Poll

Take your pick!

0-2 Years
54 (24.4%)
2-4 Years
47 (21.3%)
4-6 Years
23 (10.4%)
6-8 Years
10 (4.5%)
8-10 Years
8 (3.6%)
Bacon!
79 (35.7%)

Total Members Voted: 209

Author Topic: We know a recessions will come, but when?  (Read 24799 times)

Pooperman

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We know a recessions will come, but when?
« on: May 22, 2015, 06:20:25 AM »
This is relative to June 2015 (for any future voters/observers). Please explain your reasoning for choosing the band that you did. I chose 2-4 because of where unemployment is right now. It is at 5.4% (U3). When it breaks the 5% barrier, between 2 and 3 years to the market high and about 3 years until the beginning of the recessions if recent data is to be believed. We are within a year of hitting 5%, so 2-4 years will encompass all of this time.

This says nothing of the markets beyond that they will dip whenever the recession happens. Could be minor, could be major. Who knows.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2015, 06:34:46 AM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2015, 06:53:36 AM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

You could be right. We'll see how Q2 shapes up and what the consequences are/will be.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2015, 08:11:02 AM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

You could be right. We'll see how Q2 shapes up and what the consequences are/will be.

Q1 was 0.2% and the revision to that estimate comes out next week. With the dollar getting so strong, there are some winds stiffening against us.

mohawkbrah

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2015, 09:26:52 AM »
the UK ftse seems to be flat-lining as well. could be looking at another western world recession in the coming years?

GuitarStv

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2015, 10:36:18 AM »
Yay!

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2015, 10:42:02 AM »
If there is another recession, I don't know how governments will react. It's hard to push interest rates lower than zero. The normal economic recovery tools have been used and are being used.

hodedofome

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2015, 01:55:33 PM »
I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2015, 02:15:15 PM »
I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.

Added that option just for you.

sol

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2015, 02:29:12 PM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.

Blonde Lawyer

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2015, 02:39:22 PM »
I went with Bacon since I have no idea 

Cookie78

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2015, 03:20:50 PM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.

+1

hodedofome

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2015, 04:22:45 PM »

I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.

Added that option just for you.

Ha. Thanks, I voted bacon.


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dycker1978

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2015, 04:29:46 PM »
Bacon... nuff said!

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2015, 04:39:16 PM »
Come on now, the answer has to be bacon for everyone rational. There's no point to the poll (except to identify overly confident and delusional people) now with bacon. By forcing people to pick their best guess, it's at least seeing what people think.

Rubic

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2015, 02:17:05 PM »
I love bacon.  I cook thickly sliced bacon at 325F/163C for 65 minutes in the oven (no pre-heat).  I save the grease and use it as a substitute for cooking oil, mostly.

However if I encountered a burning bush and someone in Charlton Heston's voice proclaimed "the recession officially begins at +HH:MM:SS UTC", I can't think of anything I would do differently than what I'm currently doing now.  Sell stocks?  Recessions can be great buying opportunities.  Buy stocks?  Maybe.  Ride my bike?  Now you're talkin'


forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2015, 02:19:33 PM »
I love cooking things in bacon grease. Once I fried hamburgers in it. One of my better ideas.

dess1313

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2015, 10:50:49 PM »
I think with the price drop of gas, its going to accelerate things.  We might be starting one right now.  Lots of people in alberta have lost jobs.  Their families are now struggling, they don't spend as much, less money flows into pockets of others in that province, starts a bad spiral.   i've heard 80000+ jobs lost.  Thats a HUGE hit. 

Some people moved out there specifically for jobs, so they'll be leaving alberta, coming back to provinces with no jobs guaranteed.  Some houses will get forclosed, some bills not paid. This could drop the housing market down from just the job loss.  Banks still seem to be finding ways to risk too much money and too little down on houses, while not looking at credit card costs/payments and such.

 i think we're hitting another housing bubble again despite the issues that brought us here in the first place

okits

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2015, 12:47:49 AM »
I love cooking things in bacon grease. Once I fried hamburgers in it. One of my better ideas.

Try scrambled eggs or grilled cheese!  Bacon grease makes everything tastier!

