Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 97518 times)

bacchi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #400 on: November 06, 2019, 12:15:15 PM »
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.

Warren/Sanders won't be able to implement any new taxes or M4A plan without Congress' help. That's unlikely to happen.

If Trump loses, the trade wars can immediately disappear. The pressure on the Fed also goes away (presumably).

But, yeah, there will be some fear about new taxes if Warren takes office. It'll go away pretty quickly if/when the Senate Republican majority refuses to budge.

If that happens, the top will truly be in.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #401 on: November 06, 2019, 05:18:21 PM »
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.

Breaking apart monopolies isnít good for the monopolies, but itís good for their competitors and the overall economy

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #402 on: November 08, 2019, 02:05:35 PM »
Indeed I wonder how our country will fare with that Democratic Socialist Mike Pence as our President. Giving him almost a year to wreck our economy...there is practically no bottom.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #403 on: November 15, 2019, 04:01:58 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06

TheHardenedInvestor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #404 on: November 15, 2019, 04:03:42 PM »
+1 recap

Malcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #405 on: November 15, 2019, 05:39:21 PM »
Every time I see an update in this thread, I just keep coming back to the sad fact that there was never some big money making play here in the first place. There was no huge jack pot even if the plan had worked out.

I mean, if OP had simply left their money in the market, it would have been profitable long term regardless of whatever happens, so it's not like they were hedging against some major loss.

Meanwhile, had they been able to accurately predict a profound drop, AND if they had managed to time their exit and re-entry with absolutely perfect market timing precision, the grand outcome of such a spectacular once in a lifetime feat would be...what?? A five figure increase in net worth?

As in, the kind of fluctuations that a mature, full FI stache go through on a regular basis? ie, no big deal at the end of the day after pulling off an incredibly improbable move with enormous chance of failure?

The maximum possible payoff is just so... disappointing.
It's like making a half court shot and getting rewarded with a gift certificate to Denny's.

Stamag

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #406 on: December 03, 2019, 05:22:48 PM »
So you would have rather seen OP short the market instead of just liquidating to cash?  I agree that would be pretty exciting. 

I think the payoff would be worth it though, if the market crashes 25% and you buy back in then you would be cutting your time to retirement down by quite a bit

Villanelle

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #407 on: December 03, 2019, 06:07:56 PM »
So you would have rather seen OP short the market instead of just liquidating to cash?  I agree that would be pretty exciting. 

I think the payoff would be worth it though, if the market crashes 25% and you buy back in then you would be cutting your time to retirement down by quite a bit

Sure.  *If* you sell right before that 25% drop, and then buy back in magically at the very bottom. That is exceptionally unlikely, which I believe was the point.  It's a huge gamble--very tiny odds of getting it right--and yet the pay off isn't especially great.  Lots of risk, relatively little reward even if it comes out your way. 

I suspect she would have rather--to the extent that she has preferences about a stranger's finances--see him leave his money alone.  Why would the only choices be liquidate or short? 

MoneyQuirk

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #408 on: December 03, 2019, 08:35:44 PM »
I think this post is an excellent summary of why it's a bad idea to be in cash.

Cash is betting against the market. The market overall goes up. Have enough cash for any concerns you need, and otherwise just relax and let the money work $ :).

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #409 on: December 05, 2019, 09:11:39 AM »
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?


YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #410 on: December 05, 2019, 11:34:39 AM »
I think an interesting take-away is that now the market would have to drop almost 13% just for the OP to break-even on this decision. So even when the market does eventually drop does the OP re-enter if there's a 10% drop, knowing they lost a bit of money but happy to enter at a lower price? Does the OP wait for a 20-30% drop but that could take years and perhaps the gains in the meantime offset the potential gain from timing the market. It's obvious now that the OP did not time the peak correctly (which is very difficult to do) so now what?

Personally, I'd re-enter the market ASAP and consider it a lesson learned but I could see why it would be tempting to double-down on your stance and try to wait for a drop.

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #411 on: December 05, 2019, 11:42:58 AM »
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?

An even bigger bet against the market?

It's betting the money line on a major underdog, as opposed to just betting that they will beat the spread.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #412 on: December 05, 2019, 07:55:23 PM »
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?

