Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 97659 times)

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #550 on: March 10, 2020, 06:42:37 AM »
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report:

On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).


Was coming over to update this morning and it was already done, thanks!

At this point OP is only out dividends, yesterday would not have been a bad time to jump back in. Alas, we will never know what Jr. OT is up to these days since he's remained silent.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #551 on: March 10, 2020, 06:47:16 AM »
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report:

On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).


Was coming over to update this morning and it was already done, thanks!

At this point OP is only out dividends, yesterday would not have been a bad time to jump back in. Alas, we will never know what Jr. OT is up to these days since he's remained silent.

Could be up slightly if OP went into a high yield savings account though?

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #552 on: March 10, 2020, 07:27:19 AM »
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #553 on: March 10, 2020, 08:56:07 AM »
At the time OP posted, (s)he could have gotten around 2.5% in a CD, probably. But there's really no point speculating - unless they tell us, we'll never know what happened to the money.

OP's back in the red (only by a bit!) as of this morning.

-W

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #554 on: March 10, 2020, 10:22:07 AM »
At the time OP posted, (s)he could have gotten around 2.5% in a CD, probably. But there's really no point speculating - unless they tell us, we'll never know what happened to the money.

OP's back in the red (only by a bit!) as of this morning.

-W

Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.  Even supposing that one could get better results via market timing - the time/effort/stress generated as a result is just not freaking worth it.

It's funny though - I've been doing this long enough now to see how emotionally people behave when there's a dip.  Even people on this board, who should know better. 

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #555 on: March 10, 2020, 11:25:50 AM »
It's funny, I never look at the value of my own investments, I just plow money in there when I have it and otherwise ignore it.

But I check this thread every time it updates!

I figure I'm getting all the fun of market timing without the stress/actual losing of money.

-W

Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #556 on: March 10, 2020, 02:12:28 PM »
Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.  Even supposing that one could get better results via market timing - the time/effort/stress generated as a result is just not freaking worth it.

It's funny though - I've been doing this long enough now to see how emotionally people behave when there's a dip.  Even people on this board, who should know better.
I think one should just treat it like selling short. On the date you get out, pick a target number for when you'd buy back in and pick a number for when you'd cut your losses (lost opportunity profits). Stick to the plan, and it doesn't have to be an emotional roller coaster. If it's going to be one, I'd question why you'd try in the first place. Well, let me say that I'd question why you'd try in the first place regardless, but if you're bold/crazy enough to go down that route, I'd recommend doing so according to a plan.

And we wouldn't have these jumps and dips if people didn't behave so emotionally in response to good/bad news. It's just how people are, in spite of evidence that staying the course has been tested time and again and continually prevails. "This is just different" will always prevail in the minds of many.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #557 on: March 10, 2020, 02:16:33 PM »
Probably bought back in at the top.  Which, BTW, is in

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #558 on: March 11, 2020, 03:39:11 PM »
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.
The amount of money in question would have been reasonable to use jumping through the hoops of bank account signup bonuses. Of course those don't scale, but it is certainly plausible that someone could average at least 2% for a year on a few tens of thousands of dollars.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #559 on: March 11, 2020, 07:34:35 PM »
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.

i use heritage checking, pays 3%

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #560 on: March 11, 2020, 08:22:18 PM »
Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.
...
As someone doing this right now, this is hilarious and spot on.  It's like coming out of retirement to watch news and markets too often.

In my opinion, the best market timer of all time (now a controversial political figure) is George Soros, who gained fame for breaking the bank of England.  But his approach of doing experiments in the markets, of "reflexivity" is hard to understand, in my view.  But I would point out he wasn't aiming for a certain level, he was expecting certain events.  Beyond the billion dollar bet against England, he also ran the Quantum Fund which beat the market for decades.  But the main lesson I take away is that I can't do what he did.  Day in, day out calculating experiments and watching to see how they play out in markets... it definitely sounds like a full time job.

Joe Schmo

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #561 on: March 12, 2020, 09:09:08 AM »
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years


Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #562 on: March 12, 2020, 09:38:57 AM »
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise? 

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #563 on: March 12, 2020, 10:18:54 AM »
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?

Well itís looking like more than short term volatility and an extended drawdown is what kills retirements.  Anyone who retired last year is probably swearing it even if thereís still a good chance of ultimate success

arebelspy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #564 on: March 12, 2020, 10:25:31 AM »
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?

Well itís looking like more than short term volatility and an extended drawdown is what kills retirements.  Anyone who retired last year is probably swearing it even if thereís still a good chance of ultimate success

I think you meant sweating it, but there's probably some swearing going on too.
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dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #565 on: March 12, 2020, 10:29:33 AM »
Yeah mostly on mobile so guaranteed one autocorrect error per porst.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #566 on: March 12, 2020, 10:30:34 AM »
Maybe off topic for this thread but I'm going to spill it out anyway as its on my mind.

I think a lot of us in this community are either 1) are too young to have experienced the the great recession pains, or 2) near ~40ish and maybe didn't have much at stake back then.  I fall into the latter camp.

