What are your moonshot investments?

[effigy98]

Volcano bonds. 6%+ yield, dividend for half the Bitcoin holdings appreciation... Over 5 years. Conservative fixed income moonshot?

[Herbert Derp]

Electric + batteries just isn't a good solution.  Mining cobalt in the Congo + waste issues plus so much more makes battery tech a slightly less shitty solution than what we currently have.  I don't buy it.   

Newer batteries don’t use cobalt, and also they can be recycled. This solves the cobalt and waste issues you brought up.

Read all about it:

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/01/why-lithium-iron-phosphate-batteries-may-be-the-key-to-the-ev-revolution/

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/28/what-teslas-bet-on-iron-based-batteries-means-for-manufacturers/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-14/a-tesla-co-founder-aims-to-build-an-entire-u-s-battery-industry

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/28/redwood-materials-raises-700m-to-expand-its-battery-recycling-operation/amp/

https://www.fastcompany.com/90693082/why-this-former-tesla-engineer-now-works-on-battery-recycling

[joe189man]

Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well

[effigy98]

Play the other side SARK.

[Herbert Derp]

Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well

Haha! At least Rocket Lab is up about 50% from its initial SPAC price!

[ChpBstrd]

I just sold a few Bear Call Spreads on the VIX at the 29 and 30 strikes for $0.23 per unit. In layman's terms, that means if the VIX is less than 29 on Jan 5, I earn 23% in about a month. If it's over 30, I lose 100% of the amount at stake (which is $1 per unit). I sold 8 contracts so there's $800 at stake, and $184 profit to be made.

My view from the street level says Wall Street is a lot more concerned about COVID-19 than Main Street, and there is little political appetite for restrictions in the U.S. Will hundreds of thousands die in the next 3 months - absolutely yes - but profits will be fine.

[joe189man]

what do you folks think about AI - C3.ai, inc.?
its right around its 52 week low

[ice_beard]

KLXE up 18% today, but after a brutal sell-off the past two weeks.  Bottom is/was IN. 

[EliteZags]

some other "cult stocks" I've been adding on these dips

TTCF
CRSR
PLTR


plus bought the massive DOCU plummet last wk

[Pizzabrewer]

KLXE
It's a oil support company.  The stock has bottomed, it has a low float, and a current market cap around 50m but projected to have 1b in revenue (seriously).  They've had some mergers in the past few years and appear well positioned for an upcoming boom in service needs.  Some believe they are heavily shorted and are ripe for a short squeeze too.  On paper, it looks like a shitty company, but so were/are the companies I've done the best on in the OG space since 2020. (CPE, CDEV, PVAC, OXY, etc.)  The worse the balance sheet, the more gain there is to have in share price.  Most of the E&P companies have already seen their share prices rise significantly, they track the price per barrel somewhat.  The services sector lags because their work comes later in the cycle.  The early quarterlies in the space are showing signs of improvement.  Crappy companies like BORR are heading up because new contracts are coming in.  KLXE fits in this space.  The biggies in this space are HAL, SLB and their performance is somewhat indicative of the services market.  This is not a long term hold.  I'll take my 3-10x and call it good.

Thanks for this post. The market cap makes absolutely no sense given the size of the business. Q3 financials showed they are close to positive EBIDTA and the balance sheet isn’t really all that bad. Yet the market drove the valuation down to damn near zero.

Predictions are that US oil/gas production will increase throughout 2022 and 2023. KLX is well-positioned.

I bought a few shares from $4.44 down to $3.22. Today they’re now all green.

[ice_beard]

KLXE
It's a oil support company.  The stock has bottomed, it has a low float, and a current market cap around 50m but projected to have 1b in revenue (seriously).  They've had some mergers in the past few years and appear well positioned for an upcoming boom in service needs.  Some believe they are heavily shorted and are ripe for a short squeeze too.  On paper, it looks like a shitty company, but so were/are the companies I've done the best on in the OG space since 2020. (CPE, CDEV, PVAC, OXY, etc.)  The worse the balance sheet, the more gain there is to have in share price.  Most of the E&P companies have already seen their share prices rise significantly, they track the price per barrel somewhat.  The services sector lags because their work comes later in the cycle.  The early quarterlies in the space are showing signs of improvement.  Crappy companies like BORR are heading up because new contracts are coming in.  KLXE fits in this space.  The biggies in this space are HAL, SLB and their performance is somewhat indicative of the services market.  This is not a long term hold.  I'll take my 3-10x and call it good.

