Top is in

[bthewalls]

Top is in once a week

[brooklynmoney]

In the spirit of our dear leader Thorstach, I am proclaiming that the Snowflake top is in. Also IPO top. And tech top. SPAC top. All tops are in!! 

[Cabaka]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

[TomTX]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Wake me up when it breaks 20% down, plz.

Thanks!

[BigMoneyJim]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

I am. Heck I'm hoping for a large decline for October as I'm planning to do a big Roth conversion soon, and I expect to sell my house and dump a lot of money into the market.

I'm not a market timer, but I can still feel quite smug if my moves otherwise coincide with favorable market environments!

Edit: Side note: I hadn't looked at the market today before reading this thread's latest update, so I opened a new tab. I started typing in "weather" instead of the index ETF symbol I typically check for market level. Freudian slip, I think.

[salt cured]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Please post to let us know when the correction finishes thanks.

[dividendman]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Wait.... are you saying Top is in?

[DadJokes]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

This guy thinks that the correction is going to finish. He clearly doesn't know what "Top is in" actually means. The correction will finish right around the time that the sun expands and swallows the earth.

[solon]

noob

[Alternatepriorities]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

This guy thinks that the correction is going to finish. He clearly doesn't know what "Top is in" actually means. The correction will finish right around the time that the sun expands and swallows the earth.

So you're saying we're at peak solar mass and the TOP IS IN?

[secondcor521]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Since your post earlier today, as a buy and hold investor, I'm up at an annualized rate of 82.02%.

I'm always on the lookout for strategies that beat the market.  Yours may be one.  If you're willing to document your strategy now (so I can follow it later - I can't replicate your feelings and guesses, even if they turn out to be true most of the time), and then take a pile of money and follow that strategy, and then document it to show that your after investment expenses, after taxes, properly calculated (I suggest XIRR()), risk-adjusted (I like the Sharpe ratio) return beats a total market US index for, oh, let's say five years, then let me know and I'll be interested in reading about it.

But what do I know, I'm just a LTBH investor who retired at 46 and has a 0.47% net WR.

[BicycleB]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

[Wintergreen78]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Since your post earlier today, as a buy and hold investor, I'm up at an annualized rate of 82.02%.

I'm always on the lookout for strategies that beat the market.  Yours may be one.  If you're willing to document your strategy now (so I can follow it later - I can't replicate your feelings and guesses, even if they turn out to be true most of the time), and then take a pile of money and follow that strategy, and then document it to show that your after investment expenses, after taxes, properly calculated (I suggest XIRR()), risk-adjusted (I like the Sharpe ratio) return beats a total market US index for, oh, let's say five years, then let me know and I'll be interested in reading about it.

But what do I know, I'm just a LTBH investor who retired at 46 and has a 0.47% net WR.

Hey - if you had sold all your stocks when the moving average began dropping, your strategy would have been better for the last 19 days! That’s like basically three weeks. How can you argue with a three week history of success?

[secondcor521]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Since your post earlier today, as a buy and hold investor, I'm up at an annualized rate of 82.02%.

I'm always on the lookout for strategies that beat the market.  Yours may be one.  If you're willing to document your strategy now (so I can follow it later - I can't replicate your feelings and guesses, even if they turn out to be true most of the time), and then take a pile of money and follow that strategy, and then document it to show that your after investment expenses, after taxes, properly calculated (I suggest XIRR()), risk-adjusted (I like the Sharpe ratio) return beats a total market US index for, oh, let's say five years, then let me know and I'll be interested in reading about it.

But what do I know, I'm just a LTBH investor who retired at 46 and has a 0.47% net WR.

Hey - if you had sold all your stocks when the moving average began dropping, your strategy would have been better for the last 19 days! That’s like basically three weeks. How can you argue with a three week history of success?

Three weeks!  That's like, what, eight to ten investing lifetimes!  I thought I was being quite rational in just discussing my returns (without any mention of risk, investment and life goals, time frames, alternatives, contingency plans, data, or logic) over just under five hours.

Thankfully today we've been in a secular bull market for a couple of hours.  The trend is your friend.

#shorttermthinkingtopisin

[Wintergreen78]

hmmm, kinda quiet in here today; hope all you buy and holders are enjoying September.

me, a crazy ass moving average "market timer" sure has. market down about 10% but as i'm a moving average investor, I approximated I have saved over 50,000 that I can put to use when this correction finishes and increase my gains even more. you buy and holders are now going to need to gain more than the drop from the top just to get back to even where you where at the top; but what do I know, i'm just a "market timer"

Since your post earlier today, as a buy and hold investor, I'm up at an annualized rate of 82.02%.

