Author Topic: What are your moonshot investments?  (Read 10970 times)

J Boogie

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What are your moonshot investments?
« on: December 08, 2020, 09:03:48 AM »
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

bwall

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2020, 09:46:29 AM »
Yes, I'd be interested in hearing:

1) What these companies do.

2) What will cause the share price will go up 2x-6x. (In what time frame do you expect the increase to occur?)

3) Why did you pick these companies specifically?

utaca

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2020, 10:13:03 AM »
Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

I'm interested to hear your breakdown.

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2020, 10:39:22 AM »


MIND - Microcap that used to be in seismic leasing for fracking ops, got beaten down along with the industry, pivoted into marine sonar technology by purchasing Klein. Now they are seeing interest from governments who have begun to make orders. As a microcap it has the potential to more than double if they become a trusted name in marine sonar. Debt is minimal to non-existent.

CVM - just completed datalock on a long term cancer study. They are surging right now and probably will continue to do so. If the news is good, share price will go from the teens to close to/over a hundred. I'm unable to suss out whether or not the news will be good, but I like to have huge upside.

ORRCF - a unicorn of copper/gold mines, massive open pit in a friendly place - junior miner that will be prepping the site to sell to a major FCX or GOLD.

IPOB - Opendoor. Ibuying. Realtors simply do not provide value on par with the fees they earn, and this is likely the company that will be making the market more efficient. Time horizon to become a multibagger is likely more drawn out, but all the right people seem to be involved from Chamath on down to the rest of the team.

BTWNU - Peter Thiel SPAC focused on acquiring SE Asian startups. Peter Thiel has a good track record as an investor to put it mildly. I am purely on board to piggyback on his nose for sniffing out transformational companies in position to change the game. It's still close to the net asset value that SPACs enter the market with.

For MIND and ORRCF, I piggybacked on the research of Mariusz Skonieczny who might seem unprofessional but certainly makes sound arguments.

I have selected these companies because I think they are in the early innings of success.

IPOB is the most valuable at 1.3b and the others are mostly too small to merit any attention from institutional investors.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2020, 10:46:05 AM by J Boogie »

vand

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2020, 02:54:53 AM »
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2020, 03:05:35 AM by vand »

EricEng

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2020, 06:37:13 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2020, 10:00:19 AM »
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.

It requires you to time the bottom pretty well though - which I've had mixed success with. I got lucky timing an oil and gas bottom recently thanks to the vaccine news. I basically called the bottom by buyings tons of PBF (could have been any oil stock, but that one was really well positioned) and doubling on it in a couple weeks.

But if I would have tried to call the bottom just a few months earlier I would have halved my investment and then I would have needed the intestinal fortitude not to puke up my shares before the vaccine news hit just to break even. And to be honest it's not clear that $7 wasn't the bottom, and I wouldn't have been too shocked to see it hit $3.

People have tried to call the bottom with shipping and they've gotten absolutely wrecked. The new cycle might be coming or it might be a head fake with new lows on the way.

So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

I appreciate your comments though and I too am rotating significantly out of my high growth positions and into undervalued commodity producers and more reasonably valued blue chip stocks like UNH and TGT or, er, I mean index funds.






J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2020, 10:03:09 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)

bwall

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2020, 10:56:18 AM »
So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

Bold mine.

Very good points about cycles. I remember when the Bank of England decided to sell their gold reserves in 1999 when gold was at an all time (post Bretton Woods) low. The Swiss National Bank thought that was such a good idea that they followed suit, thus marking the bottom of the gold cycle that had peaked in 1980.
It never occurred to me until I read your post that crypto could potentially take market share from gold but I certainly see that as a very real possibility.

I've taken a great amount of pleasure in watching my small caps go up 4-5x since January and they're now between $4b and $10b in market cap, so they could still go up another 4-5x in the next years, or be taken over.

vand

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2020, 11:49:34 AM »
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.

It requires you to time the bottom pretty well though - which I've had mixed success with. I got lucky timing an oil and gas bottom recently thanks to the vaccine news. I basically called the bottom by buyings tons of PBF (could have been any oil stock, but that one was really well positioned) and doubling on it in a couple weeks.

But if I would have tried to call the bottom just a few months earlier I would have halved my investment and then I would have needed the intestinal fortitude not to puke up my shares before the vaccine news hit just to break even. And to be honest it's not clear that $7 wasn't the bottom, and I wouldn't have been too shocked to see it hit $3.

