Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2314682 times)

Phenix

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8700 on: December 03, 2021, 10:40:55 AM »
Todays date can be written as 12.02.2021. It can also be written as 2021.12.02. Both of these are palindromes and have rotational symmetry!

This is a secret sign that the top is in.

NI SI POT!

LOL

(I wrote that backwards.)

⅃O⅃

707

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8701 on: December 03, 2021, 11:21:06 AM »
70P 12 1N

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8702 on: December 03, 2021, 11:33:20 AM »

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8703 on: December 03, 2021, 01:32:31 PM »
70P 12 1N
I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8704 on: December 03, 2021, 01:39:37 PM »
70P 12 1N
I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

Coca Cola makes a better rust remover though

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8705 on: December 03, 2021, 05:36:12 PM »
Well the VIX is above 15, so I guess that means the XIV is breaking down.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8706 on: December 04, 2021, 08:29:25 AM »
I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....

So, uh, how's that going...

Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8707 on: December 04, 2021, 09:54:19 AM »
I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....
So, uh, how's that going...
Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.
Believe in the Top and the top will believe in you, that's my mantra.  I wake up every morning believing that the Top Is In.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8708 on: December 06, 2021, 04:25:34 AM »
Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf
« Last Edit: December 06, 2021, 04:27:09 AM by vand »

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8709 on: December 06, 2021, 07:25:56 AM »
Id like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8710 on: December 06, 2021, 07:33:53 AM »
Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

I agree. The time to buy is Friday morning just after the super scary November inflation numbers are posted. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

Also, very early reports suggest the Omicron variant may be the long-predicted less-lethal/more-spread mutation of COVID-19: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-early-reports-about-omicron-variant-are-encouraging-01638738888?mod=home-page

I mean, the top was clearly in. This is a dead-cat play.

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8711 on: December 06, 2021, 09:00:08 AM »
Id like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

I am basking in those predictions like in the pictures I saw of the eclipse watchers in Antarctica this morning.

Solar top is in.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8712 on: December 06, 2021, 04:12:17 PM »
Id like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

I am basking in those predictions like in the pictures I saw of the eclipse watchers in Antarctica this morning.

Solar top is in.

This guys got the right idea

scottish

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8713 on: December 06, 2021, 07:42:46 PM »
70P 12 1N
I prefer  sprite to 7up

Nah, gotta go with Mountain Dew.  It has the fresh neon glow of a healthier drink.

Go with the real thing.


G-dog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8714 on: December 07, 2021, 10:45:22 AM »
Signal top might be in https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasuries-saw-largest-weekly-inflows-more-than-year-bofa-2021-12-03/

Of course, this is from BoA, a big part of the housing crash due to predatory lending, etc. (aka, consider the source).

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8715 on: December 07, 2021, 11:49:13 AM »
Signal top might be in https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasuries-saw-largest-weekly-inflows-more-than-year-bofa-2021-12-03/

Of course, this is from BoA, a big part of the housing crash due to predatory lending, etc. (aka, consider the source).

It's easy to call the top when you caused it.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8716 on: December 07, 2021, 12:12:08 PM »
Did you know that if you rearrange the letters in

"Omicron"


it spells



"The Top is In"


ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8717 on: December 07, 2021, 12:18:47 PM »
Sentiment Gauges have flipped to bearish very quickly.
Good chance we are due for the traditional pre-Christmas stock rally.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

I agree. The time to buy is Friday morning just after the super scary November inflation numbers are posted. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

Also, very early reports suggest the Omicron variant may be the long-predicted less-lethal/more-spread mutation of COVID-19: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-early-reports-about-omicron-variant-are-encouraging-01638738888?mod=home-page

I mean, the top was clearly in. This is a dead-cat play.

Today is the first time I've ever "made" $65,000 in a day. I sold my S&P index funds yesterday and went all-in with UPRO and TQQQ, all in the hopes of catching "the top", which is NOW in.

Hands in the air!!!!

svosavvy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8718 on: December 10, 2021, 10:57:06 AM »
I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade. 

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8719 on: December 10, 2021, 02:13:45 PM »
I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the top is in?

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8720 on: December 10, 2021, 02:59:23 PM »
Happy Highday Friday, everyone!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8721 on: December 10, 2021, 04:03:38 PM »
I don't feel like the Evergrande technical default unfolding is a Lehman moment, but, it's hard to be a permabull here.  Picking up some SDS for a short term trade.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the top is in?
Sure looks like it's time for the top to be in!

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8722 on: December 13, 2021, 12:51:36 PM »
I bought me some put options...

Oh, they were put options on $UVXY.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8723 on: December 13, 2021, 03:09:04 PM »
I bought me some put options...

Oh, they were put options on $UVXY.
I give you the same congratulations I sent my friend who bought a brand new Jeep.

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8724 on: December 17, 2021, 06:38:42 AM »
Your friend's brand new jeep was probably a larger expense*

*Sources tell me these don't depreciate very much, and today's market is wild from everything I see

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8725 on: December 20, 2021, 07:44:53 AM »
I may try to catch a couple falling knives this week.... Top was in.....

So, uh, how's that going...

Not as well as I thought!  However, Top was in and I have a bunch (for me) or limit orders that  I believe will be filled soon.

  All 11 SP 500 sectors fall at the open.
 DOW  and NASDAQ are falling too.

My outstanding limit orders may be filled by Christmas.

