VW Stock?

[brooklynguy]

I'm not sure that's who I'd count on to revolutionize the car industry.

We don't have to count on them to single-handedly carry out the revolution, just to instigate it.  The legacy auto companies happily milking the status quo are not going to act as their own catalyst for change.

[forummm]

Electric are the future.
The question is who can manage the global supply chain, delivery, dealer and service network  - Toyota/VW or Apple/Amazon/Google
How different is mass market car making compared to high margin high end consumer electronics?

I think Apple has proven that they can manage global supply chain and they already have a network of stores. Selling a car is a little different--but not that different. And their marketing and brand is literally the best in the world. Tesla's demonstrated that you don't need dealers, and that a small car company can produce the safest cars in the world. And when Apple's lobbying muscle gets involved, along with citizens demanding to buy the hot new Apple car, some of those state laws that protect dealership franchises from competition will be repealed.

Sleek and quiet is fine, but electric cars are in no danger of supplanting internal combustion due to the simple fact of range.

Nobody's going to be able to drive a Tesla cross-country without stopping for more than a couple minutes at a time, any time soon. And that's what it'll take to get most people to take electrics seriously as their primary car.

People already stop for about 10 minutes to gas up on a long trip. Today Teslas can charge up another 150 miles in 30 minutes. That's not so inconvenient already. And the speed is going to get faster and batteries will grow in capacity and drop in cost. You really shouldn't drive for more than a couple hours without taking a break anyway--for safety.

[Scandium]

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2015/09/apples-goal-of-1800-employees-for-project-titan-more-than-triples-what-tesla-had-prior-to-their-ipo.html

Prices are dropping. The next version of Tesla will be $35k. Leafs are cheaper than that now (with less range). The Gigafactory will produce as much battery capacity by itself as the entire world does now. That economy of scale alone will drive prices down on the batteries. The battery is the expensive part now. And that has already been dropping in price at 8-10% per year.

All rumors and speculation, from stock pumping people who are wrong more often than not. We have no proof apple is making a car. Actually, just writing that made me laugh. Apple car, yeah right..

Nobody knows what the next version of the Tesla will cost either. The Volt has a 16 kWh battery and cost more than $35k. The Leaf has a 24 kWh battery and an MSRP of $30k! The Tesla 3 would need to have at least 2x that (range of ~150 mi). Yes I'd like it to be cheaper, but there's a difference between blind hope and being realistic. 

[Jack]

Sleek and quiet is fine, but electric cars are in no danger of supplanting internal combustion due to the simple fact of range.

Nobody's going to be able to drive a Tesla cross-country without stopping for more than a couple minutes at a time, any time soon. And that's what it'll take to get most people to take electrics seriously as their primary car.

People already stop for about 10 minutes to gas up on a long trip. Today Teslas can charge up another 150 miles in 30 minutes. That's not so inconvenient already. And the speed is going to get faster and batteries will grow in capacity and drop in cost. You really shouldn't drive for more than a couple hours without taking a break anyway--for safety.

First, you say that as if a group of people traveling together can't simply switch drivers and keep going.

Second, having to stop every 150 miles is ridiculous. Most gasoline cars can go more like 300-400 miles on a tank of gas. (Diesels can do even better: my '98 Beetle TDI can go 600-700 miles on a tank, and B4 Passat Variant [i.e., wagon] TDIs have been known to get close to 1200! I once drove my Beetle from Atlanta to the western suburbs of St. Louis, Missouri before having to refuel.)

Third, having to stop for 30 minutes is ridiculous. Stopping for 10 minutes for gas is OK because people need about that long to go to the bathroom and buy snacks. Doing that and then having to wait another 20 minutes for the damn car to finish charging, however, would not be acceptable.

Finally, what the [hypothetical at this point] Tesla can actually do [in optimal conditions, with zero margin for error] is irrelevant. What matters is what people think it can do, and until people think an electric car will be able to get them to their vacation destination three states away with the same amount of speed, time and convenience that their internal-combustion car can do now, they're not going to replace it with an electric. They're just not.

[nobodyspecial]

those laws were in place to protect car dealers, not companies. In fact they were put in place to prevent the car makes from having monopoly on sales of their vehicles. Or something, I don't fully understand the reasoning behind it. But yes, it is stupid.

