Author Topic: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory  (Read 1780 times)

ILikeDividends

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Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« on: December 24, 2018, 04:34:49 PM »
White House tweets, "Mission accomplished!"  Santa Claus declined to comment on the meeting.  Film at eleven.

« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 04:50:23 PM by ILikeDividends »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2018, 09:36:23 PM »
I know it's a sign of investor immaturity to proclaim "this time is different!" but this time is unique because we now have an overconfident, semi-delusional narcissist at the helm with a known aversion to facts, expertise, and competent people.

The Federal Reserve, Congress, the FDIC, the SEC, the Treasury - even if they all did their jobs flawlessly you'd still have Trumpy fucking it up because ONLY HE can save us and he must prove this so that we will finally adore him.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2018, 09:50:56 PM »
I know it's a sign of investor immaturity to proclaim "this time is different!" but this time is unique because we now have an overconfident, semi-delusional narcissist at the helm with a known aversion to facts, expertise, and competent people.

The Federal Reserve, Congress, the FDIC, the SEC, the Treasury - even if they all did their jobs flawlessly you'd still have Trumpy fucking it up because ONLY HE can save us and he must prove this so that we will finally adore him.
Text set in bold by me.

A narcissist doesn't possess the cognitive capacity to even imagine that you might not adore him already.

My intention wasn't to make this a red vs blue thread.  With that caveat in place, I am truly frightened by what a narcissist with his finger on "the button" might be capable of in order to assert his authority.

ETA: My brother is also truly a certifiable narcissist; whom my mother (our mother) had to file a Domestic Violence Restraining Order against.  Unfortunately, I do have some prior personal experience in the matters unfolding in the White House, and they frighten me deeply.  Unsurprisingly, my brother believes Trump literally walks on water, and can do no wrong.  God help you if my brother hears you disagree with that viewpoint.

All you really need to do in order to enrage a narcissist is to express a different point of view about pretty much anything at all.  Even if your point of view is only different at the margins, the response can vary from mild to extreme; there are no limits to what can happen after that.  Even just interrupting a narcissist's monologue in an attempt to convert it into an actual dialog can produce an extremely unpleasant result.

A narcissist always resorts to abuse, to whatever degree is necessary, in order to exert or reclaim unchallenged authority.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 01:23:58 AM by ILikeDividends »

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2018, 01:35:25 AM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".

Blueberries

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2018, 06:58:37 PM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".

No one really knows all the reasons for a bear, but plenty of viable reasons exist and they don't rest solely on Trump's tweets.  However, when you have the leader of the country tweeting unprofessional and contradictory information, it is bound to cause movement.  The people moving the market are human, with their own emotions, thoughts, feelings, etc.  They typically have to work beyond acting emotionally to be successful, but not all do and no one is perfect.  Just as an example, this bear may have started with selling into strength, could have snowballed on Apple's drop, and continued for 750 different reasons.  None of that might be true, too.  To suggest Trump is solely responsible is very likely incorrect, but to say no one is panicked by Trump's actions is also likely incorrect.


Classical_Liberal

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #5 on: December 25, 2018, 07:16:29 PM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".

No one really knows all the reasons for a bear, but plenty of viable reasons exist and they don't rest solely on Trump's tweets. 

Fund managers are very limited in scope to what they can buy and sell because of the shear volume and because of the stated purpose of the fund.  Prices are set by active investors, remember the last trade price is the quoted value. That being siad, look what has happened to margin debt since ZIRP.

An individual active investor who has been riding low margin rates and highflying tech stocks suddenly gets a call.  Now they have to sell the previously overvalued tech stock and their more quality issues to cover the call. 

That's my theory :)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #6 on: December 25, 2018, 07:24:14 PM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".

No one really knows all the reasons for a bear, but plenty of viable reasons exist and they don't rest solely on Trump's tweets.  However, when you have the leader of the country tweeting unprofessional and contradictory information, it is bound to cause movement.  The people moving the market are human, with their own emotions, thoughts, feelings, etc.  They typically have to work beyond acting emotionally to be successful, but not all do and no one is perfect.  Just as an example, this bear may have started with selling into strength, could have snowballed on Apple's drop, and continued for 750 different reasons.  None of that might be true, too.  To suggest Trump is solely responsible is very likely incorrect, but to say no one is panicked by Trump's actions is also likely incorrect.

