Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 97482 times)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #350 on: August 15, 2019, 11:18:18 PM »
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Godwin saw what you did there.

So this is how to kill antithetical / heretical threads?

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #351 on: August 16, 2019, 12:39:19 AM »
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

We must take a stand now and speak up for the Top!

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #352 on: August 16, 2019, 08:49:56 AM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 02:07:55 PM by robartsd »

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #353 on: August 16, 2019, 11:37:09 AM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensive. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #354 on: August 16, 2019, 12:15:59 PM »
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Now I realize why my unconscious made me misspell my own screen name (and thus start over). By avoiding Walrus status, I can avoid the invisible hand of Forum Darwin indefinitely!

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #355 on: August 16, 2019, 02:07:16 PM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #356 on: August 16, 2019, 02:29:09 PM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #357 on: August 16, 2019, 03:11:25 PM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

I see what ya did there...

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #358 on: August 16, 2019, 03:56:19 PM »
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned. He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make knowingly violating forum rules. I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

I see what ya did there...

Why does everyone keep seeing what I did?  Stop watching me, people

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #359 on: August 16, 2019, 04:08:49 PM »
Dragons and cars. Some things you just can't unsee.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #360 on: August 17, 2019, 12:23:12 PM »
Dragons and cars. Some things you just can't unsee.

Indeed. That avatar will never look the same now that I know.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #361 on: August 18, 2019, 10:44:24 AM »
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

At what post count do you get walrus status?  I donít want to fall victim to the forum assassins, if I get too close can I delete old posts to keep posting but stay just under the limit?  Is there a way to reverse-post?

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #362 on: August 19, 2019, 07:09:55 AM »
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

At what post count do you get walrus status?  I donít want to fall victim to the forum assassins, if I get too close can I delete old posts to keep posting but stay just under the limit?  Is there a way to reverse-post?

I think 5k, so you're probably safe for a bit.

But you know how these slippery slope things work...

norajean

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #363 on: August 19, 2019, 09:52:07 AM »
Market timing can work really well but many people forget there are two things required. 1) you need to know *which way* the market will go and 2) you need to know *when*.    Anyone can predict the market will rise or crash and be correct, eventually.  But if you get the timing wrong, it can ruin you financially (if you are acting on your predictions). If you missed the best 10 days the market had the last 20 years, you cut your returns in half vs staying invested.  Market timing is playing with FIRE, so to speak.   What is weird to me is that most people read and learn all these lessons from others who have learned them the hard way, but some still want to learn their own lessons.

The good news is the market has gone up, so the OP maybe has learned a hard lesson he can use.  Far worse would have been for the market to fall and the OP to get the false impression she/he was able to predict market behavior and reap rewards. In that case, she/he would made a far larger mistake in the future and eventually been much sorrier that she/he is today.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #364 on: August 19, 2019, 10:07:33 AM »
Market timing can work really well but many people forget there are two things required. 1) you need to know *which way* the market will go and 2) you need to know *when*.   

Not only that, but you need to know "when" twice.  When to sell and when to buy back in.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #365 on: August 19, 2019, 12:35:25 PM »
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #366 on: August 19, 2019, 01:05:43 PM »
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #367 on: August 19, 2019, 01:13:01 PM »
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.

Because itís statistically sub-optimal I also hesitate to recommend this.  Obviously I can push the ultimate choice to the investor but their indecisiveness got us here in the first place.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #368 on: August 19, 2019, 02:27:46 PM »
Either choice is better than letting the money sit idle.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #369 on: August 19, 2019, 03:20:35 PM »
If they're new, maybe the best thing is to just continue praising their saving.

Until they're willing to invest a little per month in stock, of course.


NWOutlier

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #370 on: August 19, 2019, 06:02:36 PM »
this may have already been posted - but, "time in the market is better than timing the market"

From Buffet
Dancing In and Out of Investments

ďSince the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe itís a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of ďexperts,Ē or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.Ē -Warren Buffet in his 2012 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

AdrianC

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #371 on: August 20, 2019, 07:29:43 AM »
And yet...Berkshire is currently sitting on $120B in cash.

Boofinator

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #372 on: August 20, 2019, 03:29:38 PM »
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.

