Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2228912 times)

scottish

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8900 on: January 24, 2022, 07:30:45 PM »
You know what'll cause a crash?    Russia invades the Ukraine and/or China invades Taiwan.   Otherwise we're in good shape.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8901 on: January 24, 2022, 07:57:53 PM »
If one keeps their job, crashes are great as you can buy cheap stocks, but millions get laid off when the easy stock money goes away.  If one is sure they won't get canned, then cheer for corrections/crashes.  Everyone else should be cautious when these appear.  I also went back to school after stock plummet caused job losses, but completely changed industries.       

But many people believe that the stock market is a forward looking indicator of future profits which may lead the real economy by six months. In that sense it's just the fuel gauge. It isn't the fuel gauge's fault when you run out of gas. I'm not going to get angry at the fuel gauge, and I'm not going to get afraid either. I choose to look on the bright side. Also, every last qualified engineer that I knew was able to find a job in the .com crash. It was all the other unqualified people I knew (like me) who I knew to really struggled.

I can only share my opinion, but this feels lie the precursor to a crash and the Fed is out of bullets.  Control burns are also good for the forest, but not when it's 100F, windy, dry in the middle of the summer.         

Well, that depends on what they prioritize. If they choose to prioritize the stock market they can always run another round of QE and buy some more junk bonds.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8902 on: January 24, 2022, 07:59:54 PM »
You know what'll cause a crash?    Russia invades the Ukraine and/or China invades Taiwan.   Otherwise we're in good shape.

Do you really think that the world stock market cares about Ukraine? I care about Ukraine. Most people can't find Ukraine on a map.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8903 on: January 24, 2022, 08:16:45 PM »
Most people can't find Ukraine on a map.
Easy. It's the big blue region in eastern Europe:

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8904 on: January 24, 2022, 08:44:25 PM »
Most people can't find Ukraine on a map.
Easy. It's the big blue region in eastern Europe:


I definitely remember swimming in the sea off the coast of Alberta as a child.  Lovely waters.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8905 on: January 24, 2022, 10:09:28 PM »
That's not the "Risk" map as I quite remember it, but the division of Australia and a huge Ukraine do ring very true.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8906 on: January 24, 2022, 11:09:36 PM »
Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.
(The S&P 500 shows about a 10% correction in 1990.)

There have been a number of near corrections over the past 5 years.  Everyone gets to decide for themselves whether "closeness counts", or if that's just for horseshoes and hand grenades.

Nuclear weapons and first dates.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8907 on: January 24, 2022, 11:18:19 PM »
Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.
(The S&P 500 shows about a 10% correction in 1990.)

There have been a number of near corrections over the past 5 years.  Everyone gets to decide for themselves whether "closeness counts", or if that's just for horseshoes and hand grenades.

Nuclear weapons and first dates.

Same thing in my case.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8908 on: January 25, 2022, 05:52:58 AM »
- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

Meh, there was a point in Feb/Mar 2020 when my portfolio balance was actually lower than my total contributions. I wouldn't say that I was cheering for a crash, but a crash wouldn't have upset me. And it still wouldn't upset me today. I've got 8+ years of investing left to do.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8909 on: January 25, 2022, 06:13:00 AM »
I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.. and it looks like the bears are going to get another shot at it today.


GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8910 on: January 25, 2022, 07:22:31 AM »
I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

waltworks

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8911 on: January 25, 2022, 07:54:15 AM »
Nothing goes down in a straight line..

...or up. I'd hazard a guess that your outlook (ie, either optimistic/long term, or risk averse/short term) has a lot to do with your eventual investing performance.

-W

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8912 on: January 25, 2022, 08:05:46 AM »
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Are you sure about that?



The Top Is In absolutely!

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8913 on: January 25, 2022, 08:13:16 AM »



GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8914 on: January 25, 2022, 08:40:27 AM »
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Are you sure about that?

The Top Is In absolutely!

I always liked that it was an absolute about how dealing in absolutes is bad.  :P

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8915 on: January 25, 2022, 09:37:05 AM »
I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
...which is itself an absolute statement.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8916 on: January 25, 2022, 09:46:09 AM »
I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Which is in itself... an absolute. :D


secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8917 on: January 25, 2022, 09:53:53 AM »
I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
...which is itself an absolute statement.

I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Which is in itself... an absolute. :D



/r/whoosh

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8918 on: January 25, 2022, 12:03:53 PM »
If one keeps their job, crashes are great as you can buy cheap stocks, but millions get laid off when the easy stock money goes away.  If one is sure they won't get canned, then cheer for corrections/crashes.  Everyone else should be cautious when these appear.  I also went back to school after stock plummet caused job losses, but completely changed industries.       

