Author Topic: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?  (Read 12289 times)

dundee

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 37
Fellow Mustachians,

I am looking to invest some money in individual stocks and would like to crowd source some information. I like to find value stocks that have decent dividends and fair upside potential. Given current stock market, I have been thinking of investing in CAT and MAT as they both seem to have fairly low P/E and good dividend.

I can google screen stock screen and find something, but, I would like to know from others if there are stocks that you prefer and why?

I invest in ETF's and Index funds, but, for now, I want to be an opportunist to find some good bargains. Hopefully this discussion will generate information that others will find useful as well.

Thank you.

Aphalite

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 425
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2015, 02:48:34 PM »
Caterpillar is in a hard industry - anything that both depends on good general economic health AND has the hurdle of having to commit a lot of free cash flow to grow (maintaining, building, and buying new machinery) puts you at a severe disadvantage.

I don't know enough about Mattel to comment

My personal industries to look through are consumer staples, healthcare, and oil. I tend to look for higher returns on equity, good/increasing market share, and brand awareness. I have pretty huge losses this year investing in oil majors so far but I'm continuing to contribute capital through the downturn as eventually supplies will decrease and prices will go back up.

Consumer staples are an attractive choice because companies with brand equity have shown the ability to consistently increase sales through a combination of price increases, new product launches, and organic unit sale growth. I include "sin" stocks in the category, tobacco has delviered 20%+ returns for 50+ years and I don't see any signs of participation slowing on a global basis (previously I consistently held a bias against such industries, believing that people would come to their senses and users/customers would eventually decrease, taking sales with them, but all of the data I have examined has convinced me that I'm wrong, and people will continue to willingly kill themselves - if its against your moral compass, that's fine, but my view is that the decision of whether or not I buy stock has no effect whatsoever, positive or negative, on the companies themselves since the float is already out in the market)

Healthcare will continue to crush the market as a whole as long as we have the current healthcare system that we do. Drugs are marked up significantly from production costs (tho you have to take years of R&D expense before getting wealthy). This is somewhat of a bet that Congress will never get it together enough to create fair and sensible healthcare legislation and policies, but even if we adopt European/Canadian policy, healthcare will always be a major factor as the population starts to age further.

brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2015, 03:58:28 PM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

Aphalite

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 425
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2015, 04:04:46 PM »
When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

When interest rates rise, stock prices fall. Let's say today you're holding a bond paying out 2% interest, the risk premium of 3% on stocks is applied to the market, resulting in a 5% "payout" or 20 P/E on the overall market. Fast forward a year and interest rates have been raised, now a bond is paying out 3% interest. Now to get a risk premium of 3% or 6% "payout", the market P/E would need to decrease to ~16, which is a 20 % paper loss in the short term

Of course this is a hyper simplified illustration, but generally, when interest rates rise, stocks will fall - it could be that a rise in interest rate is a signal that the general economy has started to improve, and inflation has come back, that would mean that earnings are starting to increase - but that's a second order effect, a forced rise in interest rates holding all other factors constant doesn't help stocks at all

brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2015, 04:10:35 PM »
When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

When interest rates rise, stock prices fall. Let's say today you're holding a bond paying out 2% interest, the risk premium of 3% on stocks is applied to the market, resulting in a 5% "payout" or 20 P/E on the overall market. Fast forward a year and interest rates have been raised, now a bond is paying out 3% interest. Now to get a risk premium of 3% or 6% "payout", the market P/E would need to decrease to ~16, which is a 20 % paper loss in the short term

Of course this is a hyper simplified illustration, but generally, when interest rates rise, stocks will fall - it could be that a rise in interest rate is a signal that the general economy has started to improve, and inflation has come back, that would mean that earnings are starting to increase - but that's a second order effect, a forced rise in interest rates holding all other factors constant doesn't help stocks at all
In theory and history they should.  Last month when they didn't raise the rates  stocks should have rallied but they took a nose dive.  The next round of raising the rates WILL push stocks even higher.

Thegoblinchief

  • Guest
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2015, 05:02:28 PM »
I wouldn't touch Caterpillar with a 10 foot pole, based on what I hear from a family member that works there.

Jeremy E.