Because itís statistically sub-optimal I also hesitate to recommend this.  Obviously I can push the ultimate choice to the investor but their indecisiveness got us here in the first place.

It depends on the statistic one is using to determine optimality. DCA reduces left-tail risk, especially when combined with putting the money that is sitting on the sidelines into some low-risk interest bearing instrument. So DCA might be an optimal approach for someone nearing retirement (the low human capital type) who needs their money to last.

But, for most people in most times of their lives, DCA is suboptimal from the perspective of maximizing expected returns. Just do it. The equivalent to DCA would be if you could take out a chunk of your investments out of the market without tax consequences and then reinvest slowly over time, would you? Obviously not for I'd guess at least 99% of us.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #373 on: August 27, 2019, 11:57:45 AM »
I always thought DCA was your internal risk-meter telling you that you don't have the guts to be 100% in stocks?

Wanting to keep some out of the market in case it drops? Vanguard Wellington for you!

markbike528CBX

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #374 on: August 27, 2019, 09:26:51 PM »
I always thought DCA was your internal risk-meter telling you that you don't have the guts to be 100% in stocks?

Wanting to keep some out of the market in case it drops? Vanguard Wellington No soup for you!
FTFY

vand

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #375 on: August 28, 2019, 01:18:58 AM »
Another way to look at DCAing is that it is a form of diversification, but instead of across different securities/asset classes it is diversification across time.

Is it optimal? That depends upon your tolerance for risk. I will never criticize someone who using DCAing because I have an appreciation for managing risk. As always your rate of accumulation can be more or less agressive depending on how you see the balance of risk vs reward.

habanero

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #376 on: August 28, 2019, 01:51:14 AM »
And yet...Berkshire is currently sitting on $120B in cash.

One of Buffet's sacred principles is to never, ever have less than 20bn in cash available (another is to have no debt)

But he has repeatedly stated they are currently lacking investment alternatives. He wants to "shoot an elephant" but can't find any reasonably priced. He also once said "It's generally better to do nothing than doing the wrong thing".

ecchastang

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #377 on: August 28, 2019, 06:57:39 AM »

One of Buffet's sacred principles is to never, ever have less than 20bn in cash available (another is to have no debt)

But he has repeatedly stated they are currently lacking investment alternatives. He wants to "shoot an elephant" but can't find any reasonably priced. He also once said "It's generally better to do nothing than doing the wrong thing".
Interesting perspective.

habanero

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #378 on: August 28, 2019, 08:14:49 AM »
The 20bn refers to Berkshire, obviously, not his PA.... They shall never be in a situation where they run out of liquidity and it's considered important for the credibility of the insurance business which is at the very core of the empire.

His case for no debt is that it's the only way it's possible to loose everything. They don't need leverage for anything (some of the subsdiaries, due to the nature of the business - especially in utilities hold sizeable debt, but it's not guaranteed by the mothership).

Here is his famous quote on debt:

We use debt sparingly. Many managers, it should be noted, will disagree with this policy, arguing that significant debt juices the returns for equity owners. And these more venturesome CEOs will be right most of the time.

At rare and unpredictable intervals, however, credit vanishes and debt becomes financially fatal.
A Russian-roulette equation Ė usually win, occasionally die Ė may make financial sense for someone who gets a piece of a companyís upside but does not share in its downside. But that strategy would be madness for Berkshire.

Rational people donít risk what they have and need for what they donít have and donít need.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 09:21:34 AM by habaneroNorway »

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #379 on: August 28, 2019, 09:47:29 AM »
Buffet is a value investor - it means he's very active about picking stocks/companies to invest in. 

His advice to everyone is basically "if you're not as good as me, avoid stock picking, period.  Everyone not at my level should be investing in Index funds". 

And the fact that even Buffet can't find a "value" company to invest in now, means that everyone else sure as hell should NOT be trying to freaking stock pick or do any freaking market timing. 

habanero

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #380 on: August 29, 2019, 12:00:28 PM »
His advice to everyone is basically "if you're not as good as me, avoid stock picking, period.  Everyone not at my level should be investing in Index funds". 

Yes, his instructions to whoever is gonna take care of his wife's wealth when he dies (and probably for everyone else as well) is very simple: 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, 10% in short-term US treasuries.

