what are your pandemic recovery bets?

[mistymoney]

Assuming the world goes yolo asap - what stocks are going to shine, and what might bomb?

any predictions? and are you putting money behind it?

[talltexan]

It sounds like you're describing a bubble, and--while it's nice to get into bubbles early--we cannot know if it's early or late. I'm not deviating from my investing policy statement: scheduled rebalancing on May 7, and I expect to be selling some equities and buying some bonds. I invest with an eye to where things will be in twenty years, not a few weeks.

[mistymoney]

It sounds like you're describing a bubble, and--while it's nice to get into bubbles early--we cannot know if it's early or late. I'm not deviating from my investing policy statement: scheduled rebalancing on May 7, and I expect to be selling some equities and buying some bonds. I invest with an eye to where things will be in twenty years, not a few weeks.

i don't see why you would construe this would as a bubble. Some stocks or segments are always doing better than others. Was "shine" misinterreted somehow?

society is about to shift in a fundamental way once the larger majority get vaccinated. that some segment/companies may do better than others after that is somewhat of a given. What exactly those may be is a matter of conjecture.

I'm looking into what other may be conjecturing on.

[Roland of Gilead]

plywood is now $78 a sheet, so my bet is lumber companies like BCC are going to continue to go up as they are making bank.

[cool7hand]

It sounds like you're describing a bubble, and--while it's nice to get into bubbles early--we cannot know if it's early or late. I'm not deviating from my investing policy statement: scheduled rebalancing on May 7, and I expect to be selling some equities and buying some bonds. I invest with an eye to where things will be in twenty years, not a few weeks.

i don't see why you would construe this would as a bubble. Some stocks or segments are always doing better than others. Was "shine" misinterreted somehow?

society is about to shift in a fundamental way once the larger majority get vaccinated. that some segment/companies may do better than others after that is somewhat of a given. What exactly those may be is a matter of conjecture.

I'm looking into what other may be conjecturing on.

I think the point of the prior post is to say that thinking about recovery bets is just another way of market timing. There's nothing wrong with market timing, except that more often that not one doesn't get the timing right.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I invested on a recovery starting in March 2020, especially in travel, retail, oil & gas.  That's done really well so far.  I'm waiting until a full recovery to sell them off.

The market tries to price in events like increased travel after people are shut inside for a year.  I expect travel of such magnitude that experts will feel silly predicting it, and will err on the low end.  President Biden suggested July 4th as a target date, which allows lots of travel if his information is accurate.

[roomtempmayo]

Unfortunately, private prisons.  Courts around the country have a gigantic backlog, and all those inmates are going to go somewhere.

And, no, I'm not buying their stock.  They're a blight on our justice system.

[Bumperpuff]

It is a bit late to make those bets. Most industries that will do well post pandemic shot up once vaccines started going in arms. As for post pandemic drops, I would never recommend shorting a stock based on what a stranger on the internet says.
Personally, I bet a few thousand on Carnival Cruise Lines back in November, and family members bought Disney last spring. So far both bets are doing well, but this wouldn’t be the first time I bought a dud.