People have tried to call the bottom with shipping and they've gotten absolutely wrecked. The new cycle might be coming or it might be a head fake with new lows on the way.

So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

I appreciate your comments though and I too am rotating significantly out of my high growth positions and into undervalued commodity producers and more reasonably valued blue chip stocks like UNH and TGT or, er, I mean index funds.

I  agree that determining the bottom of a market cycle is difficult. That said though, I don't think its strictly necessary. I look for extremes in comparative valuations and then accumulate over a couple of years and then re-evaluate my investment thesis after 2-3 years. If the market is not showing signs of recovery then I move my money elsewhere and try something else.  Powerful major trends take years to unfold, and you don't need to nail the bottom in order to still make several times your money if indeed the market develops into a powerful full blown bull market.


You are right that there are secular trends that sometimes kill off cyclicality, but in the majority of cases it isn't so. Everyone thinks big tech is going to eat the world today, but a decade ago MSFT was a value share trading on 7 times earnings. Same for AAPL, which was trading for less than its net cash position. Some of today's beaten down value stocks will be tomorrow's darlings and trading at crazy valuations a decade from now because the world around us will have changed.


EricEng

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2020, 11:52:46 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.

vand

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2020, 11:53:14 AM »
So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

Bold mine.

Very good points about cycles. I remember when the Bank of England decided to sell their gold reserves in 1999 when gold was at an all time (post Bretton Woods) low. The Swiss National Bank thought that was such a good idea that they followed suit, thus marking the bottom of the gold cycle that had peaked in 1980.
It never occurred to me until I read your post that crypto could potentially take market share from gold but I certainly see that as a very real possibility.

I've taken a great amount of pleasure in watching my small caps go up 4-5x since January and they're now between $4b and $10b in market cap, so they could still go up another 4-5x in the next years, or be taken over.

I have nothing at all against Crypto, but the question that everyone is asking "Is Crypto The New Gold?" is the sort of question that gets asked right at the peak of a mania and makes me sure very sure that my gold isn't going to suddenly become worthless.

Huffduf41

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2020, 12:31:42 PM »
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.


You made my ears perk up w/ IPOB since I think the fees associated w/ selling are egregious.  IMHO 1% isn't enough savings to dump the traditional realtor.

PDXTabs

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2020, 01:08:51 PM »
ABNB, apparently.

Telecaster

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2020, 01:16:31 PM »
Back in May I bought some PK, which is a REIT that owns Hilton-branded hotels and resorts.  Mostly higher end properties.  It was beat down about 2/3 off its normal trading range.  I assumed that travel will return eventually and the losses are temporary.  It was a good deal then, I'm not sure it is as good of a deal now. 

bwall

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2020, 01:19:45 PM »
I have nothing at all against Crypto, but the question that everyone is asking "Is Crypto The New Gold?" is the sort of question that gets asked right at the peak of a mania and makes me sure very sure that my gold isn't going to suddenly become worthless.

I'm always fascinated how two people can look at the same data and come up with completely different conclusions as to the best course of action.

Ricochet

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2020, 01:25:01 PM »
I've been really lucky with buying up energy stocks like SM, CPE, ET, OXY during the very bottom (OASIS did go bankrupt but I was only in for 1k) My real shot at the moon is FNMA (fannie mae), hoping the government will let go of this money-slave and let them return profits to the investors.
Like someone mentioned before, these are fun money etrade stocks, not my 401k / IRAs.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2020, 01:29:45 PM by Ricochet »

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2020, 01:29:35 PM »
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.


You made my ears perk up w/ IPOB since I think the fees associated w/ selling are egregious.  IMHO 1% isn't enough savings to dump the traditional realtor.

Perhaps, but the value proposition really is the immediate offer and the insane realtor fee simply gives them the room to make lucrative offers with good enough margins to make it worthwhile. The problem they are solving is the illiquidity of residential real estate.

The *feeling* they are hoping to provide is akin to weightlessness for homeowners who previously felt encumbered and unable to consider moving if a new opportunity presented itself. Granted OpenDoor can't do anything about kids in school, goodbyes to neighbors etc, but the purely administrative reasons for moving being a headache can be done away with. I think opendoor has a future state plan that includes handling furniture packing & moving and maybe even post office address and transitioning utilities to new owners etc, I'm not totally sure. It would make sense though.


