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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: J Boogie on December 08, 2020, 09:03:48 AM

Title: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 08, 2020, 09:03:48 AM
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on December 08, 2020, 09:46:29 AM
Yes, I'd be interested in hearing:

1) What these companies do.

2) What will cause the share price will go up 2x-6x. (In what time frame do you expect the increase to occur?)

3) Why did you pick these companies specifically?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: utaca on December 08, 2020, 10:13:03 AM
Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

I'm interested to hear your breakdown.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 08, 2020, 10:39:22 AM


MIND - Microcap that used to be in seismic leasing for fracking ops, got beaten down along with the industry, pivoted into marine sonar technology by purchasing Klein. Now they are seeing interest from governments who have begun to make orders. As a microcap it has the potential to more than double if they become a trusted name in marine sonar. Debt is minimal to non-existent.

CVM - just completed datalock on a long term cancer study. They are surging right now and probably will continue to do so. If the news is good, share price will go from the teens to close to/over a hundred. I'm unable to suss out whether or not the news will be good, but I like to have huge upside.

ORRCF - a unicorn of copper/gold mines, massive open pit in a friendly place - junior miner that will be prepping the site to sell to a major FCX or GOLD.

IPOB - Opendoor. Ibuying. Realtors simply do not provide value on par with the fees they earn, and this is likely the company that will be making the market more efficient. Time horizon to become a multibagger is likely more drawn out, but all the right people seem to be involved from Chamath on down to the rest of the team.

BTWNU - Peter Thiel SPAC focused on acquiring SE Asian startups. Peter Thiel has a good track record as an investor to put it mildly. I am purely on board to piggyback on his nose for sniffing out transformational companies in position to change the game. It's still close to the net asset value that SPACs enter the market with.

For MIND and ORRCF, I piggybacked on the research of Mariusz Skonieczny who might seem unprofessional but certainly makes sound arguments.

I have selected these companies because I think they are in the early innings of success.

IPOB is the most valuable at 1.3b and the others are mostly too small to merit any attention from institutional investors.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: vand on December 10, 2020, 02:54:53 AM
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on December 10, 2020, 06:37:13 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 10, 2020, 10:00:19 AM
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.

It requires you to time the bottom pretty well though - which I've had mixed success with. I got lucky timing an oil and gas bottom recently thanks to the vaccine news. I basically called the bottom by buyings tons of PBF (could have been any oil stock, but that one was really well positioned) and doubling on it in a couple weeks.

But if I would have tried to call the bottom just a few months earlier I would have halved my investment and then I would have needed the intestinal fortitude not to puke up my shares before the vaccine news hit just to break even. And to be honest it's not clear that $7 wasn't the bottom, and I wouldn't have been too shocked to see it hit $3.

People have tried to call the bottom with shipping and they've gotten absolutely wrecked. The new cycle might be coming or it might be a head fake with new lows on the way.

So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

I appreciate your comments though and I too am rotating significantly out of my high growth positions and into undervalued commodity producers and more reasonably valued blue chip stocks like UNH and TGT or, er, I mean index funds.





Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 10, 2020, 10:03:09 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on December 10, 2020, 10:56:18 AM
So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

Bold mine.

Very good points about cycles. I remember when the Bank of England decided to sell their gold reserves in 1999 when gold was at an all time (post Bretton Woods) low. The Swiss National Bank thought that was such a good idea that they followed suit, thus marking the bottom of the gold cycle that had peaked in 1980.
It never occurred to me until I read your post that crypto could potentially take market share from gold but I certainly see that as a very real possibility.

I've taken a great amount of pleasure in watching my small caps go up 4-5x since January and they're now between $4b and $10b in market cap, so they could still go up another 4-5x in the next years, or be taken over.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: vand on December 10, 2020, 11:49:34 AM
IMO the tech-led melt up is showing signs that its on its last legs (eg, AAPL and MSFT have not made new highs), and the next cycle will see many of today's out of favour investments reverse their fortunes.

I'm not in the business of picking out high growth microcap companies - I don't think that's a game I can win. I prefer to take a cyclical sector based approach with the view that oversupply built up over a the course of a bull market eventually lead to bear markets, and underinvestment during bear markets eventually create the imbalance conditions necessary for a bull market; this is the framework I use to go about my active investing.

I think all my active investments have the possibility to at least double over the next 4-5 years, and  I see as realistically over the 7 years:


gold can triple
silver & platinum can quintuple
gold miners have a possibility to return x10
Broad commodities will move up similarly
Weaker USD and rotation out of developed markets will drive Emerging Markets to at least triple
Rotation out of growth and into value will drive many obviously cheap sectors today (eg oil, tobacco) to triple

I don't know if any of these count as moonshots..  History shows that Bull markets in just about anything will easily climb 3-5 times over the course of its duration, so spotting a new bull market, getting on board and riding out the multi-year climb is a very realistic proposition to get these sort of returns, not just pie in the sky moonshoot.

It requires you to time the bottom pretty well though - which I've had mixed success with. I got lucky timing an oil and gas bottom recently thanks to the vaccine news. I basically called the bottom by buyings tons of PBF (could have been any oil stock, but that one was really well positioned) and doubling on it in a couple weeks.

But if I would have tried to call the bottom just a few months earlier I would have halved my investment and then I would have needed the intestinal fortitude not to puke up my shares before the vaccine news hit just to break even. And to be honest it's not clear that $7 wasn't the bottom, and I wouldn't have been too shocked to see it hit $3.

People have tried to call the bottom with shipping and they've gotten absolutely wrecked. The new cycle might be coming or it might be a head fake with new lows on the way.

So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

I appreciate your comments though and I too am rotating significantly out of my high growth positions and into undervalued commodity producers and more reasonably valued blue chip stocks like UNH and TGT or, er, I mean index funds.

I  agree that determining the bottom of a market cycle is difficult. That said though, I don't think its strictly necessary. I look for extremes in comparative valuations and then accumulate over a couple of years and then re-evaluate my investment thesis after 2-3 years. If the market is not showing signs of recovery then I move my money elsewhere and try something else.  Powerful major trends take years to unfold, and you don't need to nail the bottom in order to still make several times your money if indeed the market develops into a powerful full blown bull market.


You are right that there are secular trends that sometimes kill off cyclicality, but in the majority of cases it isn't so. Everyone thinks big tech is going to eat the world today, but a decade ago MSFT was a value share trading on 7 times earnings. Same for AAPL, which was trading for less than its net cash position. Some of today's beaten down value stocks will be tomorrow's darlings and trading at crazy valuations a decade from now because the world around us will have changed.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on December 10, 2020, 11:52:46 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: vand on December 10, 2020, 11:53:14 AM
So there are certainly risks when it comes to cyclical investing. Some cycles might never come back as strong. Tobacco use might permanently decline as populations grow less interested due to the risks and the increase in time spent indoors online. Crypto might eat into gold's longstanding position as a value store. The EV revolution might happen sooner than we think.

And while you are right that doubling and tripling is possible over 5 year stretches, there can be far more upside to individual secular stocks, especially small caps that garner no attention from market makers.

Bold mine.

Very good points about cycles. I remember when the Bank of England decided to sell their gold reserves in 1999 when gold was at an all time (post Bretton Woods) low. The Swiss National Bank thought that was such a good idea that they followed suit, thus marking the bottom of the gold cycle that had peaked in 1980.
It never occurred to me until I read your post that crypto could potentially take market share from gold but I certainly see that as a very real possibility.

I've taken a great amount of pleasure in watching my small caps go up 4-5x since January and they're now between $4b and $10b in market cap, so they could still go up another 4-5x in the next years, or be taken over.

I have nothing at all against Crypto, but the question that everyone is asking "Is Crypto The New Gold?" is the sort of question that gets asked right at the peak of a mania and makes me sure very sure that my gold isn't going to suddenly become worthless.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Huffduf41 on December 10, 2020, 12:31:42 PM
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.


You made my ears perk up w/ IPOB since I think the fees associated w/ selling are egregious.  IMHO 1% isn't enough savings to dump the traditional realtor.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on December 10, 2020, 01:08:51 PM
ABNB, apparently.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Telecaster on December 10, 2020, 01:16:31 PM
Back in May I bought some PK, which is a REIT that owns Hilton-branded hotels and resorts.  Mostly higher end properties.  It was beat down about 2/3 off its normal trading range.  I assumed that travel will return eventually and the losses are temporary.  It was a good deal then, I'm not sure it is as good of a deal now. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on December 10, 2020, 01:19:45 PM
I have nothing at all against Crypto, but the question that everyone is asking "Is Crypto The New Gold?" is the sort of question that gets asked right at the peak of a mania and makes me sure very sure that my gold isn't going to suddenly become worthless.

I'm always fascinated how two people can look at the same data and come up with completely different conclusions as to the best course of action.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Ricochet on December 10, 2020, 01:25:01 PM
I've been really lucky with buying up energy stocks like SM, CPE, ET, OXY during the very bottom (OASIS did go bankrupt but I was only in for 1k) My real shot at the moon is FNMA (fannie mae), hoping the government will let go of this money-slave and let them return profits to the investors.
Like someone mentioned before, these are fun money etrade stocks, not my 401k / IRAs.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 10, 2020, 01:29:35 PM
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.


You made my ears perk up w/ IPOB since I think the fees associated w/ selling are egregious.  IMHO 1% isn't enough savings to dump the traditional realtor.

Perhaps, but the value proposition really is the immediate offer and the insane realtor fee simply gives them the room to make lucrative offers with good enough margins to make it worthwhile. The problem they are solving is the illiquidity of residential real estate.

The *feeling* they are hoping to provide is akin to weightlessness for homeowners who previously felt encumbered and unable to consider moving if a new opportunity presented itself. Granted OpenDoor can't do anything about kids in school, goodbyes to neighbors etc, but the purely administrative reasons for moving being a headache can be done away with. I think opendoor has a future state plan that includes handling furniture packing & moving and maybe even post office address and transitioning utilities to new owners etc, I'm not totally sure. It would make sense though.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: 3toesloth on December 10, 2020, 05:51:24 PM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on December 10, 2020, 05:59:31 PM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.

Just an observation, but Nikola and Tesla are not "new" economy companies. They manufacture a product that is extremely capital intensive just like many others have before.

Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: 3toesloth on December 10, 2020, 06:12:01 PM
Just an observation, but Nikola and Tesla are not "new" economy companies. They manufacture a product that is extremely capital intensive just like many others have before.

Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

You're right on both comments. However, Nikola and Tesla are "new" in that they are not using traditional financing and instead are endlessly issuing shares (not sure on Nikola). Yeah that's somewhat different from how things used to be done.

As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on December 10, 2020, 06:22:41 PM
As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.

Is that true? I mean, you could buy your own taxi medallion in NYC, but you owned all the profit. You didn't have to share with anyone other than your bank if you had a loan. But if you drive for Radio Cab in Portland, OR you drove their cab. They spent the money to buy the cab.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: 3toesloth on December 10, 2020, 07:04:46 PM
As for Dash and the others, there have always been taxis and delivery companies where the driver also owned the car they were driving. Not really anything new. Small town taxis and delivery is still this way as economies of scale are impossible.

