Author Topic: Trade Idea Thread  (Read 15923 times)

KingCoin

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Trade Idea Thread
« on: December 12, 2013, 02:25:48 PM »
For the "active" investors out there, I thought I'd start a thread to compile some of your best trade ideas. Ideally, these will be ideas into which you have some special insight or there exists a compelling thesis (as opposed to I like MegaCorp because it has a low P/E). A 10mm microcap you've spend 100hrs researching might fit the bill.

::Please note that I'd like to limit discussion of the virtues of indexing and the efficient market hypothesis here except as it pertains to trades suggested (I'm more compelled to believe that Apple trades at an appropriate price than a lightly traded structured note). ::

Questions to answer:
What's the trade?
What do you think the market is missing or misunderstanding?
Is there a catalyst?
What are the major risks?

I'll start it off with one:
Buy TDE @ $22.00.
TDE is a long dated (2059) investment grade bond issued by Telephone Data Systems (ticker TDS), a $2.7bn wireline telecom provider. These bonds have a current yield of 7.85%.
Over the past few days, these bonds have sold off almost 10% on no news that I can see (a very large move for a bond of this risk category).
My thesis is that a large institutional owner is liquidating a position that is outsized relative to normal trading volumes (as evidenced by the very high trading volume over the last few days). I would expect these to pop back (~5-8%) when the seller is cleared out. In the meantime, the carry on the bond provides equity like returns on a fairly low risk basis. This trade could be especially compelling in a tax free account due to both its short term nature and the fact that the bond's distributions are treated as income.

Risks: We're in a rising interest rate environment, and long dated bonds are especially susceptible to higher rates. Retail investors are especially skittish about bonds as evidenced by large discounts to NAV in the CEF space, and these bonds are heavily traded by retail.  The bond is also callable at par on 11/15/2015, which limits the convexity of the position.


tooqk4u22

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2013, 09:09:15 AM »
Given the term it trades and acts more like a preferred stock (cumulative and tax treatment for divis instead of ordinary) for BBB- issues you would then expect a spread of about 3.5% above treasuries - so this may be in the zone but definetitly better in a tax advantaged account, if not seek out preferreds with a comparable rating.   


KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2013, 12:01:09 PM »
I liquidated TDE between 22.80-22.90. Was hoping for more of a pop, but I'll take the +4% with bond indices down over the last couple weeks.

Right now I'm thinking AGIIL looks quite cheap at 19.90. It's a BBB- credit trading with a 8.5% YTM in 2042. Bonds with similar ratings and maturities tend to trade in the 5-6% YTM range.  This bond has taken a beating over the last couple months, substantially underperforming bond indices, even as stock in AGII has been very strong. This could be also be an interesting capital structure arbitrage play (shorting the stock or buying puts, funded by the credit spread) if you want to play this on a more hedged basis.

Risks: Long dated bonds have substantial interest rate exposure, the bond is callable at 25 in 2017, property+casualty insurers can be risky.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2014, 10:03:48 AM »
AGIIL bonds have rallied quite a bit off the nonsensical lows, trading now around 21.2-21.4, a 7% gain from the entry point (19.9). I'll probably hold on for a couple more percentage points, but these have gone from "very cheap" to only "cheap".

I just bought some PYS at 20.5. This is an exchange traded trust of RRD bonds (the RRD 6.625 of 4/14/2029), with a coupon of 6.3. The underlying bonds are trading at $91, which to me puts a fair value of the PYS at around 22.05. I'll look to exit this trade around 21.5 for a 5% gain. You'll clip a about a 7.5% yield in the meantime.