But many people believe that the stock market is a forward looking indicator of future profits which may lead the real economy by six months. In that sense it's just the fuel gauge. It isn't the fuel gauge's fault when you run out of gas. I'm not going to get angry at the fuel gauge, and I'm not going to get afraid either. I choose to look on the bright side. Also, every last qualified engineer that I knew was able to find a job in the .com crash. It was all the other unqualified people I knew (like me) who I knew to really struggled.

I can only share my opinion, but this feels lie the precursor to a crash and the Fed is out of bullets.  Control burns are also good for the forest, but not when it's 100F, windy, dry in the middle of the summer.         

Well, that depends on what they prioritize. If they choose to prioritize the stock market they can always run another round of QE and buy some more junk bonds.

Forward looking duration is a function of rates.  When rates are 0%, all future cash flows are equally valuable and companies with high expected growth rates enjoy higher valuations relative to slow growth companies.  As rates increase, future cash flow value decreases geometrically to near zero value at year 10, so companies with high expected future growth rates are crushed.  We are in the middle of this IMHO.  2020 earnings were low due to shutdowns, 2021 earnings looked great next to 2020 earnings due to opening and stimulus.  2022 earnings will have tougher comps and will take a while to digest.   

Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and USD stability, worrying about the stock market would make the already challenging job impossible.     

habanero

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8919 on: January 25, 2022, 01:42:55 PM »
Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and USD stability, worrying about the stock market would make the already challenging job impossible.   
Inflation, not USD stability.

And doing a 180 degree turn in 2018 was pretty much because the stock marked tanked 20% or thereabouts. The Fed is really worried about the market.

Maybe top worry is about to set in at the Fed?

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8920 on: January 25, 2022, 02:07:44 PM »
Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and USD stability, worrying about the stock market would make the already challenging job impossible.   
Inflation, not USD stability.

And doing a 180 degree turn in 2018 was pretty much because the stock marked tanked 20% or thereabouts. The Fed is really worried about the market.

Maybe top worry is about to set in at the Fed?

I agree, Karen Petrou wrote a whole book about it called Engine of Inequality.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8921 on: January 25, 2022, 03:01:05 PM »
$MSFT top is in.

scottish

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8922 on: January 25, 2022, 03:18:15 PM »
Most people can't find Ukraine on a map.
Easy. It's the big blue region in eastern Europe:


I definitely remember swimming in the sea off the coast of Alberta as a child.  Lovely waters.

Water in Alberta is freaking cold, it's all from glaciers.   Even on the coast!

scottish

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8923 on: January 25, 2022, 03:18:53 PM »
You know what'll cause a crash?    Russia invades the Ukraine and/or China invades Taiwan.   Otherwise we're in good shape.

Do you really think that the world stock market cares about Ukraine? I care about Ukraine. Most people can't find Ukraine on a map.

Yeah, you're right Ukraine depends on the NATO response.    Taiwan's another story.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8924 on: January 26, 2022, 02:50:32 AM »
Fully invested here
Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf


Took some money out here
I'm not daft enough to call the top-top, but tech has been struggling badly and was the one noticeable unchecked tickbox in the recent rally.

A lot of tech funds have been smashed despite the overall market reaching new highs.

Could be a sign that the winds of change are blowing through the markets.

Personally I've taken a little bit off the table and raised a bit of cash.


Now back fully invested.
FWIW (which is not an awful lot) I am not convinced that the stock market isn't in for a much tougher time over the next couple of years, but I think that at least in the short term selling pressure will subside and we'll have a rally. I will probably lighten up again if we manage to get back to the broken neckline of the old uptrend.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8925 on: January 26, 2022, 05:58:49 AM »
Can't have a rally if the Top is in

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8926 on: January 26, 2022, 11:25:10 AM »
Now back fully invested.
FWIW (which is not an awful lot) I am not convinced that the stock market isn't in for a much tougher time over the next couple of years, but I think that at least in the short term selling pressure will subside and we'll have a rally. I will probably lighten up again if we manage to get back to the broken neckline of the old uptrend.

Sorry, not Thorstachian enough.  Top is in.

jeromedawg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8927 on: January 26, 2022, 03:37:55 PM »
I really want to TLH... just waiting for the bottom to be in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8928 on: January 27, 2022, 12:37:05 PM »
Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

Looks like we're going to get another one.

Buy the Dip has turned into Sell the Rip.

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8929 on: January 27, 2022, 01:39:58 PM »
Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then, 

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8930 on: January 28, 2022, 07:13:10 AM »
Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then,



Topping off the punchbowl is in!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8931 on: January 28, 2022, 02:15:48 PM »
Just when I thought the top was out.... they pull it back in.