A long put is a bet against the market. And cash is not a bet against the market; it's enough spending money to get through probabilistically likely negative fluctuations in the market price, at a confidence level that balances the risk of lost gains with the risk of being forced to sell low. The decision to go to cash is more complicated than the decision to buy a put.

Too bad the OP didn't risk a tiny fraction of their cash to buy a call option or the market wouldn't have run off without them.


Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #413 on: December 05, 2019, 09:43:59 PM »
I think an interesting take-away is that now the market would have to drop almost 13% just for the OP to break-even on this decision. So even when the market does eventually drop does the OP re-enter if there's a 10% drop, knowing they lost a bit of money but happy to enter at a lower price? Does the OP wait for a 20-30% drop but that could take years and perhaps the gains in the meantime offset the potential gain from timing the market. It's obvious now that the OP did not time the peak correctly (which is very difficult to do) so now what?

Personally, I'd re-enter the market ASAP and consider it a lesson learned but I could see why it would be tempting to double-down on your stance and try to wait for a drop.

Some people hate to be wrong so much, they will refuse to admit a mistake, even when it costs them money.  Hell, especially when it costs them money!  Not saying that's true of the OP, but it is true of many.  Sometimes me included, haha.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #414 on: December 06, 2019, 02:49:18 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05

MoneyQuirk

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #415 on: December 10, 2019, 01:36:38 AM »
OP "I remain confident on long-term prospects of the market".

Well.... ~\(-_-)/~

EliteZags

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #416 on: December 12, 2019, 04:07:49 PM »

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #417 on: December 12, 2019, 05:22:12 PM »
At the one year mark someone needs to do the math showing what it would have been with fully re-invested dividends all along which is the most common scenario during the accumulation phase to FIRE.  I might pencil that out myself from curiosity.

I wish OP would tell us when he bought back in- I can't imagine he is still sitting on the sidelines waiting for Russia to be a thing considering we are in full impeachment mode and the market gives approximately zero fucks. 

I appreciated the honesty to publicly make this play and it would be fine for him to admit he couldn't stand watching the Dow breach 28,000 from the sidelines.  The reasons he gave for expecting a crash obviously will not happen and it is OK to come out and complete the lesson here with the group.     

bisimpson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #418 on: December 13, 2019, 03:08:11 PM »
this woulda been cheaper for OP

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

This just took up the last 15 minutes....fascinating.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #419 on: December 13, 2019, 04:18:17 PM »
this woulda been cheaper for OP

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

This just took up the last 15 minutes....fascinating.

The thing I notice most about games like this is that when I ďwinĒ and beat the market, itís usually for only a few % above the buy and hold return over the 10 year period, pretty low reward for considering when I lose (which is like 3/4 of the time) I usually lose by a lot. 

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #420 on: December 30, 2019, 09:07:20 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92.

If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #421 on: December 30, 2019, 11:46:04 AM »
If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.

Thank you for doing this additional analysis. 



talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #422 on: December 30, 2019, 11:50:45 AM »
What's awkward is that I have a bunch of co-workers coming up to me and basically doing the same thing, i.e. telling me they're taking positions in bonds to whether whatever storm may be coming. I try not to hammer on them about how much they lose, but they also do not exhibit the candor of OP.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #423 on: December 31, 2019, 07:54:01 PM »
What's awkward is that I have a bunch of co-workers coming up to me and basically doing the same thing, i.e. telling me they're taking positions in bonds to whether whatever storm may be coming. I try not to hammer on them about how much they lose, but they also do not exhibit the candor of OP.

Maybe their IPS says to have a large bond position.


lol.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #424 on: January 03, 2020, 11:44:57 AM »
Yesterday was the day of truth...and...it turns out I have more bonds than any of the rest of them (I am the youngest).

Which means they out-returned me for 2019.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #425 on: January 04, 2020, 02:20:01 PM »
@talltexan - well, the rubber meets the road the market drops. After that you can find out whether they still have less bonds!

TheHobbit

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #426 on: January 05, 2020, 03:14:21 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.
...

On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92.

If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.

The actual cost is far far higher, inflation adjusted this cost OP something like 265k (552k not adjusted) over 40 years of future growth or 123k (213k not adjusted) over 30 years.  *poof* gonzo.  If OP is younger than say 40.... the numbers are even more stark....572k adjusted for inflation over 50yrs...  The power of compounding cuts both ways.