I also bought some XKE around 6.7. This is a trust of Toys 'R Us bonds maturing in 2021. This trust has been decimated by retail investors liquidating on the back of a alarming Bloomberg article (which contained no new information). Non-retail focused bonds, bank loans, and credit default swaps have been seasonably stable over the same period. Toys R Us is a horrible credit to be sure, but I'm playing this for a trade, hoping to exit around 7.2-7.4. You'll clip a 16% current yield in the meantime, or a 20.5% yield to maturity, but this isn't really a buy and hold unless you have a view on the credit story.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2014, 10:20:13 AM »
I just saw this thread for the first time and wanted to say thank you!  I need to do some research but it looks like these have worked out well for you.  May I ask how you find these?  It seems like so far they've mostly been cases where you identify a selloff without any accompanying news.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2014, 10:48:39 AM »
I just saw this thread for the first time and wanted to say thank you!  I need to do some research but it looks like these have worked out well for you.  May I ask how you find these?  It seems like so far they've mostly been cases where you identify a selloff without any accompanying news.

I've built some screens that monitor for when securities deviate significantly from what I consider fair value. I tend to focus on illiquid securities which tend to have the most irrational swings. I aim to generate 25-40% annual returns at a Sharpe ratio over 4. I generally focus on low risk securities, but will occasionally take a stab at something like Toys R Us if I feel like it's compelling enough.

I should offer the caveat that if you decide to get involved in these trades, you should always use limit orders. The bid/offer is often quite wide on these securities. I'll also offer the caveat that I'm not an investment adviser, and that you can lose all your money trading securities, especially when following the advice of some guy on the internet :)

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2014, 12:30:53 PM »
I just saw this thread for the first time and wanted to say thank you!  I need to do some research but it looks like these have worked out well for you.  May I ask how you find these?  It seems like so far they've mostly been cases where you identify a selloff without any accompanying news.

I've built some screens that monitor for when securities deviate significantly from what I consider fair value. I tend to focus on illiquid securities which tend to have the most irrational swings. I aim to generate 25-40% annual returns at a Sharpe ratio over 4. I generally focus on low risk securities, but will occasionally take a stab at something like Toys R Us if I feel like it's compelling enough.

I should offer the caveat that if you decide to get involved in these trades, you should always use limit orders. The bid/offer is often quite wide on these securities. I'll also offer the caveat that I'm not an investment adviser, and that you can lose all your money trading securities, especially when following the advice of some guy on the internet :)

Some of the smartest guys around use that internet thing.  Still, your caveat is a good one.  I appreciate your suggestions - I just put in an order for PYS.  Please continue posting future suggestions!

Personally, I've been doing pretty well recently selling out of the money put spreads.  I'm basically acting as an insurance company - although any individual premium may be small, the large majority of premia are kept as pure profit.  I'm still working out what the ideal timeframe and strike prices are for my preferred risk/reward ratio

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2014, 01:20:17 PM »
Personally, I've been doing pretty well recently selling out of the money put spreads.  I'm basically acting as an insurance company - although any individual premium may be small, the large majority of premia are kept as pure profit.

Yeah, these trades are tricky. Sometimes the vol skew is very high, which makes selling high strike and buying low strike iffy in my opinion. Makes sense when vol is reasonably flat though. You have to watch out for things like earnings announcements as well.

Also, I'm not sure what your level of sophistication is, but just because you keep the large majority of premia doesn't make it a good deal in itself. You can imagine a scenario where 19/20 times you make $1, but 1/20 you lose $40. Probabilistically speaking, this is a very bad trade (not saying yours are, just illustrating a point). Also, since vol has low, and equities have steadily ground upwards, this has been an exceptionally good period for that kind of trade.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2014, 01:25:36 PM »
Personally, I've been doing pretty well recently selling out of the money put spreads.  I'm basically acting as an insurance company - although any individual premium may be small, the large majority of premia are kept as pure profit.

Yeah, these trades are tricky. Sometimes the vol skew is very high, which makes selling high strike and buying low strike iffy in my opinion. Makes sense when vol is reasonably flat though. You have to watch out for things like earnings announcements as well.

Also, I'm not sure what your level of sophistication is, but just because you keep the large majority of premia doesn't make it a good deal in itself. You can imagine a scenario where 19/20 times you make $1, but 1/20 you lose $40. Probabilistically speaking, this is a very bad trade (not saying yours are, just illustrating a point). Also, since vol has low, and equities have steadily ground upwards, this has been an exceptionally good period for that kind of trade.