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1946
  • Location: Lewiston, ID
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2015, 05:24:41 PM »
I thought about doing this a little bit over a year ago and made a spreadsheet with 13 choices (1 of them I just thought was a winner, not technically a dividend stock). I monitored my investments for a year and found out almost all of them did significantly worse than the market. Sure they might of had slightly higher dividends, but not enough to make up for the difference. Here is my excel sprdsht.

ridonkulous52

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2015, 05:31:05 PM »
Some of the best values out there in my opinion are in the financials and energy sector.  Stocks like CVX, NOV, XOM, KMI, OKE, and RDS.B look like great energy values.  Financials I like TROW, BEN, ACE, TRV, HCP (REIT), OHI (REIT) and WPC (REIT).  Then there are the usual suspects when it comes to dividend stocks such as PM, JNJ, WFC, EMR, KO, PEP, UNP (love railroads!), UL, T and PG.  I also love SBUX, GILD, AMGN,  AAPL and DIS, who I think will be future dividend aristocrats.  This is just a portion of my long watch list :). 

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Location: Emmaus, PA
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2015, 07:57:48 PM »
PPL is a regulated utility paying a 4.6% dividend. I don't do individual stocks anymore so I won't be putting my money on it.

badger1988

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 141
  • Age: 36
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2015, 08:20:00 PM »
I wouldn't touch Caterpillar with a 10 foot pole, based on what I hear from a family member that works there.

As a Caterpillar employee myself...I'll just say I don't own any company stock and don't plan to buy any anytime soon. I'd recommend doing some research about the current/projected economic climate for the industries we serve before considering any further.

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2015, 09:23:14 PM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

1) The Fed is never raising and you're delusional to think they will.
2) Stocks move in the exact opposite direction you're describing with a rate hike.

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2015, 09:26:10 PM »
I wouldn't touch Caterpillar with a 10 foot pole, based on what I hear from a family member that works there.

Bingo! CAT is an economic bellwether and the global economy is tanking.

brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2015, 04:36:41 AM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

1) The Fed is never raising and you're delusional to think they will.
2) Stocks move in the exact opposite direction you're describing with a rate hike.

1)  A rate hike will be coming before the end of the year...you're delusional to think they will never raise interest rates
2) Stocks will rally with this news...not typical but it will. 
3) I will bump this thread when the feds raise the interest rate and the DOW is up >300 points that day

Thegoblinchief

  • Guest
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2015, 06:55:02 AM »
I wouldn't touch Caterpillar with a 10 foot pole, based on what I hear from a family member that works there.

Caterpillar probably made a mistake purchasing Bucyrus. And if that wasn't the mistake, it was their "integration" of that company.

Yup. My family member is on the former Bucyrus side and the stories I hear are just epic clusterfucks, and I haven't even heard half the stories he's told my more business-inclined father and brother.

economist

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 59
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2015, 07:06:16 AM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

1) The Fed is never raising and you're delusional to think they will.
2) Stocks move in the exact opposite direction you're describing with a rate hike.

1)  A rate hike will be coming before the end of the year...you're delusional to think they will never raise interest rates
2) Stocks will rally with this news...not typical but it will. 
3) I will bump this thread when the feds raise the interest rate and the DOW is up >300 points that day

Please also post how much you made trading options to take maximum advantage of the stock move you seem certain will take place. :)

Interest rates are a big factor for stocks, but not the ONLY factor. If we get some awesome/terrible economic data on the same day the Fed raises rates/keeps rates the same, then the impact of the rate decision could be totally overshadowed. You could be totally right on the impact of the rate change, but wrong on the direction stocks move that day/week/month.

On the original topic, if I were a dividend investor or stock picker (I am neither) I'd be looking at energy, based on the belief that the overall trend of millions of people in the developing world getting cars will eventually drive oil prices back up. But if Tesla comes out with a 20k electric car, oil could drop to almost zero. Not likely in the near future, but in ten or twenty years anything is possible.

Aphalite

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 425
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2015, 07:28:48 AM »
On the original topic, if I were a dividend investor or stock picker (I am neither) I'd be looking at energy, based on the belief that the overall trend of millions of people in the developing world getting cars will eventually drive oil prices back up. But if Tesla comes out with a 20k electric car, oil could drop to almost zero. Not likely in the near future, but in ten or twenty years anything is possible.