It wasn't as stupid in the 1940/50/60s. You start a dealership, advertise, build up a local customer base etc and the car company can then look at which areas were doing well and open their own stores and close down the dealerships.
It would be like trying to  build a chain of Apple dealerships knowing that Apple could open an Apple store in your city and stop supplying you.

Now that there is a wider choice of cars and ways of buying them, the idea of a single manufacturer franchise makes about as much sense as a cinema chain owned by a single studio.

 

[forummm]

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2015/09/apples-goal-of-1800-employees-for-project-titan-more-than-triples-what-tesla-had-prior-to-their-ipo.html

Prices are dropping. The next version of Tesla will be $35k. Leafs are cheaper than that now (with less range). The Gigafactory will produce as much battery capacity by itself as the entire world does now. That economy of scale alone will drive prices down on the batteries. The battery is the expensive part now. And that has already been dropping in price at 8-10% per year.

All rumors and speculation, from stock pumping people who are wrong more often than not. We have no proof apple is making a car. Actually, just writing that made me laugh. Apple car, yeah right..

Nobody knows what the next version of the Tesla will cost either. The Volt has a 16 kWh battery and cost more than $35k. The Leaf has a 24 kWh battery and an MSRP of $30k! The Tesla 3 would need to have at least 2x that (range of ~150 mi). Yes I'd like it to be cheaper, but there's a difference between blind hope and being realistic. 

I don't think Apple needs people to pump its stock. They already print money. The Volt is an entirely different car. It's much more expensive to have both an electric and conventional engine in the same car.

I think if you did some research on battery prices you'd come to a similar conclusion. They are dropping faster than people thought--even a couple years ago. And about to drop even more with the increased production about to come online in the next few years. The cost of the raw materials for batteries is tens of dollars per kWh. Improving the cost of production is dropping that from mid hundreds ($600ish) down to low hundreds today (probably $150-200ish for Tesla). There's plenty of room to drop further, and even to use cheaper materials. The 250-300 mile 85kWh battery could be under $10k in 10 years. Electric engines and car bodies are inexpensive. With that battery price you can easily have a profitable 200-300 mile car for $20-25k. And you would rarely need that extra battery capacity. And in 5-10 years there will be a pretty thorough network of very fast charging stations. Tesla already has Superchargers pretty much covering the national interstate system. I met a guy who's driven 108,000 miles in his Tesla all around the country. And he has the smaller 60kWh battery.

[forummm]

Second, having to stop every 150 miles is ridiculous.

I've never been with a group of people that could last more than a couple hours (i.e. 150 miles) before a bathroom break. Maybe driving by yourself you wouldn't need one. But then you should be taking more rest stops for safety.

Third, having to stop for 30 minutes is ridiculous. Stopping for 10 minutes for gas is OK because people need about that long to go to the bathroom and buy snacks. Doing that and then having to wait another 20 minutes for the damn car to finish charging, however, would not be acceptable.

This sounds pretty whiny. Being slightly inconvenienced for 20 minutes twice a year. A 500 mile day (which is a lot of driving) could be accomplished with only a stop for lunch (which should take 30 minutes anyway), a stop a couple hours later, and a stop for dinner (again, over 30 minutes). So you would be adding 20 minutes to that middle stop for the whole day. And if you stopped for lunch for an hour you wouldn't need the middle stop. And that's only assuming they don't increase charging speed (which I'm sure they will).

[nobodyspecial]

until people think an electric car will be able to get them to their vacation destination three states away with the same amount of speed, time and convenience that their internal-combustion car can do now, they're not going to replace it with an electric. They're just not.

These are the same people that think they need a full size pickup truck because once a year they need to haul a Christmas tree or buy a 4x4 because they once visited Washington and it snowed. They are going to keep buying F150s no matter what.
The people who buy a reliable grey Japanese sedan and can't tell you what brand it is - they are going to buy electric, and around the world there are a lot more of them

[Scandium]

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2015/09/apples-goal-of-1800-employees-for-project-titan-more-than-triples-what-tesla-had-prior-to-their-ipo.html

Prices are dropping. The next version of Tesla will be $35k. Leafs are cheaper than that now (with less range). The Gigafactory will produce as much battery capacity by itself as the entire world does now. That economy of scale alone will drive prices down on the batteries. The battery is the expensive part now. And that has already been dropping in price at 8-10% per year.

