Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 119618 times)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #700 on: August 28, 2020, 01:19:01 PM »

Dude, you gotta own it. What you are doing is the *definition* of market timing.

Fair enough. I had said that I'm not trying to time it because I'll happily jump back in with the SP500 at 3500 when the situation normalizes a little.

Hey @Full_Beard !  Are you in or isn't this normalized a little?  Top is IN!


Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #701 on: August 31, 2020, 05:53:16 PM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #702 on: August 31, 2020, 09:53:17 PM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

Au contraire, the TOP is always IN, says the guru Thorstache :-)

des999

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #703 on: September 01, 2020, 06:39:51 AM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

sorry if I missed it, but when did you go to cash? 

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #704 on: September 02, 2020, 03:03:49 AM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

So when are you thinking?  S&P @ 4000?

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #705 on: September 02, 2020, 06:50:26 AM »
Look, there are a lot of people who thought this original experiment was dumb, but who also have no good explanation for why SP is > 3,500 today.

My stab at it: the incredibly loose monetary and fiscal policy of the first half of the year. The problem: we're going to lose one of those.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #706 on: September 02, 2020, 07:56:48 AM »
Look, there are a lot of people who thought this original experiment was dumb, but who also have no good explanation for why SP is > 3,500 today.

My stab at it: the incredibly loose monetary and fiscal policy of the first half of the year. The problem: we're going to lose one of those.

That's the thing, though, you don't *need* to explain why the market does what it does - unless you're one of those financial-headline writers. Which as an aside I think would be a hilariously fun job...

The market is a herd of emotional humans, plus some black-box algos. It's inherently super unpredictable. The S&P could be a 2k right now and I'd shrug and buy more, and it could be at 4k and I'd do the same.

-W

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #707 on: September 02, 2020, 08:57:40 AM »
Indeed I am mad at myself for not upping contributions to retirement accounts during March and April. When you're in an environment in which prices are down 30%, it is incredibly hard to jump into the teeth of the market like Capt. Jack jumps into the mouth of the Kraken at the end of one of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #708 on: September 02, 2020, 09:08:45 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $12,399.37

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $10,984.29
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 02:14:14 PM by v8rx7guy »

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #709 on: September 02, 2020, 09:21:06 AM »
Thanks for the update and running the numbers @v8rx7guy.   I hadn't been following this thread closely and didn't realize he sold again.  I guess market timing gets addicting.  All that trouble for a total gain of $1,390, and that was a rare win.

I did sell some stock about 3 weeks but not because I really wanted to, we decided to put a down payment on a home.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 09:23:14 AM by HBFIRE »

frugalnacho

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #710 on: September 02, 2020, 09:23:49 AM »
Indeed I am mad at myself for not upping contributions to retirement accounts during March and April. When you're in an environment in which prices are down 30%, it is incredibly hard to jump into the teeth of the market like Capt. Jack jumps into the mouth of the Kraken at the end of one of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

I disagree.  Everything that MMM, and JL Collins, etc have drilled into me, as well as this forum, and all the finance books I've read either as MMM recommendations, or ones I've independently sought out have prepared me for that down turn.  I saved as much as possible and threw everything into the market.  I even pulled $10k out of my emergency fund (savings account) and threw it into my brokerage account on March 16, 2020 since prices were so low.  I was doing back flips into that kraken.   

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #711 on: September 02, 2020, 09:31:28 AM »
Thanks for the update and running the numbers @v8rx7guy.   I hadn't been following this thread closely and didn't realize he sold again.  I guess market timing gets addicting.  All that trouble for a total gain of $1,390, and that was a rare win.

I did sell some stock about 3 weeks but not because I really wanted to, we decided to put a down payment on a home.

Yes, it was a bit buried, but here is the quote:

This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #712 on: September 02, 2020, 11:00:25 AM »
LOL

That guy sold almost right at the bottom.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #713 on: September 02, 2020, 03:39:52 PM »
LOL

That guy sold almost right at the bottom.

Market timing is really tough!!!

