Author Topic: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool  (Read 1907 times)

jnw

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VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« on: May 10, 2022, 06:09:05 AM »
Just for fun, the other day, I signed up for Motley Fool subscription, because I had never done it before. It was only $89 for a year. I subscribed knowing I could cancel in 30 days and get a full refund.

It's only been a couple days but wow, I've known they like to try and pick "disruptive innovation" companies like Cathie Wood does, but it seems like that "sector" is over-saturated!   Selling off quite a bit the past few months in comparison to S&P 500 etc..

Yesterday, May 9 2022, VTI dropped 3.54%, QQQ dropped only 3.91%.. but ARKK dropped a whopping 9.86%.  Motley Fool's top 10 Timely Stock picks dropped 7.35% as well -- equally weighted.

So it seems like the subscription is just a complete waste and I'll probably get a refund before the 30 days are up.

I find many of the companies Cathie Wood picks aren't truly disruptive.  E.g. Zoom, Roku, Coinbase, Robinhood, etc.. really?   Zoom and Roku have TONS of competition.  A small team of developers could write a competitive product to Zoom in probably 6 months at most.  Roku has competition from Apple TV, Amazon Fire Stick etc., along with the plethora of streaming services which have also been declining in value lately -- heck CNN+ had to cancel their streaming service in less than a month of it going live.  Regarding, Robinhood? It was disruptive at one point but it sure isn't now with most big brokerages offering free commissions, including the ability to designate beneficiaries to individual accounts, avoiding probate -- with Robinhood it has to go through the estate/probate.  Coinbase.. really?  She pushes cryptocurrencies and there are several Motley Fools which like crypto as well.  I think it's a complete joke and agree with Buffet and Munger:  Tulips & Turds.   Square/Block is also another big holding of her's.  Jack Dorsey just recently praised Elon for wanting to purchase Twitter.. all three are crypto lovers and to me just like to really hype things up.  To me ARKK, Crypto, Tesla are just huge speculative bubbles which are now starting to pop -- Tesla dropped 9% yesterday.  Cathie Wood needs to own up to her mistakes instead of blaming passive index funds -- Jim Cramer has said so on his show as well.  Her ARKK fund almost 4x'd in one year from Mar 2020 to Feb 2021.. it was PUMPED and now for the past year it's been DUMPING.  I looked at the fundamentals of her top picks in ARKK and even now after a 75% drop, they look horrific!  Incredibly high P/E and P/S .. horrible cashflow, value, profitability etc..  IMO, they need further correction.  To think they were many times higher in price a year ago, makes me just shake my head.. especially since many (or most?) aren't that innovative, with the exception of perhaps Tesla (still overpriced though if you ask me).

I'll wait for a truly disruptive stock to actually become disruptive before purchasing.. and not speculate.  Companies like Apple, Amazon and Netflix.  All of which I was BLOWN away by when they came out and adopted them early on.  If I had invested in those companies I'd be rich.  But I didn't have money back then mostly due to blindly overspending without tracking expenses.  Now when something like this happens again I'll buy into the company.   I don't know what it is yet but we'll see.  Last thing that impressed me was AT&T's fiber in my area.. was stuck with Cox Cable for years and the AT&T offering is at a much better price but has 30 times faster upload speeds and twice as fast download speeds.. no equip fee, no upping fee after 12 months and no data cap.   But I know AT&T is a big dividend company now.. we'll see what happens. They had good earnings recently.   Not much else has excited me. 

But anyways, VTI all the way for me is the best bet.  And if a new company ever does come around which truly is disruptive, and not currently way overvalued, Ill buy into it.. maybe make it like 20% of my portfolio or something.. A company which I truly believe in like I did with Apple, Amazon and Netflix.

So anyways, yeah I am gonna cancel the Motley Fool subscription.  To think people spend 5+ hours each day watching the market, charts and financial videos .. only to see their actively managed portion of their account to deplete by 75% over the past year; compared to someone spending only 15 minutes per month investing in VTI only to lose 18.8% in comparison.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2022, 06:27:49 AM by JenniferW »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2022, 06:55:12 AM »
I signed up for a couple Motley Fool services back in Nov 2021.  I even went back in time and bought stocks they previously recommended.  Overall, I suppose those stocks weren't diversified enough.  After selling some then buying back, I sold them all in March.