All rumors and speculation, from stock pumping people who are wrong more often than not. We have no proof apple is making a car. Actually, just writing that made me laugh. Apple car, yeah right..

Nobody knows what the next version of the Tesla will cost either. The Volt has a 16 kWh battery and cost more than $35k. The Leaf has a 24 kWh battery and an MSRP of $30k! The Tesla 3 would need to have at least 2x that (range of ~150 mi). Yes I'd like it to be cheaper, but there's a difference between blind hope and being realistic. 

I don't think Apple needs people to pump its stock. They already print money. The Volt is an entirely different car. It's much more expensive to have both an electric and conventional engine in the same car.

I think if you did some research on battery prices you'd come to a similar conclusion. They are dropping faster than people thought--even a couple years ago. And about to drop even more with the increased production about to come online in the next few years. The cost of the raw materials for batteries is tens of dollars per kWh. Improving the cost of production is dropping that from mid hundreds ($600ish) down to low hundreds today (probably $150-200ish for Tesla). There's plenty of room to drop further, and even to use cheaper materials. The 250-300 mile 85kWh battery could be under $10k in 10 years. Electric engines and car bodies are inexpensive. With that battery price you can easily have a profitable 200-300 mile car for $20-25k. And you would rarely need that extra battery capacity. And in 5-10 years there will be a pretty thorough network of very fast charging stations. Tesla already has Superchargers pretty much covering the national interstate system. I met a guy who's driven 108,000 miles in his Tesla all around the country. And he has the smaller 60kWh battery.

I certainly hope you're right. Since we just got our prius it'll be another 10 years until we're looking for a replacement so we'll see then.

FYI I didn't mean Apple is pumping it's stock, but Morgan Stanley.

The whole range/charging break is a bit silly. Almost every household has two cars. And 98% of the days they're used for 50 miles or less. At first, one electric car would be plenty for almost everyone. With a secondary one for longer trips. I love when people argue "but-but, cross country road trips!". How often to most people do that?  At least here on the north east most people vacation on the jersey shore, which is <150 mi from NYC. NY> boston is also less than one full charge of the tesla.

[forummm]

http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2015/09/apples-goal-of-1800-employees-for-project-titan-more-than-triples-what-tesla-had-prior-to-their-ipo.html

Prices are dropping. The next version of Tesla will be $35k. Leafs are cheaper than that now (with less range). The Gigafactory will produce as much battery capacity by itself as the entire world does now. That economy of scale alone will drive prices down on the batteries. The battery is the expensive part now. And that has already been dropping in price at 8-10% per year.

All rumors and speculation, from stock pumping people who are wrong more often than not. We have no proof apple is making a car. Actually, just writing that made me laugh. Apple car, yeah right..

Nobody knows what the next version of the Tesla will cost either. The Volt has a 16 kWh battery and cost more than $35k. The Leaf has a 24 kWh battery and an MSRP of $30k! The Tesla 3 would need to have at least 2x that (range of ~150 mi). Yes I'd like it to be cheaper, but there's a difference between blind hope and being realistic. 

I don't think Apple needs people to pump its stock. They already print money. The Volt is an entirely different car. It's much more expensive to have both an electric and conventional engine in the same car.

I think if you did some research on battery prices you'd come to a similar conclusion. They are dropping faster than people thought--even a couple years ago. And about to drop even more with the increased production about to come online in the next few years. The cost of the raw materials for batteries is tens of dollars per kWh. Improving the cost of production is dropping that from mid hundreds ($600ish) down to low hundreds today (probably $150-200ish for Tesla). There's plenty of room to drop further, and even to use cheaper materials. The 250-300 mile 85kWh battery could be under $10k in 10 years. Electric engines and car bodies are inexpensive. With that battery price you can easily have a profitable 200-300 mile car for $20-25k. And you would rarely need that extra battery capacity. And in 5-10 years there will be a pretty thorough network of very fast charging stations. Tesla already has Superchargers pretty much covering the national interstate system. I met a guy who's driven 108,000 miles in his Tesla all around the country. And he has the smaller 60kWh battery.

