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Author Topic: We know a recessions will come, but when?  (Read 20872 times)

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2015, 12:19:34 PM »
You only really need to worry about it if you have overleveraged yourself like the average American.


Maxman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2015, 06:35:59 PM »
I think we are still in recession for most people, the stock market and corporations are temporarily being propped up with the federal reserve quantitative easing. I still plan on spending as little as possible going forward. This forum helps immensely towards that goal.

Retire-Canada

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #52 on: May 31, 2015, 07:04:23 AM »


Before Bacon save and invest in low cost ETFs.

After Bacon save and invest in low cost ETFs.

FIRE me

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #53 on: May 31, 2015, 10:02:53 PM »

This says nothing of the markets beyond that they will dip whenever the recession happens. Could be minor, could be major. Who knows.

My guess is 4 to 6 years. But I'm not banking on that being accurate.

MrMoneyPinch

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #54 on: June 02, 2015, 04:57:14 PM »
A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on.  Why would I waste time thinking about it?

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #55 on: June 02, 2015, 05:08:18 PM »
A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on.  Why would I waste time thinking about it?

Idle speculation is a common human past time. Hmm, I wonder why that is....

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #56 on: June 02, 2015, 08:15:14 PM »
A recession is always coming, except when it is already going on.  Why would I waste time thinking about it?

Idle speculation is a common human past time. Hmm, I wonder why that is....

Sameness is boring... Ooo pretty colors. Gentlemen's bets on recessions is an interesting thing.

Nubs

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #57 on: June 03, 2015, 11:11:51 AM »
I believe that recessions will occur periodically.   ( :

daverobev

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #58 on: June 03, 2015, 01:01:41 PM »
There's always some worry in the news.

When the news is all good, everything seems to be going well.. that's the time to sell!

BarkyardBQ

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #59 on: June 03, 2015, 01:10:08 PM »
My favorite way to collect bacon grease is to bake bacon on a cooling tray over a cookie sheet, pour the grease through a strainer into a jar. Refrigerate. Use as desired.

nobodyspecial

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #60 on: June 03, 2015, 01:15:51 PM »
I believe that recessions will occur periodically.   ( :
Probably not - if they were periodic we could predict them.

Bob W

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #61 on: June 05, 2015, 11:12:39 AM »
"Recession


In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction. It is a general slowdown in economic activity. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise."

Unless of course you have stagflation where inflation rises and unemployment rises.

All very descriptive stuff.   

I'm sticking with my "shitcession" definition of our current and more than decade long fall from grace.  Sure you're employed with a great income and spending only 50% of your income.   

While many people are working two, no benefit, part time jobs saving zilch.  The balance is going in that direction more each year.   Walmart -- the nations largest employer outside the military industrial complex,  will now pay people $9 an hour!      They employ over 2 million people and are the largest employer in many states. 

There once was a time in the not too distant past when GM was one of the largest employers and their inflation adjusted pay was around $60 and hour plus massive benefits. 

If by recession you mean when will "official government determined unemployment" rise it will be sometime in the future.   

nereo

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #62 on: June 05, 2015, 01:18:05 PM »

I'm sticking with my "shitcession" definition of our current and more than decade long fall from grace.  Sure you're employed with a great income and spending only 50% of your income.   

While many people are working two, no benefit, part time jobs saving zilch.  The balance is going in that direction more each year.   Walmart -- the nations largest employer outside the military industrial complex,  will now pay people $9 an hour!      They employ over 2 million people and are the largest employer in many states. 

There once was a time in the not too distant past when GM was one of the largest employers and their inflation adjusted pay was around $60 and hour plus massive benefits. 

Allow me to counter Bob W's characteristically pessimistic view of our world with my own unbridled optimism.  Certainly the starting salary of the nation's largest employer is nothing middle-class Americans would aspire to, but using those entry-level positions to determine the affluency of the United States isn't very meaningful.  Real-adjusted median household income is a much more meaningful gauge. 

"but wait, all I hear on the news are the phrases 'stagnant wages' and 'suffering middle class.' Isn't that bad?" 
Well it all depends on your frame of reference.  Wages are a few percentage points below the absolute height we saw just before 'great recession', and median household income is higher overall than during the 1990s, which was higher than during the 1970s, which was higher than during the 1950s.  That hardly seems like the description of a 'decade long fall from grace'.

Speaking of this 'decade long fall' - under what metrics are you measuring this?  Unemployment is neither historically high nor low, median wages (as mentioned above) are close to the highest we've ever had, inflation has been very low, mortgage rates are near historical lows.  Life span has slowly increased to 78.8 years at birth, median household debt has actually gone down since 2009.  From an international perspective, Japan didn't usurp the United States as was widely predicted in the 1980s & 90s.  China still has not overtaken the US in most categories despite articles declaring it would do so soon after the millennium.  The euro-zone has far deeper economic problems.  Who have we fallen from?  Loads of analysts have predicted economic chaos from after-effects of "Quantitative Easing" - and even Bernanke declared we were in "uncharted waters" when he started it.  We're 5 years in and the floor hasn't collapsed yet.  Maybe it will (time will tell) - but it's a bit premature to spread doom-and-gloom there.  The US has a manageable and slowly increasing work force

energy is still cheap in real-adjusted terms, and computers and phone costs far less than they did 20 years ago, with more power and capabilties (respectively). Cars come with more features and last on average 4 years longer today than 20 years ago.  Renewable energy is finally becoming economical (almost half of all new sources of electricity in the US in the past two years has come from renewable sources).