RWTL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8932 on: January 28, 2022, 03:36:12 PM »
Just when I thought the top was out.... they pull it back in.

You have to look to the science to know the top is in.


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8933 on: January 28, 2022, 08:42:13 PM »
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Are you sure about that?

The Top Is In absolutely!

I always liked that it was an absolute about how dealing in absolutes is bad.  :P

All I know is that Absolute Top, Tops, Absolutely.  Absolute Top is in

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8934 on: January 29, 2022, 12:11:39 PM »
Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then,



Topping off the punchbowl is in!

If that's JP spiling the punchbowl, then the top might not be in ;) 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8935 on: January 29, 2022, 01:52:57 PM »
Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then,

Topping off the punchbowl is in!
If that's JP spiling the punchbowl, then the top might not be in ;)
Nah, Jerome has Everclear.  Top is not in, yet!  (Edit to add - which ironically means that the top is in until the Fed reverses course, just FYI)
« Last Edit: January 29, 2022, 01:55:05 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8936 on: February 03, 2022, 02:04:25 PM »
Nasdaq rallied back to the 233dma and then got crushed again today, and we are close to forming a death cross on the 55/233dma averages.

It's starting to feel more and more like a bear market to me as the dominoes are beginning to fall in order.

Last year we had all the junkiest cash burning tech stocks typified by ARKK holdings getting crushed, but these were so small they didn't significantly impact the market.

Then towards the tail end of 2021 we saw expensive growth stocks start to take a hammering, especially as lockdown darlings like Zoom and Peleton gave up all their gains.

Then more recently we have more household names that are beginning to get hammered. Facebook and Paypal probably the highest profile casulties so far.

It's starting to ripple through bigger and bigger names.

Who's next?

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8937 on: February 03, 2022, 02:18:26 PM »
The longs are next.

Fortunately, those of us who realized the top was in had time to prepare.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8938 on: February 03, 2022, 02:24:48 PM »
Who's next?

The Top is in!
So the answer is

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8939 on: February 03, 2022, 02:44:43 PM »
Facebook TOP is in! Holy crash batman...

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8940 on: February 03, 2022, 04:05:22 PM »
The longs are next.

Fortunately, those of us who realized the top was in had time to prepare.

We're been preparing since April 11th, 2017 on this thread! We all went to cash and shorted the market then. Now that the market is going down we're all rich! Oh wait...

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8941 on: February 03, 2022, 04:47:15 PM »
Nasdaq rallied back to the 233dma and then got crushed again today, and we are close to forming a death cross on the 55/233dma averages.

It's starting to feel more and more like a bear market to me as the dominoes are beginning to fall in order.

Last year we had all the junkiest cash burning tech stocks typified by ARKK holdings getting crushed, but these were so small they didn't significantly impact the market.

Then towards the tail end of 2021 we saw expensive growth stocks start to take a hammering, especially as lockdown darlings like Zoom and Peleton gave up all their gains.

Then more recently we have more household names that are beginning to get hammered. Facebook and Paypal probably the highest profile casulties so far.

It's starting to ripple through bigger and bigger names.

Who's next?

MRNA and NFLX have also crushed.  AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.     

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8942 on: February 03, 2022, 05:59:15 PM »

MRNA and NFLX have also crushed.  AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is that because so many people refuse the vaccines??!?!?!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8943 on: February 03, 2022, 08:18:51 PM »
The longs are next.

Fortunately, those of us who realized the top was in had time to prepare.

We're been preparing since April 11th, 2017 on this thread! We all went to cash and shorted the market then. Now that the market is going down we're all rich! Oh wait...

Wow, 5 year Top-versary coming up soon. 

waltworks

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8944 on: February 03, 2022, 08:45:14 PM »
For those new here, since Thorstache's original top call, the S&P is up 109% (dividends reinvested). So to be fair, he came pretty close to calling the half top.

-W

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8945 on: February 03, 2022, 11:11:27 PM »
For those new here, since Thorstache's original top call, the S&P is up 109% (dividends reinvested). So to be fair, he came pretty close to calling the half top.

-W

Pretty much nailed calling the middle

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8946 on: February 04, 2022, 02:44:57 AM »
For those new here, since Thorstache's original top call, the S&P is up 109% (dividends reinvested). So to be fair, he came pretty close to calling the half top.

-W

Pretty much nailed calling the middle

He probably doesn’t reinvest dividends anyway

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8947 on: February 04, 2022, 01:56:02 PM »
MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8948 on: February 04, 2022, 02:57:13 PM »
MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

CRUSHED

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8949 on: February 04, 2022, 05:08:58 PM »
Nasdaq rallied back to the 233dma and then got crushed again today, and we are close to forming a death cross on the 55/233dma averages.

thorstach, is that you?