The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Pooperman on May 22, 2015, 06:20:25 AM
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This is relative to June 2015 (for any future voters/observers). Please explain your reasoning for choosing the band that you did. I chose 2-4 because of where unemployment is right now. It is at 5.4% (U3). When it breaks the 5% barrier, between 2 and 3 years to the market high and about 3 years until the beginning of the recessions if recent data is to be believed. We are within a year of hitting 5%, so 2-4 years will encompass all of this time.
This says nothing of the markets beyond that they will dip whenever the recession happens. Could be minor, could be major. Who knows.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
You could be right. We'll see how Q2 shapes up and what the consequences are/will be.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
You could be right. We'll see how Q2 shapes up and what the consequences are/will be.
Q1 was 0.2% and the revision to that estimate comes out next week. With the dollar getting so strong, there are some winds stiffening against us.
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the UK ftse seems to be flat-lining as well. could be looking at another western world recession in the coming years?
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Yay!
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If there is another recession, I don't know how governments will react. It's hard to push interest rates lower than zero. The normal economic recovery tools have been used and are being used.
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I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.
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I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.
Added that option just for you.
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
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I went with Bacon since I have no idea
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
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I can say with complete assurance that I have absolutely no idea. Didn't vote because I didn't see that option.
Added that option just for you.
Ha. Thanks, I voted bacon.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Bacon... nuff said!
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Come on now, the answer has to be bacon for everyone rational. There's no point to the poll (except to identify overly confident and delusional people) now with bacon. By forcing people to pick their best guess, it's at least seeing what people think.
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I love bacon. I cook thickly sliced bacon at 325F/163C for 65 minutes in the oven (no pre-heat). I save the grease and use it as a substitute for cooking oil, mostly.
However if I encountered a burning bush and someone in Charlton Heston's voice proclaimed "the recession officially begins at +HH:MM:SS UTC", I can't think of anything I would do differently than what I'm currently doing now. Sell stocks? Recessions can be great buying opportunities. Buy stocks? Maybe. Ride my bike? Now you're talkin'
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I love cooking things in bacon grease. Once I fried hamburgers in it. One of my better ideas.
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I think with the price drop of gas, its going to accelerate things. We might be starting one right now. Lots of people in alberta have lost jobs. Their families are now struggling, they don't spend as much, less money flows into pockets of others in that province, starts a bad spiral. i've heard 80000+ jobs lost. Thats a HUGE hit.
Some people moved out there specifically for jobs, so they'll be leaving alberta, coming back to provinces with no jobs guaranteed. Some houses will get forclosed, some bills not paid. This could drop the housing market down from just the job loss. Banks still seem to be finding ways to risk too much money and too little down on houses, while not looking at credit card costs/payments and such.
i think we're hitting another housing bubble again despite the issues that brought us here in the first place
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I love cooking things in bacon grease. Once I fried hamburgers in it. One of my better ideas.
Try scrambled eggs or grilled cheese! Bacon grease makes everything tastier!
Now we can start a poll on when my heart attack will be...
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I voted bacon. Too many known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Plus it already feels like we're in one. When was the Canadian economy last uncomatose? Early 2008? Some areas are doing better than others but I wouldn't say sentiment is optimistic or great, and confidence plays a big role in consumer and business spending.
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Come on now, the answer has to be bacon for everyone rational.
It may be rash of me to say but I think there's a joke in there somewhere.
btw I'm going to have a punt and say that US recession will be here from Q2. Stock up on treasuries while they're still yielding positive!
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I didn't see the option for a recession starting on September 21 2015 and ending March 8 2017 but that is my vote. I don't like to get more specific but could pin down the hour it will start if you really force me.
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Recession must be on its way. I've only earned 4% on my investments so far this year.
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Recession must be on its way. I've only earned 4% on my investments so far this year.
So at a rate of 10%+/yr?
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Bacon, or maybe potato.
Pick a country, the next recession is just about to happen, is currently in progress, or has just ended.
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Bacon, or maybe potato.
Pick a country, the next recession is just about to happen, is currently in progress, or has just ended.
Yeah, most of us are answering about our home countries, and those are not the same. So the poll is not going to be too helpful.
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?
If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
This logic would have predicted that we were in a recession after Q1 of 2014, when growth was negative. (We weren't)
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Yes, there's been an unusual set of Q1 numbers being much lower than the rest of the year the past several years. Perhaps some kind of statistical methodological problem.
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?
If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.
I thought we stopped buying stuff since we're fairly Mustachian...?