Right.  My sophistication level is high, and my description was short.  Those are all good points, and ones that I have considered.  The biggest nagging issue, to me, is the vulnerability of this strategy to quick, sudden declines - think Black Monday.  That's why I've only put a relatively small portion of my portfolio in this strategy.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2014, 01:29:07 PM »
Right.  My sophistication level is high, and my description was short.  Those are all good points, and ones that I have considered.  The biggest nagging issue, to me, is the vulnerability of this strategy to quick, sudden declines - think Black Monday.  That's why I've only put a relatively small portion of my portfolio in this strategy.

Yeah, the nice thing about a spread strategy is that you can quantify maximum downside. As long as you're prepared for a catastrophic sell-off, you should be fine.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2014, 01:36:37 PM »
Yeah, the nice thing about a spread strategy is that you can quantify maximum downside. As long as you're prepared for a catastrophic sell-off, you should be fine.

That sort of catastrophic sell-off could wipe out that account, though.  I think you have to be willing to lose the entire amount you devote to that part of the portfolio.

wtjbatman

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2014, 08:02:03 PM »
I'll also offer the caveat that I'm not an investment adviser, and that you can lose all your money trading securities, especially when following the advice of some guy on the internet :)

I'm getting Boglehead flashbacks here (obviously not the active trading part, they wouldn't stand for that, I mean the disclaimer on your post). Kidding :)

Seriously though, I've mentioned this in other threads, but I think Realty Income Corp (O) is in a great spot right now. The REIT down swing has it at a great price point, it's a solid company with a fantastic history and good projected growth, and it's well poised to handle rising interest rates. Once I have enough in my Roth I will be initiating a position in O.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2014, 08:18:04 PM »
Seriously though, I've mentioned this in other threads, but I think Realty Income Corp (O) is in a great spot right now. The REIT down swing has it at a great price point, it's a solid company with a fantastic history and good projected growth, and it's well poised to handle rising interest rates. Once I have enough in my Roth I will be initiating a position in O.

Interesting. What do you think the market is missing? Why has UBS been sanguine about their prospects? None of your comments are valuation predictive (they'd be true whether the stock was trading at $3, $30, or $300). What do you think is a fair valuation for the company is and why?

I'm not trying to break your balls, but just trying to dig a layer deeper. Unfortunately, I trade fixed income where valuation is more straight forward.

wtjbatman

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2014, 08:51:51 PM »
Seriously though, I've mentioned this in other threads, but I think Realty Income Corp (O) is in a great spot right now. The REIT down swing has it at a great price point, it's a solid company with a fantastic history and good projected growth, and it's well poised to handle rising interest rates. Once I have enough in my Roth I will be initiating a position in O.

Interesting. What do you think the market is missing? Why has UBS been sanguine about their prospects? None of your comments are valuation predictive (they'd be true whether the stock was trading at $3, $30, or $300). What do you think is a fair valuation for the company is and why?

I'm not trying to break your balls, but just trying to dig a layer deeper. Unfortunately, I trade fixed income where valuation is more straight forward.

Realty Income is a REIT, they don't create product or uncover natural resources, so it doesn't have anything to do with the market "missing" something. I may have misinterpreted what this thread was for. My mistake!

But to answer your questions. Realty Income has a 97%+ occupancy rate, so revenues are assured, and it has proven and effective management. It owns properties in 49 of the 50 states, so it is geographically diverse. Its 5 year revenue growth rate is fantastic, 5 year dividend growth rate solid for an REIT, however the eps growth rate is not where it could be. Not sure why UBS dislikes Realty Income, Zacks has them as a Buy. They purchased another REIT in 2013, and announced a deal with a second to acquire their $500 million in properties. They spent nearly $2 billion on new properties in 2013 leading to continued growth.