I certainly hope you're right. Since we just got our prius it'll be another 10 years until we're looking for a replacement so we'll see then.

FYI I didn't mean Apple is pumping it's stock, but Morgan Stanley.

The whole range/charging break is a bit silly. Almost every household has two cars. And 98% of the days they're used for 50 miles or less. At first, one electric car would be plenty for almost everyone. With a secondary one for longer trips. I love when people argue "but-but, cross country road trips!". How often to most people do that?  At least here on the north east most people vacation on the jersey shore, which is <150 mi from NYC. NY> boston is also less than one full charge of the tesla.

We've had no ICE car for a year now. The only time we went for a drive too long for our Leafs was in the middle of our trip to Canada, so we rented an ICE anyway (driving for 3-4 days to get there, then again to get home, would have been impractical anyway). I only charge my car about once per week. DW about 2x. It's plenty of range. Even with the limited infrastructure available now we could get from Atlanta to Nashville with a Leaf if we wanted to. When we were there last year there was coincidentally a quick charge station across the street from our hotel (Cracker Barrels seem to have them around here).

[Bourbon]

Second, having to stop every 150 miles is ridiculous.

I've never been with a group of people that could last more than a couple hours (i.e. 150 miles) before a bathroom break. Maybe driving by yourself you wouldn't need one. But then you should be taking more rest stops for safety.

Third, having to stop for 30 minutes is ridiculous. Stopping for 10 minutes for gas is OK because people need about that long to go to the bathroom and buy snacks. Doing that and then having to wait another 20 minutes for the damn car to finish charging, however, would not be acceptable.

This sounds pretty whiny. Being slightly inconvenienced for 20 minutes twice a year. A 500 mile day (which is a lot of driving) could be accomplished with only a stop for lunch (which should take 30 minutes anyway), a stop a couple hours later, and a stop for dinner (again, over 30 minutes). So you would be adding 20 minutes to that middle stop for the whole day. And if you stopped for lunch for an hour you wouldn't need the middle stop. And that's only assuming they don't increase charging speed (which I'm sure they will).

I'm going to disagree here.  Most of my travel is local and in town, but when we make a road trip, we move on down the road.  We just did a 4 hour run to St Louis with no stops.  When we drive to Texas the goal is to stop for a restroom break when the gas runs out.  Especially when running through the night, I wouldn't look forward to stopping for 30 minutes at a go.

That's not to say that electric can't take off for this reason, but I think it is safe and common to go more than 150 miles without a stop.

[mrpercentage]

Everyone has seen a trolly run with a contact bar for electricity. An electric car's contact with come out when needed and will point down to a single electric rail that will only exist on interstate highways. Long distance check. Possible check. Needs to happen check. A meter will be relayed via satellite link and rail components will be stored via computer and billed monthly.

[forummm]

Another possibility is that you'll be able to rent a larger battery if the 20 minute stops are too much for you. Or they could upgrade the charging speed so it's a 5 or 10 minute stop to put another 200 miles in. Or you could rent some kind of hydrogen fuel cell or even an gas generator for trips that charges the battery as you drive.

Teslas are also designed so that the entire battery can be swapped out in 90 seconds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XdiGMIUxeY

There are a lot of options.

Or you could just deal with it for 20 or 40 extra minutes a couple times per year.

[DarinC]

Oh wow, really?! I know my '98 is a better car than the '09+s in general, but I didn't realize it has better emissions too!

Only compared to diesel VWs, at least for now. Once they fix the problem and/or buyback the cars, you're outa luck. :D

First, you say that as if a group of people traveling together can't simply switch drivers and keep going.

Second, having to stop every 150 miles is ridiculous. Most gasoline cars can go more like 300-400 miles on a tank of gas. (Diesels can do even better: my '98 Beetle TDI can go 600-700 miles on a tank, and B4 Passat Variant [i.e., wagon] TDIs have been known to get close to 1200! I once drove my Beetle from Atlanta to the western suburbs of St. Louis, Missouri before having to refuel.)