I agree with most of what you said, but if you're saying that millions of people in the DEVELOPING world will get cars, then it doesn't make sense that a 20k car would drop oil to zero - it will take several decades before the developing world has enough disposable income to spend on high end electric cars, don't you think? In the meantime, I do agree with you that in 10 or 20 years, in the DEVELOPED world, we'll see more and more electric cars, but as far as the energy companies, I don't think the majority of their income streams will be from oil 20 years from now either. They have the money to buy as many solar/wind/whatever flavor of the month energy generating companies they want, but right now the focus is still on hydrocarbons because of the margins - once technology catches up, I can't really see a scenario where solar isn't our main source of energy (but like you said could be 20+ years from now)

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2015, 10:46:13 AM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

1) The Fed is never raising and you're delusional to think they will.
2) Stocks move in the exact opposite direction you're describing with a rate hike.

1)  A rate hike will be coming before the end of the year...you're delusional to think they will never raise interest rates
2) Stocks will rally with this news...not typical but it will. 
3) I will bump this thread when the feds raise the interest rate and the DOW is up >300 points that day

1) Curious what you're seeing in the economy to suggest a rate hike this year? 
2) Why will stocks rise from near all time highs with a rate hike?

Left

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1157
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2015, 12:51:18 PM »
i like crackle barrel and at&t... that said, i dont invest in any single company outside of snh because mmm mentioned it in his reit post and i figured i would give it a shot. so far i dont mind it but i wouldnt get more since a total stock is just better for me

my "dividend" paying holding is just pfxf... because it is mostly reits and utilities. but it is a preferred stock, if you have issues with them. i have 5%? in it, not a whole lot. it was from before i went full index and just kept it because it did well enough for what i wanted that i didnt feel like selling
« Last Edit: October 10, 2015, 12:55:24 PM by eyem »

brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2015, 09:26:59 PM »
Stocks to buy for life with good dividends: Johnson and Johnson, General Mills, Microsoft and Wells Fargo.  When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

1) The Fed is never raising and you're delusional to think they will.
2) Stocks move in the exact opposite direction you're describing with a rate hike.

1)  A rate hike will be coming before the end of the year...you're delusional to think they will never raise interest rates
2) Stocks will rally with this news...not typical but it will. 
3) I will bump this thread when the feds raise the interest rate and the DOW is up >300 points that day

1) Curious what you're seeing in the economy to suggest a rate hike this year? 
2) Why will stocks rise from near all time highs with a rate hike?

1) I do own individual stocks but am heavily invested in Vanguard Funds.  We really need a rate hike soon here...it's a sign of a good, strong economy.
2)  The interest rate has been almost 0 for way tooo long.  The economy needs a little more wiggle room to lower it again for when shit hits the fan (insert popped bubble here...my guess would be student loan debt).
3) Fuck China
4) Cheap oil...and were literally eating those savings at restaurants
5) Buy VHT...anything healthcare related will make you money. 
6)  We're cool with Russia now...Obama let Putin handle Syria and in return we'll forget about that whole Ukrainian invasion thing.
7) Greece is cool now too...they can withdraw their monies from the banks.
8) After singles day in China,11/11, Asian markets will surge based on record breaking consumerism.
9) China is good = the world is good = .25 increase of the Feds rates = strong US economy = Merica Fuck yea! 

This is my story.  I am no expert but do play one in real life :-)

Financial.Velociraptor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Houston TX
  • Devour your prey raptors!
    • Living Universe Foundation

Left

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1157
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2015, 08:55:30 PM »
3) Fuck China

I literal LOL.
but that was my retirement plan, the democratic China anyways... (taiwan)

doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 380
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2015, 12:06:06 PM »
If you're looking for some "fortress" companies that can afford to pay dividends through all economic conditions and operate in straightforward economic sectors, I'd suggest Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, and Procter and Gamble to start.  All have 50+ year streaks of annual dividend raises, have current yields of 3% or higher, and by purchasing all 3, you end up with a dividend each month due to the staggered quarterly dividend schedules of the 3 companies.

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2015, 03:04:59 PM »

1) I do own individual stocks but am heavily invested in Vanguard Funds.  We really need a rate hike soon here...it's a sign of a good, strong economy.
2)  The interest rate has been almost 0 for way tooo long.  The economy needs a little more wiggle room to lower it again for when shit hits the fan (insert popped bubble here...my guess would be student loan debt).
3) Fuck China
4) Cheap oil...and were literally eating those savings at restaurants
5) Buy VHT...anything healthcare related will make you money. 
6)  We're cool with Russia now...Obama let Putin handle Syria and in return we'll forget about that whole Ukrainian invasion thing.
7) Greece is cool now too...they can withdraw their monies from the banks.
8) After singles day in China,11/11, Asian markets will surge based on record breaking consumerism.
9) China is good = the world is good = .25 increase of the Feds rates = strong US economy = Merica Fuck yea! 