Is that true? I mean, you could buy your own taxi medallion in NYC, but you owned all the profit. You didn't have to share with anyone other than your bank if you had a loan. But if you drive for Radio Cab in Portland, OR you drove their cab. They spent the money to buy the cab.
I suspect that originally taxis were majority owner operators in most areas. Then as larger companies formed they undercut the owner operators until they only exist in small to medium towns. The medallion system was to limit the number of taxis and even there large companies formed. The only real economy of scale with Uber or Lift is the app. How they are losing money when all they have to do is advertise and maintain the app is crazy in my opinion. I think if drivers valued the miles on their cars correctly the economics of drivers would be poor.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 11, 2020, 12:39:36 AM
Their losses are due to two things- offering customers and drivers incentives like discounts and referral bonuses which goes under the umbrella of "sales and marketing" and then there are the R&D expenses.

R&D is self inflicted and the promotions are just mutually assured antiprofitability. A great thing for customers, the combination of fierce competition and investors willing to subsidize your rides in hopes that someday they won't have to anymore. Since they are competing, neither will want to be the one who takes the foot off the growth pedal first, and their growth method is push notifications offering you free rides.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 11, 2020, 12:53:51 AM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: vand on December 11, 2020, 02:20:07 AM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

The scaleability that the digital economy allows makes the investment case for new-economy stocks like Uber and AirBnB easy to make, but scalability itseif is a danger because the same advantages are available to your competitor, allowing someone with an even better business idea to easily enter and put today's best companies to the wall. 

The case for Philip Morris is much harder to make by the same parameters, but PM is one of the greatest stocks in history and has continually defied "business logic" for decade upon decade.  Oh, and they actually make money, too. Lots of money.  Track records count for something.

To make the counter-case for Tobacco: in a world where Jeff Bezos' warcry of "your margin is my opportunity" has carried the torch for the new economy, Tobacco is an old industry that is entirely Amazon-proof.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 11, 2020, 03:20:19 AM
My moonshot was/is the Covid-19 recovery stocks.

Back in March, I looked at individual companies beaten down by the lockdowns.  I set up a screen, where I checked that their -66% or greater drop was timed with the outbreak (dropping in steps, like the US market, in March).  Some companies might not make it, so I screened for indebtedness with debt/equity ratio.  Then I bought dozens of stocks from different areas... and waited.

Some stocks recovered rapidly off the depths of the March panic, but there was still an uncertain amount of time left until these stocks recovered or went bankrupt.  After being approved for options trading, I switched many of my positions from individual stocks, to call options on those same stocks.  So that's where I'm at now.

Dine Brand's stock (DIN) doubled quickly after I bought it, so I wound up selling it.

One of my most entertaining purchases was MicroVision (MVIS) which I bought at a low of $0.20/share.  At some point, a group on github analyzed patents and realized both MVIS and Microsoft patents were intertwined, suggesting Microsoft was the big customer MVIS wasn't allowed to disclose.  The stock shot up rapidly after that, and I sold for an 8x-9x profit.  That was also one of the rare times where I saw the name "Renaissance Technologies" listed as a significant shareholder.

I originally bought Macy's stock, but later switched to long-dated call options.  In a bankruptcy, I figured stock and options both go to $0.  Options provided leverage and/or reducing the amount of money I have at risk.

In the Oil Investments thread I mentioned XOP call options, which is the best way to go with the oil sector.  Unlike individual companies that go bankrupt, XOP is an ETF with a variety of holdings.  I had 2 oil stocks go bankrupt, both small individual companies... and I only bought 4 oil stocks, so that's saying something.

I bought call options on Carnival Cruises, which probably had the most spectacular day when the vaccine was announced with 95% effectiveness.  In part of one day, the options were up +100%, and then slid down to +70% or so.  You see that somewhat reflected in the stock, up +33% in 1 month, but still -55% YTD.  I haven't sold yet - I expect more gains as vaccinations become widespread, and a recovery grows more likely.

We'll see...
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on December 11, 2020, 08:32:12 AM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

The scaleability that the digital economy allows makes the investment case for new-economy stocks like Uber and AirBnB easy to make, but scalability itseif is a danger because the same advantages are available to your competitor, allowing someone with an even better business idea to easily enter and put today's best companies to the wall. 

The case for Philip Morris is much harder to make by the same parameters, but PM is one of the greatest stocks in history and has continually defied "business logic" for decade upon decade.  Oh, and they actually make money, too. Lots of money.  Track records count for something.

To make the counter-case for Tobacco: in a world where Jeff Bezos' warcry of "your margin is my opportunity" has carried the torch for the new economy, Tobacco is an old industry that is entirely Amazon-proof.

Ha. Well perhaps the warcry they all rally around would be more like "your unaddicted children are my opportunity"

These days when it comes to new disruptive companies and barriers to entry, it all revolves around attention. People only have so much of it, and whichever companies roll off the tongue and become verbs in our everyday speech end up being the winners.

Of course, you have to build a damn good product, but that should go without saying.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: 3toesloth on December 11, 2020, 11:13:10 AM
My thesis is that growth on many of these companies have slowed down considerably, many in 2018. While they are still valued like tech companies. Future will tell, but since I'm buying puts I won't be down much if it goes the other way.
MustacheAndaHalf
Like your ideas too, might try to find some myself.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on January 13, 2021, 09:35:05 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: hodedofome on January 13, 2021, 11:38:02 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 13, 2021, 12:37:59 PM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Gatzbie on January 13, 2021, 05:41:30 PM
VTSAX
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on January 13, 2021, 07:21:19 PM
RECAF. I posted about it in the ďShoot, I just stock pickedĒ thread.

Within a couple months they will have proven theyíre sitting on a vast basin of petroleum. It could be another West Texas in which case the stock could be a 100-bagger or more.

Or they could find nothing and it goes bust.

Or somewhere in between.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 14, 2021, 09:17:39 AM
Now that I'm more open about some of my holdings ...

Back in May I bought some PK, which is a REIT that owns Hilton-branded hotels and resorts.
I bought it 3 months before your post (Sep 2020), and it's up almost 70% since then.  Hope you held on!  It's not quite ripe to sell, but it looks close.

I've been really lucky with buying up energy stocks like SM, CPE, ET, OXY during the very bottom (OASIS did go bankrupt but I was only in for 1k)
I held Oasis Petroleum (OAS) into bankruptcy, but only lost -40%!  I got lucky when naive investors started buying after bankruptcy, or I'd have lost more.

In the past 6 months, CPE gained +230% and OXY +123%.  Which sounds like the party is over, but compared to 1 year ago, OXY is still down almost -50% and CPE almost -60%.  If a reopening/recovery benefits oil, I expect it to keep moving away from historic lows.  Which is also not a bad time to buy, in my view.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on January 20, 2021, 03:01:38 PM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.
I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.
I only sold half my holdings at $32 actually.  I sold the rest at $39.5 which was kind of bittersweet if I had just waited a day or two on the initial sell.  Oh well, still almost beats my annual salary in gains.  I think Gamestop is worth more than $5, but no where close to $40.  Of course this could be another Tesla where price has nothing to do with underyling business or just the reddit guys playing with it.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Tester on January 20, 2021, 10:33:13 PM
For me it was plug power and roku.
For roku I missed thr IPO and bought two shares at 45 usd, I am up 900%
For plug power I kept buying since 2017, around 1k usd in total, I am up 1000 %.
If only I would have bought more :-).
I did not buy more as this is not my normal invesent, I buy index funds.

This year my play account is up 180% - as I also have shares from Ford, GM, Nokia (I know...).
I have some other shares which at least doubled, like Microsoft, solar edge, fiverr international...

And some time ago I bought Baba at 65 USD, sold them at 180 as I did not want to sell AMZN shares and I needed some money to finish a house.

All in all it is a good what if for me, but I am not gambling, I am still buying to hold for 5-10 years.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: gimmi80 on January 22, 2021, 04:06:52 AM
Puts on all of these "new" economy companies that never seem to be able to make money. Dash, AirBNB, Nicola, Tesla, Uber, food delivery package companies. Haven't bought them all yet, but always looking for more.
Dash, Airbnb, and Uber are "new" economy companies in that they are something very different from times before. This is because they are able to leverage other peoples' capital to deliver their core offering. When times are good they do good but when times are bad they don't have to pay for their idled capital, because it was never theirs!

Yeah, I wouldn't bet against sharing economy plays in general. They can be profitable no problem but investors prefer growth over profits these days. If you prioritize profitability over growth, you communicate to investors you're out of your growth phase and ready to be valued like a regular dividend paying stock like coke or geico.

GEICO ?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Optimiser on January 22, 2021, 10:24:14 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.
I watched from the sidelines. I'm not a gamer and I don't know that world at all. I know Mr. Big Short pushed his chips in, but I figured GME management could have just as easily obliterated shareholder value as they kept trying failed strategies.

Congrats on your big gains :)
Oh the company is in huge trouble long term.  However, stock was way overbeaten down when it was sitting at $5.  As in they could liquidate all capital and come out ahead of market cap.  They have little competition in physical game stores anymore, especially resale of used games.  Their profits on reselling used is really good (they pay out little, but people still sell to them).  They are usually cheapest source in online used sales (if you can find it in stock) and really need to focus on that long term.  Long term future also depends on what kind of deals they make with console companies.

There is tons of short interest in Gamestop, but I think they are a few years ahead of time.
Just turned around and sold my Gamestop stock for $32 after buying in at ~$5.  Heck of a short term gain, but worth it because I don't see that price sticking until I reach 1 year.  That moonshot worked out.

Smart move, GameStop is not a company to own long term unless you like losing money.

The Reddit wall street bets crowd* is all over this one, encouraging each other to hold the stock for longer or go all-in buying calls. I think the short squeeze will end at some point, and that'll be the time to buy puts or bearish spreads with plenty of duration.

*I watch that circus for the loss porn.
I only sold half my holdings at $32 actually.  I sold the rest at $39.5 which was kind of bittersweet if I had just waited a day or two on the initial sell.  Oh well, still almost beats my annual salary in gains.  I think Gamestop is worth more than $5, but no where close to $40.  Of course this could be another Tesla where price has nothing to do with underyling business or just the reddit guys playing with it.

r/wallstreetbets trying to force a short squeeze on GME is fascinating and super entertaining to watch right now.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 22, 2021, 07:59:31 PM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 22, 2021, 08:54:54 PM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.

I'm very tempted to do a bear spread on GME, with about 6 months duration. Puts are too expensive to buy alone. But the more I think about it, the more GME soars.

The r/wsb crowd is showing impressive solidarity for now, locking up shares and holding them out of the market, but each and every one of them plans to sell high someday, despite all the diamond hands talk.

When the shorts capitulate, and short interest drops, the longs will all try to sell before the price collapse. HOWEVER, short sellers know this too and will likely continue piling into short positions even after being forcibly liquidated because they know they will win eventually if they can hold out long enough. Bottom line, this could go on longer than expected, or it could end tomorrow. GME will go back to <$20, but with options you have to get the timing just right.