TOP was in

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8726 on: December 20, 2021, 08:25:42 AM »
TOP was in

Of course it was, it's always been in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8727 on: December 20, 2021, 08:55:40 AM »
Are we into the slow grind?

It has been almost 21 months, or 420 trading days since the market bottomed on March 23rd 2020 with the VTI hitting a price of ~110 on this date.

Since then, VTI it has returned a stunning 110% off its nadir, currently priced at ~231

90% of that return happened in the first 13 months, with VTI first reaching ~218 in April 2021, 13 months after the bottom
The last 10% of the total return since March 2020 (218 -> 231) has taken the last 9 months to be delivered.

During this time inflation has arguably halved that nominal 10% down to 5% in real terms.

Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8728 on: December 20, 2021, 09:55:11 AM »
Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8729 on: December 20, 2021, 10:02:12 AM »
Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

If it was that easy then surely everyone would just do it! 

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8730 on: December 20, 2021, 12:48:28 PM »
I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:


Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8731 on: December 20, 2021, 05:17:42 PM »
Its possible these last 9 months are a preview of the next 9 years, as the market enters a period of lower than average returns to balance out the above average returns that it has delivered in the last 12 years.

Either that or producers and retailers raise their prices and profits. Wages go up. Consumer spending goes up. Stock prices rise.

E.g. Company XYZ has earnings of $1/share and a PE of 25. Their earnings are based on selling things for $10 that they produce for $9. Inflation causes all prices to increase 10%. Now they are selling things for $11 that they produce for $9.90. Earnings rise to $1.10 per share. Their PE stays unchanged and their stock price goes from $25 to $27.50, an increase of 10%.

Actually it's better than that because XYZ is 60% capitalized by debt locked in for the next 5 years at a 3% annual interest rate. The owners of those bonds take a NFL punt kick to the crotch, while stockholders enjoy the earnings tailwind of borrowing at deeply negative real interest rates. Because the cost of debt payments are nominally locked in, they become a smaller and smaller part of the overall cost of production as everything else rises. This is a roundabout way of saying the cost of production does not go from $9 to $9.90, because the interest expense does not rise. Maybe in XYZ's example it goes from $9 to $9.75? That would mean earnings rise $1.25 instead of $1.10, an increase of 25% which translates to the stock price.

It could be even better than that if XYZ's consumers have locked in low rates on their house and car loans. When they get a 10% raise, the payments on their biggest purchases stay the same, giving them more discretionary income to waste on crap from XYZ. Thus, XYZ earns a lot more sales with a profit of a lot more per sale than they did prior to the inflation.

Bond top is in.

If it was that easy then surely everyone would just do it!

It was that easy. Unfortunately now, the top is in, so those times are no more.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8732 on: December 20, 2021, 05:24:30 PM »
I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:

Ask him about your bond allocation. I want to see him with ears back and fangs out.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8733 on: December 20, 2021, 06:42:40 PM »
Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8734 on: December 21, 2021, 06:19:36 AM »
I asked my cat if the top was in, got this:

Ask him about your bond allocation. I want to see him with ears back and fangs out.



Top is in!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8735 on: December 21, 2021, 04:12:08 PM »
The full 175 pages of this thread may have been worth it for just the cat gif. Gif-top is most definitely in.

Edubb20

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8736 on: December 21, 2021, 05:06:32 PM »
Top is in.

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8737 on: December 22, 2021, 05:43:41 AM »
The full 175 pages of this thread may have been worth it for just the cat gif. Gif-top is most definitely in.

It was a slow build to the cat G-t, but yeah worth it.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8738 on: December 22, 2021, 09:12:44 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

This stuff must be like catnip to y'alls cats.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8739 on: December 22, 2021, 09:57:55 AM »
Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8740 on: December 22, 2021, 10:20:23 AM »
Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

I just watched something like $70 BILLION dollars rush back into Tesla just because Elon tweeted he had sold enough stock.

There is no top to this market.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8741 on: December 22, 2021, 01:55:39 PM »
Hmm, I think the top may be in soon. ATHF Christmas Eve, anyone?

I'm dreaming of a volatile Christmas.

I just watched something like $70 BILLION dollars rush back into Tesla just because Elon tweeted he had sold enough stock.

There is no top to this market.
No top?????


techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8742 on: December 22, 2021, 02:22:44 PM »

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8743 on: December 22, 2021, 09:34:04 PM »
In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8744 on: December 22, 2021, 09:53:03 PM »
In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.
"I'm not dead yet." - the top

G-dog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8745 on: December 23, 2021, 07:33:45 AM »
In some quarters of society, there is no top in Monty Python quotes. Ultimately, though, the top is in. I shudder to think how parrot-like the top really is.
"I'm not dead yet." - the top

^Perfection

I feel happy - the top

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8746 on: December 23, 2021, 10:31:52 AM »
Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

I used to be smart but now Im just dumb

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8747 on: December 23, 2021, 11:57:27 AM »
Liquidated 1.6% of my holdings last week.  Feeling PRET-TY smart right now

I used to be smart but now Im just dumb

This is so true for me

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8748 on: December 23, 2021, 08:53:46 PM »
Christmas Tree Top Is In!!!!

svosavvy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8749 on: December 27, 2021, 08:35:45 AM »
Christmas Tree Top Is In!!!!
Looks like the star on top of the Christmas tree top is in. JK. I honestly thought we would test and fail the pre omicron top.  I was wrong, time to unwind a losing position based on this thought.