3toesloth

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2020, 05:51:24 PM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.

PDXTabs

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2020, 05:59:31 PM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.

Just an observation, but Nikola and Tesla are not "new" economy companies. They manufacture a product that is extremely capital intensive just like many others have before.

Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!
« Last Edit: December 10, 2020, 06:01:56 PM by PDXTabs »

3toesloth

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2020, 06:12:01 PM »
Just an observation, but Nikola and Tesla are not "new" economy companies. They manufacture a product that is extremely capital intensive just like many others have before.

Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

You're right on both comments. However, Nikola and Tesla are "new" in that they are not using traditional financing and instead are endlessly issuing shares (not sure on Nikola). Yeah that's somewhat different from how things used to be done.

As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.

PDXTabs

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2020, 06:22:41 PM »
As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.

Is that true? I mean, you could buy your own taxi medallion in NYC, but you owned all the profit. You didn't have to share with anyone other than your bank if you had a loan. But if you drive for Radio Cab in Portland, OR you drove their cab. They spent the money to buy the cab.

3toesloth

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #22 on: December 10, 2020, 07:04:46 PM »
As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.

Is that true? I mean, you could buy your own taxi medallion in NYC, but you owned all the profit. You didn't have to share with anyone other than your bank if you had a loan. But if you drive for Radio Cab in Portland, OR you drove their cab. They spent the money to buy the cab.
I suspect that originally taxis were majority owner operators in most areas. Then as larger companies formed they undercut the owner operators until they only exist in small to medium towns. The medallion system was to limit the number of taxis and even there large companies formed. The only real economy of scale with Uber or Lift is the app. How they are losing money when all they have to do is advertise and maintain the app is crazy in my opinion. I think if drivers valued the miles on their cars correctly the economics of drivers would be poor.

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2020, 12:39:36 AM »
Their losses are due to two things- offering customers and drivers incentives like discounts and referral bonuses which goes under the umbrella of "sales and marketing" and then there are the R&D expenses.

R&D is self inflicted and the promotions are just mutually assured antiprofitability. A great thing for customers, the combination of fierce competition and investors willing to subsidize your rides in hopes that someday they won't have to anymore. Since they are competing, neither will want to be the one who takes the foot off the growth pedal first, and their growth method is push notifications offering you free rides.

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2020, 12:53:51 AM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

vand

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2020, 02:20:07 AM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

The scaleability that the digital economy allows makes the investment case for new-economy stocks like Uber and AirBnB easy to make, but scalability itseif is a danger because the same advantages are available to your competitor, allowing someone with an even better business idea to easily enter and put today's best companies to the wall. 

The case for Philip Morris is much harder to make by the same parameters, but PM is one of the greatest stocks in history and has continually defied "business logic" for decade upon decade.  Oh, and they actually make money, too. Lots of money.  Track records count for something.

To make the counter-case for Tobacco: in a world where Jeff Bezos' warcry of "your margin is my opportunity" has carried the torch for the new economy, Tobacco is an old industry that is entirely Amazon-proof.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2020, 03:20:19 AM »
My moonshot was/is the Covid-19 recovery stocks.

Back in March, I looked at individual companies beaten down by the lockdowns.  I set up a screen, where I checked that their -66% or greater drop was timed with the outbreak (dropping in steps, like the US market, in March).  Some companies might not make it, so I screened for indebtedness with debt/equity ratio.  Then I bought dozens of stocks from different areas... and waited.

Some stocks recovered rapidly off the depths of the March panic, but there was still an uncertain amount of time left until these stocks recovered or went bankrupt.  After being approved for options trading, I switched many of my positions from individual stocks, to call options on those same stocks.  So that's where I'm at now.

Dine Brand's stock (DIN) doubled quickly after I bought it, so I wound up selling it.

One of my most entertaining purchases was MicroVision (MVIS) which I bought at a low of $0.20/share.  At some point, a group on github analyzed patents and realized both MVIS and Microsoft patents were intertwined, suggesting Microsoft was the big customer MVIS wasn't allowed to disclose.  The stock shot up rapidly after that, and I sold for an 8x-9x profit.  That was also one of the rare times where I saw the name "Renaissance Technologies" listed as a significant shareholder.

