Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 97664 times)

fattest_foot

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #450 on: January 20, 2020, 12:45:10 PM »
It wasn’t the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

I dunno, seems like a lot of people have already forgotten the 20% drop from October through December of 2018. Top Is In thread didn't die because of it.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #451 on: January 21, 2020, 08:02:19 AM »
It wasn’t the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.

Please do enlighten me.

Who do you think I am, Thorstache?

But if I was going to make an attempt at summing it up, I'd say the point is to mock those who think they can predict the direction of the market as a whole, particularly when they use vocabulary like this:

"Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check."

Whether their prediction is up/down/sideways is beside the point.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #452 on: January 21, 2020, 12:13:04 PM »
The “bottom is in” game is only slightly less fun than the “top is in” game.

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #453 on: January 21, 2020, 12:30:21 PM »
The “bottom is in” game is only slightly less fun than the “top is in” game.

Who doesn't like a nice bottom?

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #454 on: January 21, 2020, 12:32:09 PM »
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasn’t been on the board since “ July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PM” so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #455 on: January 21, 2020, 12:53:15 PM »
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasn’t been on the board since “ July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PM” so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?

It's important that this type of example doesn't fade into the background, but can be brought forward every time a new member talks about doing the same (which is often).

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #456 on: January 21, 2020, 12:54:11 PM »
That will happen when new "time the market" themed threads stop being created by people with 22 posts. 

MMM is a tough schoolmaster but maybe others will see and learn along by reading these aging threads. 

Since Junior has departed he is suffering no ego bruises but there are many who may be getting something from it.  It is not personal and serves as a billboard of warnings to others, kept active. 

@GuitarStv, jinx

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #457 on: January 21, 2020, 01:09:48 PM »
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasn’t been on the board since “ July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PM” so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?

I’m pretty sure that showing the brutal truth of market timing is a topic that helps people learn and grow.  It has for me anyway.  I’ve gotten more confidence in my investment strategy through the ups and downs from reading through these threads. 

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #458 on: January 21, 2020, 01:12:34 PM »
Agree with GuitarStv and MissNancyPryor.

I don't think any of us are sitting here laughing at OP. I personally hope that a couple months into his adventure into timing the market he bit the bullet and got back in anyway so he hasn't lost out on all the gains. He's departed from the forums so we won't know but instead this thread can be used as a learning tool for everyone who comes here asking if it's a good time to get out of the market or wait to invest. We can say "Time in the market is always better than timing the market" but having a real-life example can be helpful.

It's also pretty rare to have a data point on how much somebody sold and when, I personally think it'll be interesting whenever the next market correction happens to see if the market drops enough to combat the market gains and dividends from when OP sold. Just a real-life example to illustrate market timing with actual numbers versus telling people it's never a good idea to time the market which doesn't necessarily give the same lesson. Especially when the typical person only posts market timing success stories, it's important to remember the losses.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #459 on: January 21, 2020, 02:32:52 PM »
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #460 on: January 21, 2020, 02:49:19 PM »
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.     

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #461 on: January 21, 2020, 02:53:08 PM »
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

It's funny - the people that take the long, boring sure thing approach to investing always end up so much better off in the long run than the people that try to jump start their gains by 'gaming the system' or being a 'super smart active investor'. 

I mean, I guess it's statistically possible to time/beat the market.  But the odds are about the same as being struck by lightning.  While being eaten by sharks.

UnleashHell

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #462 on: January 21, 2020, 02:55:32 PM »
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?

Psychstache

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #463 on: January 21, 2020, 02:57:34 PM »
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

It's funny - the people that take the long, boring sure thing approach to investing always end up so much better off in the long run than the people that try to jump start their gains by 'gaming the system' or being a 'super smart active investor'. 

I mean, I guess it's statistically possible to time/beat the market.  But the odds are about the same as being struck by lightning.  While being eaten by sharks.

I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #464 on: January 21, 2020, 03:00:22 PM »
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?

That was my obvious attempt to be overly niiiice so we can't be accused of being rude and having that thread locked by mods.  No fun if the babysitters take the ball away. 

Here, take a sip. 

UnleashHell

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #465 on: January 21, 2020, 03:03:23 PM »
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?

That was my obvious attempt to be overly niiiice so we can't be accused of being rude and having that thread locked by mods.  No fun if the babysitters take the ball away. 