I tried to find examples of previous short squeezes to get a sense of the duration, but generally these are the result of good news so the stock stays up. Does anyone know of a resource where I could find a few dozen examples of short squeezes so that I could dig through to find a company that sucks and only squeezed because SI exceeded 100%?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on January 23, 2021, 04:54:56 AM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.

gimmi80 / J Boogie - Odd example, because GEICO is a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.  You can't buy GEICO stock, and parent company BRK has traditionally been reluctant to pay dividends.

I'm very tempted to do a bear spread on GME, with about 6 months duration. Puts are too expensive to buy alone. But the more I think about it, the more GME soars.

The r/wsb crowd is showing impressive solidarity for now, locking up shares and holding them out of the market, but each and every one of them plans to sell high someday, despite all the diamond hands talk.

When the shorts capitulate, and short interest drops, the longs will all try to sell before the price collapse. HOWEVER, short sellers know this too and will likely continue piling into short positions even after being forcibly liquidated because they know they will win eventually if they can hold out long enough. Bottom line, this could go on longer than expected, or it could end tomorrow. GME will go back to <$20, but with options you have to get the timing just right.

I tried to find examples of previous short squeezes to get a sense of the duration, but generally these are the result of good news so the stock stays up. Does anyone know of a resource where I could find a few dozen examples of short squeezes so that I could dig through to find a company that sucks and only squeezed because SI exceeded 100%?

I watched GME yesterday and also read a bit of the thread on WSB on reddit. As you say, super entertaining. For all the upside yesterday, it appears to be a gamma squeeze, not a short squeeze. I learned a new term, btw, gamma squeeze.

I'm waaaayyy to chicken (or too old) to participate in GME, b/c I don't feel like enough of an insider/retard to know that I have an edge.

The only massive short squeeze I know about was in 2008/09 (?) when Porsche tried to take over VW and it backfired. Stock went from a very elevated +/- 150 - 200 EUR to over 1000 EUR in a matter about an hour (or so). The stock was pretty elevated before the squeeze, prior to that it'd traded under 50 EUR for years. The short squeeze bankrupted Adolph Merckle, a billionaire (!) who then committed suicide after seeing his life's work vanish overnight.

But, to answer your specific question, I do not know of a resource that has examples of short squeezes listed. I'd also be interested in learning more about such, if you do find such a resource, please share.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on January 23, 2021, 09:46:01 AM
Congrats on gains @EricEng
My moonshots are
CCIV EV SPAC play
BNGO genomics
SENS only FDA approved continuous glucose monitoring

Less than 5% in these plays.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: JetBlast on January 23, 2021, 10:26:26 AM

SENS only FDA approved continuous glucose monitoring


Is this right?  My wife is Type 1 and wears a Medtronic CGM and insulin pump. Dexcom also makes a very popular combination pump and CGM system.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Chris Pascale on January 23, 2021, 12:58:42 PM

One of my most entertaining purchases was MicroVision (MVIS) which I bought at a low of $0.20/share.  At some point, a group on github analyzed patents and realized both MVIS and Microsoft patents were intertwined, suggesting Microsoft was the big customer MVIS wasn't allowed to disclose.  The stock shot up rapidly after that, and I sold for an 8x-9x profit.  That was also one of the rare times where I saw the name "Renaissance Technologies" listed as a significant shareholder.

I'd bought some shares in 2014 maybe for $1.20 and it jumped up very nicely on some news that FedEx was testing with it.

So much better than my jump into WNDW - which [proposes to] make solar windows that can be used to build skyscrapers......until you check their income statement and see they have ZERO revenue. Interestingly enough, I made money twice on them, and apparently some people might have gotten really rich last year.

Fins: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WNDW/financials/
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Mr. Green on January 23, 2021, 06:32:50 PM
Reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets

It's a humorous subreddit to cruise from time to time but right now those guys and gals are putting a short squeeze on GameStop (ticker: GME) that is putting the pros to shame
 Apparently there's a user there who has been shorting for 17 months now and has turned a $53,000 beginning investment into just over $11,000,000 as of yesterday's close. Totally fascinating. It makes Bitcoin hype look like child's play.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Dibbels81 on January 25, 2021, 05:32:56 AM
Reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets

It's a humorous subreddit to cruise from time to time but right now those guys and gals are putting a short squeeze on GameStop (ticker: GME) that is putting the pros to shame
 Apparently there's a user there who has been shorting for 17 months now and has turned a $53,000 beginning investment into just over $11,000,000 as of yesterday's close. Totally fascinating. It makes Bitcoin hype look like child's play.

I typically look at Reddit forums with amusement, but this Gamestop story got my attention. They seem to be pumping Blackberry (BB) right now. Just for posterity sake, BB is currently at $14 (possibly 18 pre-market spike).

Also, GME pre-market is $91. WTF?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MetalCap on January 25, 2021, 07:21:43 AM
Just amazing and insane at the same time.

Who knew rocket emojis could do so much to the market.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 25, 2021, 07:45:49 AM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.
According to multiple news sources, they do have that kind of money.  They have apparently cornered the market enough that those with short positions can't cover.  So those who shorted the stock are watching as they lose multiples of their original investment, and can't get out - there aren't enough shares available to buy.


ChpBstrd - The stock has moved so fast, it left the options market behind.  Going out 2-12 months, I see options peaking at $60/sh or some $75/sh ... with the stock at $88/sh.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on January 25, 2021, 08:21:27 AM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.
According to multiple news sources, they do have that kind of money.  They have apparently cornered the market enough that those with short positions can't cover.  So those who shorted the stock are watching as they lose multiples of their original investment, and can't get out - there aren't enough shares available to buy.


ChpBstrd - The stock has moved so fast, it left the options market behind.  Going out 2-12 months, I see options peaking at $60/sh or some $75/sh ... with the stock at $88/sh.

Many fortunes changed hands over the weekend. 1/22 calls topped out at $60, so every single strike price closed in the money. 1/29 expirations top out at $115, inter day high at $101. As i was writing this, the interlay high went to $108 with 25,000 options contracts changing hands at $115 strike price.
If the common can get close to $115, then we'll see another gamma squeeze later this week. If a short looked attractive at $40, imagine how it looks now at $90. 

Shorts aren't forced to cover if they can meet the margin call and institutions have the resources/lines of credit to meet the margin call if they so choose. So I think the short squeeze hasn't occurred yet. (!)

I read some chatter about the market makers being the ones that have had the screws put to them the most. They offered shares for short sale and are now forced to take a net long/short position or mark huge losses. I don't quite understand the infrastructure of Wall St. entirely, so it's a bit vague to me.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 25, 2021, 08:56:14 AM
Oof. Market makers are just playing with shorts. AMC, Blackberry, Gamestop...
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 25, 2021, 08:57:47 AM
I only read one fascinating post about the market structure problem for market makers, so I hope others can describe it better.  Apparently market makers want to limit their losses... they sell you a $50/sh call option, then buy a $55/sh call to limit their loss.

Wall street bets has pushed the stock price above the top call option price.  So the market maker sells the $60/sh call option, but they are completely exposed.  The more the stock moves up, the more they lose.  And there's nothing they can do about it, because there's no market to protect their exposure - the market is trading at the edge.

Today an attempt was made to repair that by adding call options up to $115/sh.  But the stock doubled today, in a few hours of trading.  So the stock price is again well over the top call option price, and market makers are again exposed to unlimited losses they can't hedge.  Since most of the trading is at the edge of the market, there's nothing of a higher price to buy.

This does seem to be a unique event, but I have no idea what happens next.  Buffet mentioned he doesn't participate in a market when the rules change and he no longer knows what they are... that seems to apply here.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on January 25, 2021, 09:42:50 AM
That's a good explanation, thank you. Now I understand.

Going long the top call strike price was the last chance for the market makers to hedge any underlying position. Once the stock blew through that number, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth--an no ability to hedge a naked position.

In the first hour of trading GME clocked in at $158 (!). I see more fortunes changing hands this week. The talk is still of the short squeeze is yet to happen. Any short covering to date just frees up more shares available to be shorted at a (increasingly attractive) higher basis. Until the short interest actually drops (how often is short interest reported?) the real short squeeze has yet to hit.

My participation is limited to a bag of popcorn.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 25, 2021, 02:47:01 PM
Optimiser - Game Stop (GME) surged +51% on Friday as billions of dollars of their shares were traded.  Looks like r/wallstreetbets got their wish, although I doubt they have that kind of money.
According to multiple news sources, they do have that kind of money.  They have apparently cornered the market enough that those with short positions can't cover.  So those who shorted the stock are watching as they lose multiples of their original investment, and can't get out - there aren't enough shares available to buy.


ChpBstrd - The stock has moved so fast, it left the options market behind.  Going out 2-12 months, I see options peaking at $60/sh or some $75/sh ... with the stock at $88/sh.

Many fortunes changed hands over the weekend. 1/22 calls topped out at $60, so every single strike price closed in the money. 1/29 expirations top out at $115, inter day high at $101. As i was writing this, the interlay high went to $108 with 25,000 options contracts changing hands at $115 strike price.
If the common can get close to $115, then we'll see another gamma squeeze later this week. If a short looked attractive at $40, imagine how it looks now at $90. 

Shorts aren't forced to cover if they can meet the margin call and institutions have the resources/lines of credit to meet the margin call if they so choose. So I think the short squeeze hasn't occurred yet. (!)

I read some chatter about the market makers being the ones that have had the screws put to them the most. They offered shares for short sale and are now forced to take a net long/short position or mark huge losses. I don't quite understand the infrastructure of Wall St. entirely, so it's a bit vague to me.

@bwall you allude to some interesting questions:

1) How did the market makers offer more shares to short than were in existence? Presumably they used derivatives, like long call options bought at the low strikes, to offset the risk of loaning the obligation to supply shares to someone else, earning high interest rates for doing so. What is the expiration date of those call options?! In theory, the market makers have not suffered major damage yet - their calls went up while their liability also went up - but now their options are expiring. Can they just roll their calls to a future date and let the shorts continue to hold out? Does the interest rate paid by the shorts cover the enormous IV now priced into GME calls? If some of the shorts declare bankruptcy....?

2) We retail investors seem to think hedge funds like Citron short stocks the same way we do, and that there's a broker who will automatically liquidate their positions or require more collateral if it falls a certain amount. It might work more like, the hedge fund borrows money at 2 or 3% and puts its diversified portfolio up as collateral for a short position. If the short position does awful, due to a short squeeze, then the hedge fund can either give up its collateral to cover the cost of exiting or continue the loan for a longer time if they have not yet hit limits on the value of their collateral. If this is the scenario, and the hedge funds have long positions that are rapidly appreciating or more capital they can deploy, then they might be inclined to try outlasting the short squeeze. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on January 25, 2021, 06:24:53 PM

SENS only FDA approved continuous glucose monitoring


Is this right?  My wife is Type 1 and wears a Medtronic CGM and insulin pump. Dexcom also makes a very popular combination pump and CGM system.