This is my story.  I am no expert but do play one in real life :-)

Wow. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkodTydUR0E completely summarizes my thoughts on your response.

brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2015, 04:36:44 PM »

1) I do own individual stocks but am heavily invested in Vanguard Funds.  We really need a rate hike soon here...it's a sign of a good, strong economy.
2)  The interest rate has been almost 0 for way tooo long.  The economy needs a little more wiggle room to lower it again for when shit hits the fan (insert popped bubble here...my guess would be student loan debt).
3) Fuck China
4) Cheap oil...and were literally eating those savings at restaurants
5) Buy VHT...anything healthcare related will make you money. 
6)  We're cool with Russia now...Obama let Putin handle Syria and in return we'll forget about that whole Ukrainian invasion thing.
7) Greece is cool now too...they can withdraw their monies from the banks.
8) After singles day in China,11/11, Asian markets will surge based on record breaking consumerism.
9) China is good = the world is good = .25 increase of the Feds rates = strong US economy = Merica Fuck yea! 

This is my story.  I am no expert but do play one in real life :-)

Wow. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkodTydUR0E completely summarizes my thoughts on your response.

Haha...that did make me chuckle!  But seriously, your response is a link?  I know you can do better than that!  Use your words!

Urchina

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 198
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2015, 05:36:25 PM »
Vanguard has at least three funds that might be worth looking at:
VDIGX
VDIGX
VHDYX

Two are index funds; the first is a managed fund.







brandino29

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 327
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2015, 09:26:00 PM »
The market is definitely going down.  Some time. It will also go back up.msome time. It'll go back down again, and some time, sooner or later, it'll go back waaaay down. Maybe even to 6,000 again. Then it'll go up. Maybe way up, maybe even to 20,000.  Fed interests will change. Economies around the world will surge and then sputter. Some will collapse. Some will rebound.

And the point...nobody is gonna predict any of it.

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2015, 10:50:36 PM »
The market is definitely going down.  Some time. It will also go back up.msome time. It'll go back down again, and some time, sooner or later, it'll go back waaaay down. Maybe even to 6,000 again. Then it'll go up. Maybe way up, maybe even to 20,000.  Fed interests will change. Economies around the world will surge and then sputter. Some will collapse. Some will rebound.

And the point...nobody is gonna predict any of it.

Well, some people are going to predict it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXsXt5zicVM

Drifterrider

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1118
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2015, 06:34:50 AM »
I hold BP, GE and F.  I got attached to my BAC and should have sold at $18 but held too long.  Still, I'm up $10 per share.  Finally sold (their dividend was crap) and bought more BP the day BP dropped below $30.

I also hold FNMA.  I'm betting on the class action lawsuit(s) being productive.


index

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 655
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2015, 11:20:40 AM »
You shouldn't buy into a company based on dividend yield and PE. You are looking at the wrong metrics. You are much better off buying a company that can reinvest in itself instead of paying you a double taxed share of earnings.

The recommendations for oil companies are a bet on a price recovery in oil. There is no guaranty that is going to happen. XOM is much more expensive now than it was when oil was $100+. A good rule of thumb is to never buy commodity producers.

With all that said. These are the companies I like that have a decent divided:

DEO, AXP, BAH, ECL, and FAST   

doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 380
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2015, 10:21:22 AM »
You shouldn't buy into a company based on dividend yield and PE. You are looking at the wrong metrics. You are much better off buying a company that can reinvest in itself instead of paying you a double taxed share of earnings.

This is a great statement, although I would add that dividend-paying equities have served me quite well in my portfolio mostly due to investing in companies that generate enough FCF to BOTH re-invest and pay out dividends to shareholders.  I know many people on these boards adhere to index investing, but I've managed to outperform the "base" index (S&P 500 TR) handily over the long term by buying and holding stock in companies that have an extreme ability to generate FCF without much in the way of onerous leverage (so I typically ignore PE, yield, etc).