It's not far off fair valuation at this point in time (P/FFO hovering around 16x), but I still consider it a buy for anyone looking for a solid REIT to add to their portfolio.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2014, 01:01:54 PM »
AGIIL bonds have rallied quite a bit off the nonsensical lows, trading now around 21.2-21.4, a 7% gain from the entry point (19.9). I'll probably hold on for a couple more percentage points, but these have gone from "very cheap" to only "cheap".

I just bought some PYS at 20.5. This is an exchange traded trust of RRD bonds (the RRD 6.625 of 4/14/2029), with a coupon of 6.3. The underlying bonds are trading at $91, which to me puts a fair value of the PYS at around 22.05. I'll look to exit this trade around 21.5 for a 5% gain. You'll clip a about a 7.5% yield in the meantime.

I also bought some XKE around 6.7. This is a trust of Toys 'R Us bonds maturing in 2021. This trust has been decimated by retail investors liquidating on the back of a alarming Bloomberg article (which contained no new information). Non-retail focused bonds, bank loans, and credit default swaps have been seasonably stable over the same period. Toys R Us is a horrible credit to be sure, but I'm playing this for a trade, hoping to exit around 7.2-7.4. You'll clip a 16% current yield in the meantime, or a 20.5% yield to maturity, but this isn't really a buy and hold unless you have a view on the credit story.

Hi KingCoin,

Have you sold your PYS yet?  By my calculations, the fair value is around the same at about 21.60, but the current market price is over 22.

If so, do you have any other suggestions?

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2014, 02:03:16 PM »
I like ARCP. Beat today but has a long ways to go to catch up with its peers. Sports as of close today a 6.77 Yield. In full disclosure I am in the stock long and added shares today.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2014, 02:30:42 PM »
PYS: I sold some today at 22.15 and 22.25 (I think the top two prints!) for a gain of +8.3%. I still have a decent sized position.
AGIIL: I sold out of this around 22.4 for a gain of +12.6%.
XKE: These paid a distribution of $0.3875 so are up about +6%. I'm holding as I think they have another 5-10% of juice in them.

I'm honestly struggling to find cheap bonds at the moment. I have a lot of core carry paper, but don't see much that's due for a quick pop.  I've been nibbling on KTH which is a non-call trust of Excelon bonds due in 2028. Pays an 8% coupon (7% current yield). I'm buying in the 28.65-28.75 area. I think they're worth 30-30.5 based on where the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 is trading (116/117.5).
http://www.quantumonline.com/SearchDD.cfm?tickersymbol=KTH&sopt=symbol

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2014, 02:45:25 PM »
PYS: I sold some today at 22.15 and 22.25 (I think the top two prints!) for a gain of +8.3%. I still have a decent sized position.
AGIIL: I sold out of this around 22.4 for a gain of +12.6%.
XKE: These paid a distribution of $0.3875 so are up about +6%. I'm holding as I think they have another 5-10% of juice in them.

I'm honestly struggling to find cheap bonds at the moment. I have a lot of core carry paper, but don't see much that's due for a quick pop.  I've been nibbling on KTH which is a non-call trust of Excelon bonds due in 2028. Pays an 8% coupon (7% current yield). I'm buying in the 28.65-28.75 area. I think they're worth 30-30.5 based on where the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 is trading (116/117.5).
http://www.quantumonline.com/SearchDD.cfm?tickersymbol=KTH&sopt=symbol

How do you figure the value?  If it's based on equivalent yield, then the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 @ 116 is yielding 6.36%.  A 6.36% yield on KTH would be about 31.50.  Is there a reason you discount it?

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2014, 02:52:11 PM »
How do you figure the value?  If it's based on equivalent yield, then the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 @ 116 is yielding 6.36%.  A 6.36% yield on KTH would be about 31.50.  Is there a reason you discount it?

It's less liquid, so I think it should trade at a bit of a discount. 4-6pts cheap feels about right to me, but it's a finger in the air guess.

smedleyb

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2014, 03:10:18 PM »
Best trade idea?  Short biotech in size, and pray I'm still around to collect on the bet when the sector implodes.

