversimplified example, but my point is that it doesn't rely on the stock market.

I also don't think (reasonable) people pursuing FIRE have ultimate faith in financial markets. It's just a matter of making the best decision right now based on the available information. There's no such thing as a sure bet but betting on financial markets with money is a little bit like betting on the success of Chuck E. Cheese with their own tokens. I bet you all of my Chuck E. Cheese tokens that Chuck E. Cheese will stay open for 50 more years. Again, oversimplified, but something to think about.

I would also say that most people pursuing FIRE are actually infinitely more concerned about the failure of the markets than most Gen Pop people. I don't think most people give it much thought, meanwhile we have thousands of posts agonizing over what could happen to the markets and which simulation of which strategy is the most reassuring in the most cases of improbable market failure at the exact wrong time.

I have never seen so much concern about a risk as I've seen here among the people least likely to be significantly negatively affected by that risk.

lexde

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #54 on: August 16, 2019, 11:53:49 AM »
Set up auto investing and donít look at market news. The best investors in the last recession were the ones who forgot they had an account and didnít panic sell.

appleshampooid

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #55 on: August 16, 2019, 11:57:24 AM »
Set up auto investing and donít look at market news. The best investors in the last recession were the ones who forgot they had an account and didnít panic sell.
I can't quite automate everything as our spending is very lumpy right now with 2 kids (one just born) and big expenses coming irregularly (house maintenance/repair, travel to see family, etc.). Every payday (every other Friday) I add up our CC balances, add a cushion for EF, and invest the balance. But just doing this every other week would be a huge improvement over my current level of checking, so that's what I'm going to strive for moving forward.

lexde

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #56 on: August 16, 2019, 12:54:32 PM »
Set up auto investing and donít look at market news. The best investors in the last recession were the ones who forgot they had an account and didnít panic sell.
I can't quite automate everything as our spending is very lumpy right now with 2 kids (one just born) and big expenses coming irregularly (house maintenance/repair, travel to see family, etc.). Every payday (every other Friday) I add up our CC balances, add a cushion for EF, and invest the balance. But just doing this every other week would be a huge improvement over my current level of checking, so that's what I'm going to strive for moving forward.
Thatís the way to go. :-) Auto, or as close to auto as you can manage (weekly, biweekly, or monthly sweeps). The less you look at your accounts and market news the better!

appleshampooid

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #57 on: August 16, 2019, 01:46:20 PM »
I successfully did NOT look at the stock market today. Almost closing bell!

Of course, I didn't get any work done either...baby steps...

smallstache

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #58 on: August 16, 2019, 02:11:24 PM »
I have had money in the markets for over 25 years.  I started about the time the internet came out and I found myself consistently glued to the screen in hopes that the stuff I had would go up up up.  Instead, it went down up down down up down up up down up...you know this because you are feeling it now.

As years went on, I learned:

- Over decades the indexes go up while individual companies come and go.  Funds that track indexes go up without siphoning off too much money to managers.

- Investing is for money you do not need in the next couple of years.  Budget your income to fund your lifestyle while putting aside money for use years into the future.

- Down days (and even crashes) can be deadly for individual companies but are healthy for the markets.  I welcome down days with open arms because I know I will buy several thousand dollars worth of stock at the end of the month (even more at the quarter when funds reinvest dividends).  It is an added bonus if the market tanks on the last day of the month!

- Nothing beats experience.  Good luck!

Steeze

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #59 on: August 16, 2019, 05:52:04 PM »
I successfully did NOT look at the stock market today. Almost closing bell!

Of course, I didn't get any work done either...baby steps...

Congrats! If we were at AA you would get a 1-day coin as reward for your first day sober! I had a shot of tequila earlier. Ask me how I know.

Radagast

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Re: What are your strategies to ignore the market?
« Reply #60 on: August 16, 2019, 07:06:31 PM »
I read Top is in thread almost every day