Bearded Man

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1137
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #30 on: October 25, 2015, 10:54:39 PM »
When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

When interest rates rise, stock prices fall. Let's say today you're holding a bond paying out 2% interest, the risk premium of 3% on stocks is applied to the market, resulting in a 5% "payout" or 20 P/E on the overall market. Fast forward a year and interest rates have been raised, now a bond is paying out 3% interest. Now to get a risk premium of 3% or 6% "payout", the market P/E would need to decrease to ~16, which is a 20 % paper loss in the short term

Of course this is a hyper simplified illustration, but generally, when interest rates rise, stocks will fall - it could be that a rise in interest rate is a signal that the general economy has started to improve, and inflation has come back, that would mean that earnings are starting to increase - but that's a second order effect, a forced rise in interest rates holding all other factors constant doesn't help stocks at all

I agree with this guy.

comp@26

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 8
  • Age: 34
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2015, 07:28:01 PM »
As a small retail investor you have a major advantage. Size!
Why are you spending your time trying to find bargains in the 40 billion market cap neighbourhood?
I think you should focus on smaller underfollowed companies.
Also personally I don’t care much about the great companies.
These are most of the time fairly valued.
Finally I don’t mind high market valuations, regarding the general market, when and if I can buy a dollar for forty cents.
Although a market crash would be really sweet.
Anyway that’s how I see it as Jean Paul Getty would have said!

doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 380
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2015, 02:44:52 PM »
When the Feds raise rates (very soon) most stocks are going to rally.

When interest rates rise, stock prices fall. Let's say today you're holding a bond paying out 2% interest, the risk premium of 3% on stocks is applied to the market, resulting in a 5% "payout" or 20 P/E on the overall market. Fast forward a year and interest rates have been raised, now a bond is paying out 3% interest. Now to get a risk premium of 3% or 6% "payout", the market P/E would need to decrease to ~16, which is a 20 % paper loss in the short term

Of course this is a hyper simplified illustration, but generally, when interest rates rise, stocks will fall - it could be that a rise in interest rate is a signal that the general economy has started to improve, and inflation has come back, that would mean that earnings are starting to increase - but that's a second order effect, a forced rise in interest rates holding all other factors constant doesn't help stocks at all

Just because interest rates rise, doesn't mean stock prices fall.  BMO did some pretty interesting research showing that on average, stocks in the S&P 500 have increased 6.4% during the first year after the tightening cycle begins, and almost 21% through the duration of the tightening cycle.


doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 380
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2015, 02:47:15 PM »
And here's another chart showing data before pre-1980s:


OkieStache

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 33
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2015, 03:08:12 PM »
If you're looking for some "fortress" companies that can afford to pay dividends through all economic conditions and operate in straightforward economic sectors, I'd suggest Coca Cola, Johnson & Johnson, and Procter and Gamble to start.  All have 50+ year streaks of annual dividend raises, have current yields of 3% or higher, and by purchasing all 3, you end up with a dividend each month due to the staggered quarterly dividend schedules of the 3 companies.
KO is pretty solid:  http://www.coca-colacompany.com/investors/stock-history/investors-info-dividends/

younggunner

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 59
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2015, 11:45:34 AM »
KO, WFC, JNJ, PG.. all great companies with consistent dividend growth..

I also like BA, GE, T, VZ

all high yield

Frugal D

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 235
  • Age: 38
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2015, 12:27:19 PM »
Brotatochip, you must be feeling pretty good about that December rate hike, eh?




brotatochip

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2015, 07:00:36 AM »
Brotatochip, you must be feeling pretty good about that December rate hike, eh?

Indeed! 

sisto

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1084
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Sacramento, CA
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #38 on: December 16, 2015, 11:45:51 AM »
Nice prediction Brotatochip! Well done!

Drifterrider

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1118
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #39 on: December 17, 2015, 07:27:46 AM »
I predict another .25 rise with the next six months.  I think the bump up will spark spending in the "better get it now before the rates go up again" mentality.  Avoid the Christmas rush !!!

I bought more BP shares on Monday using the "Texas Hold 'em" approach.  We shall see if I'm right.

« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 07:30:11 AM by Drifterrider »

Vee2001

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Value stocks with good Dividend - example Caterpilar, Mattel - others?
« Reply #40 on: December 17, 2015, 08:33:50 PM »
I bought more BP shares on Monday using the "Texas Hold 'em" approach.  We shall see if I'm right.

I'm right there with you.  Sitting on 1,000 shares (bought ~$30) and nine July 16 $34 Call options (gambling, I know).  If oil would just stop crashing....