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I don't know either, but the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. If I get to vote, I'm going to ask for it to start and then end within the next three years.
+1
That would indeed be very convenient. Where can we petition for that?
If we all stop buying stuff now, that could be a start.
I thought we stopped buying stuff since we're fairly Mustachian...?
I knew there was a catch!
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It is really impossible to pick in advance so I said bacon.
I don't think the US is at a 'peak' right now. I'm going to agree with the first post in this topic that our peaks normally happen after unemployment is below 5% for awhile. If the US has a recession(not related to the rest of the world) in the short term it will likely be one of those 'growth is kind of slow.... technically it was -0.01% or so for two quarters=definition of recession.' This type of recession doesn't normally come with massive layoffs or a 50% drop in the stock market. We have actually had a few periods of negative growth over the past few years, but it always recovered quick enough to avoid the definition of a recession.
If we have to pick when we will see the next true peak and then recession periods of the business cycle.... I don't know. The one part of the world that actually looks bubbly right now is China. Their housing market looks similar to the US in 07, and their stock market looks similar to the US in 1999. Manufacturing growth has been slowing, commodity inventories are building up, housing prices have been falling, defaults are rising..... and China has been a source of world growth the past few years. GM is selling more cars in China than in the USA. I'm not saying if they tank it is the end of the world, but given the already slow growth in the US and Europe any hit to world growth is likely to push those barely positive growth numbers into the negative. Again... I won't make a 'when' prediction, but 'if' we have a serious recession in the next few years this would be my best guess why it would happen.
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Demographics are pretty solid for a while for working age population (in the US), so I'd say not for a while. That said, who the F knows. The business cycle is just not very predictable - otherwise it would be very easy to get rich shorting/going long.
CR has had some good posts about this stuff: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/05/demographics-are-now-improving.html
-W
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I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy. I guess that's globalization for you.
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I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy. I guess that's globalization for you.
I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).
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Demographics are pretty solid for a while for working age population (in the US), so I'd say not for a while. That said, who the F knows. The business cycle is just not very predictable - otherwise it would be very easy to get rich shorting/going long.
CR has had some good posts about this stuff: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/05/demographics-are-now-improving.html
-W
I don't think the long term demographic forces are determinative of short term recessions. Recessions happen for any number of reasons. There wasn't a giant demographic shift in 2008 for example.
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Given the slow pace of the recovery, I don't expect a recession for another few years. Having said that, my confidence is about nil, just a random guess on a Monday morning.
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I think with the price drop of gas, its going to accelerate things. We might be starting one right now. Lots of people in alberta have lost jobs. Their families are now struggling, they don't spend as much, less money flows into pockets of others in that province, starts a bad spiral. i've heard 80000+ jobs lost. Thats a HUGE hit.
Some people moved out there specifically for jobs, so they'll be leaving alberta, coming back to provinces with no jobs guaranteed. Some houses will get forclosed, some bills not paid. This could drop the housing market down from just the job loss. Banks still seem to be finding ways to risk too much money and too little down on houses, while not looking at credit card costs/payments and such.
i think we're hitting another housing bubble again despite the issues that brought us here in the first place
I'm in Alberta and I read the other day that jobs are up this month, not down (partly due to part time jobs). They dropped a bit with the oil prices yes, but from what I see they are coming back up already in other sectors.
I don't think it'll be that bad.
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I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy. I guess that's globalization for you.
I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).
Is it bad to be like Japan though? I mean it's already a dense island. Having less people should lower property prices and help their country be more self-sufficient and rely less on imports. Countries or humanity for that matter shouldn't just keep multiplying until all organic matter becomes our food or people. I'm a bit ambivalent about using increase in population as a driver of growth since it's not sustainable in the long run unless we develop a way of migrating off this planet (if it happens, it won't be the US) and admittedly I don't know too much about this, just thoughts.
It is really impossible to pick in advance so I said bacon.
I don't think the US is at a 'peak' right now. I'm going to agree with the first post in this topic that our peaks normally happen after unemployment is below 5% for awhile. If the US has a recession(not related to the rest of the world) in the short term it will likely be one of those 'growth is kind of slow.... technically it was -0.01% or so for two quarters=definition of recession.' This type of recession doesn't normally come with massive layoffs or a 50% drop in the stock market. We have actually had a few periods of negative growth over the past few years, but it always recovered quick enough to avoid the definition of a recession.