Third, having to stop for 30 minutes is ridiculous. Stopping for 10 minutes for gas is OK because people need about that long to go to the bathroom and buy snacks. Doing that and then having to wait another 20 minutes for the damn car to finish charging, however, would not be acceptable.

Finally, what the [hypothetical at this point] Tesla can actually do [in optimal conditions, with zero margin for error] is irrelevant. What matters is what people think it can do, and until people think an electric car will be able to get them to their vacation destination three states away with the same amount of speed, time and convenience that their internal-combustion car can do now, they're not going to replace it with an electric. They're just not.

Every 150 miles on average is a bit on the low side, every ~200-250 miles is more likely. I can certainly understand not getting a Tesla if you drive for 400-700 miles stretches and don't want to stop for more than 10 minutes in between. There are some people who do mind those delays like you do, and other people who don't. Just because some people wouldn't buy an EV doesn't mean there won't be a market for them. Different people prioritize different things.

[Retire-Canada]

I suspect ICE will phased out for consumer use by ever tightening emission standards.

Commercial and military applications will keep them around a bunch longer, but getting rid of the consumer ICE will be a good start and will buy us time to work out the issues with long haul/remote service applications.

[Aphalite]

Or you could just deal with it for 20 or 40 extra minutes a couple times per year.

Forum, your arguments on driving range has been pretty consistent in fitting how you THINK people should act and not, as Jack points out, how they ACTUALLY act. Most people should also get rid of unnecessary expenses and save for retirement, but they don't. It's not like Jack is disagreeing with you on if Tesla is a good product, he's merely point out reality. See:

Finally, what the [hypothetical at this point] Tesla can actually do [in optimal conditions, with zero margin for error] is irrelevant. What matters is what people think it can do, and until people think an electric car will be able to get them to their vacation destination three states away with the same amount of speed, time and convenience that their internal-combustion car can do now, they're not going to replace it with an electric. They're just not.

[DarinC]

There are people who hold the view Jack mentioned, but there are also plenty of people who don't. If anything it's the cost of the cars more than the time spent (super) charging that's keeping some people on the sidelines. Still there's plenty of demand and Tesla sells every car they build.

[Aphalite]

There are people who hold the view Jack mentioned, but there are also plenty of people who don't. If anything it's the cost of the cars more than the time spent (super) charging that's keeping some people on the sidelines. Still there's plenty of demand and Tesla sells every car they build.

I don't think there's that much demand - it probably depends on the company you keep - if it's highly educated/wealthier, I think it might be more demand than the national/global average

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Global_outlook
"The United States is the leading market with a stock of over 290,000 plug-in electric cars sold since 2008, representing 41% of global sales." - and the US EV market is less than 1% of total new car sales
The market share of electric vehicles is pretty tiny still, but who knows if it'll grow to become something significant?

[DarinC]

That's accurate, but Tesla also has at this point, ~10% of the luxury car market. Demand is great for the product, but they also aren't competing outside of the luxury car market yet.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/04/tesla-nabs-8-of-the-us-luxury-car-market.aspx

If the S continues to do well, the X sells as well as reservations indicate it will, and the gigafactory come online, the model 3 will probably take a big chunk of market share unless other manufacturers step up their game. Plug-ins are also growing faster than hybrids did, so there's a good chance both will continue to capture market share over the next decade or so.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085724_electric-cars-sell-faster-than-hybrids-did-at-same-point

[nereo]

Or you could just deal with it for 20 or 40 extra minutes a couple times per year.

Forum, your arguments on driving range has been pretty consistent in fitting how you THINK people should act and not, as Jack points out, how they ACTUALLY act. Most people should also get rid of unnecessary expenses and save for retirement, but they don't. It's not like Jack is disagreeing with you on if Tesla is a good product, he's merely point out reality. See:

Finally, what the [hypothetical at this point] Tesla can actually do [in optimal conditions, with zero margin for error] is irrelevant. What matters is what people think it can do, and until people think an electric car will be able to get them to their vacation destination three states away with the same amount of speed, time and convenience that their internal-combustion car can do now, they're not going to replace it with an electric. They're just not.