Another classic, which is on the topic of this thread:

"The Dow started the last century at 66 and ended at 11,400. How could you lose money during a period like that? A lot of people did because they tried to dance in and out."
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 12:02:09 PM by habaneroNorway »

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #381 on: September 04, 2019, 06:25:54 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

solon

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #382 on: September 04, 2019, 03:13:16 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

Thanks for updating. It's fun to follow along.

EvenSteven

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #383 on: September 04, 2019, 03:39:00 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

I don't know why people think timing the market is difficult. You should have bought on March 8th, then sold on July 24th. It took me about 5 seconds of looking at this table to figure it out.

catorbe

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #384 on: September 04, 2019, 03:46:37 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

I don't know why people think timing the market is difficult. You should have bought on March 8th, then sold on July 24th. It took me about 5 seconds of looking at this table to figure it out.

Odd Todd says you should also buy again on August 15th

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #385 on: October 28, 2019, 08:05:03 AM »

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39


Kierun

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #386 on: October 28, 2019, 02:42:08 PM »
Thanks for the update YG!

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #387 on: October 28, 2019, 08:44:50 PM »
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #388 on: October 28, 2019, 09:00:20 PM »
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).

This is assuming that money isn't being invested into anything.....surely it's at least in a high yield savings acc.

YoungGranny

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #389 on: October 29, 2019, 09:04:59 AM »
I know I personally reinvest all my dividends which would make the value of dividends not paid $931.41 if the OP had kept the money invested with the auto-reinvest dividends turned on or $910.72 if they put it in a high yield savings account earning 2%.

I've used this thread a handful of times to warn various friends who were trying to time the market and not a single one of them thought about dividends.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #390 on: October 29, 2019, 01:16:53 PM »
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #391 on: October 29, 2019, 03:16:56 PM »
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).

This is assuming that money isn't being invested into anything.....surely it's at least in a high yield savings acc.

The OP said he was going to cash.  See reply #12 in this thread.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #392 on: October 29, 2019, 05:25:41 PM »
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #393 on: October 29, 2019, 05:35:30 PM »


The OP said he was going to cash.  See reply #12 in this thread.

Well a lot of people use the term "cash" and savings/checking/money market accounts interchangeably.  I'll give the OP the benefit of the doubt there since he's on this forum.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #394 on: October 29, 2019, 05:39:18 PM »
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.

Why would these things be related? Isn't that a primary point of this thread?

Wrenchturner

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #395 on: October 29, 2019, 05:56:31 PM »
Someone should make a thread like this for Trump's inevitable impeachment.


(or not.)


It's funny to look at those numbers and imagine what you'd do.  Would you buy in again at $69?  Sell at $70?  You'd want to stay in up to $74.  Buy in again at $70 and ride the current wave up...  Yeah right.  You're not going to cut through the volatility with your speculative brain.  It reminds me of the MythBusters episode where they walk blindfolded into a field trying to trace a straight line.

This pic was done in a forest but same thing.

bacchi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #396 on: October 29, 2019, 06:43:04 PM »
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.

The "sole Power of Impeachment" lies with the House. That takes a majority vote on the articles of impeachment. Once the articles are approved by the full House, the President is impeached. Being "impeached" does not mean the President is removed from office or even convicted; that's the Senate's job.

There's a 79% chance at predictit that Trump will be impeached. Given the Democratic majority, that seems like a pretty good prediction.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #397 on: November 06, 2019, 07:19:08 AM »
Contrary to OP, my belief is that Trump's removal from office would cause a surge in stock prices. People have been holding back because of the uncertainty of the trade war project.

I'm 20% bonds, and 80% risky assets.

TheHardenedInvestor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #398 on: November 06, 2019, 07:23:43 AM »
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #399 on: November 06, 2019, 07:45:30 AM »
Contrary to OP, my belief is that Trump's removal from office would cause a surge in stock prices. People have been holding back because of the uncertainty of the trade war project.

I'm 20% bonds, and 80% risky assets.

Trump is interesting because while he's very pro-business, he's also not really pro-stability. Both of those outcomes are good for the market. Stability is, in the case Trump is gone, and so is him being pro-business.

But in other words, top is was in