Until then, let's party like it's 1999.


KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2014, 03:15:43 PM »
Best trade idea?  Short biotech in size, and pray I'm still around to collect on the bet when the sector implodes.

Until then, let's party like it's 1999.

It's funny, I saw an interview with a biotech fund manager and even he thought the sector was overvalued. When a guy who makes a living trying to convince people to buy biotech can't find anything good to say, it's probably time to run for the hills.

That said, I don't think I really have any edge here, and don't know how to best play the short side.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2014, 03:18:17 PM »
How do you figure the value?  If it's based on equivalent yield, then the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 @ 116 is yielding 6.36%.  A 6.36% yield on KTH would be about 31.50.  Is there a reason you discount it?

It's less liquid, so I think it should trade at a bit of a discount. 4-6pts cheap feels about right to me, but it's a finger in the air guess.

Sounds reasonable.  Okay, I've been looking into this in a somewhat painstaking fashion and I think I may have found one:
XVG @ 25.5 yields 5.9%.  The underlying is a Boeing 6.125% due 2/15/2033 that currently trades around 125.  Thus XVG trades at a ~17% discount to the underlying.

Oh crap.  I realized why it's at such a discount: it's callable at any time.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2014, 03:31:08 PM »
How do you figure the value?  If it's based on equivalent yield, then the EXC 7.38 4/6/2028 @ 116 is yielding 6.36%.  A 6.36% yield on KTH would be about 31.50.  Is there a reason you discount it?

It's less liquid, so I think it should trade at a bit of a discount. 4-6pts cheap feels about right to me, but it's a finger in the air guess.

Sounds reasonable.  Okay, I've been looking into this in a somewhat painstaking fashion and I think I may have found one:
XVG @ 25.5 yields 5.9%.  The underlying is a Boeing 6.125% due 2/15/2033 that currently trades around 125.  Thus XVG trades at a ~17% discount to the underlying.

Oh crap.  I realized why it's at such a discount: it's callable at any time.

I range trade XVG. Bonds like these are good carry in my opinion. I try to buy them when they're trading at par+accrued and sell them when they're a couple percent through the call price. If you can flip around in it a couple times over the course of the year, you're looking at 10%+ for very low risk paper. They're negatively convex, but rates have to move quite a bit before you start getting hit.

smedleyb

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2014, 03:40:31 PM »
Best trade idea?  Short biotech in size, and pray I'm still around to collect on the bet when the sector implodes.

Until then, let's party like it's 1999.

It's funny, I saw an interview with a biotech fund manager and even he thought the sector was overvalued. When a guy who makes a living trying to convince people to buy biotech can't find anything good to say, it's probably time to run for the hills.

That said, I don't think I really have any edge here, and don't know how to best play the short side.

No edge on this end either, other than recognizing the chart has clearly gone parabolic, entering pure bubble territory.  Of course, it could double again before collapsing, who knows?  I should have phrased it differently: it's not my best trade idea -- shorting bubbles can be hazardous to your financial health -- but it could be the most lucrative short out there if timed correctly.  I know, I know, that's a huge if....


beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2014, 03:52:14 PM »
I range trade XVG. Bonds like these are good carry in my opinion. I try to buy them when they're trading at par+accrued and sell them when they're a couple percent through the call price. If you can flip around in it a couple times over the course of the year, you're looking at 10%+ for very low risk paper. They're negatively convex, but rates have to move quite a bit before you start getting hit.

Which it definitely isn't now.  What about AFSD?  There isn't an exact underlying, but that security is a 5.5% coupon maturing 6/15/2052.  Aflac doesn't have any "normal" bonds that go that far out, but there's a 6.9% 12/17/2039 that's trading around 128.  If the exchange-traded bond traded at the same yield, it'd be expected to be around 25.50 instead of the current 23.16.

smedleyb

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #25 on: February 27, 2014, 03:55:03 PM »
I bought a nice chunk of closed-end bond funds in mid-December (NQU, e.g.) 