Now we can start a poll on when my heart attack will be...

okits

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2015, 12:51:07 AM »
I voted bacon.  Too many known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Plus it already feels like we're in one.  When was the Canadian economy last uncomatose?  Early 2008?  Some areas are doing better than others but I wouldn't say sentiment is optimistic or great, and confidence plays a big role in consumer and business spending.

dungoofed

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2015, 01:29:03 AM »
Come on now, the answer has to be bacon for everyone rational.

It may be rash of me to say but I think there's a joke in there somewhere.

btw I'm going to have a punt and say that US recession will be here from Q2. Stock up on treasuries while they're still yielding positive!

Roland of Gilead

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2015, 07:13:04 AM »
I didn't see the option for a recession starting on September 21 2015 and ending March 8 2017 but that is my vote.  I don't like to get more specific but could pin down the hour it will start if you really force me.

MoneyCat

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2015, 07:24:43 AM »
Recession must be on its way.  I've only earned 4% on my investments so far this year.

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2015, 07:39:57 AM »
Recession must be on its way.  I've only earned 4% on my investments so far this year.

So at a rate of 10%+/yr?

Al1961

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2015, 08:55:55 AM »
Bacon, or maybe potato.

Pick a country, the next recession is just about to happen, is currently in progress, or has just ended.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 09:00:13 AM »
Bacon, or maybe potato.

Pick a country, the next recession is just about to happen, is currently in progress, or has just ended.

Yeah, most of us are answering about our home countries, and those are not the same. So the poll is not going to be too helpful.

WerKater

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2015, 09:09:50 AM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #27 on: May 24, 2015, 09:22:38 AM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?

If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.

milesdividendmd

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #28 on: May 24, 2015, 10:06:49 AM »

I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

This logic would have predicted that we were in a recession after Q1 of 2014, when growth was negative. (We weren't)

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #29 on: May 24, 2015, 10:11:48 AM »
Yes, there's been an unusual set of Q1 numbers being much lower than the rest of the year the past several years. Perhaps some kind of statistical methodological problem.

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #30 on: May 24, 2015, 10:36:41 AM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?

If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.

I thought we stopped buying stuff since we're fairly Mustachian...?

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #31 on: May 24, 2015, 12:02:33 PM »
I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned.  If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?

If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.

I thought we stopped buying stuff since we're fairly Mustachian...?

I knew there was a catch!

Indexer

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #32 on: May 24, 2015, 07:14:50 PM »
It is really impossible to pick in advance so I said bacon.

I don't think the US is at a 'peak' right now.  I'm going to agree with the first post in this topic that our peaks normally happen after unemployment is below 5% for awhile.  If the US has a recession(not related to the rest of the world) in the short term it will likely be one of those 'growth is kind of slow.... technically it was -0.01% or so for two quarters=definition of recession.'  This type of recession doesn't normally come with massive layoffs or a 50% drop in the stock market.  We have actually had a few periods of negative growth over the past few years, but it always recovered quick enough to avoid the definition of a recession.

If we have to pick when we will see the next true peak and then recession periods of the business cycle....  I don't know.  The one part of the world that actually looks bubbly right now is China.  Their housing market looks similar to the US in 07, and their stock market looks similar to the US in 1999.  Manufacturing growth has been slowing, commodity inventories are building up, housing prices have been falling, defaults are rising..... and China has been a source of world growth the past few years.  GM is selling more cars in China than in the USA.  I'm not saying if they tank it is the end of the world, but given the already slow growth in the US and Europe any hit to world growth is likely to push those barely positive growth numbers into the negative.  Again... I won't make a 'when' prediction, but 'if' we have a serious recession in the next few years this would be my best guess why it would happen. 

waltworks

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #33 on: May 24, 2015, 10:04:17 PM »
Demographics are pretty solid for a while for working age population (in the US), so I'd say not for a while. That said, who the F knows. The business cycle is just not very predictable - otherwise it would be very easy to get rich shorting/going long.

CR has had some good posts about this stuff: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/05/demographics-are-now-improving.html

-W

MoneyCat

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #34 on: May 25, 2015, 07:30:45 AM »
I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy.  I guess that's globalization for you.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2015, 07:36:24 AM »
I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy.  I guess that's globalization for you.