I'm always on the lookout for strategies that beat the market.  Yours may be one.  If you're willing to document your strategy now (so I can follow it later - I can't replicate your feelings and guesses, even if they turn out to be true most of the time), and then take a pile of money and follow that strategy, and then document it to show that your after investment expenses, after taxes, properly calculated (I suggest XIRR()), risk-adjusted (I like the Sharpe ratio) return beats a total market US index for, oh, let's say five years, then let me know and I'll be interested in reading about it.

But what do I know, I'm just a LTBH investor who retired at 46 and has a 0.47% net WR.

Hey - if you had sold all your stocks when the moving average began dropping, your strategy would have been better for the last 19 days! That’s like basically three weeks. How can you argue with a three week history of success?

Three weeks!  That's like, what, eight to ten investing lifetimes!  I thought I was being quite rational in just discussing my returns (without any mention of risk, investment and life goals, time frames, alternatives, contingency plans, data, or logic) over just under five hours.

Thankfully today we've been in a secular bull market for a couple of hours.  The trend is your friend.

#shorttermthinkingtopisin

Based on my performance since 8 o’clock this morning, I project my annual rate of return to be... (checks figures)... 744%. So, on September 22, 2021 I’m planning to buy a race car. I’ve always wanted a race car and at this rate I think I can make that happen.

[Cabaka]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

[Cabaka]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

well wintergreen how you feeling now ?

not picking on you, but as it seems you wished to pick on me(two snarky posts on one comment); i'm right back at you.

continue to mock me if it makes you happy, i'll be at my favorite watering hole celebrating with the money I approximate I have saved and watching the Stanley cup, go Stars !

[Optimiser]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

So, if I'm hearing you correctly, the top is in!

[Wintergreen78]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

well wintergreen how you feeling now ?

not picking on you, but as it seems you wished to pick on me(two snarky posts on one comment); i'm right back at you.

continue to mock me if it makes you happy, i'll be at my favorite watering hole celebrating with the money I approximate I have saved and watching the Stanley cup, go Stars !

Update: based on my performance today I will have approximately 0.3% of my current funds in 12 months. So, instead of a race car I will have a cardboard box under a bridge.

[secondcor521]

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in, out, long or short.

Emphasis added.  If it helps, momentum investing is something I, and most other investors, are familiar with; as you correctly point out, it's been out for a while.

Sincere questions:

Which index (or indices) do you use?
Which moving average(s) do you use?
Do you ever switch indexes or moving averages?  If so, how do you decide when to switch?
What do you mean by "days"?  Days of the week?  Month?  Year?  How do you decide?
How do you decide when to be "in" and when to be "out"?
How do you decide when to be long and when to be short?

Are you saying that I get to pick the index, the moving average, when to be in and when to be out, when to be long, and when to be short, that I'll beat buy and hold every time?  (If not, I'm a little unsure what "it" refers to in the bolded section above.)

Since you've been using this for a while, how do you know you've beaten buy and hold?

If using momentum investing is so easy and beats buy and hold every time, why do you think the buy and hold people haven't adopted it?

(Yes, I don't agree with you, but I am interested in learning from you, thus the questions.)

I'm always on the lookout for strategies that beat the market.  Yours may be one.  If you're willing to document your strategy now (so I can follow it later - I can't replicate your feelings and guesses, even if they turn out to be true most of the time), and then take a pile of money and follow that strategy, and then document it to show that your after investment expenses, after taxes, properly calculated (I suggest XIRR()), risk-adjusted (I like the Sharpe ratio) return beats a total market US index for, oh, let's say five years, then let me know and I'll be interested in reading about it.

I'm still interested.  PM me if you ever decide to do the above.  Or an article with relevant supporting data that isn't obviously cherry picked.

[solon]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

well wintergreen how you feeling now ?

not picking on you, but as it seems you wished to pick on me(two snarky posts on one comment); i'm right back at you.

continue to mock me if it makes you happy, i'll be at my favorite watering hole celebrating with the money I approximate I have saved and watching the Stanley cup, go Stars !

quoting is hard

[Buffaloski Boris]

I looked at the SP 495+5. It’s almost 10% down. Clearly the Mid September is Top Is In!

[maizefolk]

It's hard to stay optimistic when the S&P 500 drops so far it is close to hitting lows not seen since Monday around 11:30.

[Steeze]

My net worth is all the way back to August 2020 numbers.

I’M FREAKING OUT MAN

[Davnasty]

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index; people have been using that  long before I came around and will be long after and it beats the buy and holders here every time; it is up to you to choose which days and which indexes to be in , out, long or short. you can read about it and strategies in books and online most anywhere if you are interested. mine is not even mine, its from a book I read years ago.