If we have to pick when we will see the next true peak and then recession periods of the business cycle.... I don't know. The one part of the world that actually looks bubbly right now is China. Their housing market looks similar to the US in 07, and their stock market looks similar to the US in 1999. Manufacturing growth has been slowing, commodity inventories are building up, housing prices have been falling, defaults are rising..... and China has been a source of world growth the past few years. GM is selling more cars in China than in the USA. I'm not saying if they tank it is the end of the world, but given the already slow growth in the US and Europe any hit to world growth is likely to push those barely positive growth numbers into the negative. Again... I won't make a 'when' prediction, but 'if' we have a serious recession in the next few years this would be my best guess why it would happen.
Are you suggesting there's a good chance for global economic slowdown? Not a crash in any sense but just a flat economy. Can economic growth continue unimpeded if population growth is curbed or falls flat decades from now? I was thinking could the market keep going up if everyone in the world achieved a reasonable standard of living and population growth was flat. It doesn't seem possible that there could be economic growth without population growth as a driver. Or maybe there is a scenario for growth as a population trims down (which it probably should trim down?)
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I would appreciate a vegetarian voting option.
if i do that, ill pick something that someone is allergic to. its a slippery slope!
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I picked 2-4 years because it seemed equally as likely as the other choices, and because I didn't scan the list far enough to see bacon.
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I think it's interesting that if people are working and earning disposable income it is somehow bad for the economy. I guess that's globalization for you.
I think you mean the opposite. It's when people stop producing (the demographics shift towards retirees) that things slow down. This is part of what is happening in Japan (not enough births, and not enough immigration).
Is it bad to be like Japan though? I mean it's already a dense island. Having less people should lower property prices and help their country be more self-sufficient and rely less on imports. Countries or humanity for that matter shouldn't just keep multiplying until all organic matter becomes our food or people. I'm a bit ambivalent about using increase in population as a driver of growth since it's not sustainable in the long run unless we develop a way of migrating off this planet (if it happens, it won't be the US) and admittedly I don't know too much about this, just thoughts.
It's a painful process for the people involved.
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Less painful than you'd expect. Robots/automation have picked up a lot of the slack. Technology.
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I chose 4-6 on a hunch. I do not follow market prices and whatever it is you guys follow to get any sort of clue about what might happen.
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Less painful than you'd expect. Robots/automation have picked up a lot of the slack. Technology.
Yeah, not like cutting your arm off painful. But their economy's been hurting for the last 30 years or so. If you tried to retire on a 4% SWR of Japanese investments 30 years ago, you didn't make it.
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I'm sure according to the government that according to their formulas (x quarters of negative growth, blah, blah,) we are not currently in a recession.
The reality for most US citizens is we have been in a recession for well over a decade with real wages going down consistently during that time and "real" unemployment and underemployment being close to the 20% level. Throw in the real inflation rate of close to 8% (even higher on health insurance) and we are in a pretty shitty time historically.
For you young'uns here -- in the not too distant past a person could buy a standard suburban house for the equivalent of 2 years income, single earner. One could buy 7 gallons of gas for the equivalent of 1 hour of working at minimum wage and health insurance premiums were equal to less than 1 day work each month.
If you have never known any different then you might actually believe the economy is doing well. So let's not call it a recession or depression but merely refer to it for what it is --- a long term shitession.
The US economy is trending down and I would expect that trend to continue indefinitely.
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I'm sure according to the government that according to their formulas (x quarters of negative growth, blah, blah,) we are not currently in a recession.
The reality for most US citizens is we have been in a recession for well over a decade with real wages going down consistently during that time and "real" unemployment and underemployment being close to the 20% level. Throw in the real inflation rate of close to 8% (even higher on health insurance) and we are in a pretty shitty time historically.
For you young'uns here -- in the not too distant past a person could buy a standard suburban house for the equivalent of 2 years income, single earner. One could buy 7 gallons of gas for the equivalent of 1 hour of working at minimum wage and health insurance premiums were equal to less than 1 day work each month.
If you have never known any different then you might actually believe the economy is doing well. So let's not call it a recession or depression but merely refer to it for what it is --- a long term shitession.
The US economy is trending down and I would expect that trend to continue indefinitely.
I think the US economy has been improving. My opinion is mostly based on the numbers that say this. I bought my house for less than 1 year of my 5-figure income. The minimum wage hasn't been increasing with inflation, but that's a different issue. And healthcare cost inflation has been outrageous for a variety of reasons--and is a clear outlier example to pick from. But if you look at the overall picture, some people have done really well, and those in the middle and lower income groups have stagnated. Even so, our dollars buy better products in many cases. Our phones are way better for example.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html
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I'm not too concerned about a recession coming. I have plenty of savings and I'm not planning to move for another 28 years, so I don't have to worry about the value of my house dropping. The markets will eventually return and everything will be fine. You only really need to worry about it if you have overleveraged yourself like the average American.
