Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 154518 times)

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #750 on: February 06, 2021, 08:05:09 PM »
Don't forget about taxes.

If this were in a taxable account he would probably owe some amount of federal capital gains tax on the 2/7/2019 and 3/27/2020 sales, possibly at short term rates.  Plus probably state income taxes.

He would also owe ordinary income taxes on his Ally savings account interest, again at the federal and state level.

He did avoid income taxes on the dividends he didn't receive. :)

A LTBH person would only owe taxes on the dividends, but probably at the qualified dividend rate, which can be as low as 0% plus state taxes, and at worst is probably 15% plus state taxes.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #751 on: February 08, 2021, 09:17:59 AM »
It's probably unfair for us to speculate about taxes, because OPs tax situation could have changed for reasons unrelated to the project (like getting a much higher-paying job, or getting married to a spouse with a very different tolerance for risk).

bthewalls

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #752 on: February 11, 2021, 04:53:56 PM »
Itís really good to read the maths behind this......very convincing

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #753 on: February 11, 2021, 05:26:02 PM »
Itís really good to read the maths behind this......very convincing

This is my first time using a spreadsheet that I set up for this and I had an issue with the dividends formula.  Should be fixed now.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #754 on: February 12, 2021, 07:51:33 AM »
Ouch.  This really highlights that when market timers ďwinĒ, they actually lose. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #755 on: February 14, 2021, 01:49:38 PM »
Itís really good to read the maths behind this......very convincing

This is my first time using a spreadsheet that I set up for this and I had an issue with the dividends formula.  Should be fixed now.

I personally love this approach to evaluating trades, no need to get into a big theoretical discussion, just look at the numbers.

So, as far as I can tell his initial $60,354 would be $89,323 based on price appreciation alone. How much would it be after dividends are included?

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #756 on: February 16, 2021, 11:27:41 AM »
Man, it's really interesting going back to the early days of this thread and re-reading the stuff about Donald Trump being taken down by the Mueller investigation.

Getting the stock market right is hard. Gaming out the cause and effect in modern American politics has also been difficult. One year ago this week it looked like Sanders was coasting to the Democratic nomination.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #757 on: April 16, 2021, 09:46:47 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks
On Feb 5, 2021 the closing price was $99.32 meaning he had cost himself $16,621.81 plus $489.55 in dividends after 45 weeks
On Apr 14, 2021 the closing price was $105.40 meaning he had cost himself $19,475.82 plus $641.82 in dividends after 55 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $20,117.65

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $18,702.57
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 09:54:36 AM by v8rx7guy »

Dibbels81

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #758 on: August 07, 2021, 07:40:18 AM »
Hey v8rx7guy, how about a 2 1/2 year update?

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #759 on: August 07, 2021, 08:27:02 AM »
VTSAX closed at 111.37 on Friday, so as a rough additional amount it's

(469.41 * (111.37 - 105.40)) = $2,802.38

probably plus another half a percent or so in dividends, so just the #2 part would likely be over $23K.

Dibbels81

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #760 on: August 07, 2021, 09:42:00 AM »
VTSAX closed at 111.37 on Friday, so as a rough additional amount it's

(469.41 * (111.37 - 105.40)) = $2,802.38

probably plus another half a percent or so in dividends, so just the #2 part would likely be over $23K.

Come on, now this is v8rx7g's baby. Doing the math yourself is like taking the carving knife away from Grandpa. Sure, we're all capable of slicing the turkey ourselves, but the satisfaction it brings Grandpa is worth waiting the extra few minutes. 

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #761 on: August 07, 2021, 11:00:53 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks
On Feb 5, 2021 the closing price was $99.32 meaning he had cost himself $16,621.81 plus $489.55 in dividends after 45 weeks
On Apr 14, 2021 the closing price was $105.40 meaning he had cost himself $19,475.82 plus $641.82 in dividends after 55 weeks
On August 6, 2021 the closing price was $111.39 meaning he had cost himself $22,287.59 plus $794.85 in dividends after 70 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $23,082.44

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $21,667.36

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #762 on: August 07, 2021, 11:12:47 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing gain of $12.20 .  he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for that same ~1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of $1,415.08

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.
On Sep 1, 2020 the closing price was $87.08 meaning he had cost himself $10,876.23 plus $159.08 in dividends after 23 weeks
On Nov 19, 2020 the closing price was $89.66 meaning he had cost himself $12,087.31 plus $312.06 in dividends after 34 weeks
On Feb 5, 2021 the closing price was $99.32 meaning he had cost himself $16,621.81 plus $489.55 in dividends after 45 weeks
On Apr 14, 2021 the closing price was $105.40 meaning he had cost himself $19,475.82 plus $641.82 in dividends after 55 weeks
On August 6, 2021 the closing price was $111.39 meaning he had cost himself $22,287.59 plus $794.85 in dividends after 70 weeks

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #2" to be a loss of $23,082.44

This is a potential total endeavor loss (sum of attempts #1 &#2) of $21,667.36

Sounds about right.

