Author Topic: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest  (Read 2448 times)

Aardvark

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50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« on: September 05, 2023, 07:46:43 AM »
I saw this cool chart today. It's something that I've been looking for for ages.



Source:https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7104504261404749824/

2sk22

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2023, 09:00:14 AM »
We need a "dry powder" thread here :-)

daverobev

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2023, 09:04:40 AM »
I watched 'Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century' last night, very interesting. And it basically correlates to this - the reason investing has done so well is because of a reversion towards inequality.

It would be much better if labour did a lot better, and capital quite a bit worse. Not nothing, I'm not saying that. But still.

Chris Pascale

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2023, 10:02:25 AM »
I was at a friend's and their BIL was telling them "sell your house because of inflation."

All I could think was, wait, what? If everything is going up in price, would you not want a house to later convert to cash, not have cash that will be worth less?

FINate

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2023, 11:04:11 AM »
Great chart.

It's an example of omission bias, related to loss aversion.

Taking action, such as investing, involves risk and due to loss aversion the potential downside is weighed more heavily than the potential upside. So lots of people feel "safer" never getting into the market.

The problem, however, is that not investing is also an action. It's a decision to stay in cash (or gold or whatever, which is a whole other discussion), which essentially signals one believes a dollar today is worth LESS than a dollar tomorrow... in other words, a deflationary environment, something the Fed will fight tooth and nail to prevent.


JAYSLOL

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2023, 07:55:57 AM »
I was at a friend's and their BIL was telling them "sell your house because of inflation."

All I could think was, wait, what? If everything is going up in price, would you not want a house to later convert to cash, not have cash that will be worth less?

I hear that kind of thing all the time from less financially literate people who’s whole investing strategy is buying gold and/or silver.  They say things like don’t be in the stock market because the dollar is going to crash.  Ok, so if the dollar is devalued, won’t that mean stock prices are headed way up?  And they say no, the economy is going to crash with the dollar.  Ok, so people will rather buy gold with their worthless money rather than the goods and services that are necessities that the companies on the stock exchange are selling?  Why?

Scandium

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2023, 08:09:49 AM »
I was at a friend's and their BIL was telling them "sell your house because of inflation."

All I could think was, wait, what? If everything is going up in price, would you not want a house to later convert to cash, not have cash that will be worth less?

I hear that kind of thing all the time from less financially literate people who’s whole investing strategy is buying gold and/or silver.  They say things like don’t be in the stock market because the dollar is going to crash.  Ok, so if the dollar is devalued, won’t that mean stock prices are headed way up?  And they say no, the economy is going to crash with the dollar.  Ok, so people will rather buy gold with their worthless money rather than the goods and services that are necessities that the companies on the stock exchange are selling?  Why?

The whole buy gold thing always seems like half an argument to me. "Buy gold because bad thing will happen", OK, but I've never quite clear on why having this gold will be any benefit when 'bad thing" happens. The fantasy scenarios listed seem a) extremely unlikely, and b) never seem to correlate with anyone wanting gold? If the economy crashes, or nuclear war; what do I do with this gold? In either case nobody would want my gold, and they don't have anything to buy it from me with anyway! So what's the point??

Louise

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2023, 08:14:14 AM »
It's funny how you kind of forget about a lot of these events (i.e. Greek debt, fiscal cliff, accounting scandals). The big things are pretty memorable (dot com bust, Great Recession). Probably because the job market was so crappy then. It was OK and even advantageous if you were able to stay employed. I knew quite a few people who lost almost everything in the GR. It was really hard to find a job, especially if you were older.

Louise

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2023, 08:18:31 AM »
The whole buy gold thing always seems like half an argument to me. "Buy gold because bad thing will happen", OK, but I've never quite clear on why having this gold will be any benefit when 'bad thing" happens. The fantasy scenarios listed seem a) extremely unlikely, and b) never seem to correlate with anyone wanting gold? If the economy crashes, or nuclear war; what do I do with this gold? In either case nobody would want my gold, and they don't have anything to buy it from me with anyway! So what's the point??

I was given some physical silver and I'm not sure what to do with it. In these scenarios, I think I'd rather just have canned food.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2023, 09:04:05 AM »
The whole buy gold thing always seems like half an argument to me. "Buy gold because bad thing will happen", OK, but I've never quite clear on why having this gold will be any benefit when 'bad thing" happens. The fantasy scenarios listed seem a) extremely unlikely, and b) never seem to correlate with anyone wanting gold? If the economy crashes, or nuclear war; what do I do with this gold? In either case nobody would want my gold, and they don't have anything to buy it from me with anyway! So what's the point??

I was given some physical silver and I'm not sure what to do with it. In these scenarios, I think I'd rather just have canned food.

I had a small silver coin I received as a gift years ago and I just sold it on eBay.

I did buy some gold as a dumb 18-year-old. At that time it was $350/oz and when I went to sell it a year or so later it was up to $450/oz. However, because I fell for the sales pitch of buying some foreign gold coins (Swiss Francs I think) - not just straight bullion or US eagles, the spread basically wiped out most of the profits. Fortunately I reinvested it in financial stocks in the mid 2000s, so that worked out great a few years later when most of those companies dropped 70-80% and never recovered. At least it taught me an important lesson about just sticking with a simple index fund and not trying to gamble with individual stocks or alternative assets.