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You only really need to worry about it if you have overleveraged yourself like the average American.
(http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/homealonewithabigscream.gif)
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I think we are still in recession for most people, the stock market and corporations are temporarily being propped up with the federal reserve quantitative easing. I still plan on spending as little as possible going forward. This forum helps immensely towards that goal.
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(http://postsfromthepath.com/wordpress/media/Buddha1.jpg)
Before Bacon save and invest in low cost ETFs.
After Bacon save and invest in low cost ETFs.
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This says nothing of the markets beyond that they will dip whenever the recession happens. Could be minor, could be major. Who knows.
My guess is 4 to 6 years. But I'm not banking on that being accurate.
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A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on. Why would I waste time thinking about it?
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A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on. Why would I waste time thinking about it?
Idle speculation is a common human past time. Hmm, I wonder why that is....
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A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on. Why would I waste time thinking about it?
Idle speculation is a common human past time. Hmm, I wonder why that is....
Sameness is boring... Ooo pretty colors. Gentlemen's bets on recessions is an interesting thing.
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I believe that recessions will occur periodically. ( :
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There's always some worry in the news.
When the news is all good, everything seems to be going well.. that's the time to sell!
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My favorite way to collect bacon grease is to bake bacon on a cooling tray over a cookie sheet, pour the grease through a strainer into a jar. Refrigerate. Use as desired.
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I believe that recessions will occur periodically. ( :
Probably not - if they were periodic we could predict them.
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"Recession
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction. It is a general slowdown in economic activity. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise."
Unless of course you have stagflation where inflation rises and unemployment rises.
All very descriptive stuff.
I'm sticking with my "shitcession" definition of our current and more than decade long fall from grace. Sure you're employed with a great income and spending only 50% of your income.
While many people are working two, no benefit, part time jobs saving zilch. The balance is going in that direction more each year. Walmart -- the nations largest employer outside the military industrial complex, will now pay people $9 an hour! They employ over 2 million people and are the largest employer in many states.
There once was a time in the not too distant past when GM was one of the largest employers and their inflation adjusted pay was around $60 and hour plus massive benefits.
If by recession you mean when will "official government determined unemployment" rise it will be sometime in the future.
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I'm sticking with my "shitcession" definition of our current and more than decade long fall from grace. Sure you're employed with a great income and spending only 50% of your income.
While many people are working two, no benefit, part time jobs saving zilch. The balance is going in that direction more each year. Walmart -- the nations largest employer outside the military industrial complex, will now pay people $9 an hour! They employ over 2 million people and are the largest employer in many states.
There once was a time in the not too distant past when GM was one of the largest employers and their inflation adjusted pay was around $60 and hour plus massive benefits.
Allow me to counter Bob W's characteristically pessimistic view of our world with my own unbridled optimism. Certainly the starting salary of the nation's largest employer is nothing middle-class Americans would aspire to, but using those entry-level positions to determine the affluency of the United States isn't very meaningful. Real-adjusted median household income is a much more meaningful gauge.
"but wait, all I hear on the news are the phrases 'stagnant wages' and 'suffering middle class.' Isn't that bad?"
Well it all depends on your frame of reference. Wages are a few percentage points below the absolute height we saw just before 'great recession', and median household income is higher overall than during the 1990s, which was higher than during the 1970s, which was higher than during the 1950s. That hardly seems like the description of a 'decade long fall from grace'.
Speaking of this 'decade long fall' - under what metrics are you measuring this? Unemployment is neither historically high nor low, median wages (as mentioned above) are close to the highest we've ever had, inflation has been very low, mortgage rates are near historical lows. Life span has slowly increased to 78.8 years at birth, median household debt has actually gone down since 2009. From an international perspective, Japan didn't usurp the United States as was widely predicted in the 1980s & 90s. China still has not overtaken the US in most categories despite articles declaring it would do so soon after the millennium. The euro-zone has far deeper economic problems. Who have we fallen from? Loads of analysts have predicted economic chaos from after-effects of "Quantitative Easing" - and even Bernanke declared we were in "uncharted waters" when he started it. We're 5 years in and the floor hasn't collapsed yet. Maybe it will (time will tell) - but it's a bit premature to spread doom-and-gloom there. The US has a manageable and slowly increasing work force
energy is still cheap in real-adjusted terms, and computers and phone costs far less than they did 20 years ago, with more power and capabilties (respectively). Cars come with more features and last on average 4 years longer today than 20 years ago. Renewable energy is finally becoming economical (almost half of all new sources of electricity in the US in the past two years has come from renewable sources).