Indeed I am mad at myself for not upping contributions to retirement accounts during March and April. When you're in an environment in which prices are down 30%, it is incredibly hard to jump into the teeth of the market like Capt. Jack jumps into the mouth of the Kraken at the end of one of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

I disagree.  Everything that MMM, and JL Collins, etc have drilled into me, as well as this forum, and all the finance books I've read either as MMM recommendations, or ones I've independently sought out have prepared me for that down turn.  I saved as much as possible and threw everything into the market.  I even pulled $10k out of my emergency fund (savings account) and threw it into my brokerage account on March 16, 2020 since prices were so low.  I was doing back flips into that kraken.   

FIREd here, no income but my modest (very modest!) investments. Rebalanced on March 10, basically selling bond fund and buying stock fund. One of my informal rules (all I have) is "don't rebalance more than once every three months", so I missed the bottom.

The buyers on this thread bought early compared to the bottom. The seller sold late compared to the bottom. Anecdata only??

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #714 on: September 02, 2020, 03:50:52 PM »
LOL

That guy sold almost right at the bottom.

Market timing is really tough!!!

To be fair though . . . all indications did make it seem like the market was about to plummet when he sold.  He did what I kinda thought I should do.  The market makes no sense at all, and trying to make sense of it is often doomed to failure.  Fortunately I remembered that.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #715 on: September 02, 2020, 04:11:22 PM »
Yeah, learning from others' expriences is a lot less costly than learning from my own!

bthewalls

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #716 on: September 02, 2020, 04:27:05 PM »
Ok...letís cut to it!...

Market is bonkers and artificially propped up...end of

Whose gonna market time and go to cash.? Or even partially cash

Barry

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #717 on: September 02, 2020, 05:09:42 PM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

sorry if I missed it, but when did you go to cash?

This thread got some legs again.

I didn't go all cash; I'm in bonds, earning 5-6% which is meager these days.

But, here's my short story: I started saving when I got my first job in the fall of 1998. I've been mostly buying the SP500 index fund since that time and have amassed $1.4M while working for non-profits and the government. My wife and I are relatively frugal, raising 3 kids in Alaska. I'll be out of student debt this year and our house will be paid off in 5 years. In April 2019, I ignored the traditional advice and pulled everything out of the market for a variety of reasons not worth debating. A year later, the pandemic hit, the market dropped, quickly rebounded, and now has moved even higher. I plan to get back in when the insanity diminishes. When will that happen; will it ever happen? I don't pretend to have a decent guess. Folks far wiser in economics and stocks have put forth several theories to explain today's situation. So maybe I continue contributing the maximum permitted for the next 10 years and stick with bonds, and then move into the next phase of my life with $2M instead of $4M. I can live with that.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #718 on: September 02, 2020, 10:07:33 PM »
Whose gonna market time and go to cash.? Or even partially cash

I'm going to put maybe 6 figures *into* the market.



Because I'm about to sell my house, and the money will go into my asset allocation plan which is mostly stock index funds.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #719 on: September 02, 2020, 10:42:51 PM »
Whose gonna market time and go to cash.? Or even partially cash

I'm going to put maybe 6 figures *into* the market.
Because I'm about to sell my house, and the money will go into my asset allocation plan which is mostly stock index funds.

Wow, I'm having a hard time taking money out because I was conservative but now with the run up, maybe a little over-exposed...  but only putting 401k contributions in from now on.  Lots of dry powder accumulating with no good options (bonds suck, equities are over priced, maybe buy a rental property?)...  only getting 0.5% return on cash with no loss (depending on how you view inflation) seems OK, I guess? 

But then I watch S&P500 go up ~1% every day...  what a weird investing world we find ourselves in...  Can't sell, but can't pinch my nose and buy more either.

daverobev

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #720 on: September 03, 2020, 02:03:15 AM »
Whose gonna market time and go to cash.? Or even partially cash

I'm going to put maybe 6 figures *into* the market.
Because I'm about to sell my house, and the money will go into my asset allocation plan which is mostly stock index funds.

Wow, I'm having a hard time taking money out because I was conservative but now with the run up, maybe a little over-exposed...  but only putting 401k contributions in from now on.  Lots of dry powder accumulating with no good options (bonds suck, equities are over priced, maybe buy a rental property?)...  only getting 0.5% return on cash with no loss (depending on how you view inflation) seems OK, I guess? 

But then I watch S&P500 go up ~1% every day...  what a weird investing world we find ourselves in...  Can't sell, but can't pinch my nose and buy more either.

