The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: CheapskateWife on August 12, 2016, 08:07:55 AM
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So the subject pretty much sums it up. Wondering if a fall is coming, and if I couldn't protect my recent growth by moving more of my current holdings into the G fund until after a new bottom. Anybody else considering this as a strategy? My current allocation is 100% L2040 which is:
G 20.43%
F 5.57%
C 39.55%
S 12.25%
I 22%
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No, because that's stupid: the market is often at "all-time highs," and a fall is always "coming."
Don't try to time the market. Statistically, you will almost certainly fuck it up and come out behind compared to leaving your asset allocation alone.
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As in, time the market? Hell no.
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Hadn't really thought about it as timing the market but I suppose you are both right.
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Remember, if you have access to TSP, you likely have a pension. Your pension is a HUGE guaranteed return so you can afford to take some risks with stocks.
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In the accumulation stage of retirement saving, I wouldn't allocate any of my TSP funds to the G fund. If stock markets correct (which they will from time to time), just ignore the panic and noise and keep investing through it and you'll come out just fine.
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Without more info, hard to say what you should do. But without resorting to market timing per se, sometimes market highs can be a good time to reassess your risk tolerance.
If you feel nervous all the time or are nearing retirement, and feel like you need a lower risk portfolio, then make a permanent change to your asset allocation. But don't trade in and out, especially if you have a long time horizon. Te L2040 is basically 25% bonds. So if you want a somewhat lower risk fund, move to the L2030 which is 35% bonds. Or, as some mention, make your own portfolio so you can rebalance yourself. But if you are young or don't have a big balance yet, your positions are likely reasonable.
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I dumped everything the session before the Brexit vote results and went to 100% G and F. $300k worth. Bought 1/2 back the following Tuesday and most of the rest a couple weeks later. Made about 6% on the moves, or $18k.
But that was the result of a known event. The market priced in a Remain vote, which I believe would have caused a small "sell the news" decline. The Leave vote was a shock--er mere blip in hindsight--that I was able to profit from.
I don't see any known events in the near future. At least not until the presidential election. In the meantime, interest rates are low, the US is at peace, and the regulators are paper tigers.
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Luck hits everyone. So does bad luck. Staying the course is, on average (actually, far above it), wiser:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/worried-about-the-stock-market-whatever-you-do-dont-sell/
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Absolutely not. I'm at 80% C, 20% S, and I don't plan on changing it ever. When I'm finally done, I'll just roll it over to Vanguard.
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I did make a small move toward the G fund this summer.
Previously I was:
60% C
20% S
20% I
Now I am:
55% C
20% S
15% I
10% G
This small G Fund allocation represents my entire bond exposure. Everything I have in Vanguard Roth IRA and Brokerage is VTSAX and VTIAX. Total, I think I'm sitting around 98% Stock and 2% Bond now. I'm still 12 years from possible retirement from active duty. The change was a result of finally writing an IPS, not trying to anticipate some major correction.