Finally there's the great, 800pound-gorilla economic metric of them all, Mr. Market. In the last 20 years the SP500 returned 6.9% adjusted. (or 6.1% over the last decade). This is right around the median average. We hit an all-time back in May. Corporate earnings are near an all-time high. OF course it would be better if those earnings were better shared, but as it stands the 'average' person is still doing fairly well from an historical perspective.
I'm not suggesting absolutely everything is hunky-dorey. We have some serious challenges to address, and there is always uncertainty ahead. Heading that list of serious challenges certainly includes income inequality, the environment, our only maginally-improved debt & savings rates, violent extremists (but I can find no point in history where this wasn't a problem), and lots of debt floating around at all levels.
a few sources:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf)
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/renew_co2.cfm (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/renew_co2.cfm)
https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/ (https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/)
https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/ (https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/)
and for more fun, optimistic reading:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/29/everything-is-great-and-nobody-is-happy.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/29/everything-is-great-and-nobody-is-happy.aspx)
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The recession will come in 2018 when the Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is replaced by a more conservative economist who would drastically raise the interest rates.
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A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?
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A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?
1) no. There have been times where a recession has done effectively nothing to the market (1991).
2) yes. Recessions coincide with the major crashes. Look at 2008. The housing bubble burst in 2006/7 and cause the recession from 2007-2008 that brought with it (lagged slightly) the crash in October 2008. Economic activity is priced into the market, and the market is pretty efficient at doing so. The peak of the market in 2007 roughly coincides with the beginning of the recession. It was followed by nearly a year of slow decline before the major event that caused the crash ( Lehman bankruptcy).
A crash is 20+% loss from peak.
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I answered 2 to 4 years. It will be 2017 to 2018. Too much money out there now for it to wind down for 2016. Interest rate hikes this Fall will start the cooling. Well be flat for 2016 and the Fed will be hands off by then. It will fall right into the next presidents lap, hope its a Republican and a one term and out. Would be a great tool to put the final nail in the old Republican Party coffin. Hopefully a new Libertarian based party will rise from the ashes.
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I answered 2 to 4 years. It will be 2017 to 2018. Too much money out there now for it to wind down for 2016. Interest rate hikes this Fall will start the cooling. Well be flat for 2016 and the Fed will be hands off by then. It will fall right into the next presidents lap, hope its a Republican and a one term and out. Would be a great tool to put the final nail in the old Republican Party coffin. Hopefully a new Libertarian based party will rise from the ashes.
Yep we will have the traditional republican recession right after Jeb is sworn in. And then we will relect him after he decides to send everyone 500 dollar checks:)
Seriously recessions (not to be confused with market corrections or crashes) happen every 7 year or so. The longest we have gone since the great depression was 10 years so expecting one in the 2016-2018 time frame isn't exactly going out on a limb.
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html
Wow, you can see into...the present.
(http://touchstonetarot.com/images/lisaswe10.jpg)
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I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.
Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html
Wow, you can see into...the present.
(http://touchstonetarot.com/images/lisaswe10.jpg)
It's surprising how many people don't have that skill.
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I have no idea but I'm vegan so I can't vote Bacon
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A crash is 20+% loss from peak.
How much loss from peak was in 2008 crash? how much was in the crash before that? (in percents)
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A crash is 20+% loss from peak.
How much loss from peak was in 2008 crash? how much was in the crash before that? (in percents)
From peak, the tech burst S&P went down about 48%, and the financial burst S&P went down about 56%
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It will fall right into the next presidents lap,
(http://leadingfinancialexperts.com/images/andex_chart.jpg)
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A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?
No, but normally yes. Normally the two go together, but it isn't a rule.
A recession means the economy has contracted(GDP went down) 2 quarters in a row.
A stock market correction is a 10% drop. A bear market is normally a 20% drop.
Now keep in mind the stock market is normally forward looking. The market could easily drop 20% BEFORE a recession. We also don't normally know that we are in a recession until months after we are already in it. Example: In 2009 the market actually started recovering BEFORE the recession ended which was still well before the recession 'officially ended.'
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(http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EoYjjgWTth4/maxresdefault.jpg)
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(http://memecrunch.com/meme/1UPEY/when-will-then-be-now/image.png)