Unfortunately, figuring out what you're comfortable with in terms of asset allocation might require feeling the pain of a downturn.  Sure, we can think about what we're comfortable with on an intellectual level, but I think real world experience is what really solidifies an understanding.  Now is probably the best time to truly evaluate what asset allocation you think is good for you in the long term.  My own allocation is ~ 70/30, and fortunately I think it's about in line with what I'm comfortable with -- maybe some minor calibration.  That said, as my portfolio increases, I will very likely tweak that down to something like 50/50 and will absolutely want to diversify into rental properties.  This particular downturn has me really thinking about how much it would be nice to have additional income streams like rental properties.  Additionally, I'm really thankful that I've set aside a large emergency fund that is not exposed to equities.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:33:37 AM by HBFIRE »

MoMoneyFewerProblems

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #567 on: March 12, 2020, 11:00:24 AM »
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?
I'd like to echo this, especially in this case. It isn't as if the selloff is the result of a weak economy. Rather, it is a combination of intentional manipulation of oil prices and a temporary health scare which will pass.

arebelspy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #568 on: March 12, 2020, 11:23:41 AM »
Regardless of what you think of COVID-19, I think the ripples from the economy slowdown leading to layoffs will be real.

Restaurants have already closed both temporarily and permanently here in Seattle.
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secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #569 on: March 12, 2020, 11:49:05 AM »
Yeah mostly on mobile so guaranteed one autocorrect error per porst.

I see what you did there.

Boofinator

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #570 on: March 12, 2020, 12:19:21 PM »
My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.

My only real wish is that the fundamentals of the economy are sound and that the current disturbances (oil and coronavirus) flash quickly and without much devastation (though perhaps the oil fight can be a good thing, if it helps wean us off oil). A falling tide drops all boats....

Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #571 on: March 12, 2020, 02:27:01 PM »
Jr. Old Timer!! I'm still impressed, even if she/he checked out permanently, or got back in on VTSAX on Feb. 1st. OK, not really.

If this forum is the only way some of you have heard there's a drop, pick up a newspaper a bit more frequently. But, stay away from cable news.

Whether this is a short-term drop or the start of something bigger, it's impossible to say with a high degree of certainty. There are indicators to make the argument on both sides. The scene in Seattle may be a harbinger for other coastal cities, perhaps other cities generally.

I think we all agree that it makes no sense to panic. If you have a plan, stick to the plan. If you don't have a plan, panic.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #572 on: March 12, 2020, 02:35:30 PM »
The thing that impresses me most about jroldtimer, is that he hasn't logged in to rub it in our faces.  Dude checked out sometime mid last year. 

Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #573 on: March 12, 2020, 04:18:39 PM »
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report for Thursday, 3/12:

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33
On Feb 28, 2020 the closing price was $73.13, meaning that he had cost himself $4,946.94 after fifty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $6,229.52.
On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).
On March 12, 2020, the closing price was $60.69, meaning he saved himself $4,904.97 after 57 weeks and after factoring in missed dividends.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #574 on: March 12, 2020, 04:19:58 PM »
I wonder when he'll buy in now that he's saved himself thousands of dollars.

jps

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #575 on: March 12, 2020, 05:24:15 PM »
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #576 on: March 12, 2020, 05:25:03 PM »
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.

I know I did during the financial crisis. That's why I don't try to time the markets anymore.

bacchi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #577 on: March 12, 2020, 05:25:41 PM »
He was ahead of his time.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #578 on: March 12, 2020, 06:49:26 PM »
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.

I like to think he went all in on March 9

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #579 on: March 13, 2020, 05:41:25 PM »
I think a lot of us in this community are either 1) are too young to have experienced the the great recession pains, or 2) near ~40ish and maybe didn't have much at stake back then.  I fall into the latter camp.
I'm more in the latter camp as well. Our first investments were in March 2008. We were pretty nervous about being new to investing and very conservative in our allocation (DW wanted 100% bonds, I started with about 1/3 stocks 2/3 bonds), so we didn't experience that much of a dip with the great recession. We did have the stress of insufficient income for a while due to difficulty finding jobs. We also didn't get more confident in long term prospects (or think all that much about our how long our timeline was) until we missed out on a lot of the recovery as well. I'm looking forward to not missing out on the recovery from this downturn. Just bumped our savings level up this year (now about 1/3 of income). At the beginning of this year I though that by the end of the year 25-30% of our total investment portfolio would be due to this year's contributions, but now I'm hoping it will be more.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #580 on: March 15, 2020, 03:01:02 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.

Joe Schmo

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #581 on: March 15, 2020, 03:07:59 PM »
I agree with not wanting to take the heat. Good on you for putting it out there!!

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #582 on: March 15, 2020, 03:08:51 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.

Nice work! I think the next 12 months are gonna be interesting either way.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #583 on: March 15, 2020, 06:47:53 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.

@junioroldtimer, you're back! Gutsiest update of the day. 

