Poll

Given the outperformance of US Stocks over the last 10 years, what is your prediction on forward returns & your asset allocation?

US continues to outperform & my asset allocation reflects this belief (< 20% international).
25 (39.1%)
US continues to outperform, but I have a global asset allocation (at least 20% international).
23 (35.9%)
International outperforms & my asset allocation reflects this belief (> 40% international).
7 (10.9%)
International outperforms, but I still maintain > 60% US Stocks
9 (14.1%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Author Topic: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years  (Read 3825 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years
« Reply #50 on: January 17, 2023, 11:28:24 PM »
https://www.callan.com/research/2021-classic-periodic-table/#

Follow the coloured squares, and diversify. You might tell from my spelling that I only have a 30% US allocation.

From that table, every 4-5 years is when Dev ex-US and Emerging beats Large Cap.
Speaking of International Developed Markets ex-US (Developed) and Emerging Markets (EM), notice how often Developed is sandwiched between EM and U.S. Large Cap stocks.  EM is more volatile but has returns that differ more from U.S. Large Cap stocks, which suggests it could provide better diversification than Developed markets.

This is also shown in Portfolio Visualizer data about asset class correlations.  Compared to U.S. Large Cap (IVV), Developed (EFA) has a 0.89 correlation.  But EM (EEM) has a much lower 0.77 correlation.  For those who avoid volatility, that is one cost of EM investing.  REITs have 0.75 correlation to U.S. Large Caps and offer historically lower volatility, but over the past 15 years volatility has been higher than EM, so YMMV.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations

Scandium

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Re: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years
« Reply #51 on: January 18, 2023, 08:58:34 AM »
The problem with international diversification is that when the US market crashes the rest of the world follows. So when you need diversification, you don't get it.

I have never found any historical data to suggest to me that holding ex-US equities is valuable, particularly in a FI context.

From the article that you posted:


That grey line, that's my portfolio. And it is even more extreme if you extend it out another three years. EDITed to add: well, maybe not extreme. But grey is positive and blue is negative in real terms.

I'm happy to acknowledge the limitations of the US but I think it's hard for the next 30 years to tilt away from the US. The US is big, innovative, and diverse, with an excellent higher education system. China and India are communistic and corrupt, Europe is entrenched and stagnant. The rest are tiny market caps.

I'm holding US.

You can do whatever you want with your money, but Japan+South Korea+Taiwan is currently something like 9.2% of the total world stock market and just happens to include Samsung, TSMC, and Toyota.

But as the article points out, the dot-com recover is the last time ex-US outperformed, about 20 years ago! (and runup to GFC, 06-08). The 2008 crisis was worse outside the US, and the recovery was slower and not as great as well. Sure I believe in reversion to the mean, but god damn it's taking a long time!

In the 70s-80s some of the recoveries were better abroad, and maybe that will happen again. But that was also before the Euro, and many of the systemic issues the EU is still struggling with, and have since 2008. But as you say an increased % in Asia maybe could help? I do think it's even more connected now than it was 30 years ago, so I'd guess that both down and up US and ex-US will be more in line in the future, but that's just a hunch.

PDXTabs

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Re: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2023, 03:17:27 PM »
In the 70s-80s some of the recoveries were better abroad, and maybe that will happen again.

Between November 1968 and July 1982 the SP-500 was down ~33.4% in real terms with dividends reinvested. I don't know how much international exposure would have helped because I don't know where to find that data. I do know that's the worst case scenario that I'm trying to avoid with more diversification.

EDITed to add: I'm not saying that anyone shouldn't be 100% US if they want to. There are currency and tax advantages if you live in the USA and plan to retire there. I am trying to explain why I'm not 100% US. If anything I consider 100% US a higher risk with the potential for higher reward. It is the risk of less diversification that I personally want to avoid. That is, I care more about the worst decade than the best decade. Also, seriously, how can you not want to own TSMC and Samsung?
« Last Edit: January 18, 2023, 03:39:07 PM by PDXTabs »

BicycleB

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Re: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years
« Reply #53 on: January 18, 2023, 05:30:51 PM »
Also, seriously, how can you not want to own TSMC and Samsung?

Because I don't think China's gonna pay me back for my TSMC stock after they invade Taiwan!  ;)

Joking aside, am listening quite carefully to the pro-international case. But you laid yourself open for that one, I couldn't resist.

PDXTabs

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Re: Total US market vs Total International ex-US, the next 10 years
« Reply #54 on: January 18, 2023, 05:37:39 PM »
Also, seriously, how can you not want to own TSMC and Samsung?

Because I don't think China's gonna pay me back for my TSMC stock after they invade Taiwan!  ;)

Joking aside, am listening quite carefully to the pro-international case. But you laid yourself open for that one, I couldn't resist.

Fair enough. I'm 99% convinced that the USA won't let China invade because of TSMC.