Here, take a sip.

I know, I know. I've been poking the bear in that thread but I have to stop before I get brutally honest....


I'll sit on the sidelines and drink.... cheers.

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #466 on: January 23, 2020, 08:50:37 AM »
I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.
The argument that convinced me that it wasn't worth trying was that there are plenty of people in control of billions of dollars worth of investments who work full time trying to find a way to beat the market and they are not successful more than half the time.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #467 on: January 23, 2020, 09:41:47 AM »
I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.
The argument that convinced me that it wasn't worth trying was that there are plenty of people in control of billions of dollars worth of investments who work full time trying to find a way to beat the market and they are not successful more than half the time.

Yep, me too.  It reminds me of Vegas.  Plenty of people go to Vegas with an grand idea/scheme that's going to let them 'beat the odds' and clean up over all the other suckers. 

What they don't realize is that there are people FAR more sophisticated and dedicated to beating the system already out there and THOSE people aren't doing better than average, because the system has already accounted for them. 

In other words, stock picking is exactly the same - it's gambling.  You might win sometimes, but that's simply luck.  Most of the time you're going to lose, at least a little.  And sometimes you'll lose a lot. 

Faaaarrrrr better to just dump your money into an index fund & let it grow at it's boring, safe 9% rate over the long term.  People that try to game the system for higher returns are generally the real suckers.

EliteZags

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ender

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FIRE 20/20

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mies

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #472 on: January 29, 2020, 04:26:44 AM »
This thread is famous now!

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/ev7ij1/when_you_try_to_time_the_market_a_true_story/

It looks like there are a lot of “yeah, but...” replies in the reddit thread. I remember why I don’t follow that sub anymore.

solon

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #473 on: January 29, 2020, 10:34:11 AM »
This thread is famous now!

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/ev7ij1/when_you_try_to_time_the_market_a_true_story/

Which one of us is filmhamster? And is filming hamsters something to be proud of?


v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #475 on: February 07, 2020, 03:51:27 PM »
Welp, today is the one year anniversary of junioroldtimer's attempt at market timing.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th, 2019 at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 7, 2020 the closing price was $82.11, meaning that he had cost himself $12,965.62 after one year, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,248.20

I'll be back in a year for our next update.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 02:47:25 PM by v8rx7guy »

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #476 on: February 07, 2020, 04:14:01 PM »
At some point, OP will become senioroldtimer.

Valhalla

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #477 on: February 11, 2020, 03:11:23 AM »
If there's ANY proof that you can't time the market, the last few weeks / months have certainly been shockingly illuminating.

The stock market barely made a bump in regards to the US / Iranian hostilities.  Now the stock market seems to be barely nudging in reaction to coronavirus, which the media has hyped to be the zombie apocalypse overwhelming the world.

It seems investors / people are smarter than ever, and you can't really outsmart / outguess them even with overwhelming conviction that the market is going to crash due to these crazy events.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #478 on: February 11, 2020, 06:08:26 AM »
Well the media had a lot more to gain by sensationalizing everything than reporting actual, factual truths.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #479 on: February 11, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
If there's ANY proof that you can't time the market, the last few weeks / months have certainly been shockingly illuminating.

The stock market barely made a bump in regards to the US / Iranian hostilities.  Now the stock market seems to be barely nudging in reaction to coronavirus, which the media has hyped to be the zombie apocalypse overwhelming the world.

It seems investors / people are smarter than ever, and you can't really outsmart / outguess them even with overwhelming conviction that the market is going to crash due to these crazy events.

Yes, the stock market seems to be generally immune to world events, and that's been true historically as well:


DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #480 on: February 11, 2020, 11:26:04 AM »
I learned from that graph that the JFK assassination was good for the market, and the RFK assassination was bad for the market.

appleshampooid

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #481 on: February 11, 2020, 12:46:31 PM »
I learned from that graph that the JFK assassination was good for the market, and the RFK assassination was bad for the market.
I learned that the Vietnam war happened in 1973.

TheHardenedInvestor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #482 on: February 11, 2020, 02:13:33 PM »
Welp, today is the one year anniversary of junioroldtimer's attempt at market timing.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th, 2019 at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Jan 7, 2020 the closing price was $82.11, meaning that he had cost himself $12,965.62 after one year, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,248.20

I'll be back in a year for our next update.