And congrats on coming out ahead. I totally respect that you called your shot publicly, then came back with the resolution.

frugalnacho

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #584 on: March 15, 2020, 06:56:45 PM »
I don't know if everyone is necessarily rooting against you specifically, or just viewed it as a cautionary tale to others.  Most here believe you can't time the market. I'm glad it worked out for you, but the vast majority of people that try to time the market get burned.  Kudos on getting it right though.

norajean

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #585 on: March 15, 2020, 09:38:40 PM »
The worst thing you can do is get lucky and imagine you know what you are doing. This often leads to eventual ruin.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #586 on: March 15, 2020, 09:51:26 PM »
I wasn't rooting against you at all - I like buying stocks at a discount!

Kudos for coming back. And for buying back in at a time when many people wouldn't have the guts.

If I were you I'd probably not look to get bailed out again by a pandemic, though, and stick with staying invested going forward.

-W

Radagast

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #587 on: March 15, 2020, 10:53:08 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #588 on: March 15, 2020, 10:57:02 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

When the "lucky" scenario is break-even....

And were I a market timer, I probably would not buy back in at this point.  I'd probably wait a month or two more. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #589 on: March 16, 2020, 06:27:53 AM »
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

@junioroldtimer is polite. No "told-ya-so's", and nary an accusation of "stupid". Problem is, I can't tell - is the bitch-slap in?


YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #590 on: March 16, 2020, 07:11:40 AM »
Thanks for coming back and providing an update junioroldtimer. Glad you got back in at a cheaper price.

Blueberries

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #591 on: March 16, 2020, 07:18:30 AM »
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

@junioroldtimer is polite. No "told-ya-so's", and nary an accusation of "stupid". Problem is, I can't tell - is the bitch-slap in?



No shit, especially after some of the pompous responses in this thread. 

What a delicious read.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #592 on: March 16, 2020, 12:50:35 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

To me "lucky" and "correct" are not mutually exclusive. I think you and I would agree that we would not call the timing of the trades optimal. Further, I'd consider 10% off a significant savings but my transaction wasn't processed fast enough (maybe because I was transferring money from Ally).

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #593 on: March 16, 2020, 01:24:45 PM »
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

To me "lucky" and "correct" are not mutually exclusive. I think you and I would agree that we would not call the timing of the trades optimal. Further, I'd consider 10% off a significant savings but my transaction wasn't processed fast enough (maybe because I was transferring money from Ally).

Vanguard let me buy shares while funds were in transit.  Not sure if I have a different kind of account than you. 

Either way, there have been a number of brokerage outages.  Should be a reminder to everyone that if your plan calls for a level of investment services that you are used to in non-crisis situations to continue through crises, you should rethink your plan.  A lot of options traders got burned when Robinhood went down and couldn't close out their trades.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #594 on: March 17, 2020, 12:47:25 PM »
So you watched the Russia collusion report be a nothing burger and impeachment go nowhere and then watched the massive run up over the winter into mid February and didn't buy back in.  The 20% run up was not enough to bring you back in over that year and you had no fear you were missing out all that time, watching some days go by with 600 point gains. 

Lucky the virus happened relatively soon, otherwise years might have slipped by without a similar opportunity.

Impressive crystal ball, that. 

   

markbike528CBX

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #595 on: March 17, 2020, 01:23:24 PM »
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #596 on: March 17, 2020, 01:52:51 PM »
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.

Sure he came back when he was ďvindicatedĒ.  Where was he the rest of the time?  What if COVID didnít happen and things went flat or up... would he have come back to update?

frugalnacho

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #597 on: March 17, 2020, 02:00:07 PM »
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.

Sure he came back when he was ďvindicatedĒ.  Where was he the rest of the time?  What if COVID didnít happen and things went flat or up... would he have come back to update?

He would have been added to the growing list of market timers with failed predictions.  This forum is littered with them.

Melt it down and add it to the others.


Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #598 on: March 18, 2020, 12:45:51 AM »
So you watched the Russia collusion report be a nothing burger and impeachment go nowhere and then watched the massive run up over the winter into mid February and didn't buy back in.  The 20% run up was not enough to bring you back in over that year and you had no fear you were missing out all that time, watching some days go by with 600 point gains. 

Lucky the virus happened relatively soon, otherwise years might have slipped by without a similar opportunity.

Impressive crystal ball, that.   
I'll give you that the "impeachment" went nowhere, though that's true in all cases unless the impeached president is convicted by the Senate. But Manafort, Stone, Cohen (to name a few) were all convicted. I'd hardly say the Russian investigation was a nothing burger.

In any event, plaudits to JrOT for coming back. Except for some very, very few savvy investors, market timing is about getting lucky. He caught it, ever so slightly.

Jamese20

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #599 on: March 18, 2020, 12:54:14 AM »
I think the only time you can time it as such is in times like now when market is getting a hammering and you somehow have a ton of cash laying around

I don't see how you predict selling before something like this happens unless it's blind luck but you have more chance sitting on the sidelines for years losing out on gains and dividends.

If you have followed fire advice then I don't see how anyone can take huge advantage of the drops in a big way other than their usual monthly investment