Author Topic: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains  (Read 3327 times)

Wolfpack Mustachian

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VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« on: November 20, 2018, 03:54:52 AM »
I've been trying to diversify a little and thought vanguard's international index fund would be a good one to compliment vtsax for American stocks. However looking at the fund, dinner it's inception late 2010 it looks like it's gone from 26.12 to 26.72. This seems like a fairly long time for no gains. I also don't have a good cross reference like the Dow that I know of to see if it matches what really happened "internationally." Do any of your smart investors have any insights? Thanks!

RWD

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2018, 06:50:05 AM »
Don't forget dividends

HeadedWest2029

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2018, 08:12:29 AM »
Short answer, US stock market valuations have expanded much more since the great recession relative to other countries.  If anything, this would suggest now would be a good time to diversify internationally.  Watch this short time lapse...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP5h1oO_Xbo

US, and Denmark oddly have experienced some serious multiple expansion.  Whether you think that is justified is another question.  Me personally, I expect some mean reversion and I follow the Vanguard US / International asset allocation.


2Birds1Stone

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2018, 08:37:54 AM »
Yup, VXUS has actually lost me more $$ than gained since I started buying it 6 years ago.

jacoavluha

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2018, 08:43:03 AM »
what might you have said 6 or 7 years ago about the US market? 

On 12/12/2011 VTSAX closed at 30.52. On 12/4/2000 the close was 30.59.

The SP 500 ETF SPY on 12/24/2012 closed at 140.03, on 7/12/99 closed at 141.81.

VTSAX is now at 67. SPY is about 265.

It's kinda like they say about real estate. You don't make the money when you sell, you make the money when you buy.

What do you want to buy now?
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 08:47:21 AM by jacoavluha »

Rob_bob

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2018, 02:02:53 PM »
I bought the Vanguard All World EX US ETF, VEU, sometime back in 2007.  The only time I have been in the black was last Dec/Jan.

Will continue to hold for part of my international exposure.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2018, 06:45:48 PM »
Thanks you all for the input! Thanks for the video as well. I think your comments have inspired me to continue investing in international. I already have a small amount in it but will increase it on a regular basis. Thanks again and if anyone had any other feedback feel free to add on!

Radagast

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 08:38:51 PM »
See here:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/

Uncheck the dividend reinvestment box. Uncheck the inflation box. Now you have price only returns.

The S&P500 has literally done worse than go nowhere over periods as long as 40 years!

Now recheck the two boxes. The total real return of the S&P500 has done worse than 0 returns over periods of more than 20 years!

That's where a little diversification comes in handy my hard rockin' amigo. When in doubt, buy both.

jacoavluha

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2018, 09:10:52 PM »
See here:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/

Uncheck the dividend reinvestment box. Uncheck the inflation box. Now you have price only returns.

The S&P500 has literally done worse than go nowhere over periods as long as 40 years!

Now recheck the two boxes. The total real return of the S&P500 has done worse than 0 returns over periods of more than 20 years!

That's where a little diversification comes in handy my hard rockin' amigo. When in doubt, buy both.

and buy some bonds too

Radagast

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2018, 09:50:07 PM »
See here:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/

Uncheck the dividend reinvestment box. Uncheck the inflation box. Now you have price only returns.

The S&P500 has literally done worse than go nowhere over periods as long as 40 years!

Now recheck the two boxes. The total real return of the S&P500 has done worse than 0 returns over periods of more than 20 years!

That's where a little diversification comes in handy my hard rockin' amigo. When in doubt, buy both.

and buy some bonds too
4surtin

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2018, 03:39:04 AM »
You might want to take a look at portfolio visualizer next time you're wondering what happened over some past time frame.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults

According to their data, from 2000-2018 both developed and emerging markets are up:
developed markets up +70%  (but the real return is meager, +0.7%/year after inflation)
emerging markets +190%

BicycleB

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Re: VTIAX - am I missing something? 17 years+ roughly no gains
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2018, 10:30:53 AM »
VTIAX may not have grown much recently, but because the price of the stocks in it are lower than US stocks, the dividends are higher as a % of market value. Right now I think the dividend is around 3.16% for VTIAX. You could reinvest those dividends and get decent gains even if the underlying stock prices never rise.