;-)

theoverlook

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #763 on: August 10, 2021, 09:40:07 AM »
Meanwhile I did nothing and changed nothing about my strategy between February 2019 and August 2021 and my liquid net worth went up by 95% over that period.

HamsterStache

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #764 on: September 26, 2021, 08:36:55 AM »
Meanwhile I did nothing and changed nothing about my strategy between February 2019 and August 2021 and my liquid net worth went up by 95% over that period.

Between the market and no daycare costs, plus stimulus, the pandemic has been extremely kind to our net worth. I realize we have been extremely fortunate in that respect as we both continued working for most of the time and unemployment covered about 100% of lost income.

friedmmj

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #765 on: November 09, 2021, 09:28:53 AM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #766 on: November 09, 2021, 10:18:58 AM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

Chuck hasn't posted since that day, so I doubt you'll get an answer.

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #767 on: November 09, 2021, 10:36:47 AM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

Chuck hasn't posted since that day, so I doubt you'll get an answer.

Oh man thatís ominous

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #768 on: November 09, 2021, 02:13:15 PM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

Chuck hasn't posted since that day, so I doubt you'll get an answer.

Oh man thatís ominous

I was going to post a joke, but anyone could have suffered a fatality at that point. I hope Chuck's ok, healthwise.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #769 on: November 09, 2021, 02:17:39 PM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

Chuck hasn't posted since that day, so I doubt you'll get an answer.

Oh man thatís ominous

I was going to post a joke, but anyone could have suffered a fatality at that point. I hope Chuck's ok, healthwise.
Maybe someone took a stab at Chuck instead of timing the market? I'll pick up my bad taste award on the way out.

mies

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #770 on: November 09, 2021, 02:50:53 PM »
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

How's that working for you?

Chuck hasn't posted since that day, so I doubt you'll get an answer.

Oh man thatís ominous

I was going to post a joke, but anyone could have suffered a fatality at that point. I hope Chuck's ok, healthwise.
Maybe someone took a stab at Chuck instead of timing the market? I'll pick up my bad taste award on the way out.
He stabbed himself trying to catch that falling knife.

Davnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #771 on: November 09, 2021, 03:14:09 PM »
I liquidated all of my non-tax deferred holdings on March 4th. It was by far one of the best financial decisions of my life.

I'll get back in the day they announce a vaccine. This is going to get much worse.

I doubt this is actually how things played out, but let's run the numbers assuming VTSAX and a "vaccine announced" on December 11, 2020 - the date emergency use authorization was given for the Pfizer vaccine:

VTSAX (close) 3/4/20: $77.25

VTSAX (close) 12/11/20: $92.59 (+19.86%)


maybe we could forgive ~5% based on this ↓ ? Although buying in and out on the way down was pure gambling and had nothing to do with the "secret" strategy...

I've bought back in twice since I sold a little over a week ago. Both on down days. I've sold within 24 hours each time for 2-3% gains. Finding ways to grow my capital even as the market burns down.

This is getting worse before it gets better. Hundreds of thousands are likely already dead, and hundreds of thousands will probably die here in the USA. Be mindful that this will not be a V-Shaped recovery when committing cash to equities long term.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2021, 03:17:10 PM by Davnasty »

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #772 on: November 10, 2021, 06:41:25 AM »
It's not so much a V shaped recovery though, Chuck was right.

 It's more like the March 2020 top is base camp and here in Nov 2021 we are so high in the mountains that clouds are all around us.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #773 on: November 10, 2021, 08:32:07 AM »
Both Chuck and junioroldtimer have created an excellent lesson with this thread.  Too bad they are not around to speak about what they learned, but as I said folks don't like to talk about their losses. 

JoT accused people of rooting for him to lose in the early pages.  To be fair they probably were as they dashed off a posting-to-follow 'good luck' message and popped some corn.  I was glad that JoT was being public about it and it stinks that he didn't follow through.  Maybe he is hanging around with the "I made $900K in bitcoin" guy these days and will come back with a splash. 

I know someone who lost $700K by jumping out in March 2020.  Their account is high now so they are feeling good, but they have no idea that instead of 1.2M they would have 1.9M had they just calmed their shit down and waited it out.  Too clever by half, they are completely oblivious to what could have been.  They don't see themselves on the pages of this thread and still think they made an excellent financial decision when they panicked.  They lie to themselves and say it was not panic, it was wise and clever and strategic.  And they will do the same thing again during the next big drop. 

The Top Is In.     

 

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #774 on: May 09, 2022, 08:35:29 AM »
Still got a ways to go to get to $63.51 VTSAX...