I had some overlap with ARKK stocks, which also aren't diversified.  Like Nasdaq stocks, a significant number don't have profits - they need outside money to keep going.  As inflation goes up and money gets scarce, they start to have a serious problem staying in business.  For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.

But I also think it's valuable to understand the perspective of people recommending those stocks, to get a balanced view and avoid missing key insights.  For Motley Fool, they claim buy & hold for 5 years is a key tenet to investment performance.  Kathie Wood also claims she's buying for the long term.

jnw

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2022, 07:00:20 AM »
Wow, one of Motley Fool's recommended stocks is down 57% premarket right now (May 10, 2022).

jnw

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2022, 07:03:03 AM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.

Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2022, 12:23:03 PM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

jnw

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2022, 01:59:02 PM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

I only day trade with something like TQQQ/SQQQ, since it's triple leverage.  I will day trade or even swing trade something like SARK/ARKK.  I have a position in ARKK today. first one I've ever taken.  Small $200 position for fun :)  It's a swing trade right now.. up 5% at closing bell.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2022, 02:03:14 PM by JenniferW »

ChpBstrd

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2022, 08:51:11 PM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

I only day trade with something like TQQQ/SQQQ, since it's triple leverage.  I will day trade or even swing trade something like SARK/ARKK.  I have a position in ARKK today. first one I've ever taken.  Small $200 position for fun :)  It's a swing trade right now.. up 5% at closing bell.

Hmmm... SARK has an options market.

You can sell a below-the-market put option and earn 4.6% in eight days. If you lose that bet the worst thing that could happen is you own SARK and you can then write an ATM call option to get rid of it and earn another 7% on your way out in another eight days. And if that doesn't work, just repeat the process of selling fat calls every week forever and you'll eventually earn back your investment.

You could lose money, but it would be hard.

Re: Motley Fool - you can get the same bad information for free from SeekingAlpha.com. You can even earn money creating bad investment advice by writing articles there for $40-60 each (expert-level tip: that is the alpha). 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2022, 06:28:51 AM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

I only day trade with something like TQQQ/SQQQ, since it's triple leverage.  I will day trade or even swing trade something like SARK/ARKK.  I have a position in ARKK today. first one I've ever taken.  Small $200 position for fun :)  It's a swing trade right now.. up 5% at closing bell.

Hmmm... SARK has an options market.

You can sell a below-the-market put option and earn 4.6% in eight days. If you lose that bet the worst thing that could happen is you own SARK and you can then write an ATM call option to get rid of it and earn another 7% on your way out in another eight days. And if that doesn't work, just repeat the process of selling fat calls every week forever and you'll eventually earn back your investment.

You could lose money, but it would be hard.

Re: Motley Fool - you can get the same bad information for free from SeekingAlpha.com. You can even earn money creating bad investment advice by writing articles there for $40-60 each (expert-level tip: that is the alpha).
I find the data Zacks puts in their articles interesting, although I haven't tracked them closely enough to know how their stock picks do against the market.  Seeking Alpha has a large number of contributors, so the views could be from many different people.

Because of the inverse relationship between SARK and ARKK, you could buy calls on SARK or puts on ARKK.  Given ARKK options have exporations out to Jan 2024, and SARK options don't go past December (7 months away), I'd prefer the greater volume of the ARKK options market.  That can also mean reduced bid-ask spreads.

As to the easy 4.6% in a week... SARK fell 5.7% yesterday and has already fallen 5.4% in the pre-market today.  The 4.6% put option premium doesn't cover 11% of losses now, let alone 8 days from now.

Scandium

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2022, 08:47:41 AM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

I only day trade with something like TQQQ/SQQQ, since it's triple leverage.  I will day trade or even swing trade something like SARK/ARKK.  I have a position in ARKK today. first one I've ever taken.  Small $200 position for fun :)  It's a swing trade right now.. up 5% at closing bell.