Finally there's the great, 800pound-gorilla economic metric of them all, Mr. Market.  In the last 20 years the SP500 returned 6.9% adjusted. (or 6.1% over the last decade).  This is right around the median average.  We hit an all-time back in May. Corporate earnings are near an all-time high. OF course it would be better if those earnings were better shared, but as it stands the 'average' person is still doing fairly well from an historical perspective.

I'm not suggesting absolutely everything is hunky-dorey.  We have some serious challenges to address, and there is always uncertainty ahead.  Heading that list of serious challenges certainly includes income inequality, the environment, our only maginally-improved debt & savings rates, violent extremists (but I can find no point in history where this wasn't a problem), and lots of debt floating around at all levels.

a few sources:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/renew_co2.cfm
https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/
https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/251007/Are-Cars-Cheaper-Now-than-in-the-1990s/

and for more fun, optimistic reading:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/29/everything-is-great-and-nobody-is-happy.aspx

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #63 on: June 05, 2015, 09:19:46 PM »
The recession will come in 2018 when the Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is replaced by a more conservative economist who would drastically raise the interest rates.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2015, 09:57:41 PM by DavidAnnArbor »

Morpheus

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #64 on: June 09, 2015, 03:29:52 AM »
A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?

Pooperman

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #65 on: June 09, 2015, 04:48:53 AM »
A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?

1) no. There have been times where a recession has done effectively nothing to the market (1991).
2) yes. Recessions coincide with the major crashes. Look at 2008. The housing bubble burst in 2006/7 and cause the recession from 2007-2008 that brought with it (lagged slightly) the crash in October 2008. Economic activity is priced into the market, and the market is pretty efficient at doing so. The peak of the market in 2007 roughly coincides with the beginning of the recession. It was followed by nearly a year of slow decline before the major event that caused the crash ( Lehman bankruptcy).

A crash is 20+% loss from peak.

Bateaux

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #66 on: June 10, 2015, 06:00:28 AM »
I answered 2 to 4 years.  It will be 2017 to 2018.  Too much money out there now for it to wind down for 2016.  Interest rate hikes this Fall will start the cooling.  Well be flat for 2016 and the Fed will be hands off by then.  It will fall right into the next presidents lap, hope its a Republican and a one term and out.  Would be a great tool to put the final nail in the old Republican Party coffin.  Hopefully a new Libertarian based party will rise from the ashes.

foobar

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #67 on: June 10, 2015, 10:30:55 AM »
I answered 2 to 4 years.  It will be 2017 to 2018.  Too much money out there now for it to wind down for 2016.  Interest rate hikes this Fall will start the cooling.  Well be flat for 2016 and the Fed will be hands off by then.  It will fall right into the next presidents lap, hope its a Republican and a one term and out.  Would be a great tool to put the final nail in the old Republican Party coffin.  Hopefully a new Libertarian based party will rise from the ashes.

Yep we will have the traditional republican recession right after Jeb is sworn in.  And then we will relect him after he decides to send everyone 500 dollar checks:)

Seriously recessions (not to be confused with market corrections or crashes) happen every 7 year or so. The longest we have gone since the great depression was 10 years so expecting one in the 2016-2018 time frame isn't exactly going out on a limb.

frugalnacho

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #68 on: June 10, 2015, 11:07:23 AM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html

Wow, you can see into...the present.


forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #69 on: June 12, 2015, 09:10:25 PM »
I think we're either in the beginning of one, or about to be. Q1 growth was essentially 0, and may have been negative after the estimates are revised.

Maybe I could have a retirement career in economic forecasting (of past events :) ):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html

Wow, you can see into...the present.



It's surprising how many people don't have that skill.

moustacheverte

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #70 on: June 13, 2015, 08:16:42 AM »
I have no idea but I'm vegan so I can't vote Bacon

Morpheus

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #71 on: June 13, 2015, 10:01:22 AM »

A crash is 20+% loss from peak.

How much  loss from peak was in 2008 crash? how much was in the crash before that? (in percents)

forummm

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #72 on: June 13, 2015, 12:02:29 PM »

A crash is 20+% loss from peak.

How much  loss from peak was in 2008 crash? how much was in the crash before that? (in percents)

From peak, the tech burst S&P went down about 48%, and the financial burst S&P went down about 56%

Heckler

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #73 on: June 13, 2015, 05:10:19 PM »
  It will fall right into the next presidents lap,


Indexer

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #74 on: June 13, 2015, 05:29:30 PM »
A noob question:
Does a recession necessarily mean that stock market crash?
If so, is a recession the only thing that can trigger a stock market to crash?

No, but normally yes.  Normally the two go together, but it isn't a rule. 

A recession means the economy has contracted(GDP went down) 2 quarters in a row. 

A stock market correction is a 10% drop.  A bear market is normally a 20% drop. 

Now keep in mind the stock market is normally forward looking.  The market could easily drop 20% BEFORE a recession.  We also don't normally know that we are in a recession until months after we are already in it.   Example:  In 2009 the market actually started recovering BEFORE the recession ended which was still well before the recession 'officially ended.'

Heckler

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #75 on: June 13, 2015, 06:30:50 PM »

Mr. Green

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Re: We know a recessions will come, but when?
« Reply #76 on: June 15, 2015, 03:41:32 PM »