In terms of "explain"... it seems to me that it's pretty much, lots and lots of QE and nowhere else for it to go. Bonds? Near zero return - what's the point. Housing sure, but we're talking about LOTS of QE here (prices seem to be going up in certain markets - eg Vancouver and Toronto, from what I understand), so hard to do. People (rich people) seem to be just... throwing money at Apple (and Tesla and...).

I read a piece yesterday saying the market value of Apple is now greater than the entire FTSE 100. I mean... wow.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #721 on: September 03, 2020, 02:40:08 AM »
Yeah, I'm selling my house because I want to move, and I don't want to own again for probably at least ten years. Certainly not in the next 5.

It feels really weird to think about dumping money into the market right now, but what else am I going to do with it? I already have a 2-year cash cushion, and I still think one reasonably likely way "out" of this situation is inflation instead of a nominal market crash, in which cash tons of cash would be bad.

But mainly I'm a passive investor and anti-market-timer. As crazy as it feels, if I suddenly get a big pile of money, it gets invested per my plan.

daverobev

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #722 on: September 03, 2020, 05:04:05 AM »
Yeah, I'm selling my house because I want to move, and I don't want to own again for probably at least ten years. Certainly not in the next 5.

It feels really weird to think about dumping money into the market right now, but what else am I going to do with it? I already have a 2-year cash cushion, and I still think one reasonably likely way "out" of this situation is inflation instead of a nominal market crash, in which cash tons of cash would be bad.

But mainly I'm a passive investor and anti-market-timer. As crazy as it feels, if I suddenly get a big pile of money, it gets invested per my plan.

Putting it into *a* property wouldn't, I think, be a terrible idea because at least in theory, the value will track the value of property generally. So if in ten years you find house prices have doubled but stocks have stayed flat, well, bleh. But if house prices have doubled and you own a house and want to own a different house, not a massive problem. Of course property is local, renting out property is risky, there are transaction costs... Why not buy two, to mitigate risk; take a mortgage to mitigate inflation risk... Depends on how much you have in stocks already, tolerances, and so on.

des999

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #723 on: September 03, 2020, 06:47:18 AM »
Ha, nope, the irrational exuberance continues, lost opportunity costs rise, but I'm still sidelining my stash.

You say the top is in? I see zero evidence that equities are going to be derailed this week.

sorry if I missed it, but when did you go to cash?

This thread got some legs again.

I didn't go all cash; I'm in bonds, earning 5-6% which is meager these days.

But, here's my short story: I started saving when I got my first job in the fall of 1998. I've been mostly buying the SP500 index fund since that time and have amassed $1.4M while working for non-profits and the government. My wife and I are relatively frugal, raising 3 kids in Alaska. I'll be out of student debt this year and our house will be paid off in 5 years. In April 2019, I ignored the traditional advice and pulled everything out of the market for a variety of reasons not worth debating. A year later, the pandemic hit, the market dropped, quickly rebounded, and now has moved even higher. I plan to get back in when the insanity diminishes. When will that happen; will it ever happen? I don't pretend to have a decent guess. Folks far wiser in economics and stocks have put forth several theories to explain today's situation. So maybe I continue contributing the maximum permitted for the next 10 years and stick with bonds, and then move into the next phase of my life with $2M instead of $4M. I can live with that.

thanks for the follow up / backstory.  Good luck.  That seems to be the hardest thing for people to do, which is why I don't sell stock.  Getting out is one thing, but it seems folks are always too gun shy to get back in and miss huge run ups.  It seems much easier for me to stay the course.  I mean, it sounds like you did really well from 1998 to 2019, why change?


FLBiker

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #724 on: September 03, 2020, 10:42:04 AM »
Yeah, I'm selling my house because I want to move, and I don't want to own again for probably at least ten years. Certainly not in the next 5.

It feels really weird to think about dumping money into the market right now, but what else am I going to do with it? I already have a 2-year cash cushion, and I still think one reasonably likely way "out" of this situation is inflation instead of a nominal market crash, in which cash tons of cash would be bad.

But mainly I'm a passive investor and anti-market-timer. As crazy as it feels, if I suddenly get a big pile of money, it gets invested per my plan.

