Author Topic: Weekly Hussman Comment For March 2nd  (Read 972 times)

whitedragon

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Weekly Hussman Comment For March 2nd
« on: March 02, 2015, 09:14:41 AM »
The headline is what caught me this time.

"Plan to Exit Stocks Within the Next 8 Years? Exit Now"
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150302.htm

I mean...I understand how people can read this crap, because I used to before I got more educated on what is actually going on in the stock market, but dang look at this gem.

"Short term interest rates remain near zero, 10-year bond yields have declined below 2%, and our estimate of 10-year S&P 500 total returns has declined to just 1.4% (see Ockham’s Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically-reliable estimates). Recent weeks mark the first time in history that our estimates of prospective 10-year returns on all conventional asset classes have simultaneously declined below 2% annually. We don’t expect a portfolio mix of stocks, bonds and cash to achieve any meaningful return over the coming 8-year period."


Again, like the last time I posted one of these, I have several coworkers that send me this crap all the time, and they have been sitting out of the market since 08-09 or so, blindly following Hussman's lead.  I asked one last week what they thought about missing out on all the gains til now, and they agreed that it kinda sucked, but they still were waiting for the right time to get back in.

Scandium

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Re: Weekly Hussman Comment For March 2nd
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2015, 11:32:18 AM »
Out of curiosity I checked the archive randomly.

In april 2010:
"The corollary to this level of rich valuation is that our projection for 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 is now just 5.3% annually"

So, 5 years in, how did that work out?..

hm, checked some other random ones. Every time they seem to talk about unfavorable valuations and market being "overbought". Is that always the recommendation? Apparently there's a bubble in 2003, 2004, 2005, and  2010, and now 2015. And that's just the ones I looked at