Good investment so far, and love the 6-7% yields. 

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #26 on: February 27, 2014, 04:14:25 PM »
Which it definitely isn't now.  What about AFSD?  There isn't an exact underlying, but that security is a 5.5% coupon maturing 6/15/2052.  Aflac doesn't have any "normal" bonds that go that far out, but there's a 6.9% 12/17/2039 that's trading around 128.  If the exchange-traded bond traded at the same yield, it'd be expected to be around 25.50 instead of the current 23.16.

AFSD is subordinated to the 6.9 '39. They're both probably money good, but AFSD is callable in 2017, and has an almost 40 year maturity. That's a lot of pain if rates rise and limited upside if rates fall. Might be interesting to trade around, but I don't like it as a buy and hold.

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #27 on: February 27, 2014, 04:33:07 PM »
Which it definitely isn't now.  What about AFSD?  There isn't an exact underlying, but that security is a 5.5% coupon maturing 6/15/2052.  Aflac doesn't have any "normal" bonds that go that far out, but there's a 6.9% 12/17/2039 that's trading around 128.  If the exchange-traded bond traded at the same yield, it'd be expected to be around 25.50 instead of the current 23.16.

AFSD is subordinated to the 6.9 '39. They're both probably money good, but AFSD is callable in 2017, and has an almost 40 year maturity. That's a lot of pain if rates rise and limited upside if rates fall. Might be interesting to trade around, but I don't like it as a buy and hold.

So where else other than the "Third Party Trust Preferred Securities" section of Quantum Online can I look for these sorts of issues?

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2014, 04:46:54 PM »
So where else other than the "Third Party Trust Preferred Securities" section of Quantum Online can I look for these sorts of issues?

Not sure exactly what you mean, but the FINRA website usually has good data:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C510620&symbol=AFL.GD

beltim

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #29 on: February 27, 2014, 04:50:34 PM »
So where else other than the "Third Party Trust Preferred Securities" section of Quantum Online can I look for these sorts of issues?

Not sure exactly what you mean, but the FINRA website usually has good data:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C510620&symbol=AFL.GD

Oh sorry.  I meant where do you do research to find the exchange-traded bonds that trade at a discount to their underlying.  The one place I've found what the above-referenced section of quantum online.

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #30 on: February 27, 2014, 04:56:21 PM »
Oh sorry.  I meant where do you do research to find the exchange-traded bonds that trade at a discount to their underlying.  The one place I've found what the above-referenced section of quantum online.

I think that's the best place. Unfortunately, trust preferreds are a dieing breed as most are getting called. There's often interesting stuff to do in very small bond issues that trade sloppily. You just have to roll up your sleeves and do the research though.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2014, 06:06:06 AM »
I bought a nice chunk of closed-end bond funds in mid-December (NQU, e.g.) 

Good investment so far, and love the 6-7% yields.

That has been a very good play so far this year. Good call. I too played this but am now out.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2014, 06:18:40 AM »
Take a look and do some homework on SQM. My opinion best ag play. Divy currently at 5%  . Full disclosure if in the red today I will be initiating position or below 30$

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2014, 08:01:22 AM »
Paid more for SQM than expected but I see this stock potentially putting in a new 52 week high this year.  Stock is starting to breakout. I nibbled and hopefully will get to add on a pull back.  Buyer of C under 48$ as a stock thats hated with great evaluations is much likely to turn than a stock with bad evals. IMHO

Also have a bid in on RBS on a miss yesterday. Stock is trading down but this is for my longer term half of my trading portfolio.


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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2014, 01:48:07 PM »
What a ride in the market today.

Did not hit my buy marks in C or RBS

SQM dropped so I added again.

Sold all my shares of BP was a nice run, great gain.

Added to ARCP

Shorted the QQQ's into the weekend

Good Longs are getting harder to come by!

Hope everyone had a prosperous day!