I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2015, 07:37:32 AM »
Demographics are pretty solid for a while for working age population (in the US), so I'd say not for a while. That said, who the F knows. The business cycle is just not very predictable - otherwise it would be very easy to get rich shorting/going long.

CR has had some good posts about this stuff: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/05/demographics-are-now-improving.html

-W

I don't think the long term demographic forces are determinative of short term recessions. Recessions happen for any number of reasons. There wasn't a giant demographic shift in 2008 for example.

James

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2015, 07:42:05 AM »
Given the slow pace of the recovery, I don't expect a recession for another few years. Having said that, my confidence is about nil, just a random guess on a Monday morning.

Cookie78

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #38 on: May 25, 2015, 08:35:51 AM »
I think with the price drop of gas, its going to accelerate things.  We might be starting one right now.  Lots of people in alberta have lost jobs.  Their families are now struggling, they don't spend as much, less money flows into pockets of others in that province, starts a bad spiral.   i've heard 80000+ jobs lost.  Thats a HUGE hit. 

Some people moved out there specifically for jobs, so they'll be leaving alberta, coming back to provinces with no jobs guaranteed.  Some houses will get forclosed, some bills not paid. This could drop the housing market down from just the job loss.  Banks still seem to be finding ways to risk too much money and too little down on houses, while not looking at credit card costs/payments and such.

 i think we're hitting another housing bubble again despite the issues that brought us here in the first place

I'm in Alberta and I read the other day that jobs are up this month, not down (partly due to part time jobs). They dropped a bit with the oil prices yes, but from what I see they are coming back up already in other sectors.

I don't think it'll be that bad.

astvilla

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #39 on: May 26, 2015, 06:56:42 AM »
I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy.  I guess that's globalization for you.

I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).

Is it bad to be like Japan though? I mean it's already a dense island. Having less people should lower property prices and help their country be more self-sufficient and rely less on imports. Countries or humanity for that matter shouldn't just keep multiplying until all organic matter becomes our food or people. I'm a bit ambivalent about using increase in population as a driver of growth since it's not sustainable in the long run unless we develop a way of migrating off this planet (if it happens, it won't be the US) and admittedly I don't know too much about this, just thoughts.

It is really impossible to pick in advance so I said bacon.

I don't think the US is at a 'peak' right now.  I'm going to agree with the first post in this topic that our peaks normally happen after unemployment is below 5% for awhile.  If the US has a recession(not related to the rest of the world) in the short term it will likely be one of those 'growth is kind of slow.... technically it was -0.01% or so for two quarters=definition of recession.'  This type of recession doesn't normally come with massive layoffs or a 50% drop in the stock market.  We have actually had a few periods of negative growth over the past few years, but it always recovered quick enough to avoid the definition of a recession.

If we have to pick when we will see the next true peak and then recession periods of the business cycle....  I don't know.  The one part of the world that actually looks bubbly right now is China.  Their housing market looks similar to the US in 07, and their stock market looks similar to the US in 1999.  Manufacturing growth has been slowing, commodity inventories are building up, housing prices have been falling, defaults are rising..... and China has been a source of world growth the past few years.  GM is selling more cars in China than in the USA.  I'm not saying if they tank it is the end of the world, but given the already slow growth in the US and Europe any hit to world growth is likely to push those barely positive growth numbers into the negative.  Again... I won't make a 'when' prediction, but 'if' we have a serious recession in the next few years this would be my best guess why it would happen. 

Are you suggesting there's a good chance for global economic slowdown? Not a crash in any sense but just a flat economy. Can economic growth continue unimpeded if population growth is curbed or falls flat decades from now? I was thinking could the market keep going up if everyone in the world achieved a reasonable standard of living and population growth was flat. It doesn't seem possible that there could be economic growth without population growth as a driver. Or maybe there is a scenario for growth as a population trims down (which it probably should trim down?)

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #40 on: May 26, 2015, 07:05:28 AM »
I would appreciate a vegetarian voting option.
Spoiler: show
:p


if i do that, ill pick something that someone is allergic to. its a slippery slope!