It's not right.  The stock shot up recently because a regional health care insurance provider approved coverage for their particular monitor.
I'm out of the position with a healthy profit.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Optimiser on January 26, 2021, 03:10:11 PM
I'm feeling really good about my GME stock right now. I obviously wish I had put more in, but what a wild ride.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on January 26, 2021, 03:24:59 PM
PTF
I have a "moonshot" but I'll wait until the GME stuff dies down.   
Wish I was long on a short squeeze....   but I'm retired and don't have time for that sort of stuff.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: bwall on January 26, 2021, 07:52:49 PM
@ChpBstrd : Thank you for the possible explanations . I think that #1 & #2 as you describe them seem to be imminently reasonable.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: By the River on January 27, 2021, 09:28:06 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I just read this thread today and saw this entry.  I thought great job, then I saw that you sold out at 32 and 39 price points.  Still a very good job on the trades.  Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: lutorm on January 27, 2021, 03:50:08 PM
My moonshot investment is my employer.... if for no other reason than that they keep giving me stocks faster than I can get rid of them...
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on January 29, 2021, 09:37:11 AM


MIND - Microcap that used to be in seismic leasing for fracking ops, got beaten down along with the industry, pivoted into marine sonar technology by purchasing Klein. Now they are seeing interest from governments who have begun to make orders. As a microcap it has the potential to more than double if they become a trusted name in marine sonar. Debt is minimal to non-existent.

CVM - just completed datalock on a long term cancer study. They are surging right now and probably will continue to do so. If the news is good, share price will go from the teens to close to/over a hundred. I'm unable to suss out whether or not the news will be good, but I like to have huge upside.

ORRCF - a unicorn of copper/gold mines, massive open pit in a friendly place - junior miner that will be prepping the site to sell to a major FCX or GOLD.

IPOB - Opendoor. Ibuying. Realtors simply do not provide value on par with the fees they earn, and this is likely the company that will be making the market more efficient. Time horizon to become a multibagger is likely more drawn out, but all the right people seem to be involved from Chamath on down to the rest of the team.

BTWNU - Peter Thiel SPAC focused on acquiring SE Asian startups. Peter Thiel has a good track record as an investor to put it mildly. I am purely on board to piggyback on his nose for sniffing out transformational companies in position to change the game. It's still close to the net asset value that SPACs enter the market with.

For MIND and ORRCF, I piggybacked on the research of Mariusz Skonieczny who might seem unprofessional but certainly makes sound arguments.

I have selected these companies because I think they are in the early innings of success.

IPOB is the most valuable at 1.3b and the others are mostly too small to merit any attention from institutional investors.

@J Boogie hopefully you bought ORRCF this summer at $0.15 - its trading at $1.5x today for 10x - these type of returns are not out of the ordinary for junior or exploratory mining companies, but i have also seen them not be bought by the major players and then they have to do the work and develop the mines on their own. it looks like no 43-101 documentation has been completed and the data available is for resource estimates only, no current or proven reserves. the project is also directly adjacent to a river, which can complicate an already complicated permitting process in Mexico

Mexico can be a great or dangerous place to be a miner, penasquito - a newmont mine -  has had several shutdowns over the years due to labor strikes with damage to the facility. i worked with consultants that visited a mine north of durango, mx where they had to fly to the mine, because driving by car was to dangerous due to cartels fighting for territory. you never know

with that said, i plan to invest in some junior miners this year
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: BoostJunky on January 29, 2021, 04:49:13 PM

@J Boogie
with that said, i plan to invest in some junior miners this year
[/quote]

thoughts on which?

I love taking money I normally would blow in a casino and giving it a shot on these.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on February 02, 2021, 09:22:24 AM


MIND - Microcap that used to be in seismic leasing for fracking ops, got beaten down along with the industry, pivoted into marine sonar technology by purchasing Klein. Now they are seeing interest from governments who have begun to make orders. As a microcap it has the potential to more than double if they become a trusted name in marine sonar. Debt is minimal to non-existent.

CVM - just completed datalock on a long term cancer study. They are surging right now and probably will continue to do so. If the news is good, share price will go from the teens to close to/over a hundred. I'm unable to suss out whether or not the news will be good, but I like to have huge upside.

ORRCF - a unicorn of copper/gold mines, massive open pit in a friendly place - junior miner that will be prepping the site to sell to a major FCX or GOLD.

IPOB - Opendoor. Ibuying. Realtors simply do not provide value on par with the fees they earn, and this is likely the company that will be making the market more efficient. Time horizon to become a multibagger is likely more drawn out, but all the right people seem to be involved from Chamath on down to the rest of the team.

BTWNU - Peter Thiel SPAC focused on acquiring SE Asian startups. Peter Thiel has a good track record as an investor to put it mildly. I am purely on board to piggyback on his nose for sniffing out transformational companies in position to change the game. It's still close to the net asset value that SPACs enter the market with.

For MIND and ORRCF, I piggybacked on the research of Mariusz Skonieczny who might seem unprofessional but certainly makes sound arguments.

I have selected these companies because I think they are in the early innings of success.

IPOB is the most valuable at 1.3b and the others are mostly too small to merit any attention from institutional investors.

@J Boogie hopefully you bought ORRCF this summer at $0.15 - its trading at $1.5x today for 10x - these type of returns are not out of the ordinary for junior or exploratory mining companies, but i have also seen them not be bought by the major players and then they have to do the work and develop the mines on their own. it looks like no 43-101 documentation has been completed and the data available is for resource estimates only, no current or proven reserves. the project is also directly adjacent to a river, which can complicate an already complicated permitting process in Mexico

Mexico can be a great or dangerous place to be a miner, penasquito - a newmont mine -  has had several shutdowns over the years due to labor strikes with damage to the facility. i worked with consultants that visited a mine north of durango, mx where they had to fly to the mine, because driving by car was to dangerous due to cartels fighting for territory. you never know

with that said, i plan to invest in some junior miners this year

I wish. I didn't get in Oroco until it was at a dollar and then got back in at 1.30 after taking gains at 1.60.

So far CVM has treated me the best and suspect it has plenty of gains ahead once the data gets published. I sold off a bit on the short squeeze but am buying dips back in.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: phildonnia on February 02, 2021, 10:24:29 AM
I put $40k in USO back in 2015, on the theory that it couldn't possibly get any lower.  That investment is now worth $15k.  Now it really can't possibly get any lower, right?  The "moon shot" is the hope that it will return to the 2008 price, though there's not much hope of that in the near term.   There's been a oil price-war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, followed by a huge drop in the demand for oil. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 02, 2021, 10:37:51 AM
I put $40k in USO back in 2015, on the theory that it couldn't possibly get any lower.  That investment is now worth $15k.  Now it really can't possibly get any lower, right?  The "moon shot" is the hope that it will return to the 2008 price, though there's not much hope of that in the near term.   There's been a oil price-war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, followed by a huge drop in the demand for oil.

IDK. Myself and everyone I know is longing for the days of a post-COVID airline vacation. Thousands of people are set to return to commuting instead of working virtually. There is a case that the classic cyclical nature of the oil market has reached a nadir in the pandemic, and now the supply capacity needed to handle a post-COVID economic boom has shriveled.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on February 02, 2021, 12:16:08 PM
I put $40k in USO back in 2015, on the theory that it couldn't possibly get any lower.  That investment is now worth $15k.  Now it really can't possibly get any lower, right?  The "moon shot" is the hope that it will return to the 2008 price, though there's not much hope of that in the near term.   There's been a oil price-war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, followed by a huge drop in the demand for oil.

IDK. Myself and everyone I know is longing for the days of a post-COVID airline vacation. Thousands of people are set to return to commuting instead of working virtually. There is a case that the classic cyclical nature of the oil market has reached a nadir in the pandemic, and now the supply capacity needed to handle a post-COVID economic boom has shriveled.

COHN  bought 3/6/2008, hey I know they are heavy in CDO's, but this ($2/share x500 shares) has to be the bottom, right?
Two stock reverse splits later 5shares @18.4
Holding for entertainment and educational value only.   But COHN is currently down only 91%, which is better than down 98% as it was for a while.
Oh yea, it changed names and tickers for a while COHN to IFMI to COHN.  I found out later that they were mostly in 'junior tranches' - think bottom of the airplane or Ponzi scheme. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on February 02, 2021, 01:02:19 PM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

I just read this thread today and saw this entry.  I thought great job, then I saw that you sold out at 32 and 39 price points.  Still a very good job on the trades.  Hindsight is 20/20 and all that.
Ugh, yeah.  I sold out before hearing about any of this Reddit stuff.  Missed out a potential huge gain had I hit peak.  Still did better than friend who bought in at $32, rode it until it crashed and will likely ride it into the ground...on borrowed money.

I did incidentally buy back in during the crash for around $200 when they restricted buying initially (Ameritrade let me oddly) and sold end of the day last Friday for $318 which is apparently the last  peak we will see in that realm.  Nice 50%+ return.  I was trying to buy when it was around $120 during that crash, but everything was overloaded and not responding.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on February 12, 2021, 10:58:06 AM

@J Boogie
with that said, i plan to invest in some junior miners this year

thoughts on which?

I love taking money I normally would blow in a casino and giving it a shot on these.
[/quote]

The northern miner is a newsletter and website that discusses junior mining news often and can help in your selections
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: yachi on February 12, 2021, 12:57:04 PM
LAZR.  I read a news article on the wiz kid who runs it, and it sounded like a good thing to get behind.  They're focused on building lidar on a chip to use for autonomous vehicles.  Google and Tesla have always differed on the correct technology for autonomous driving.  Google uses big lidar units atop its cars, and Tesla uses cameras.  Lidar seems better in every way except cost, and here is a company solving the cost portion.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: effigy98 on February 15, 2021, 12:05:58 AM
I'm very happy with MSTR. Went in heavy around October and will probably build a Michael Saylor statue next to my pool in my retirement house.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on February 15, 2021, 09:52:15 AM
I'm very happy with MSTR. Went in heavy around October and will probably build a Michael Saylor statue effigy next to my pool in my retirement house.
FTFY, you're welcome.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 15, 2021, 12:16:04 PM
While I stuck to my strategy, that prevented an unbelievable return on MVIS.  During the pandemic I bought in around $0.21/share as a recovery play.  Some people realized the company's patents were a way to discover it's secret #1 customer, and that it partnered with Microsoft on a lucrative defense contract.  It's LIDAR was a key component, and the stock went up +600% before I sold.  Right now, within 1 year, the stock has reached the moon at $18.33/sh, so I only got 7x on an 82x stock (it was also a very small investment).
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EricEng on February 17, 2021, 10:45:11 AM
While I stuck to my strategy, that prevented an unbelievable return on MVIS.  During the pandemic I bought in around $0.21/share as a recovery play.  Some people realized the company's patents were a way to discover it's secret #1 customer, and that it partnered with Microsoft on a lucrative defense contract.  It's LIDAR was a key component, and the stock went up +600% before I sold.  Right now, within 1 year, the stock has reached the moon at $18.33/sh, so I only got 7x on an 82x stock (it was also a very small investment).
Looks like you got out just in a nick of time right before the drop due to new shares being issued:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/17/why-microvision-stock-plunged-today/
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on February 17, 2021, 01:45:29 PM
Close to 6 figures paper gains on CCIV with an average price of 15.  At 58 right now...
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: mizzourah2006 on February 17, 2021, 04:04:52 PM
Close to 6 figures paper gains on CCIV with an average price of 15.  At 58 right now...