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2014, 01:50:53 PM »

Initiated my position in C
added some shares to SQM
Added to my index funds

With the news on Ukraine combined with this week being a jobs report week I will look to add again if we get a 1-2% further decline which i expect in the market this week.  This is based on historical new worthy events. Walls street has a nice article out on it you can check out.
I am looking at adding a position in the TBT soon as well.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #36 on: March 04, 2014, 08:22:36 AM »
So much for history but i don't think were nearly done with this Ukraine thing so selling into strength and putting in place some shorts.

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #37 on: March 04, 2014, 08:24:55 AM »
long TZA

KingCoin

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #38 on: March 04, 2014, 08:35:43 AM »
long TZA

To keep this thread more concise, perhaps stick to explanations of trades where you feel like you have a compelling (and explained) edge rather than using it as a trade log per se? That was the original mission of this thread as laid out in the first post. I know I started listing entry and exit point on my trade ideas, but that was more of a courtesy to those who decided to play along.

Perhaps start another thread for active traders punting around and trying to take advantage of macro type moves?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #39 on: March 04, 2014, 08:41:51 AM »
Gotcha....Sorry!

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2014, 09:03:38 AM »
I am not a value investor, more of a momentum trader/trend follower. 100% price/technical based. I just buy whatever is going up pretty much. Therefore, I've found myself almost 100% in biotechs lol. But I have defined trailing stops so I won't participate in the meltdown. I'll give back a small part of what I've gained. FWIW I'm long FLDM, ATRC, IRBT, HZNP, AER, RVNC, CARA, EGLT.

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #41 on: March 19, 2014, 01:37:42 PM »
Shorted some JZJ at 26.7. These will be called at 25 soon. Only got a few hundred shares off, but hopefully some more monkeys will lift me out of a couple thousand shares.

KTH trading at $30+ now. Nice, quick 5% return on that one.

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #42 on: March 24, 2014, 01:18:28 PM »
long TZA

Long TZA the other day at 15.10, scooped up some QQQ puts last week as well.

If I was near a computer, I would have covered half of that bet this afternoon, and may still do so if lows are tested in the next 1/2 hour.

But this market feels weak and due for an immanent correction of the 3-7% variety.  Stops set above recent highs and bear-fingers crossed! 

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #43 on: March 24, 2014, 01:33:43 PM »
I rarely try to make any macro calls, but high yield bonds are looking tempting as a long-term short (or at least as a hedge to some of my trading positions). The high yield index is paying an abysmal and historically low 5.6%. In a continued bull market, the index will face pressure from rising rates. In a bear market, well, you don't want to be long HY in a bear market.  You're really walking a tightrope, and not getting paid much for it.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY

Perhaps something like a 3mo-1yr calendar put spread is the way to play it, but I'll probably wait for 5.25% to pull the trigger.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2014, 01:35:16 PM by KingCoin »

soccerluvof4

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #44 on: March 24, 2014, 02:39:41 PM »
long TZA

Long TZA the other day at 15.10, scooped up some QQQ puts last week as well.

If I was near a computer, I would have covered half of that bet this afternoon, and may still do so if lows are tested in the next 1/2 hour.

But this market feels weak and due for an immanent correction of the 3-7% variety.  Stops set above recent highs and bear-fingers crossed!


TZA got Jiggy today just before noon up 5.5% . Sold a chunk.

smedleyb

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #45 on: March 26, 2014, 09:47:34 AM »
Third time's a charm?

Today is the third session in a row where opening gap was sold hard.  Unlike the last two days, I doubt we see midday comeback, but who knows.

Still there with the same positions, but feeling more hopeful now than I was 2 hours ago.

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #46 on: March 27, 2014, 07:51:21 AM »
Covering shorts right now. 

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Re: Trade Idea Thread
« Reply #47 on: March 27, 2014, 07:54:48 AM »
Covering shorts right now.

I took another 1/4 chunk off for a nice gain on TZA. Still long TBF short TLT all in for now.