Thanks for this -- I'm in a similar position -- we've got ~$50K from a house sale.  I'm on the phone right now transferring it from US to Canada so I can dump it in index ETFs at Questrade (we just moved from the US to Canada, so I can Vanguard no more).  It's weird because I "know" the market is overpriced right now and I "know" it's going to fall, but I also know that you don't market time, so I'm doing it anyways. :)

I'm keeping more cash on hand than I usually would, but that's because my job isn't as secure as usual.  Even doing that, though, I can't justify keeping out this $50K.

the_fixer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #725 on: September 09, 2020, 07:31:55 AM »
Indeed I am mad at myself for not upping contributions to retirement accounts during March and April. When you're in an environment in which prices are down 30%, it is incredibly hard to jump into the teeth of the market like Capt. Jack jumps into the mouth of the Kraken at the end of one of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.
Shrugs and points out that the Kraken is a mythical creature why fear the unknown?

Luvs me a good sale, rolled a bunch of money in that I was using to churn bank accounts, part of my EF while it was at or right around the low earlier this year. Kicked up my contribution to the max my company will allow 70% and maxed my 401k before it went back up.

Even did a rollover to Roth with an old retirement that just became available to me late last year that I had been trying to decide what to do with it.


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talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #726 on: September 12, 2020, 08:18:01 AM »
Legit props for the Roth roll-over. A lot of wise people manage to time these things to take advantage of market drops.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #727 on: September 12, 2020, 09:20:24 AM »
I'm on the phone right now transferring it from US to Canada so I can dump it in index ETFs at Questrade (we just moved from the US to Canada, so I can Vanguard no more)

All of my ETFs at QT are in Vanguard products. Including holding VTI in USD. You can buy anything you want via your QT account.

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #728 on: September 12, 2020, 11:52:45 AM »
Legit props for the Roth roll-over. A lot of wise people manage to time these things to take advantage of market drops.

I did half of mine for this year on March 17.  It was a bit scary emotionally but mentally I thought it would turn out well.  Looking backward from now I'm glad I did.

(Only did half because I feel pretty strongly about dialing in my tax situation in December when I pretty much know all the numbers for the year.)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #729 on: November 20, 2020, 02:14:39 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $12,399.37

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $10,984.29

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #730 on: November 20, 2020, 04:34:25 PM »

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $12,399.37

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $10,984.29
His actions, however, were conducted with far more style and integrity than the many people who market time, sell in silence and never admit it.

May not be $10,000 worth of consolation, but I believe in giving credit where credit is due!  :)

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #731 on: November 21, 2020, 12:44:49 AM »

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $12,399.37

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $10,984.29
His actions, however, were conducted with far more style and integrity than the many people who market time, sell in silence and never admit it.

May not be $10,000 worth of consolation, but I believe in giving credit where credit is due!  :)

Style?  Like a Front Flip 360 Indy to late FOMO Buyback?

habanero

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #732 on: November 22, 2020, 03:09:18 PM »
My GF is the best investor ever. She has no clue whatsoever of the value of her index funds (two funds). She puts in X per month and never looks at it. Like really never. She has no clue as to the value of her holdings, if they are up or down the last year or whatever. Total ignorance. I admire it, I aspire to the same standard, but fail.

I don't belive for a second anyone on this forum who brags about not knowing anything about what the market is doing or what their NW is (they wouldnt brag if that was the case). But my GF is completely clueless. No interest whatsoever,. She didn't even ask me in March (knowing I know all of this stuff due to professional reasons). Even when I said the market was going totally ballistic and there were moves never seen before she never asked.

Respect.

Villanelle

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #733 on: November 22, 2020, 05:13:39 PM »
My GF is the best investor ever. She has no clue whatsoever of the value of her index funds (two funds). She puts in X per month and never looks at it. Like really never. She has no clue as to the value of her holdings, if they are up or down the last year or whatever. Total ignorance. I admire it, I aspire to the same standard, but fail.

I don't belive for a second anyone on this forum who brags about not knowing anything about what the market is doing or what their NW is (they wouldnt brag if that was the case). But my GF is completely clueless. No interest whatsoever,. She didn't even ask me in March (knowing I know all of this stuff due to professional reasons). Even when I said the market was going totally ballistic and there were moves never seen before she never asked.

Respect.

You may not believe it, but that's me. I wandered into this thread after not reading for several months, and here is where I learned that apparantly the market is well up.  I realize that due to the strangness of everything this year, I forgot my mid-year rebalance check.  I usually look mid-year, but I've never been far enough off to actually have to rebalance.  Then I look again in Dec/Jan when it's time to change the allocation of the investment of DH's TSP.  That's it.)