Nice! I stupidly wrote covered calls on all mine to protect my downside. I literally wrote the second set at $55 10 minutes before the run from $40 to $53, lol.

Both sets of my CCs are already in the money. Oh well the premiums brought my cost basis down to about ~$9/share and they'll get called away at $50 & $55. So a decent return on a ~$7.5k initial investment.

When all is said and done assuming my shares get called away that $7.5k I invested in mid January will have turned into about $26k.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 18, 2021, 02:59:38 AM
While I stuck to my strategy, that prevented an unbelievable return on MVIS.  During the pandemic I bought in around $0.21/share as a recovery play.  Some people realized the company's patents were a way to discover it's secret #1 customer, and that it partnered with Microsoft on a lucrative defense contract.  It's LIDAR was a key component, and the stock went up +600% before I sold.  Right now, within 1 year, the stock has reached the moon at $18.33/sh, so I only got 7x on an 82x stock (it was also a very small investment).
Looks like you got out just in a nick of time right before the drop due to new shares being issued:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/17/why-microvision-stock-plunged-today/
Since my earlier post, MVIS rose from $18.33 to $19.75, despite new shares being issued.  But I actually got out months ago, when the stock was below $2.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: effigy98 on February 23, 2021, 04:55:05 PM
I'm very happy with MSTR. Went in heavy around October and will probably build a Michael Saylor statue effigy next to my pool in my retirement house.
FTFY, you're welcome.

I love the change!

I am adding SQ to my HODL pie on M1 and buying more MSTR and a little more TSLA! What an opportunity!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on February 24, 2021, 07:04:45 AM
Whew CCIV took quite the dive yesterday, 30%.  I've still doubled my initial position but it kind of hurts, especially because the DA was positive.
SPAC world is kind of fun, looking for the hitters, as long as you can get in near NAV.
Can anyone explain the downside if you're near NAV?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Rdy2Fire on February 24, 2021, 07:07:24 AM
Currently all SPAC related

IPOE
IPOD
IPV
CCII
VGAC
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on March 01, 2021, 12:50:56 PM
Regarding SPAC downside near NAV, the downside is basically that management will overpay for whatever they buy. Very serious risk for celebrity SPACs, but for tried and true investment superstars buying near NAV is, in my opinion, an amazing opportunity.

I'm allocating most of my moonshot dough into BTNB right now.

For those unfamiliar this is Thiel Capital's joint SPAC venture in SE Asia to find a tech-ish company valued around 300 million or so. Their first SPAC, BTWN is looking for a bigger one like Tokopedia, and I own plenty of BTWN as well - but I see a much larger growth opportunity in their smaller cap SPAC. I view it as an extremely rare opportunity to invest in an early stage startup alongside Peter Thiel. You can't turn back time and invest in paypal, facebook, palantir, or lyft - but this is the closest thing that I can see.

And it's under 12 right now, implying less than 20% premium.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 05, 2021, 10:46:55 AM
I've owned Carnival Cruises call options when the vaccines were announced, and thought that was the first and last time I'd ever see +110% in one day.

I hold several micro-cap stocks, one of which is a medical devices company that just receives FDA approval.  Kinda staggering... I wanted to put a stop loss near +250%, but the stock was +350% by the time I reached the order screen.  While I'm typing this, the stock went from +450% to +500%.  Despite being 6x larger than yesterday, the company is so small they're still a micro-cap stock.

My current profit is over +800%, so it's definitely time for stop-loss orders.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on March 05, 2021, 03:28:03 PM
As of today-

ACB-Pot , still consider a spec
CRMD
CYDY
DFLYF
GMDA
MKGI
XERS

Should note these are all newer positions in last week or so and at max 1/2 positions most 1/4. CYDY and XERS are my two largest but I like them all for different reasons. ACB is my smallest position as I think I can add a lot.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: mizzourah2006 on March 05, 2021, 06:35:15 PM
Close to 6 figures paper gains on CCIV with an average price of 15.  At 58 right now...

Nice! I stupidly wrote covered calls on all mine to protect my downside. I literally wrote the second set at $55 10 minutes before the run from $40 to $53, lol.

Both sets of my CCs are already in the money. Oh well the premiums brought my cost basis down to about ~$9/share and they'll get called away at $50 & $55. So a decent return on a ~$7.5k initial investment.

When all is said and done assuming my shares get called away that $7.5k I invested in mid January will have turned into about $26k.

While I wish I could have sold at $60, this is working out for me. I was able to get my cost basis down to $9.90/share via these CCs. The only reason my SPAC portfolio is up on the year is honestly because of my CC premiums, lol. My original cost basis for CCIV was $20/share, but selling CCs cut my cost basis in half. The premiums for CCIV, THCB, IPOE, and GIK are the only reason my SPAC portfolio is still up 10%, lol.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: SparkyPeanut on March 09, 2021, 08:48:57 PM
LKCO!!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Herbert Derp on March 09, 2021, 09:05:57 PM
VACQ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/rocket-lab/)! Literally to the moon (https://www.space.com/rocket-lab-launching-nasa-moon-cubesat-2021.html) and Venus (https://www.space.com/rocket-lab-venus-life-hunting-mission.html)!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2021, 02:36:30 AM
I hold several micro-cap stocks, one of which is a medical devices company that just receives FDA approval.
My most recent sales are for +2000%, thanks to a one week +800% return.  Maybe I should study explosive micro-cap growth, since it seems to be a trend I've stumbled upon.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: SparkyPeanut on March 10, 2021, 05:46:24 AM
Close to 6 figures paper gains on CCIV with an average price of 15.  At 58 right now...

I got lucky with CCIV, bought low, 13/14 range and sold a tiny bit off the top at 62 or so to lower my cost basis - but then sold all the rest at 40 in AH (the day it started plummeting in AH due to the revaluation). I'd like to buy back in at some point. Not sure what to do. It could still be overvalued - the price is all about potential of course.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: SparkyPeanut on March 10, 2021, 05:48:19 AM
Whew CCIV took quite the dive yesterday, 30%.  I've still doubled my initial position but it kind of hurts, especially because the DA was positive.
SPAC world is kind of fun, looking for the hitters, as long as you can get in near NAV.
Can anyone explain the downside if you're near NAV?

Icecream, are you still holding CCIV?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: GreenEggs on March 10, 2021, 06:32:32 AM
I hold several micro-cap stocks, one of which is a medical devices company that just receives FDA approval.
My most recent sales are for +2000%, thanks to a one week +800% return.  Maybe I should study explosive micro-cap growth, since it seems to be a trend I've stumbled upon.




So, what's the difference between a "micro-cap" and a penny stock? 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2021, 06:40:30 AM
I hold several micro-cap stocks, one of which is a medical devices company that just receives FDA approval.
My most recent sales are for +2000%, thanks to a one week +800% return.  Maybe I should study explosive micro-cap growth, since it seems to be a trend I've stumbled upon.
So, what's the difference between a "micro-cap" and a penny stock?
There's probably overlap, but a penny stock has a price/share below $1.00, at which point some exchanges may threaten to de-list the stock if it stays in that range.  The response tends to be a reverse stock split, where 10 shares become 1 share, pushing a $0.60 stock up to $6/share (but with 1/10th the shares).

The definition of micro-cap stock I use is below $250 million market cap.  For example, right now Microvision (MVIS) is a $2 billion company, which is the result of multiplying it's number of shares times x price/share.  (153M shares x $14.08/sh = $2.15 billion)  Back when I bought that stock at $0.22/share, assuming they had the same number of shares: 153M x $0.22 =  $34 million company, well within micro-cap range.  (I sold last year)
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: GreenEggs on March 10, 2021, 06:57:25 AM
I hold several micro-cap stocks, one of which is a medical devices company that just receives FDA approval.
My most recent sales are for +2000%, thanks to a one week +800% return.  Maybe I should study explosive micro-cap growth, since it seems to be a trend I've stumbled upon.
So, what's the difference between a "micro-cap" and a penny stock?
There's probably overlap, but a penny stock has a price/share below $1.00, at which point some exchanges may threaten to de-list the stock if it stays in that range.  The response tends to be a reverse stock split, where 10 shares become 1 share, pushing a $0.60 stock up to $6/share (but with 1/10th the shares).

The definition of micro-cap stock I use is below $250 million market cap.  For example, right now Microvision (MVIS) is a $2 billion company, which is the result of multiplying it's number of shares times x price/share.  (153M shares x $14.08/sh = $2.15 billion)  Back when I bought that stock at $0.22/share, assuming they had the same number of shares: 153M x $0.22 =  $34 million company, well within micro-cap range.  (I sold last year)


Thanks for the clarification.  Micro-caps sound interesting.  How are you discovering and researching them? 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 10, 2021, 10:57:47 AM
The two micro-caps with insane returns were just lucky stumbling.  Last year many stocks were hit hard in March, and I looked to buy those stocks and await their recovery.  So I searched for recovery stocks with good enough financials to stay in business.  It is a bit odd to pick 2 of them, when I have less than a dozen micro-caps.

I forget which stock now, but one of my picks was about 7% owned by "Renaissance Technologies", a closed hedge fund with really stunning annual returns for a long time.  I noticed it when the annual report came out.  I suppose you could look at annual reports, to see what Renaissance bought, and try to deduce the pattern?

One word of warning: my small oil company investments met with 2 out of 3 declaring bankruptcy.  The 3rd recovered so well it paid for the others, but I don't expect that to repeat in future investments.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: mntnmn117 on March 10, 2021, 11:48:57 AM
As of today-

ACB-Pot , still consider a spec
CRMD
CYDY
DFLYF
GMDA
MKGI
XERS

Should note these are all newer positions in last week or so and at max 1/2 positions most 1/4. CYDY and XERS are my two largest but I like them all for different reasons. ACB is my smallest position as I think I can add a lot.

I googled these today and 3 of the 7 CYCY, XERS, CRMD - first result is a law firm investigating securities fraud.  Is that why you picked them?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on March 15, 2021, 02:27:33 PM
As of today-

ACB-Pot , still consider a spec
CRMD
CYDY
DFLYF
GMDA
MKGI
XERS

Should note these are all newer positions in last week or so and at max 1/2 positions most 1/4. CYDY and XERS are my two largest but I like them all for different reasons. ACB is my smallest position as I think I can add a lot.

I googled these today and 3 of the 7 CYCY, XERS, CRMD - first result is a law firm investigating securities fraud.  Is that why you picked them?


I don't own CYCY but CYCD, and its a Bio-Tech as is XERS , CRMD. I am out of all on the list except DLYF, XERS but added UVXY , NOK, TYME, and my first SPAC CPNG. These are separate of my core holdings.