I originally bought Macy's stock, but later switched to long-dated call options.  In a bankruptcy, I figured stock and options both go to $0.  Options provided leverage and/or reducing the amount of money I have at risk.

In the Oil Investments thread I mentioned XOP call options, which is the best way to go with the oil sector.  Unlike individual companies that go bankrupt, XOP is an ETF with a variety of holdings.  I had 2 oil stocks go bankrupt, both small individual companies... and I only bought 4 oil stocks, so that's saying something.

I bought call options on Carnival Cruises, which probably had the most spectacular day when the vaccine was announced with 95% effectiveness.  In part of one day, the options were up +100%, and then slid down to +70% or so.  You see that somewhat reflected in the stock, up +33% in 1 month, but still -55% YTD.  I haven't sold yet - I expect more gains as vaccinations become widespread, and a recovery grows more likely.

We'll see...

J Boogie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2020, 08:32:12 AM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

The scaleability that the digital economy allows makes the investment case for new-economy stocks like Uber and AirBnB easy to make, but scalability itseif is a danger because the same advantages are available to your competitor, allowing someone with an even better business idea to easily enter and put today's best companies to the wall. 

The case for Philip Morris is much harder to make by the same parameters, but PM is one of the greatest stocks in history and has continually defied "business logic" for decade upon decade.  Oh, and they actually make money, too. Lots of money.  Track records count for something.

To make the counter-case for Tobacco: in a world where Jeff Bezos' warcry of "your margin is my opportunity" has carried the torch for the new economy, Tobacco is an old industry that is entirely Amazon-proof.

Ha. Well perhaps the warcry they all rally around would be more like "your unaddicted children are my opportunity"

These days when it comes to new disruptive companies and barriers to entry, it all revolves around attention. People only have so much of it, and whichever companies roll off the tongue and become verbs in our everyday speech end up being the winners.

Of course, you have to build a damn good product, but that should go without saying.

3toesloth

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2020, 11:13:10 AM »
My thesis is that growth on many of these companies have slowed down considerably, many in 2018. While they are still valued like tech companies. Future will tell, but since I'm buying puts I won't be down much if it goes the other way.
MustacheAndaHalf
Like your ideas too, might try to find some myself.

EricEng

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2021, 09:35:05 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

hodedofome

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2021, 11:38:02 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #31 on: January 13, 2021, 12:37:59 PM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.

Gatzbie

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2021, 05:41:30 PM »
VTSAX

Pizzabrewer

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #33 on: January 13, 2021, 07:21:19 PM »
RECAF. I posted about it in the “Shoot, I just stock picked” thread.

Within a couple months they will have proven they’re sitting on a vast basin of petroleum. It could be another West Texas in which case the stock could be a 100-bagger or more.

Or they could find nothing and it goes bust.

Or somewhere in between.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2021, 09:17:39 AM »
Now that I'm more open about some of my holdings ...

Back in May I bought some PK, which is a REIT that owns Hilton-branded hotels and resorts.
I bought it 3 months before your post (Sep 2020), and it's up almost 70% since then.  Hope you held on!  It's not quite ripe to sell, but it looks close.

I've been really lucky with buying up energy stocks like SM, CPE, ET, OXY during the very bottom (OASIS did go bankrupt but I was only in for 1k)
I held Oasis Petroleum (OAS) into bankruptcy, but only lost -40%!  I got lucky when naive investors started buying after bankruptcy, or I'd have lost more.

In the past 6 months, CPE gained +230% and OXY +123%.  Which sounds like the party is over, but compared to 1 year ago, OXY is still down almost -50% and CPE almost -60%.  If a reopening/recovery benefits oil, I expect it to keep moving away from historic lows.  Which is also not a bad time to buy, in my view.

EricEng

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #35 on: January 20, 2021, 03:01:38 PM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.
I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.
I only sold half my holdings at $32 actually.  I sold the rest at $39.5 which was kind of bittersweet if I had just waited a day or two on the initial sell.  Oh well, still almost beats my annual salary in gains.  I think Gamestop is worth more than $5, but no where close to $40.  Of course this could be another Tesla where price has nothing to do with underyling business or just the reddit guys playing with it.

Tester

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #36 on: January 20, 2021, 10:33:13 PM »
For me it was plug power and roku.
For roku I missed thr IPO and bought two shares at 45 usd, I am up 900%
For plug power I kept buying since 2017, around 1k usd in total, I am up 1000 %.
If only I would have bought more :-).
I did not buy more as this is not my normal invesent, I buy index funds.