Since I'm watching and reading even less news than normal, I couldn't have told you even roughly whether the current market is vaguely "up" or "down", much less any specifics.

I don't care because it is completely non-actionable.  I'm not going to change my AA.  I invest the amount I invest, regardless of the market, and most of that is automated.  And I'm not working and DH will keep working for at least another three years for non-financial reasons.  So why would I waste my time seeing if the market is up 4% or down 8%, or whatever?  And why would I bother to check my NW.  (My investing spreadsheet does actually calculate the worth of investments, but not the two properties we own or any other aspect of NW. So twice a year, I have a sense that we have about $X00,000 invested.)


BigMoneyJim

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #734 on: November 22, 2020, 07:42:24 PM »
Meh, I'm a buy-and-hold investor, but I retired a year ago with really not quite enough to be sure it'll work. So I'm watching a bit too much because I'll want to get some income if it doesn't keep shooting up for a while.

That said, I'm finally over the "this can't continue in this situation" mindset and in the "I don't understand it, but I don't have to" mindset. I just need to know if and when to start hustling for new money top is in.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #735 on: November 23, 2020, 08:41:16 AM »
I don't belive for a second anyone on this forum who brags about not knowing anything about what the market is doing or what their NW is (they wouldnt brag if that was the case). But my GF is completely clueless. No interest whatsoever,. She didn't even ask me in March (knowing I know all of this stuff due to professional reasons). Even when I said the market was going totally ballistic and there were moves never seen before she never asked.

Respect.

This is one of the more judgmental posts I've read on this forum for a whole variety of reasons.

Respect.

Malcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #736 on: November 23, 2020, 07:43:43 PM »
I don't belive for a second anyone on this forum who brags about not knowing anything about what the market is doing or what their NW is (they wouldnt brag if that was the case). But my GF is completely clueless. No interest whatsoever,. She didn't even ask me in March (knowing I know all of this stuff due to professional reasons). Even when I said the market was going totally ballistic and there were moves never seen before she never asked.

Respect.

This is one of the more judgmental posts I've read on this forum for a whole variety of reasons.

Respect.

I know right?

What a strange, strange post.

jsloan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #737 on: November 24, 2020, 02:42:54 PM »
Update Post: I posted a few months ago about turning a percentage of "market timed winnings" to cash which I did around end of Sept.  I also reallocated a chunk of my IRAs to gold and utilities (reduce risk).  Its insane, but I am still up 25% this compared to the S&P of 9ish% percent as of today.  I'm sitting on about 20% cash at the moment, but if I would have let it ride in the tech and EV stocks (cough bitcoin cough) that I invested into in march I would be very much in ER territory.  My investments as a whole are up $150,000 since Jan 1 and I recent crossed the 1 mil mark for total investments (minus home/auto etc)!.  I honestly don't want this to be a brag post, but this market is truly INSANE! 

With that said, I watch the market everyday now (not mustachian) because I'm expecting the bottom to fall out and hence why I still keep cash on hand.  This insanity very much reminds me of the dot com bust (I recently turned 40 and began investing then), but I'm afraid at this moment of changing anything.  If you would have told me that I could earn the same amount of money in 2020 that took me the last 5 years to accumulate during a global pandemic I would have laughed at you!  I'm planning to rotate back into my bland index funds over the next few weeks, but it is obviously tough to do so when I'm still earning insane returns. 

My personal opinion is that (not that anyone asked), clean energy and tech is overvalued.  I'm just not sure when the party will end!       
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 03:36:07 PM by jsloan »

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #738 on: November 24, 2020, 06:58:32 PM »
Update Post: I posted a few months ago about turning a percentage of "market timed winnings" to cash which I did around end of Sept.  I also reallocated a chunk of my IRAs to gold and utilities (reduce risk).  Its insane, but I am still up 25% this compared to the S&P of 9ish% percent as of today.  I'm sitting on about 20% cash at the moment, but if I would have let it ride in the tech and EV stocks (cough bitcoin cough) that I invested into in march I would be very much in ER territory.  My investments as a whole are up $150,000 since Jan 1 and I recent crossed the 1 mil mark for total investments (minus home/auto etc)!.  I honestly don't want this to be a brag post, but this market is truly INSANE! 