Hmmm... SARK has an options market.

You can sell a below-the-market put option and earn 4.6% in eight days. If you lose that bet the worst thing that could happen is you own SARK and you can then write an ATM call option to get rid of it and earn another 7% on your way out in another eight days. And if that doesn't work, just repeat the process of selling fat calls every week forever and you'll eventually earn back your investment.

You could lose money, but it would be hard.

Re: Motley Fool - you can get the same bad information for free from SeekingAlpha.com. You can even earn money creating bad investment advice by writing articles there for $40-60 each (expert-level tip: that is the alpha).
I find the data Zacks puts in their articles interesting, although I haven't tracked them closely enough to know how their stock picks do against the market.  Seeking Alpha has a large number of contributors, so the views could be from many different people.

Because of the inverse relationship between SARK and ARKK, you could buy calls on SARK or puts on ARKK.  Given ARKK options have exporations out to Jan 2024, and SARK options don't go past December (7 months away), I'd prefer the greater volume of the ARKK options market.  That can also mean reduced bid-ask spreads.

As to the easy 4.6% in a week... SARK fell 5.7% yesterday and has already fallen 5.4% in the pre-market today.  The 4.6% put option premium doesn't cover 11% of losses now, let alone 8 days from now.

yeah ARKK puts seem like a terrible idea. Selling a put at $40 for $1.22 premium, but it was a $35 five days ago! High risk you get stuck with this turd of a fund, and it keeps plummeting!

ChpBstrd

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Re: VTI vs QQQ / ARKK / Motley Fool
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2022, 08:53:22 PM »
For me, investing bearishly, I prefer to have short or inverse exposure to this group of stocks right now.
Oh like SARK? I just heard about that the other day.
It might have been me mentioning SARK in another thread, which is one of my small (3-4%) positions.  Lots of those aggressive growth companies have no profits, and revenue in the distant future - which is penalized by higher inflation.  I think it was up +10% yesterday and down -7% early today.  If you're not willing to invest in an inverse 3x S&P 500, I would also avoid SARK, which is even more volatile.  Also worth noting I may sell any of these at any time without telling anyone, so everyone is on their own.

I only day trade with something like TQQQ/SQQQ, since it's triple leverage.  I will day trade or even swing trade something like SARK/ARKK.  I have a position in ARKK today. first one I've ever taken.  Small $200 position for fun :)  It's a swing trade right now.. up 5% at closing bell.

Hmmm... SARK has an options market.

You can sell a below-the-market put option and earn 4.6% in eight days. If you lose that bet the worst thing that could happen is you own SARK and you can then write an ATM call option to get rid of it and earn another 7% on your way out in another eight days. And if that doesn't work, just repeat the process of selling fat calls every week forever and you'll eventually earn back your investment.

You could lose money, but it would be hard.

Re: Motley Fool - you can get the same bad information for free from SeekingAlpha.com. You can even earn money creating bad investment advice by writing articles there for $40-60 each (expert-level tip: that is the alpha).
I find the data Zacks puts in their articles interesting, although I haven't tracked them closely enough to know how their stock picks do against the market.  Seeking Alpha has a large number of contributors, so the views could be from many different people.

Because of the inverse relationship between SARK and ARKK, you could buy calls on SARK or puts on ARKK.  Given ARKK options have exporations out to Jan 2024, and SARK options don't go past December (7 months away), I'd prefer the greater volume of the ARKK options market.  That can also mean reduced bid-ask spreads.

As to the easy 4.6% in a week... SARK fell 5.7% yesterday and has already fallen 5.4% in the pre-market today.  The 4.6% put option premium doesn't cover 11% of losses now, let alone 8 days from now.

yeah ARKK puts seem like a terrible idea. Selling a put at $40 for $1.22 premium, but it was a $35 five days ago! High risk you get stuck with this turd of a fund, and it keeps plummeting!
Something I've realized with my speculations is that if you want to bet on a turd of a fund or a turd of a company going down, you need to do so on a long enough timescale. E.g. 6 months not six days. It takes a while to be right. Professionals short companies on the scale of years.