Thanks for this post. The market cap makes absolutely no sense given the size of the business. Q3 financials showed they are close to positive EBIDTA and the balance sheet isn’t really all that bad. Yet the market drove the valuation down to damn near zero.

Predictions are that US oil/gas production will increase throughout 2022 and 2023. KLX is well-positioned.

I bought a few shares from $4.44 down to $3.22. Today they’re now all green.

Congrats on your low average.  This is going to be a fun ride.

[svosavvy]

<5% investable NW:

COIN-long

BYND-recent long

ATAI-recent long

CGC-long

RSX leap puts jan 2024 $14 strike-buy open

UNG- re-opened long

TKC July 2022 $2.50 puts-buy open

[joemcd333]

RECAF pushing $10.

While I'm not pointing finger(s) here, I did buy RECAF a 6.5 based on this thread.
Current 5.48.

You will do well.

If you don't want to hold for 2 years, don't buy this stock. IMO, its a great 2 year hold. I'm up to almost 10k shares and holding until 2024 (or it busts lol) This year I think there will be a resource report and JV agreement and those should push the price up significantly, although I think some people have unrealistic expectations. My own estimations predict $15 per share per 1Billion barrels recoverable, assuming some very conservative oil pricing. and that is a long term evaluation, not a prediction of what the price will be immediately after announcement of resource report. Should be fun!
Brent Oil $/Barrel as of 5/4/2021   $50.00
Outstanding Shares as of 7/28/2021   215,000,000
Dilution percentage   0.10
Recoverable amount (bn barrels) NAMIBIA   2.90
Recoverable Amount (bn barrels) BOTSWANA   0.10
Project lifespan in years   25
NAMIBIA Production value before depreciation   145,000,000,000.00
Production Value less 10% stake Namibia   130,500,000,000.00
Namibia production value less 5% royalty   123,975,000,000.00
BOTSWANA Production value before depreciation   5,000,000,000.00
Botswana production less 10% max royalty   4,500,000,000.00
Cost per barrel overheads   25.00
Cost of production   75,000,000,000.00
Cost of production to be met by Namibia   7,250,000,000.00
Net Asset value before depreciation   60,725,000,000.00
Depreciation value over lifecycle   0.06
Actual Depreciated asset value   14,148,841,837.35
Less relevant corporate taxes   4,890,782,995.11
Net asset value after taxes (market cap)   9,258,058,842.24
Target Share Value    $43.06
Current Share Value    $5.80

[joe189man]

Joining the Recaf club at $5.23/ share
i have some Rocket Lab also

ARKK is my best performing stock/fund in my brokerage account

woof - this didnt age well

Haha! At least Rocket Lab is up about 50% from its initial SPAC price!

Neither of these have aged well Ark k is now in the high $70s and rocket lab is sub $10 flirting with all time lows

[Rdy2Fire]

Most recent moonshots all of which have very good potential to succeed.

PLTR
ME
RBLX

Total crap shoots; well aren't they all really??

SOLO (maybe someone will purchase or merge with)
CLNE

[joe189man]

How far does the brain trust think KLXE will run?

[joe189man]

Are you guys holding RECAF still? I am thinking about dumping it

[vand]

This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.

[joe189man]

This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.

@vand i think you are right, most of my picks from this thread have done quite poorly, painful learning experience

[HPstache]

Are you guys holding RECAF still? I am thinking about dumping it

I got in early enough that I still have some really nice gains.  With that being said, I am still sticking with it... this is not the time to jump out.  All the indications seem to point to there being oil and some wells targeted at oil trapping features being drilled this month.  If you believe in the initial assumption that there is oil in the Kavango region, nothing has changed to disprove that... but a LOT of things seem to be suggesting there is.

[HPstache]

This thread has been hilarious.
If we had a equal-weighted portfolio of all the suggestions thrown out there I'm reckon it'll have done even worse than the ARKK fund since the start of the thread.

Just goes to show that having a good idea isn't nearly enough.

@vand i think you are right, most of my picks from this thread have done quite poorly, painful learning experience

To be fair with RECAF, it is still up 70% since it was first mentioned and has been as high as 3X-ing for a short while.  Also, to be fair, "moonshot" investments are high-risk high-reward typically, so it's not shocking that most have been bad calls.