The damage one does with money mistakes in their 20s and 30s pail in comparison to the damage you might do in your 50s blowing it on that mid life crisis.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #427 on: January 17, 2020, 03:39:26 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33

JLee

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #428 on: January 17, 2020, 03:49:04 PM »
This was a hell of a year to miss.

jps

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #429 on: January 17, 2020, 03:56:39 PM »
junioroldtimer has missed out $14,105.33, or 23% of the original value! It could have grown by a quarter!

Valhalla

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #430 on: January 17, 2020, 04:55:42 PM »
Yup, it's impossible to time the market.  Just as OP moves back in, there could be a 25% crash, LOL.  Wouldn't that be a hell of a thing?

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #431 on: January 17, 2020, 04:58:42 PM »
Yup, it's impossible to time the market.  Just as OP moves back in, there could be a 25% crash, LOL.  Wouldn't that be a hell of a thing?

Thats exactly the issue, knowing when to get back in is nearly impossible.  Even if you wait for a future large dip, it may not be lower than what the current price is now.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #432 on: January 17, 2020, 08:37:26 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.
...

Thank you for updating this!  One request - could you put the year on this, probably just in the first line?  I don't think it's necessary on each update line, but as we cross the one year mark new people might not be clear on when this started without going back to the beginning of the thread. 

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #433 on: January 17, 2020, 08:44:46 PM »
Well, the OP hasn't been active on here since July 29, 2019.  I don't think we'll get to hear from him.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #434 on: January 17, 2020, 09:47:42 PM »
Well, the OP hasn't been active on here since July 29, 2019.  I don't think we'll get to hear from him.

Not until the next crash at least

frugledoc

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #435 on: January 18, 2020, 12:49:48 AM »
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #436 on: January 18, 2020, 07:05:16 AM »
Maybe he can no longer pay for Internet.  :P

Joe Schmo

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #437 on: January 18, 2020, 09:20:28 AM »
Extra large huevos on that man for putting it out there on the interweb.
Gotta show respect.

Maenad

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #438 on: January 18, 2020, 10:08:53 AM »
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #439 on: January 18, 2020, 10:51:34 AM »
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.

I find that people will laugh for a bit at a mistake but will generally stop laughing once you own up to it and change your behavior.  It's only if someone obstinately refuses to learn that "laughing" turns to "mocking". 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #440 on: January 18, 2020, 11:41:21 AM »
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.

I find that people will laugh for a bit at a mistake but will generally stop laughing once you own up to it and change your behavior.  It's only if someone obstinately refuses to learn that "laughing" turns to "mocking".

This.  *cough* Top is In thread *cough*

I had higher hopes for OP, he stated his reasons, but didnít insist or argue that he couldnít be wrong, and seemed generally open and honest about taking a gamble.  Sucks that the market had to deliver such a blow to the guy over the last year, but thatís why we try not to time the market.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #441 on: January 18, 2020, 01:11:46 PM »
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse. 

EliteZags

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #442 on: January 18, 2020, 02:49:40 PM »
I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.

at what point will you consider it may have blown up in your face?

daverobev

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #443 on: January 19, 2020, 02:35:44 AM »
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #444 on: January 19, 2020, 07:42:33 PM »
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.

daverobev

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #445 on: January 20, 2020, 01:14:01 AM »
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.

Please do enlighten me.

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #446 on: January 20, 2020, 09:26:57 AM »
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market? 

TheAnonOne

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #447 on: January 20, 2020, 10:53:20 AM »
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #448 on: January 20, 2020, 11:17:15 AM »
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?

That's not how I read OP's original post at all, unless there was a follow up at some point clarifying that I forgot about. I didn't assume he took everything out of the market and didn't continue putting anything else in. I assumed he "diversified" the specified portion into cash as an experiment with the assumption it could be put back into the market later for a profit.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #449 on: January 20, 2020, 11:19:22 AM »
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?

That's not how I read OP's original post at all, unless there was a follow up at some point clarifying that I forgot about. I didn't assume he took everything out of the market and didn't continue putting anything else in. I assumed he "diversified" the specified portion into cash as an experiment with the assumption it could be put back into the market later for a profit.

You may be right on this, honestly it has been quite a while since I read the OP.

That being said, IF someone did this, the initial sell is just the start.