Reading both Forummm's and Jack's responses (as well as the others who have chimed in) and I have to say I agree with both commenters... and perhaps that's an important detail that's being overlooked.  Forummm is correct that the vast majority of drivers do not need to drive more than 150mi at a time for the vast majority of their trips, and that those very few trips a year when a range greater than 150mi is required there are lots of solutions (waiting another ~10 minutes, auxillary batteries, better charging technology, etc).  Jack's certainly got a great point that its' what people's perception of what they need that matters.  My parents are prime examples - they have two cars (one a large SUV, one a civic) but declined to buy a Leaf when given a great opportunity strictly because they were worried they'd need to someday both need to drive an extended distance and for whatever reason the SUV wouldn't be available (to my knowledge this has never, ever happened to them).

Anyway, back to my point.... there's always the subset of Americans who want to buy the massive F150 so they can easily bring their christmas tree home once a year, but that may be irrelevant.  What's needed is enough people who will realize that they almost never need the longer range/faster refueling.  It's probably not even that large a percentage of the driving population... 10%?  15%?  If that happens (marketing slang: inertia) then charging stations become more prevolant, every fuel station wants to have at least a couple 'charging points', chain restaurants will put in chargers (it's already sort of happening in many spots) and perceptions will change.
Melennials seem to be a convinceable demographic. They're not as into owning cars as every other generation, they have veyr low car-brand loyalty and they are less enthralled with 'car-culture' in general.

[Mntngoat]

Id like to hear from anyone that has a VW TDI  what kind of real life mileage do you get.   Is it not enough to keep you a  VW   owner or are you a principled person.  that would cut off your  nose in spite of your face?

ML

[Mntngoat]

I'll continue to drive my 7K lb stinky diesel truck my employer pays the fuel for.  Had it for 10 years and can count on one hand the number of tanks I have paid for.

ML

[Jack]

Id like to hear from anyone that has a VW TDI  what kind of real life mileage do you get.   Is it not enough to keep you a  VW   owner or are you a principled person.  that would cut off your  nose in spite of your face?

It's been a while since I drove my '98 TDI (I still need to finish fixing it), but it gets 50+ MPG. It's totally worth keeping because it can use 100% biodiesel, which means I can still be an eco-snob despite the soot, and is fun to drive (it's not stock...).

[mrpercentage]

I have a 2008 Ford Focus SES five speed manual. Original owner. It's about 10k less than a VW TDI. If I drive it nice and don't speed I will get 38-42 mpg with 87 gasoline. If I drive like an AHole and blast my AC I get 32 mpg. Did I mention I still have my original brakes at over 150k miles.

VW is in for some pain. Focus and Corolla have only gotten better. They look a lot better these days too

[gimp]

(Many people buy VWs for the 2.0 TDI, which is arguably the best engine ever built.)

Come on! The LS series? The GM 3800 series? They live basically forever, can handle massive modification and boost, and so on.

[Koreth]

Id like to hear from anyone that has a VW TDI  what kind of real life mileage do you get.   Is it not enough to keep you a  VW   owner or are you a principled person.  that would cut off your  nose in spite of your face?

ML

My 2003 Golf GLS TDI has gotten a max of 47 MPG on the highway during road trips, and is presently getting a bit over 41MPG in the city, and that's needing a new set of injector nozzles. That's only going to get better once the nozzles are replaced. I have no intention of getting rid of the car. Wtih those numbers, I can go a whole day of driving between fill-ups when on a road trip, and more than two weeks between fill-ups when commuting about the city. With the information I've seen regarding the VW emissions affair, that only applies to the Mk 6s with the 2L common-rail engines, not the earlier  Mk3, 4 or 5.

I do feel bad for those with affected cars. To be promised one thing, only to find out you were lied to is really upsetting. I just hope people don't end up screwed by the whole affair -- ending up with worse performance and economy than a Mk4 o4 5 once ECU changes are in place, being forced to surrender the car, or similar badness.

[TheOldestYoungMan]

http://www.khou.com/story/money/business/2015/09/30/harris-county-files-100-million-lawsuit-against-volkswagen/73070106/

I guess the county figures they have standing because pollution?  I don't really know.  Imagine every county doing something similar though, there are lots of counties...