I tried to show it here a while back but the group think is too strong so I moved on from mmm and in result have 50 posts in nearly 4 years.

when I come back its mostly to watch the "stocks are on sale posts", they amuse me. as of today, they all have lost 10% from the top is they stayed in and will need more than 10% to get back to even, even if the s+p goes back to its previous high this week. for some reason it is lost on everyone that getting back gains lost is always more difficult than adding likely a small amount more after your portfolio has lost a lot of value.

well wintergreen how you feeling now ?

not picking on you, but as it seems you wished to pick on me(two snarky posts on one comment); i'm right back at you.

continue to mock me if it makes you happy, i'll be at my favorite watering hole celebrating with the money I approximate I have saved and watching the Stanley cup, go Stars !

quoting is hard

lol

[dragoncar]

quoting is hard

lol
[/quote]

LOL

[UnleashHell]

quoting is hard

lol

LOL


Top quoting is hard ]/[

[frugalnacho]

[top]lol[/top]

[markbike528CBX]

My net worth is all the way back to August 2020 numbers.

I’M FREAKING OUT MAN

FTFY, since your message was so subtle. /s.   I miss the blink tag. /s

[dragoncar]

My net worth is all the way back to August 2020 numbers.

I’M FREAKING OUT MAN

FTFY, since your message was so subtle. /s.   I miss the blink tag. /s

[frugalnacho]

[dougules]

[top]lol[/top]

There is no [/top] and never will be.

[BigMoneyJim]

There are four tops!

[BicycleB]

"Quoting is hard" - LOL, ya'll, that was awesome.

noob

Cabaka's persistence is far from noob. Cabaka's comments are consistent threads in the tapestry of the top.

if you are serious, it is not my strategy; it is moving average investing using 5, 10, 25,50, 100, 200 day or whatever day moving average you wish on an index...
I tried to show it here a while back

I just meant your comments have been part of the thread for a while. Disagreeing with the groupthink doesn't mean you're a noob, it just means you disagree. Personally I think the flow of the thread is enlivened by your remarks.

I never absorbed exactly what you meant before, though, so the summary made me think. I'll dig into it sometime (probably right after it woulda been really helpful!).

[dragoncar]

Market timing and?  Market timing and?

[Paul der Krake]

This is not a meme, dad.

[dragoncar]

This is not a meme, dad.

Well not all of us can retire at 12.

[frugalnacho]

Have I memed incorrectly?  Aw shucks.  My meme top was already in.

[Paul der Krake]

This is not a meme, dad.

Well not all of us can retire at 12.

If you don’t have majority stakes in a dozen YouTube channels by age 10, you will likely never amount to anything.

[dragoncar]

This is not a meme, dad.

Well not all of us can retire at 12.

If you don’t have majority stakes in a dozen YouTube channels by age 10, you will likely never amount to anything.

Amounting is overrated

[Wintergreen78]

This is not a meme, dad.

Well not all of us can retire at 12.

If you don’t have majority stakes in a dozen YouTube channels by age 10, you will likely never amount to anything.

Amounting is overrated

Wait, is YouTube still a thing? I thought all the kids were on TikTok now.

[shuffler]

If you don’t have majority stakes in a dozen YouTube channels by age 10, you will likely never amount to anything.

Amounting is overrated

Wait, is YouTube still a thing? I thought all the kids were on TikTok now.

Tik-Tok-Top is in at midnight tonight.

[Wintergreen78]

So by my count the S&P 500 is back where it was on August 25. That is like 56 whole days. There haven’t been any crazy market swings in the meantime (did I miss any? I sometimes go weeks without reading the financial news).

Is the fear back? Is VIX breaking down? Is XIV over 15?

Things are boring! I’m ready for the top to be in again!

If the top can’t be in, could we at least have a little 10-15% correction so people can lose their minds? Those are entertaining too.

[BigMoneyJim]

Top is in confirmed. I just put $50k in the market (new funds from home sale), at the peak high value of Tuesday. It's all downhill from here.

[solon]

Top is in confirmed. I just put $50k in the market (new funds from home sale), at the peak high value of Tuesday. It's all downhill from here.

Thank you for your service.

[Wintergreen78]

Top is in confirmed. I just put $50k in the market (new funds from home sale), at the peak high value of Tuesday. It's all downhill from here.

Thank you for your service.

Hear hear!

[techwiz]

Top is in confirmed. I just put $50k in the market (new funds from home sale), at the peak high value of Tuesday. It's all downhill from here.

Thank you for your service.

Hear hear!

[ender]

Top rate service topping off the top!

[maizefolk]

Saw today on the news headlines tonight that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 just posted their single worst day since September (almost four weeks ago).

I knew the top was in but unprecedented results like this really drive it home, you know?

[ender]

Saw today on the news headlines tonight that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 just posted their single worst day since September (almost four weeks ago).

I knew the top was in but unprecedented results like this really drive it home, you know?

HOLY CRAP

top was in