As for the US having the reserve currency, the fiat dollar is getting pretty old by historical standards, and will eventually be replaced just like the pound and franc were. It may not happen this week, or even this decade, but it will almost certainly happen within our lifetimes. Failing to plan for this is an economic risk which is easily avoided if you're willing to learn a bit of history rather than bury your head in the sand.
With change comes opportunity for the observant, or it can leave you buried like a resident of Vesuvius if one fails to heed the rumblings of the mountain.
I'm interested in hearing more about your hypothesis. The dollar is so far ahead of other currencies that it's replacement would take a long time and would be very gradual. If it were to take a long time, then it seems like there would be a likely contender today. I don't current see that. What do you envision replacing it?
Hopefully this does not come off as argumentative or dismissive. I'm legitimately interested in hearing your opinion.
Also, what would you do to hedge?
The change, IMHO, would most likely come about overnight as the result of an economic meltdown. Calls have been made for an international currency, special drawing rights, etc., as a replacement. I wouldn't be surprised to see an international hard currency backed by a basket of goods, which collects fiat debt in real wealth, then morphs into a soft currency to repeat the cycle of inflation/deflation.
I don't know the future more than anyone here, but do find it hard to believe that the US will be able continue things unchanged for the rest of my life.
How to hedge is anyone's guess. I favor hard assets (real estate, tools, etc.) that can't be electronically devalued in a currency conversion. Wealth that I can't see or touch just doesn't seem real to me.
Your philosophy of monetary policy is actually quite intuitive. It does not take much understanding of anything to realize that if there is more money, without more resources, money becomes less valuable.
Unfortunately this simplistic model of monetary policy simply doesn't seem to conform to reality. .
When judging different models, the simplest way to tell which model is most valid is to test the predictive capability of the various models.
The Austrians, conservatives, and freshwater economists have been predicting massive inflation since the Fed liberalized their monetary policy in 2009.
The neo-Keynesians, like Krugman, have been insisting that there would not be inflationary pressures in such in liquidity crisis.
And the scoreboard says: record low inflation. So who's model is correct?
In other words just because something is intuitive, does not mean that it's useful.
And if your intuition leads you to believe that investing in hard assets like land ,guns, ammo, and gold, is the way to protect your wealth, feel free to ignore all the data up to this point, which suggests that this is not the smartest way to invest your money. You will feel safer, but your fortune, in fact, will probably be less safe.