This year my play account is up 180% - as I also have shares from Ford, GM, Nokia (I know...).
I have some other shares which at least doubled, like Microsoft, solar edge, fiverr international...

And some time ago I bought Baba at 65 USD, sold them at 180 as I did not want to sell AMZN shares and I needed some money to finish a house.

All in all it is a good what if for me, but I am not gambling, I am still buying to hold for 5-10 years.

gimmi80

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #37 on: January 22, 2021, 04:06:52 AM »
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

GEICO ?

Optimiser

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #38 on: January 22, 2021, 10:24:14 AM »
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.
I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.
I only sold half my holdings at $32 actually.  I sold the rest at $39.5 which was kind of bittersweet if I had just waited a day or two on the initial sell.  Oh well, still almost beats my annual salary in gains.  I think Gamestop is worth more than $5, but no where close to $40.  Of course this could be another Tesla where price has nothing to do with underyling business or just the reddit guys playing with it.

r/wallstreetbets trying to force a short squeeze on GME is fascinating and super entertaining to watch right now.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #39 on: January 22, 2021, 07:59:31 PM »
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #40 on: January 22, 2021, 08:54:54 PM »
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.

I'm very tempted to do a bear spread on GME, with about 6 months duration. Puts are too expensive to buy alone. But the more I think about it, the more GME soars.

The r/wsb crowd is showing impressive solidarity for now, locking up shares and holding them out of the market, but each and every one of them plans to sell high someday, despite all the diamond hands talk.

When the shorts capitulate, and short interest drops, the longs will all try to sell before the price collapse. HOWEVER, short sellers know this too and will likely continue piling into short positions even after being forcibly liquidated because they know they will win eventually if they can hold out long enough. Bottom line, this could go on longer than expected, or it could end tomorrow. GME will go back to <$20, but with options you have to get the timing just right.

I tried to find examples of previous short squeezes to get a sense of the duration, but generally these are the result of good news so the stock stays up. Does anyone know of a resource where I could find a few dozen examples of short squeezes so that I could dig through to find a company that sucks and only squeezed because SI exceeded 100%?

bwall

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #41 on: January 23, 2021, 04:54:56 AM »
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.

I'm very tempted to do a bear spread on GME, with about 6 months duration. Puts are too expensive to buy alone. But the more I think about it, the more GME soars.

The r/wsb crowd is showing impressive solidarity for now, locking up shares and holding them out of the market, but each and every one of them plans to sell high someday, despite all the diamond hands talk.

When the shorts capitulate, and short interest drops, the longs will all try to sell before the price collapse. HOWEVER, short sellers know this too and will likely continue piling into short positions even after being forcibly liquidated because they know they will win eventually if they can hold out long enough. Bottom line, this could go on longer than expected, or it could end tomorrow. GME will go back to <$20, but with options you have to get the timing just right.

I tried to find examples of previous short squeezes to get a sense of the duration, but generally these are the result of good news so the stock stays up. Does anyone know of a resource where I could find a few dozen examples of short squeezes so that I could dig through to find a company that sucks and only squeezed because SI exceeded 100%?

I watched GME yesterday and also read a bit of the thread on WSB on reddit. As you say, super entertaining. For all the upside yesterday, it appears to be a gamma squeeze, not a short squeeze. I learned a new term, btw, gamma squeeze.

I'm waaaayyy to chicken (or too old) to participate in GME, b/c I don't feel like enough of an insider/retard to know that I have an edge.

The only massive short squeeze I know about was in 2008/09 (?) when Porsche tried to take over VW and it backfired. Stock went from a very elevated +/- 150 - 200 EUR to over 1000 EUR in a matter about an hour (or so). The stock was pretty elevated before the squeeze, prior to that it'd traded under 50 EUR for years. The short squeeze bankrupted Adolph Merckle, a billionaire (!) who then committed suicide after seeing his life's work vanish overnight.

But, to answer your specific question, I do not know of a resource that has examples of short squeezes listed. I'd also be interested in learning more about such, if you do find such a resource, please share.

Icecreamarsenal

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #42 on: January 23, 2021, 09:46:01 AM »
Congrats on gains @EricEng
My moonshots are
CCIV EV SPAC play
BNGO genomics
SENS only FDA approved continuous glucose monitoring

Less than 5% in these plays.