[Pizzabrewer]

RECAF ain’t dead yet. In fact just the opposite. Yes it’s taken way too long to drill the next well but we are drilling right now. They plan to drill 4 wells back-to-back (for which they’re fully funded), based on the seismic data they’ve accumulated.

[HPstache]

RECAF ain’t dead yet. In fact just the opposite. Yes it’s taken way too long to drill the next well but we are drilling right now. They plan to drill 4 wells back-to-back (for which they’re fully funded), based on the seismic data they’ve accumulated.

Yep.  It's going slower than expected but I still have really high hopes.  All signs still seem to be pointing to something exciting before the end of the year give or take

[Pizzabrewer]

KLXE is having a moment.

[Must_ache]

Obligatory disclaimer: the majority of my investments are in index funds and these speculative investments are a very small portion of my portfolio.

Now that that's out of the way... here are a few investments I hope to see 2-6x returns on:

MIND
CVM
ORRCF
IPOB
BTWNU

Thought I'd see how the original poster's picks did since mid-December 2020:

MIND -71%
CVM -78%
ORRCF -62%
IPOB -> OPEN -91%
BTWNU -16%

Happy to breakdown my thesis on these picks if there's interest.

Sure, I'd love to short whatever you're recommending.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Must_ache - The original post was minutes after the market opened on Dec 8 2020, so you could use the opening price on that day for stock prices.  On Dec 8 2020, S&P 500 ETF "SPY" opened at 367.72/sh.  Today, over 22 months later, SPY opened at 365.12/sh.  Without dividends, the S&P 500 would have lost money over that time.  (That is from the open - the S&P 500 rose +2.4% today, closing at $374.29)

My moonshot was/is the Covid-19 recovery stocks.

My 20 month experiment started in March 2020, and used a benchmark of the total stock market (VTI) which rose +89% during that time.  But my stock picks beat the market by triple digits, +228%, which you can verify by following the link in my signature.  I didn't edit any of those posts, so the whole thread serves as a record of my moonshot investment.

My next moonshot would probably be private equity investing.  Historically private equity beat public markets up until recently.  When the S&P 500 doubles from 2019-2021, that's a pretty high bar.  But given the current inflation difficulties, I expect private equity beats the public markets for the rest of this decade.

[muskrat]

@MustacheAndaHalf how are you getting exposure to private equity?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

@MustacheAndaHalf how are you getting exposure to private equity?

I joined Long Angle HWN described in this thread, which requires "qualified investor" status ($2.2 million NW).  I like the way their deals provide group due diligence - and joining a deal is 100% optional.  You can even ignore the entire area discussing deals.  Note some hedge funds have a higher NW requirement for investing.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/post-fire/long-angle-hnw-forum/

This article compares private equity (PE) to the S&P 500, finding it beat it over the past 10 and 20 years.
https://www.personalcapital.com/blog/investing-markets/public-vs-private-equity-differences/

This Investopedia article has different performance numbers for a 20 year period, but also concludes PE beat public markets.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040615/how-do-returns-private-equity-investments-compare-returns-other-types-investments.asp

PE firms acquire, improve and then sell a company, profitting off the increase in company value.  That takes years, which means PE investments are locked up for years - they are illiquid.  The first article mentions 14.3% for the past decade, and frankly if my PE investments have that return I'll view them as a failure.  We'll see.

[BigLumox]

RECAF ain’t dead yet. In fact just the opposite. Yes it’s taken way too long to drill the next well but we are drilling right now. They plan to drill 4 wells back-to-back (for which they’re fully funded), based on the seismic data they’ve accumulated.

Yep.  It's going slower than expected but I still have really high hopes.  All signs still seem to be pointing to something exciting before the end of the year give or take

rough day for recaf

[HPstache]

RECAF ain’t dead yet. In fact just the opposite. Yes it’s taken way too long to drill the next well but we are drilling right now. They plan to drill 4 wells back-to-back (for which they’re fully funded), based on the seismic data they’ve accumulated.

Yep.  It's going slower than expected but I still have really high hopes.  All signs still seem to be pointing to something exciting before the end of the year give or take

rough day for recaf

Sad Trombone.  Should have cashed out when my investment 3X'd.  There is still hope, there is still a petroleum system down there, just need to find the right trap...