Hemlocks

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2023, 10:06:55 AM »
This is a great chart, helpful to stay the course during these seemingly turbulent times.

On this topic, I'm 41, have a young baby, and recently stopped working (possibly FIRE, possibly just taking a break depending on a few factors). It feels like things are particularly bad right now relative to other time periods in the past ~100 years. Though, I'm also trying to be realistic that maybe it's just my age and situation in life that has me feeling this way. Interested in other opinions. 

Dicey

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2023, 10:24:59 AM »
This should be cross posted on the Investment Order sticky. Thanks!

ChpBstrd

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2023, 10:31:11 AM »
The whole buy gold thing always seems like half an argument to me. "Buy gold because bad thing will happen", OK, but I've never quite clear on why having this gold will be any benefit when 'bad thing" happens. The fantasy scenarios listed seem a) extremely unlikely, and b) never seem to correlate with anyone wanting gold? If the economy crashes, or nuclear war; what do I do with this gold? In either case nobody would want my gold, and they don't have anything to buy it from me with anyway! So what's the point??
I was given some physical silver and I'm not sure what to do with it. In these scenarios, I think I'd rather just have canned food.
I had a small silver coin I received as a gift years ago and I just sold it on eBay.

I did buy some gold as a dumb 18-year-old. At that time it was $350/oz and when I went to sell it a year or so later it was up to $450/oz. However, because I fell for the sales pitch of buying some foreign gold coins (Swiss Francs I think) - not just straight bullion or US eagles, the spread basically wiped out most of the profits. Fortunately I reinvested it in financial stocks in the mid 2000s, so that worked out great a few years later when most of those companies dropped 70-80% and never recovered. At least it taught me an important lesson about just sticking with a simple index fund and not trying to gamble with individual stocks or alternative assets.
I have a vague memory of being a young child visiting my grandparents' house with family in the 1980s and grandpa wheels out a giant silver brick on a dolly. I had no idea about investments at the time of course, but the memory of that silver brick haunts me today. First of all, grandpa probably lost a chunk of change when the Hunt brothers' cornering of the market collapsed. Second, the time when that silver brick looked like a good investment was actually the best time in history to have invested in the stock market - tech stocks in particular. I was witnessing history in that moment - my grandfather failing to establish generational wealth.

Years later as I reached adulthood, I would routinely ask grandpa what the stock market would do next, given the news of the day. He always and only said "it'll go back up". He learned his lesson and held Wal-Mart through the 90s.   

harvestbook

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2023, 08:11:53 AM »
This is a great chart, helpful to stay the course during these seemingly turbulent times.

On this topic, I'm 41, have a young baby, and recently stopped working (possibly FIRE, possibly just taking a break depending on a few factors). It feels like things are particularly bad right now relative to other time periods in the past ~100 years. Though, I'm also trying to be realistic that maybe it's just my age and situation in life that has me feeling this way. Interested in other opinions.

Probably having a baby is the entirety of the cause!

I am always fascinated by this type of take. Apparently nearly two-thirds of the US thinks the economy is failing, yet the stock market is doing well overall and is in a bull market, unemployment is incredibly low, cash earns interest now, and wages are rising.

Sure, housing is tight and mortgage rates "seem" high (recency bias, as they are still near or below historic averages). Some people judge the economy solely on gas prices, somehow forgetting gas prices were higher nearly 20 years ago. Some people still believe inflation is killing us when it's back to historic ranges. My own hunch is there's a deep angst in the zeitgeist because we know we've created a climate crisis and a helpless sense of a ticking clock that's making us all a bit mad, and in the US a fear that the American century is nearing its end and other powers are rising.

You could believe things were "particularly bad" if you pay attention to political theater, but it sure looks to me like people's behavior is saying the exact opposite--they are spending like crazy and still investing. The truth is we're so loaded with biases that we need to look at charts like these to remind us that the world hasn't ended yet despite all the noise. I understand selling doom and fear is a time-tested business model, but you don't have to buy into it.

I don't value opinions much, even my own opinion, only experience. My experience says things usually work out and it pays to be an optimist.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2023, 08:21:37 AM by harvestbook »

theolympians

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Re: 50 years of good reasons NOT to invest
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2023, 07:07:31 AM »
It feels particularly bad because we say things are bad. I've come to the conclusion we are in an apocalyptic age. Not that an apocalypse is coming, we just look for reasons to say an apocalypse is. It doesn't matter the good news, most media looks for the bad and hypes it. In the USA, even most of the poorest live better than any king ever has.

With that, wages have stagnated, the man is looking to squeeze people more, the politicos of both east and west appear to be looking for a great war, "the climate" etc.

I recommend turning off social media, except this site (LOL), and ditching cable. Get a second job if money is tight. I currently live in the NW of USA (though will move to a cheaper state next year), plenty of jobs here.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!