I agree. Negative perceptions about the competence and, quite frankly*, mental health of the executive leadership are bound to affect stock prices. It means economic disruptions (tariffs) and mistakes (applying political pressure on the federal reserve to set politically convenient interest rates) are more likely. Even so, this is just one factor. Many quantitative recession indicators are flashing red too. The lack of competent leadership makes the situation a bit scarier. Could the great depression have been just a big recession if the government hadn't made things worse with tariffs, Andrew Mellon's "liquidate everything" philosophy, and other populist policies?

*not dissing on the tens of millions of people struggling with personality disorders, etc. just saying the NPD shoe fits and the implications for organizational performance are real. For more info: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder

RickCerone

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2018, 08:19:54 PM »
So Trump tweets a ton and acts like a narcissist.   Is that any different than November 2016 to September 2018 when the market marched up, up, up?

marty998

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #8 on: December 25, 2018, 08:35:08 PM »
So Trump tweets a ton and acts like a narcissist.   Is that any different than November 2016 to September 2018 when the market marched up, up, up?

Convening the Plunge Protection Team suggests to me there is something going on that we are not being told about.

It's exactly when the administrators of a football club come out and says "we have full confidence in the coach". You know shit is hitting the fan behind the scenes.


MaaS

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2018, 09:11:55 PM »
So Trump tweets a ton and acts like a narcissist.   Is that any different than November 2016 to September 2018 when the market marched up, up, up?

Convening the Plunge Protection Team suggests to me there is something going on that we are not being told about.

It's exactly when the administrators of a football club come out and says "we have full confidence in the coach". You know shit is hitting the fan behind the scenes.

There's also the distinct possibility that a president who cares deeply about market returns is just trying to get back to all-time highs for his ego's sake.

It's possible another crisis is occurring behind the scenes but far from a sure thing.

PDXTabs

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2018, 09:25:29 PM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".

When he tweets threatening things about the independence of the Federal Reserve and or trade wars, absolutely.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2018, 09:38:04 PM »
Does any rational personal believe that anyone or any hedge fund manager sold off their stocks because "Trump tweeted"? This is perhaps the most absurd thing that the media has suggested in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".
Nope.  That he tweets doesn't (or shouldn't) scare anyone.  It's what he tweets that is scary.  Furthermore, his actions don't indicate that he even realizes a tweet becomes a permanent public record once he tweets it.  It's as if he believes a new tweet is all that is needed to erase a previously diametrically opposing tweet from the public record (therefore erasing it from history and the public's memory as well).

Does any rational person believe that history can be changed simply by later ignoring that it ever happened?   My brother does.  So does Trump.  More to the point, does any rational person actually believe that Trump is rational?  My brother does, but he's a narcissist too.

Every tweet, press quote, video, and many executive decisions, contributes further evidence that Trump exists at the center of his own fabricated reality.  That's what is really frightening.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 10:09:03 PM by ILikeDividends »

radram

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2018, 10:06:25 PM »
..... in their hatred of Trump since "Trump is to blame for hurricane".
Who was "The Media" that said this? Link please.

harvestbook

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Re: Trump meeting to restore "Santa Claus Rally" to former glory
« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2018, 07:55:55 AM »
I believe in the power of narratives, because humans have used narratives for thousands of years to survive. Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory is insightful at this kind of thing, even analyzing media for certain keywords that signal narrative turns (for instance,  "Clinton emails" got an exponentially outsized coverage compared to any of Trump's perceived or real scandals). Setting aside the politics and facts, it was the STORY that changed things.

The last two years, the STORY on the financial sites and news was "Tax cuts and deregulation! Hooray!" And even the Fed raising rates was seen as a sign of health, and the specter of a trade war was even seen as a necessary evil that wouldn't matter because it was in everyone's best interest to make a deal.

What is the story now? Trade war bad, Fed bad, Trump bad. Not a whole lot has changed in the economic data, but a massive psychological shift occurred somewhere along the line. Hunt also does a lot of Game Theory, and he believes Trump doesn't play a Cooperation Game, he plays a Competition Game. Everything is about "winning," especially for himself. And he's playing a game of chicken. Does anyone expect he would be the first to turn the wheel to avert a head-on collision?

Every ham-handed attempt to calm markets is likely to backfire spectacularly. Can you name one presidential action that would restore your confidence today? We're one Russian invasion of Ukraine away from a recession that is likely underway already. One day we'll look back on this and laugh painfully, but we'll never live in a country again where this madness didn't happen.

« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 07:59:13 AM by harvestbook »