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #41 on: May 26, 2015, 07:29:52 AM »
I picked 2-4 years because it seemed equally as likely as the other choices, and because I didn't scan the list far enough to see bacon.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #42 on: May 26, 2015, 07:31:09 AM »
I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy.  I guess that's globalization for you.

I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).

Is it bad to be like Japan though? I mean it's already a dense island. Having less people should lower property prices and help their country be more self-sufficient and rely less on imports. Countries or humanity for that matter shouldn't just keep multiplying until all organic matter becomes our food or people. I'm a bit ambivalent about using increase in population as a driver of growth since it's not sustainable in the long run unless we develop a way of migrating off this planet (if it happens, it won't be the US) and admittedly I don't know too much about this, just thoughts.

It's a painful process for the people involved.

dungoofed

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #43 on: May 26, 2015, 07:36:20 AM »
Less painful than you'd expect. Robots/automation have picked up a lot of the slack. Technology.

skunkfunk

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #44 on: May 26, 2015, 08:34:52 AM »
I chose 4-6 on a hunch. I do not follow market prices and whatever it is you guys follow to get any sort of clue about what might happen.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #45 on: May 26, 2015, 09:17:28 AM »
Less painful than you'd expect. Robots/automation have picked up a lot of the slack. Technology.

Yeah, not like cutting your arm off painful. But their economy's been hurting for the last 30 years or so. If you tried to retire on a 4% SWR of Japanese investments 30 years ago, you didn't make it.

Bob W

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #46 on: May 27, 2015, 09:20:09 AM »
I'm sure according to the government that according to their formulas (x quarters of negative growth,  blah,  blah,) we are not currently in a recession. 

The reality for most US citizens is we have been in a recession for well over a decade with real wages going down consistently during that time and "real" unemployment and underemployment being close to the 20% level.    Throw in the real inflation rate of close to 8% (even higher on health insurance) and we are in a pretty shitty time historically.   

For you young'uns here -- in the not too distant past a person could buy a standard suburban house for the equivalent of 2 years income, single earner.  One could buy 7 gallons of gas for the equivalent of 1 hour of working at minimum wage and health insurance premiums were equal to less than 1 day work each month. 

If you have never known any different then you might actually believe the economy is doing well.   So let's not call it a recession or depression but merely refer to it for what it is --- a long term shitession.   
 

The US economy is trending down and I would expect that trend to continue indefinitely.     

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #47 on: May 27, 2015, 09:56:09 AM »
I'm sure according to the government that according to their formulas (x quarters of negative growth,  blah,  blah,) we are not currently in a recession. 

The reality for most US citizens is we have been in a recession for well over a decade with real wages going down consistently during that time and "real" unemployment and underemployment being close to the 20% level.    Throw in the real inflation rate of close to 8% (even higher on health insurance) and we are in a pretty shitty time historically.   

For you young'uns here -- in the not too distant past a person could buy a standard suburban house for the equivalent of 2 years income, single earner.  One could buy 7 gallons of gas for the equivalent of 1 hour of working at minimum wage and health insurance premiums were equal to less than 1 day work each month. 

If you have never known any different then you might actually believe the economy is doing well.   So let's not call it a recession or depression but merely refer to it for what it is --- a long term shitession.   
 

The US economy is trending down and I would expect that trend to continue indefinitely.     

I think the US economy has been improving. My opinion is mostly based on the numbers that say this. I bought my house for less than 1 year of my 5-figure income. The minimum wage hasn't been increasing with inflation, but that's a different issue. And healthcare cost inflation has been outrageous for a variety of reasons--and is a clear outlier example to pick from. But if you look at the overall picture, some people have done really well, and those in the middle and lower income groups have stagnated. Even so, our dollars buy better products in many cases. Our phones are way better for example.

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #48 on: May 29, 2015, 06:47:26 AM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html

MoneyCat

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #49 on: May 29, 2015, 10:41:25 AM »
I'm not too concerned about a recession coming.  I have plenty of savings and I'm not planning to move for another 28 years, so I don't have to worry about the value of my house dropping.  The markets will eventually return and everything will be fine.  You only really need to worry about it if you have overleveraged yourself like the average American.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!