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #775 on: May 09, 2022, 12:33:00 PM »
I think $63.51 VTSAX is possible, but OP would still have to claw back several years of dividends, so to get to breakeven we'd really need something in the mid-50s, right?

I'm too lazy to calculate it, though.

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #776 on: May 09, 2022, 01:23:26 PM »
I liquidated all of my non-tax deferred holdings on March 4th. It was by far one of the best financial decisions of my life.

I'll get back in the day they announce a vaccine. This is going to get much worse.
I doubt this is actually how things played out, but let's run the numbers assuming VTSAX and a "vaccine announced" on December 11, 2020 - the date emergency use authorization was given for the Pfizer vaccine:

VTSAX (close) 3/4/20: $77.25

VTSAX (close) 12/11/20: $92.59 (+19.86%)
The market (VTI) barely moved from Dec 10 to Dec 11.  Are you sure the market waited to price in the approval?  With a 95% effective vaccine during a global pandemic, I recall Pfizer's stage III trial results triggering the jubilation.

I recall I logging in to my brokerage account in November.  I stared in disbelief as my CCL call options rose +110% in a matter of hours.  That wasn't index funds, but Covid sensitive stocks that had been priced for bankruptcy, which the market had to reprice after the new information came to light.

You can see this yourself by viewing daily price data for CCL in November.  On Nov 6, CCL closed at $13.82/share, and on Nov 9 CCL opened at $18.49/share.  That 1/3rd jump in a single day compares to a +1% jump from Dec 10 to 11.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/history?period1=1598918400&period2=1609372800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true

Full_Beard

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #777 on: September 26, 2022, 11:01:13 PM »
Both Chuck and junioroldtimer have created an excellent lesson with this thread.  Too bad they are not around to speak about what they learned, but as I said folks don't like to talk about their losses. 
* * *
The Top Is In.     
In hindsight, that call was impressively prescient.
Now, when will the bottom come in . . . .

mistymoney

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #778 on: September 28, 2022, 11:43:24 AM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #779 on: September 28, 2022, 11:45:26 AM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #780 on: September 28, 2022, 11:49:45 AM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

You can tell people when you get lucky and time the market accurately

If you failed, keep it to yourself


Metalcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #781 on: September 28, 2022, 12:04:30 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 12:07:12 PM by Malcat »

Radagast

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #782 on: September 28, 2022, 12:16:03 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
Yup, that guy really resonated with me.

not j/k

Metalcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #783 on: September 28, 2022, 01:00:04 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
Yup, that guy really resonated with me.

not j/k

You joke, but in my personal experience, seeing people actually go against the conventional wisdom and own up publicly to the outcomes, good or bad, is something I find highly informative.

GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #784 on: September 28, 2022, 01:11:52 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.

Good point!

Radagast

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #785 on: September 28, 2022, 02:18:31 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
Yup, that guy really resonated with me.

not j/k

You joke, but in my personal experience, seeing people actually go against the conventional wisdom and own up publicly to the outcomes, good or bad, is something I find highly informative.
I said not j/k ;)

Metalcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #786 on: September 28, 2022, 02:25:28 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
Yup, that guy really resonated with me.

not j/k

You joke, but in my personal experience, seeing people actually go against the conventional wisdom and own up publicly to the outcomes, good or bad, is something I find highly informative.
I said not j/k ;)

Malcat reading comprehension fail :(

dragoncar

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #787 on: September 28, 2022, 05:05:08 PM »
Bad malcat!  But I repeat myself

Metalcat

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #788 on: September 28, 2022, 08:13:49 PM »
Bad malcat!  But I repeat myself

;)

Nice

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #789 on: September 28, 2022, 08:22:50 PM »
so is the lesson.....don't time the market?

I thought the lesson was to never tell people that you're timing the market.  :P

nono, the lesson is to always tell people when you market time, and keep everyone posted about it for years, but with an honest humility and sense of humour if/when it doesn't work in your favour because that makes for the very very BEST content on the forums and would make the OP a fucking LEGEND.

Like the dude from the insane thread that gets posted now and then who leveraged himself like crazy right before the financial crash, stuck to his guns, insisted his approach was correct, lost everything and reported it in real time, and then came back years later to update that he had learned his lesson and managed to retire early anyway through common sense savings and investing.

That guy was a MF legend.
Yup, that guy really resonated with me.

not j/k

You joke, but in my personal experience, seeing people actually go against the conventional wisdom and own up publicly to the outcomes, good or bad, is something I find highly informative.
I said not j/k ;)

Malcat reading comprehension fail :(

I believe this is what you're looking for:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5934

Last post:
Quote
thanks. just want to make sure you are aware you are responding to a quote of mine from 15 years ago!

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #790 on: September 30, 2022, 06:50:04 AM »
I am connected to an older friend--he acknowledges plans to retire in 2023 and was born in 1959--and he sold everything in August 2021. As the market zoomed up over the first 100 days of that, I thought he was an idiot. But now, it's hard for me to keep thinking that.