+1 for recap.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #483 on: February 12, 2020, 02:22:55 AM »
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #484 on: February 12, 2020, 03:06:47 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter

mies

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #485 on: February 12, 2020, 03:40:00 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter

I’m sure if you ask nicely, he’ll add your email address to the conspiracy chain emails he forwards everyone.

jeroly

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #486 on: February 12, 2020, 04:27:26 AM »
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.
+1 to all of this...as you are probably aware, reality has a well-known liberal bias.

UnleashHell

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #487 on: February 12, 2020, 07:12:49 AM »
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

all those business are all in favour of the democrats. whose fiscal policies who probably hurt them.

ok them.


its not you - its all the others.


Lucky we have Murdoch to show us the light.

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #488 on: February 12, 2020, 09:41:10 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter

He forgot to blame Obama.  And I didn't hear a word about Benghazi.  As far as tin-foil hat rants go, this is like a 5/10 at best . . . doesn't feel like his heart is really in it.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #489 on: February 12, 2020, 02:43:43 PM »
He's spot on though.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #490 on: February 12, 2020, 09:49:32 PM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #491 on: February 13, 2020, 08:23:32 AM »
There’s also a big difference between quality of life and corporate profitability.

A government with our best interests at heart might tax the shite out of cigarettes, alcohol, smartphones, gasoline, fast food, and sugar, and then raise the maximum Roth IRA contribution to $25k/year. This would direct some marginal consumption out of destructive products and towards retirement savings, but it would also reduce corporate profits for everyone from farmers to shippers to retailers, and decrease economic growth. Life would get better, but stocks would go down.

Likewise, if we told our political leaders that ALL we want is a strong economy with fat corporate profits, the logical way to achieve that goal might be to wage a (non-nuclear) war somewhere, cut off all public assistance so that people must work or starve, eliminate weekends, reduce wages, rollback enviro rules, allow monopolies and duopolies to exist and extract maximum profits, and lower corporate taxes to the point we have trillion dollar govt deficits which appear on corporate income statements as trillion dollar profits. The stock market might go up, but we would spend most of our daylight hours working in a daily struggle to pay for things.

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #492 on: February 13, 2020, 08:27:36 AM »
Well this educational thread has now jumped the shark by diving into politics.

Scandium

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #493 on: February 13, 2020, 08:38:16 AM »
wage a (non-nuclear) war somewhere, cut off all public assistance so that people must work or starve, eliminate weekends, reduce wages, rollback enviro rules, allow monopolies and duopolies to exist and extract maximum profits, and lower corporate taxes to the point we have trillion dollar govt deficits which appear on corporate income statements as trillion dollar profits. The stock market might go up, but we would spend most of our daylight hours working in a daily struggle to pay for things.

Low effort posting just stealing the Republican party platform like that.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #494 on: February 13, 2020, 08:58:50 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

Context matters.  Coming out of a recession, coming out of a bull market, extending an expansion beyond what should happen, etc.  The market has traditionally reacted favorably to pro business policies in relation to the current situation of the time.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 09:03:30 AM by HBFIRE »

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #495 on: February 13, 2020, 11:57:38 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

Context matters.  Coming out of a recession, coming out of a bull market, extending an expansion beyond what should happen, etc.  The market has traditionally reacted favorably to pro business policies in relation to the current situation of the time.

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #496 on: February 13, 2020, 12:02:09 PM »

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.

I don't think I did that here, I'm merely pointing out that context matters, which should be obvious.  You're making a strawman logical fallacy.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 12:06:27 PM by HBFIRE »

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #497 on: February 13, 2020, 01:01:21 PM »

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.

I don't think I did that here, I'm merely pointing out that context matters, which should be obvious.  You're making a strawman logical fallacy.

It's not directed specifically at you.  Just an observation of behavior I've seen in people that are data/facts driven.  Which it's GOOD to be data/facts driven, but even then it doesn't mean we don't have blind spots.  This is one pattern I've seen in this particular population.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #498 on: February 13, 2020, 05:03:20 PM »
wtf happened to this thread

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #499 on: February 13, 2020, 06:09:07 PM »
wtf happened to this thread

Make this thread great again!