I did not buy any stocks because of class action lawsuits but its not uncommon for them to be in the position they are because of one, however I do own BAYRY and am collecting the Dividend until the Lawsuit on that one gets resolved because it imo will be a flyer again and the stock is very cheap for a great company.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Icecreamarsenal on March 15, 2021, 02:58:40 PM
Whew CCIV took quite the dive yesterday, 30%.  I've still doubled my initial position but it kind of hurts, especially because the DA was positive.
SPAC world is kind of fun, looking for the hitters, as long as you can get in near NAV.
Can anyone explain the downside if you're near NAV?

Icecream, are you still holding CCIV?

Yes, still holding. Selling weekly covered calls at ~25 delta.
Iím fine if the options end in the money and the shares get called away honestly, this is so not my normal way of investing. Sitting and looking at the screen is draining.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on March 15, 2021, 05:42:24 PM
I took a nibble on Quantum Scape (QS) today.  The partnership with Volks Wagon Auto Group gives me confidence they will have sufficient funding to bring their product to market.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on March 15, 2021, 05:54:46 PM
I just remembered I've got about 250,000 Iraqi Dinar. It's still worth about the $200 I paid for it 15 some years ago on my first deployment.  I know there were some guys in my unit who "invested" many times more than I did expecting it to hit a similar exchange ratio as the Kuwaiti Dinar (worth $3.31 each).
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on March 15, 2021, 06:56:30 PM
I just remembered I've got about 250,000 Iraqi Dinar. It's still worth about the $200 I paid for it 15 some years ago on my first deployment.  I know there were some guys in my unit who "invested" many times more than I did expecting it to hit a similar exchange ratio as the Kuwaiti Dinar (worth $3.31 each).
Ebay?   I gotten trillions of Zimbabwe dollars that way.  Makes great Halloween treats.  Some notes may or may not be better (if in in uncirculated condition)than others.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on March 17, 2021, 02:13:39 PM
As of today-

ACB-Pot , still consider a spec
CRMD
CYDY
DFLYF
GMDA
MKGI
XERS

Should note these are all newer positions in last week or so and at max 1/2 positions most 1/4. CYDY and XERS are my two largest but I like them all for different reasons. ACB is my smallest position as I think I can add a lot.

I googled these today and 3 of the 7 CYCY, XERS, CRMD - first result is a law firm investigating securities fraud.  Is that why you picked them?


I don't own CYCY but CYCD, and its a Bio-Tech as is XERS , CRMD. I am out of all on the list except DLYF, XERS but added UVXY , NOK, TYME, and my first SPAC CPNG. These are separate of my core holdings.

I did not buy any stocks because of class action lawsuits but its not uncommon for them to be in the position they are because of one, however I do own BAYRY and am collecting the Dividend until the Lawsuit on that one gets resolved because it imo will be a flyer again and the stock is very cheap for a great company.



MKGI jumped 20% today but think it will see at least 5 but am totally out of name
Also out of UVXY

Added to CPNG, BAYRY and Bought RAD at 26$ today.




Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: TheAnonOne on March 18, 2021, 11:25:39 AM
Way back in 2017 into 2018 I dumped some cash into crypto and it kept crashing.

Around 1 year ago, it was worth maybe $7k, last week it was over $330,000.

Basically holding until it cracks a solid million or goes to 0. This money is not counted in any of my net-worth calcs.

If anyone's interested, Chainlink $Link, and Lukso $lyxe

GLHF
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on April 06, 2021, 11:00:13 AM
ABNB, apparently.

Today I added some MOON to my portfolio.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: WoodsRun on April 08, 2021, 10:50:13 AM
I have 15 shares of GME.
All money I'm prepared to lose.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PJC74 on April 09, 2021, 03:13:11 PM
Rolls Royce RYCEY  5k shares at $1.41
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on April 10, 2021, 05:33:10 AM
Been in and out of alot of names of late with the sector rotations but other than my "Longs" currently in

ACB
GTBIF
MANU- Setup looks good for a re-opening play and could see it popping to 22-23 quickly
MRKR
NOK- Every week there penning another deal
OPTN
POAHY- I think Volkswagen is going to be the leader in EV's if not a major major player so think good way to play it as well as QS
PRQR
SURF
XERS
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on April 15, 2021, 04:24:35 AM
RECAF trading should be interesting today. They announced overnight that their first test well found a working petroleum system.

 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html
 (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html)
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on April 15, 2021, 08:32:30 AM
Was just going to thank whoever recommended that. I bought 200 shares for fun so being up 60% on that is nice.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: GreenEggs on April 15, 2021, 08:48:42 AM
Wish I'd bought BGFV.  I watched HIBB take off and should have realized BGFV would likely follow them up. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on April 15, 2021, 09:58:55 AM
RECAF trading should be interesting today. They announced overnight that their first test well found a working petroleum system.

 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html
 (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html)

Just came to post the same thing.  Thanks for shedding light on this months ago!  I got in February because of that anecdote about the geologist you know dumping in $10K.  I'm excited for this stock, as more certainty comes into play I see it as easily worth $100/sh based on the thickness they've reported.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on April 15, 2021, 10:03:20 AM
ABNB, apparently.

Today I added some MOON to my portfolio.

For a literal moonshot I added some VACQ today.

That's my moonshot stack, ~1% of my portfolio.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on April 17, 2021, 06:05:40 AM
RECAF trading should be interesting today. They announced overnight that their first test well found a working petroleum system.

 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html
 (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html)

Just came to post the same thing.  Thanks for shedding light on this months ago!  I got in February because of that anecdote about the geologist you know dumping in $10K.  I'm excited for this stock, as more certainty comes into play I see it as easily worth $100/sh based on the thickness they've reported.

My geologist friend ended up investing quite a bit more, as did I. My share count is just over 10,000 so a $100 SP would work for me!  My friend has about 4x my stake so he needs only $25 to get his second comma.

The past 2 days were fun but Iím a bit disappointed with the stock price action. Weíre still not at $1 billion MC, which EEENF crossed when they kinda sorta found 500 million barrels on Alaskaís North Slope.  Thatís a puddle compared to the ocean RECAF could be sitting on.

I am encouraged though by the follow-thru Friday (closing over $6 seems very positive after the late afternoon sell off) so Iím looking for more realistic valuations in the coming days and weeks. I see no reason weíre not worth $10-15 right now. But what do I know, I make beer for a living?

So letís enjoy it and look forward to bigger days.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Rdy2Fire on April 17, 2021, 08:54:13 AM
I won't go into the reasoning, I'd suggest checking them out especially VGAC

VGAC
IPOE
NAKD
PLTR
YJ
SOLO
AEVA

Also check out JMIA which I got in at 8 made it to 70 and is back around 30 but it will rise again
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on April 17, 2021, 07:05:18 PM
RECAF trading should be interesting today. They announced overnight that their first test well found a working petroleum system.

 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html
 (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-s-first-of-three-wells-confirms-a-working-petroleum-system-in-the-kavango-basin-namibia-865139500.html)

Just came to post the same thing.  Thanks for shedding light on this months ago!  I got in February because of that anecdote about the geologist you know dumping in $10K.  I'm excited for this stock, as more certainty comes into play I see it as easily worth $100/sh based on the thickness they've reported.

My geologist friend ended up investing quite a bit more, as did I. My share count is just over 10,000 so a $100 SP would work for me!  My friend has about 4x my stake so he needs only $25 to get his second comma.

The past 2 days were fun but Iím a bit disappointed with the stock price action. Weíre still not at $1 billion MC, which EEENF crossed when they kinda sorta found 500 million barrels on Alaskaís North Slope.  Thatís a puddle compared to the ocean RECAF could be sitting on.

I am encouraged though by the follow-thru Friday (closing over $6 seems very positive after the late afternoon sell off) so Iím looking for more realistic valuations in the coming days and weeks. I see no reason weíre not worth $10-15 right now. But what do I know, I make beer for a living?

So letís enjoy it and look forward to bigger days.

Yeah, I am small potatoes with 2,000 shares @ 3.03 but I'm happy with it so far!  I too thought it would go a little higher, i predicted to a friend that it would open at $6 and be to $9 by the weekend... so I was at least in the range.  I hope to see sub $5 again during the long lull between the 2nd drill results and maybe the 2D seismic results so I can scoop up a bit more on sale.  I really like this stock!   If it can get on the NASDAQ look out!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: time is money on April 18, 2021, 06:00:49 AM
Haywood estimated valuation for RECAF based on 1 billion barrels of commercialized oil is 39$. 10 billion barrels would mean price in several hundreds $. Itís not forbidden to day dream but what if they really are sitting on 100+ billion barrels? That is share price in thousands. Thereís still chance this can go to 0. So I am just sticking with my initial 4000 shares investment as commercializing even 10% of their estimated barrels of oil would be a life changing investment for me.

https://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/RECOApr152021.pdf?inf_contact_key=f5ac6be8b46ff88b3d6a14bac93ae655680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: BigLumox on April 28, 2021, 08:09:41 AM
RECAF will be a fun one to watch. Im a little late to the party, but I scooped up a small stake to go along for the ride.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on April 30, 2021, 04:19:12 AM
NOK and XERS are getting Jiggy
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 30, 2021, 06:53:05 AM
Iíve lost 16% on 400 shares of Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY).
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on April 30, 2021, 07:54:58 AM
Succumbed to peer pressure
Entered limit order 100 RECAF  at 6.50 (in both Roth and taxable accounts).
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on May 03, 2021, 06:22:30 AM
RECAF is the top story on CNN right now:  cnn.com (http://cnn.com)

Yes it's a typical negative spin (environmental risk, big bad oil company running roughshod over locals) but it's also millions of people hearing about it for the first time.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on May 03, 2021, 10:02:25 AM
Not sure if I posted this or not...

TELL   Tellurian, an LNG company.  I'm convinced we will be using natural gas more and more and LNG is the best way to transport it.  If we are going to really electrify everything, we are going to need a lot of electricity.  Natural gas is almost everywhere and is the cleanest fossil fuel we have.  Once we realize the storage issues related to using renewables on a large scale (already happening) there is going to be a greater acceptance of either natural gas and/or nuclear.  For nuclear, I hold some uranium miners as well.  But I don't really consider them "moonshot" status.  TELL isn't all that moonshot-y either.  They are profitable as the currently stand but their ambitions are definitely moonshot-eque and the have the management to pull it off. 

https://www.retailbull.co.uk/blog/tellurian-a-potential-100-bagger-stock
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Telecaster on May 07, 2021, 01:43:28 PM
Back in May I bought some PK, which is a REIT that owns Hilton-branded hotels and resorts.  Mostly higher end properties.  It was beat down about 2/3 off its normal trading range.  I assumed that travel will return eventually and the losses are temporary.  It was a good deal then, I'm not sure it is as good of a deal now.

I decided to cash out today.   I had a 161.63% gain, and the stock is starting to approach its old trading range, so I don't think it has a ton of upside left.  Proceeds are going back into the index. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on June 03, 2021, 09:08:07 AM
Another nice little bump for RECAF today.  The real jump at this point will probably be after seismic results... the news yesterday was basically just confirming again what investors already knew.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Rockies on June 03, 2021, 12:23:10 PM
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

How are these doing? You still excited about all of them?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on June 03, 2021, 08:57:46 PM
Not sure if I posted this or not...