JetBlast

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #43 on: January 23, 2021, 10:26:26 AM »

SENS only FDA approved continuous glucose monitoring


Is this right?  My wife is Type 1 and wears a Medtronic CGM and insulin pump. Dexcom also makes a very popular combination pump and CGM system.

Chris Pascale

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #44 on: January 23, 2021, 12:58:42 PM »

One of my most entertaining purchases was MicroVision (MVIS) which I bought at a low of $0.20/share.  At some point, a group on github analyzed patents and realized both MVIS and Microsoft patents were intertwined, suggesting Microsoft was the big customer MVIS wasn't allowed to disclose.  The stock shot up rapidly after that, and I sold for an 8x-9x profit.  That was also one of the rare times where I saw the name "Renaissance Technologies" listed as a significant shareholder.

I'd bought some shares in 2014 maybe for $1.20 and it jumped up very nicely on some news that FedEx was testing with it.

So much better than my jump into WNDW - which [proposes to] make solar windows that can be used to build skyscrapers......until you check their income statement and see they have ZERO revenue. Interestingly enough, I made money twice on them, and apparently some people might have gotten really rich last year.

Fins: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WNDW/financials/

Mr. Green

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2021, 06:32:50 PM »
Reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets

It's a humorous subreddit to cruise from time to time but right now those guys and gals are putting a short squeeze on GameStop (ticker: GME) that is putting the pros to shame
 Apparently there's a user there who has been shorting for 17 months now and has turned a $53,000 beginning investment into just over $11,000,000 as of yesterday's close. Totally fascinating. It makes Bitcoin hype look like child's play.

Dibbels81

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2021, 05:32:56 AM »
Reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets

It's a humorous subreddit to cruise from time to time but right now those guys and gals are putting a short squeeze on GameStop (ticker: GME) that is putting the pros to shame
 Apparently there's a user there who has been shorting for 17 months now and has turned a $53,000 beginning investment into just over $11,000,000 as of yesterday's close. Totally fascinating. It makes Bitcoin hype look like child's play.

I typically look at Reddit forums with amusement, but this Gamestop story got my attention. They seem to be pumping Blackberry (BB) right now. Just for posterity sake, BB is currently at $14 (possibly 18 pre-market spike).

Also, GME pre-market is $91. WTF?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 05:38:35 AM by Dibbels81 »

MetalCap

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #47 on: January 25, 2021, 07:21:43 AM »
Just amazing and insane at the same time.

Who knew rocket emojis could do so much to the market.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #48 on: January 25, 2021, 07:45:49 AM »
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.
According to multiple news sources, they do have that kind of money.  They have apparently cornered the market enough that those with short positions can't cover.  So those who shorted the stock are watching as they lose multiples of their original investment, and can't get out - there aren't enough shares available to buy.


ChpBstrd - The stock has moved so fast, it left the options market behind.  Going out 2-12 months, I see options peaking at $60/sh or some $75/sh ... with the stock at $88/sh.

bwall

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Re: What are your moonshot investments?
« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2021, 08:21:27 AM »
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.
According to multiple news sources, they do have that kind of money.  They have apparently cornered the market enough that those with short positions can't cover.  So those who shorted the stock are watching as they lose multiples of their original investment, and can't get out - there aren't enough shares available to buy.


ChpBstrd - The stock has moved so fast, it left the options market behind.  Going out 2-12 months, I see options peaking at $60/sh or some $75/sh ... with the stock at $88/sh.

Many fortunes changed hands over the weekend. 1/22 calls topped out at $60, so every single strike price closed in the money. 1/29 expirations top out at $115, inter day high at $101. As i was writing this, the interlay high went to $108 with 25,000 options contracts changing hands at $115 strike price.
If the common can get close to $115, then we'll see another gamma squeeze later this week. If a short looked attractive at $40, imagine how it looks now at $90. 

Shorts aren't forced to cover if they can meet the margin call and institutions have the resources/lines of credit to meet the margin call if they so choose. So I think the short squeeze hasn't occurred yet. (!)

I read some chatter about the market makers being the ones that have had the screws put to them the most. They offered shares for short sale and are now forced to take a net long/short position or mark huge losses. I don't quite understand the infrastructure of Wall St. entirely, so it's a bit vague to me.