I talk with him multiple times a week, and He doesn't seem stressed out at all. Just keeps rolling his money as 90-day treasuries, while buying the limit of Series I bonds.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #791 on: September 30, 2022, 09:04:16 AM »
I wonder if junioroldtimer is still in cash or is buying back in now.

BicycleB

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #792 on: September 30, 2022, 11:02:51 AM »
I am connected to an older friend--he acknowledges plans to retire in 2023 and was born in 1959--and he sold everything in August 2021. As the market zoomed up over the first 100 days of that, I thought he was an idiot. But now, it's hard for me to keep thinking that.

I talk with him multiple times a week, and He doesn't seem stressed out at all. Just keeps rolling his money as 90-day treasuries, while buying the limit of Series I bonds.

Interesting story. Keep us posted! :)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #793 on: September 30, 2022, 11:43:42 AM »
I wonder if junioroldtimer is still in cash or is buying back in now.

Probably decided right around the new year to jump back in...

Sultan58

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #794 on: October 01, 2022, 08:22:22 PM »
or he may be sitting there still out of the market and laughing at the rest of us down 24% for the year.

It works both ways....this guy took quite a bashing for a year.....now I don't hear nearly as much chortling from those who bragged about not worrying about a dip here and there. "I'm down 50K but I'm not worried....now I'm down 100K....now I'm down 200K etc. "

Down 24% is a lick for anyone. But don't worry, the bulls that have gone strangely quiet this entire year will be back bragging at some point.


bacchi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #795 on: October 01, 2022, 08:53:39 PM »
or he may be sitting there still out of the market and laughing at the rest of us down 24% for the year.

junioroldtimer sold VTSAX at $68.18 (or, later, at $63.91) and it's now at $87.31. That really doesn't seem like a good play, even after the 24% drop for the year.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #796 on: October 02, 2022, 08:09:52 AM »
or he may be sitting there still out of the market and laughing at the rest of us down 24% for the year.

It works both ways....this guy took quite a bashing for a year.....now I don't hear nearly as much chortling from those who bragged about not worrying about a dip here and there. "I'm down 50K but I'm not worried....now I'm down 100K....now I'm down 200K etc. "

Down 24% is a lick for anyone. But don't worry, the bulls that have gone strangely quiet this entire year will be back bragging at some point.

If the market drops another 30-40% from here JuniorOldTimer will have broken even, except that they didn't collect any dividends in that time.

So no, they're not laughing at anyone right now, I'd guess.

A lot of us "bulls" just shrug and move on with enjoying our lives, or alternately try to push even more money into the market. And yes, they will all be back bragging, because not trying to market time is an excellent way to get rich.

-W

wenchsenior

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #797 on: October 02, 2022, 11:22:38 AM »
or he may be sitting there still out of the market and laughing at the rest of us down 24% for the year.

It works both ways....this guy took quite a bashing for a year.....now I don't hear nearly as much chortling from those who bragged about not worrying about a dip here and there. "I'm down 50K but I'm not worried....now I'm down 100K....now I'm down 200K etc. "

Down 24% is a lick for anyone. But don't worry, the bulls that have gone strangely quiet this entire year will be back bragging at some point.

Meh. It's a lick (farewell, 6 months of being a millionaire), but also an excellent buying opportunity.

:wiggles fingers:

Tyson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #798 on: October 02, 2022, 01:07:22 PM »
Stocks are on sale, 24% off!

mistymoney

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #799 on: October 02, 2022, 01:24:20 PM »
or he may be sitting there still out of the market and laughing at the rest of us down 24% for the year.

It works both ways....this guy took quite a bashing for a year.....now I don't hear nearly as much chortling from those who bragged about not worrying about a dip here and there. "I'm down 50K but I'm not worried....now I'm down 100K....now I'm down 200K etc. "

Down 24% is a lick for anyone. But don't worry, the bulls that have gone strangely quiet this entire year will be back bragging at some point.

I'm not really sure what your point is. It has been pretty well established that timing the market is 99.9% going to end very badly for you. Even Jesse Livermore, the greatest market timer of all time who shorted the great depression and was sitting on 100 million after the crash, died bankrupt.

So - you either stick to your asset allocation, or you time the market. Over the long haul, one of these works 99.9%* of the time, and one fails 99.9%* of the time.

Any one who sells or buys big and cashes in big was lucky. They should be very happy and walk away because if they keep playing the aught to know the house always wins. And if the house loses big for whatever reason, the winner will be jumped on the way to their car and be conviently robbed anyway.


*these numbers are totally really and accurate. the source is this post, feel free to reference in your scholarly work. prefer citation is
money, m (2022) Totally real numbers.
Journal of the Real, V, pp 1656-1672