TELL   Tellurian, an LNG company.  I'm convinced we will be using natural gas more and more and LNG is the best way to transport it.  If we are going to really electrify everything, we are going to need a lot of electricity.  Natural gas is almost everywhere and is the cleanest fossil fuel we have.  Once we realize the storage issues related to using renewables on a large scale (already happening) there is going to be a greater acceptance of either natural gas and/or nuclear.  For nuclear, I hold some uranium miners as well.  But I don't really consider them "moonshot" status.  TELL isn't all that moonshot-y either.  They are profitable as the currently stand but their ambitions are definitely moonshot-eque and the have the management to pull it off. 

https://www.retailbull.co.uk/blog/tellurian-a-potential-100-bagger-stock

TELL has recently announced two long term supply deals with major commodity traders, Gunvor and Vitol.  The stock price was about $2 a month ago, closed at $5.16 today.  I would not want to be short this one.  All aboard!  This train is picking up speed! 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on June 04, 2021, 02:49:16 AM
INVU a coin I like there project
MKGI is getting close to being relisted and will then run
DFLYF- Canadian Drone company, small drones has good upside
ASTS- This one was over 20 I bought around 7.72 yesterday and started to run.

Long shots but I like these

GNOG
CLVS

to others I own and CLVS i have a full position and GNOG i add to on pull backs

XERS and NOK two I have owned are breaking out. I sold POAHY at 12$ and hope i get a chance to buy back.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Duke03 on June 04, 2021, 11:15:49 PM
AMC was a nice hit for me!!!

I bought in at $9 on Feb. 1st and sold for $68.  My kids where really excited when I told them that some nice hedge fund manger decided to send them to Disney for Christmas this year!!!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on June 09, 2021, 01:07:56 PM
Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

How are these doing? You still excited about all of them?

Some better than others.

Oroco has performed the best, it is more than a double for me now. Up about $1,200.

CVM has had some ups and downs, traded in and out so it's hard to tell, but I'm up about $8,500 overall. Results aren't in yet, have about 10 grand I'm hoping to see turn into about 50.

BTWN like most SPACs has been lackluster but is starting to come back. I have about 10 grand in BTWN and 25 in BTNB, both have found acquisition/merger targets that I am bullish on so I believe once the financials and quarterly earnings roll in I will be doing really well on these picks. Down about 1 grand on them overall.

MIND has been up and down. I'm up about $1,800 as I've trimmed the rallies and bought the dips. Holding about 5 grand currently.

IPOB, I think this is now OPEN? I'm up just over $2,000 as I have, again trimmed rallies and bought dips. I thought I'd be down big on this but apparently not.

RECAF and CONXF have been winners for me as well.


I mostly trade using a portion of my 401k as well as my HSA, which allows me to avoid worrying about short term capital gains tax, and over 1 yr I have a 47% return and over 2 yrs I'm at 100%. I started just over 2 yrs ago.





Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on June 09, 2021, 02:16:05 PM

RECAF and CONXF have been winners for me as well.


Every bit of news so far from RECAF has been positive.  What you can read "between the lines" is even more encouraging.  I continue to accumulate shares at these current prices.   
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: BigLumox on June 17, 2021, 07:58:14 AM
RECAF pushing $10.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on June 17, 2021, 08:16:55 AM
RECAF pushing $10.

Indeed.  The movement is a little strange though, what is this most recent 30% increase from?  The news about NAMCOR (seems somewhat insignificant?), or is there some even better news coming that has been leaked and the market is beginning to react?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: J Boogie on June 17, 2021, 12:56:31 PM
RECAF pushing $10.

Indeed.  The movement is a little strange though, what is this most recent 30% increase from?  The news about NAMCOR (seems somewhat insignificant?), or is there some even better news coming that has been leaked and the market is beginning to react?

Momentum is my guess. Once people see that other investors aren't cashing out, they figure other investors are going long. High risk, high reward - and the lack of investors running for the exits fills makes for a bullish outlook.

I don't follow this same thesis for companies with limited upside, but for something like RECAF where they have rights to the entire Kavango basin, which they say could be good for 30 billion barrels of crude. 1 barrel is what, $70 right now? Seems like there is far more reason to buy than to sell given a 1.5b valuation. And there hasn't been any bad news on the discovery front, maybe a little pushback from NatGeo. But given how much positive economic impact this would have on African nations that could certainly use a GDP boost, I don't see any opposition being able to hold back the flood of demand here.

I think I just talked myself into more shares.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on June 17, 2021, 04:43:34 PM
This week certainly has been fun. The only obvious criticism of this jump is it has been the very low volume. Iím looking for days with 10 or 60 million shares traded.

My other comment is that there may not be a ďreasonĒ for the jump other than it getting to where it should be. After the positive results from the first two wells we *should* be at US$12-15. IMO.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 09, 2021, 11:47:11 AM
I keep coming back for ideas... there has been some pretty nice hits mentioned throughout this thread
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 09, 2021, 11:47:44 AM
Gamestop, bought around $5. Hoping it reaches 20s. It was close at 16 until past earnings when dropped. Christmas earnings should help.

This is my favorite...
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: WoodsRun on November 09, 2021, 11:54:13 AM
Buying Loopring Coin (LRC). Not sure if that counts since it is in the crypto world.
The technology allows for less gas fees but still with Ethereum security.
I think this will be valuable in medium to long term future.

It's less than $3 per coin now (Nov 9 2021). I'd be ecstatic if this reaches double digits.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: effigy98 on November 09, 2021, 07:14:32 PM
Been buying SI... Bank that actually believes in non 70s technology. Stock is great!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: markbike528CBX on November 10, 2021, 12:22:49 AM
RECAF pushing $10.
While I'm not pointing finger(s) here, I did buy RECAF a 6.5 based on this thread.
Current 5.48.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on November 10, 2021, 04:11:57 AM
RECAF pushing $10.
While I'm not pointing finger(s) here, I did buy RECAF a 6.5 based on this thread.
Current 5.48.

You will do well.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on November 10, 2021, 11:32:14 AM
Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on November 10, 2021, 12:04:07 PM
Iíve lost 16% on 400 shares of Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY).

Now up 11%. Yay inflation!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 10, 2021, 12:04:55 PM
I am still really high on RECAF despite what feels like a letdown in stock price.  The truth is the company is still in speculation phase until it proves it has reserves, all the big news about having a working petroleum system (April) and viable geology for target traps (November) just help with the speculating.  2022 will be the year where reserves are proven and Joint Venture talk takes off... hopefully that happens because I have more than I'd like to admit in this company.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on November 10, 2021, 03:40:26 PM
I am still really high on RECAF despite what feels like a letdown in stock price.  The truth is the company is still in speculation phase until it proves it has reserves, all the big news about having a working petroleum system (April) and viable geology for target traps (November) just help with the speculating.  2022 will be the year where reserves are proven and Joint Venture talk takes off... hopefully that happens because I have more than I'd like to admit in this company.

Yup, me too.

The exploration progress has been going exceedingly well. The stock price will follow.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on November 10, 2021, 08:07:13 PM
KLXE
It's a oil support company.  The stock has bottomed, it has a low float, and a current market cap around 50m but projected to have 1b in revenue (seriously).  They've had some mergers in the past few years and appear well positioned for an upcoming boom in service needs.  Some believe they are heavily shorted and are ripe for a short squeeze too.  On paper, it looks like a shitty company, but so were/are the companies I've done the best on in the OG space since 2020. (CPE, CDEV, PVAC, OXY, etc.)  The worse the balance sheet, the more gain there is to have in share price.  Most of the E&P companies have already seen their share prices rise significantly, they track the price per barrel somewhat.  The services sector lags because their work comes later in the cycle.  The early quarterlies in the space are showing signs of improvement.  Crappy companies like BORR are heading up because new contracts are coming in.  KLXE fits in this space.  The biggies in this space are HAL, SLB and their performance is somewhat indicative of the services market.  This is not a long term hold.  I'll take my 3-10x and call it good.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: LetsRetireYoung on November 10, 2021, 11:00:15 PM
So this is the MMM version of wallstreetbets, eh? :)))

I'm an avid stock investor - my hand-picked value stock portfolio back in May 2020 went up almost 200% within a year, which helped bankroll my lean-FIRE. Most of the stocks I invest in are not moonshots at all. Pretty boring, actually - just swing-trade and arbitrage opportunities.

The only moonshot I have in my portfolio is this: ORGN. They're a carbon-negative materials company. Their technology was audited and it's been established that they can, in fact, manufacture stuff at scale with negative carbon emissions. The construction on their first manufacturing plant is 6 months ahead of schedule. More importantly, the insiders are buying their own company's stock, which is a pretty damn good sign.

Once they build more manufacturing plants, get large contracts, generate even more good press, etc, their cash flow will be beyond impressive. ("This soda can was made with negative carbon emissions! Buy slurpo-cola, save the planet!" etc etc) I hold a couple thousand shares and some loooong leap calls for 2024 in my Roth IRA. This could be very interesting. ;)

If you decide to follow in my footsteps and make money on this trade, donate some of your profit to the King County Search & Rescue over here (https://www.kcesar.org/donate.html). Tell them that rescuer 602 sent you. :)
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Herbert Derp on November 16, 2021, 04:07:15 AM
Although some of these seem like good investments, do any of you guys feel bad or get nervous about investing in oil and gas companies? Climate change ethics aside, the regulatory environment, political environment, and support from banks and institutional investors does not favor oil and gas companies over the next decade. Furthermore, with the transition to cleaner forms of energy, peak oil demand may be coming soon.

30 billion barrels of oil is nice, but what use is it if nobody is willing to invest the money needed to pump it out of the ground because banks and institutional investors are wary of oil and gas loans and investments, and nobody is interested in buying it because demand for oil has peaked? Plus, you have to deal with political pressure from regulators, climate change activists, and the woke brigade who will complain about “colonizers” exploiting Africa for its natural resources. Is RECAF intended to be a long-term investment or do you plan on dropping it once the reserves are proved out?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: StachelessNicholas on November 16, 2021, 07:42:15 AM
Lucid
SoFI
GME
GGPI-Recent addition a few weeks ago that started paying last week

I've held each of these for better part of a year now and they keep delivering... Pull profits on any big run and tuck them safely into my beloved indexes.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 16, 2021, 11:31:31 AM
Although some of these seem like good investments, do any of you guys feel bad or get nervous about investing in oil and gas companies? Climate change ethics aside, the regulatory environment, political environment, and support from banks and institutional investors does not favor oil and gas companies over the next decade. Furthermore, with the transition to cleaner forms of energy, peak oil demand may be coming soon.

Yes, I would buy VT-ex fossil fuels if I could, especially oil and coal. Not because of any moral/ethical consideration, just future gains.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EliteZags on November 16, 2021, 07:37:07 PM
Just posted a thread on this then saw this one where it's prob more appropriate

(https://i.postimg.cc/QMbKWMrR/20211116-161107-HDR.jpg)

Was draining my accts each wk during those crashes this spring, only need pltr to start running, had intended on holding these long though
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: SwordGuy on November 16, 2021, 09:20:53 PM
I invested $12K into starting a trucking company.   I'm putting in 50% of the capital and almost none of the work.   We're at 50% ownership now, over time, that will drop to 5% as my business buddy will be putting in all the sweat equity.