With that said, I watch the market everyday now (not mustachian) because I'm expecting the bottom to fall out and hence why I still keep cash on hand.  This insanity very much reminds me of the dot com bust (I recently turned 40 and began investing then), but I'm afraid at this moment of changing anything.  If you would have told me that I could earn the same amount of money in 2020 that took me the last 5 years to accumulate during a global pandemic I would have laughed at you!  I'm planning to rotate back into my bland index funds over the next few weeks, but it is obviously tough to do so when I'm still earning insane returns. 

My personal opinion is that (not that anyone asked), clean energy and tech is overvalued.  I'm just not sure when the party will end!
     

TOP IS IN!!!!1!!!

FTFY.

-W

habanero

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #739 on: November 25, 2020, 12:53:18 AM »
This insanity very much reminds me of the dot com bust (I recently turned 40 and began investing then), but I'm afraid at this moment of changing anything. 

It's actually pretty different... from 2015 to 2020 Nasdaq composite is up ~140%. For 1995-2000 it rose 456%. Also if you look at the four biggest names at that time (Intel, Cisco, Oracle and Microsoft) they were up between 1000% (Intel) and 3900% (Cisco) in the 1995-2000 period.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 12:55:58 AM by habanero »

jsloan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #740 on: November 25, 2020, 05:48:14 AM »
Quote
It's actually pretty different... from 2015 to 2020 Nasdaq composite is up ~140%. For 1995-2000 it rose 456%. Also if you look at the four biggest names at that time (Intel, Cisco, Oracle and Microsoft) they were up between 1000% (Intel) and 3900% (Cisco) in the 1995-2000 period.

I agree, but it does have the same feel for a segment of the market.  140% is still killing it from a historical/index perspective.  Nasdaq PE was 107 at the height of the bubble back in 2000 and we are looking at 23 today.    We have growth darlings like TSLA, ZM and NIO which are showing similar growth rates to the big boys back in 2015-2000.  Maybe we are just getting started?

Edit:  There are some indicators that tell us we are in the same territory (or higher) as the internet bubble: https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/.  Now maybe this will straighten out after COVID is solved next year, but we do have a debt issue we will need to address at some point.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 08:38:49 AM by jsloan »

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #741 on: January 11, 2021, 11:12:39 AM »
Where is the december update to this? I'm too lazy to do it myself, but not too lazy to bump the thread.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #742 on: January 11, 2021, 11:52:38 AM »
Your wish = my command!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 20 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks
On Jan 8, 2021 the closing price was $96.95 meaning he had cost himself $15,509.31 plus $489.55 in dividends after 41 Weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $15,998.857

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $14,583.77
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 12:03:38 PM by v8rx7guy »

Radagast

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #743 on: January 13, 2021, 09:50:15 PM »
I always like the threads with hilarious endings.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #744 on: January 14, 2021, 01:18:34 AM »
I always like the threads with hilarious endings.

He still might come out on top, since the top is in.

Dibbels81

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #745 on: January 14, 2021, 06:28:03 AM »
Wait, Junior resold in March?  Nooooo. I thought he squeaked out a marginal gain. You're killing me, Jr.

nsmall

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #746 on: January 15, 2021, 08:58:15 PM »
I am cheering for you junioroldtimer and I hope you are well.  Looks like the last time you were active was May of 2020. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #747 on: January 17, 2021, 08:37:34 AM »
Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.
Is there any way to get junioroldtimer's explanation for that decision?

I went 100% equities on March 20.  Although corona virus cases were growing exponentially, testing was accelerating even faster.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #748 on: January 17, 2021, 10:17:24 AM »
junioroldtimer's explanation at the time is below.

This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

Afaik, VTSAX hasn't yet been lower than its price on the date of his sale. Not having heard an update, I think the thread assumes he is still waiting for the drop.

@junioroldtimer, did you ever buy back in?

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #749 on: February 06, 2021, 07:47:42 PM »
Tomorrow is the two year anniversary.  Here is the two year update:

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks
On Feb 5, 2020 the closing price was $99.32 meaning he had cost himself $16,621.81 plus $489.55 in dividends after 45 weeks.

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $17,111.36

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $15,696.28
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 05:24:11 PM by v8rx7guy »