We'll find out if it grows into real money-maker or just an ok business.   

It's not much to lose if that happens, the odds are it will do passably well or better.   I don't need it to provide income or get repaid any time soon, and can provide some additional capital if it makes sense to do so.

We're planning on using it as an income stream for charitable purposes.  Our partner wants the truckers working for him to be better treated and better paid than truckers usually are.  (So do we.)   We're both FI so we can afford to do things that are right by other folks.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 20, 2021, 08:26:22 PM
Although some of these seem like good investments, do any of you guys feel bad or get nervous about investing in oil and gas companies? Climate change ethics aside, the regulatory environment, political environment, and support from banks and institutional investors does not favor oil and gas companies over the next decade. Furthermore, with the transition to cleaner forms of energy, peak oil demand may be coming soon.

Yes, I would buy VT-ex fossil fuels if I could, especially oil and coal. Not because of any moral/ethical consideration, just future gains.

I saw this today: WSJ: Trillions in Assets May Be Left Stranded as Companies Address Climate Change (https://www.wsj.com/articles/trillions-in-assets-may-be-left-stranded-as-companies-address-climate-change-11637416980). Their take is that ignoring climate change ultimately leads to more losses in things like buildings that are literally underwater.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on November 25, 2021, 01:40:29 PM
Regarding "ethics"...  I started picking individual stocks in 2020 and don't do it that much.  I look for incredibly under-valued sectors.  Oil and gas fit that criteria in 2020 and some sub-sectors still do today.  If I wasn't heating my home with natural gas and putting gasoline into both my cars, I might feel like this is a ethically questionable position.  But we're a long way away from powering the world with anything else, so no, I don't feel bad about it.  I'd rather LNG start to take a larger role in our energy supply.  It's much cleaner than crude and coal and NG is everywhere. We don't need to re-invent that wheel, it's already done.  Electric + batteries just isn't a good solution.  Mining cobalt in the Congo + waste issues plus so much more makes battery tech a slightly less shitty solution than what we currently have.  I don't buy it.   
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: effigy98 on November 26, 2021, 10:50:11 AM
Volcano bonds. 6%+ yield, dividend for half the Bitcoin holdings appreciation... Over 5 years. Conservative fixed income moonshot?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Herbert Derp on November 26, 2021, 10:37:42 PM
Electric + batteries just isn't a good solution.  Mining cobalt in the Congo + waste issues plus so much more makes battery tech a slightly less shitty solution than what we currently have.  I don't buy it.   

Newer batteries donít use cobalt, and also they can be recycled. This solves the cobalt and waste issues you brought up.

Read all about it:

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/01/why-lithium-iron-phosphate-batteries-may-be-the-key-to-the-ev-revolution/

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/28/what-teslas-bet-on-iron-based-batteries-means-for-manufacturers/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-14/a-tesla-co-founder-aims-to-build-an-entire-u-s-battery-industry

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/28/redwood-materials-raises-700m-to-expand-its-battery-recycling-operation/amp/

https://www.fastcompany.com/90693082/why-this-former-tesla-engineer-now-works-on-battery-recycling
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on December 02, 2021, 08:52:05 AM
Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: effigy98 on December 02, 2021, 10:17:14 AM
Play the other side SARK.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Herbert Derp on December 02, 2021, 10:34:14 AM
Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well

Haha! At least Rocket Lab is up about 50% from its initial SPAC price!
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ChpBstrd on December 02, 2021, 10:48:11 AM
I just sold a few Bear Call Spreads on the VIX at the 29 and 30 strikes for $0.23 per unit. In layman's terms, that means if the VIX is less than 29 on Jan 5, I earn 23% in about a month. If it's over 30, I lose 100% of the amount at stake (which is $1 per unit). I sold 8 contracts so there's $800 at stake, and $184 profit to be made.

My view from the street level says Wall Street is a lot more concerned about COVID-19 than Main Street, and there is little political appetite for restrictions in the U.S. Will hundreds of thousands die in the next 3 months - absolutely yes - but profits will be fine.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on December 02, 2021, 10:49:55 AM
what do you folks think about AI - C3.ai, inc.?
its right around its 52 week low
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on December 06, 2021, 11:21:30 PM
KLXE up 18% today, but after a brutal sell-off the past two weeks.  Bottom is/was IN. 
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: EliteZags on December 07, 2021, 02:04:13 PM
some other "cult stocks" I've been adding on these dips

TTCF
CRSR
PLTR


plus bought the massive DOCU plummet last wk
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on January 11, 2022, 09:27:43 PM
KLXE
It's a oil support company.  The stock has bottomed, it has a low float, and a current market cap around 50m but projected to have 1b in revenue (seriously).  They've had some mergers in the past few years and appear well positioned for an upcoming boom in service needs.  Some believe they are heavily shorted and are ripe for a short squeeze too.  On paper, it looks like a shitty company, but so were/are the companies I've done the best on in the OG space since 2020. (CPE, CDEV, PVAC, OXY, etc.)  The worse the balance sheet, the more gain there is to have in share price.  Most of the E&P companies have already seen their share prices rise significantly, they track the price per barrel somewhat.  The services sector lags because their work comes later in the cycle.  The early quarterlies in the space are showing signs of improvement.  Crappy companies like BORR are heading up because new contracts are coming in.  KLXE fits in this space.  The biggies in this space are HAL, SLB and their performance is somewhat indicative of the services market.  This is not a long term hold.  I'll take my 3-10x and call it good.

Thanks for this post. The market cap makes absolutely no sense given the size of the business. Q3 financials showed they are close to positive EBIDTA and the balance sheet isnít really all that bad. Yet the market drove the valuation down to damn near zero.

Predictions are that US oil/gas production will increase throughout 2022 and 2023. KLX is well-positioned.

I bought a few shares from $4.44 down to $3.22. Today theyíre now all green.

Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: ice_beard on January 12, 2022, 06:14:16 PM
KLXE
It's a oil support company.  The stock has bottomed, it has a low float, and a current market cap around 50m but projected to have 1b in revenue (seriously).  They've had some mergers in the past few years and appear well positioned for an upcoming boom in service needs.  Some believe they are heavily shorted and are ripe for a short squeeze too.  On paper, it looks like a shitty company, but so were/are the companies I've done the best on in the OG space since 2020. (CPE, CDEV, PVAC, OXY, etc.)  The worse the balance sheet, the more gain there is to have in share price.  Most of the E&P companies have already seen their share prices rise significantly, they track the price per barrel somewhat.  The services sector lags because their work comes later in the cycle.  The early quarterlies in the space are showing signs of improvement.  Crappy companies like BORR are heading up because new contracts are coming in.  KLXE fits in this space.  The biggies in this space are HAL, SLB and their performance is somewhat indicative of the services market.  This is not a long term hold.  I'll take my 3-10x and call it good.

Thanks for this post. The market cap makes absolutely no sense given the size of the business. Q3 financials showed they are close to positive EBIDTA and the balance sheet isnít really all that bad. Yet the market drove the valuation down to damn near zero.

Predictions are that US oil/gas production will increase throughout 2022 and 2023. KLX is well-positioned.

I bought a few shares from $4.44 down to $3.22. Today theyíre now all green.

Congrats on your low average.  This is going to be a fun ride.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: svosavvy on January 14, 2022, 09:04:56 AM
<5% investable NW:

COIN-long

BYND-recent long

ATAI-recent long

CGC-long

RSX leap puts jan 2024 $14 strike-buy open

UNG- re-opened long

TKC July 2022 $2.50 puts-buy open
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joemcd333 on January 19, 2022, 10:20:43 AM
RECAF pushing $10.
While I'm not pointing finger(s) here, I did buy RECAF a 6.5 based on this thread.
Current 5.48.

You will do well.

If you don't want to hold for 2 years, don't buy this stock. IMO, its a great 2 year hold. I'm up to almost 10k shares and holding until 2024 (or it busts lol) This year I think there will be a resource report and JV agreement and those should push the price up significantly, although I think some people have unrealistic expectations. My own estimations predict $15 per share per 1Billion barrels recoverable, assuming some very conservative oil pricing. and that is a long term evaluation, not a prediction of what the price will be immediately after announcement of resource report. Should be fun!
Brent Oil $/Barrel as of 5/4/2021   $50.00
Outstanding Shares as of 7/28/2021   215,000,000
Dilution percentage   0.10
Recoverable amount (bn barrels) NAMIBIA   2.90
Recoverable Amount (bn barrels) BOTSWANA   0.10
Project lifespan in years   25
NAMIBIA Production value before depreciation   145,000,000,000.00
Production Value less 10% stake Namibia   130,500,000,000.00
Namibia production value less 5% royalty   123,975,000,000.00
BOTSWANA Production value before depreciation   5,000,000,000.00
Botswana production less 10% max royalty   4,500,000,000.00
Cost per barrel overheads   25.00
Cost of production   75,000,000,000.00
Cost of production to be met by Namibia   7,250,000,000.00
Net Asset value before depreciation   60,725,000,000.00
Depreciation value over lifecycle   0.06
Actual Depreciated asset value   14,148,841,837.35
Less relevant corporate taxes   4,890,782,995.11
Net asset value after taxes (market cap)   9,258,058,842.24
Target Share Value    $43.06
Current Share Value    $5.80
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on January 19, 2022, 10:54:01 AM
Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well

Haha! At least Rocket Lab is up about 50% from its initial SPAC price!

Neither of these have aged well Ark k is now in the high $70s and rocket lab is sub $10 flirting with all time lows
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: Rdy2Fire on January 19, 2022, 12:19:08 PM
Most recent moonshots all of which have very good potential to succeed.

PLTR
ME
RBLX

Total crap shoots; well aren't they all really??

SOLO (maybe someone will purchase or merge with)
CLNE
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on February 16, 2022, 09:48:14 AM
How far does the brain trust think KLXE will run?
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on May 02, 2022, 09:37:53 AM
Are you guys holding RECAF still? I am thinking about dumping it
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: vand on May 02, 2022, 09:53:53 AM
This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: joe189man on May 02, 2022, 10:10:43 AM
This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.

@vand i think you are right, most of my picks from this thread have done quite poorly, painful learning experience
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on May 02, 2022, 10:27:23 AM
Are you guys holding RECAF still? I am thinking about dumping it

I got in early enough that I still have some really nice gains.  With that being said, I am still sticking with it... this is not the time to jump out.  All the indications seem to point to there being oil and some wells targeted at oil trapping features being drilled this month.  If you believe in the initial assumption that there is oil in the Kavango region, nothing has changed to disprove that... but a LOT of things seem to be suggesting there is.
Title: Re: What are your moonshot investments?
Post by: v8rx7guy on May 02, 2022, 10:33:29 AM
This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.

@vand i think you are right, most of my picks from this thread have done quite poorly, painful learning experience

To be fair with RECAF, it is still up 70% since it was first mentioned and has been as high as 3X-ing for a short while.  Also, to be fair, "moonshot" investments are high-risk high-reward typically, so it's not shocking that most have been bad calls.