Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1515826 times)

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6250 on: March 03, 2020, 12:28:26 PM »
Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up?

It seems some have missed the joke or at least my understanding of it.

No jokes today...? Perhaps the Bravado Top is in.

I'm well aware that the market goes up and down, sometimes drastically and for long periods of time. I'm also aware that nothing in life is certain: the stock market going up, the strength of the US Dollar, that I won't lose my job, or even that I'll wake up tomorrow. The joke is that a random person on the internet (other than thorstache) giving out market predictions should be taken seriously.

But in all seriousness, the top is in.

habanero

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6251 on: March 03, 2020, 01:08:50 PM »
09:59:59:  eminis trade at 3057.50
10:00:00:  Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points
11:23:01:  eminis trade at 3057.50

Top Fed influence is in.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6252 on: March 03, 2020, 01:56:25 PM »
Well it is logically inconsistent that to look and say the market goes up long term because it always has because see the pattern, but then to dismiss the patterns that develop otherwise along the way.

The advice seems to be "watch out for market drops/volatility when VIX peaks".  And it then proceeds to list all the VIX peaks.  The problem is those peaks are totally random and can't be identified until they are already past.  So the advice is pretty worthless.

Seems the problem is that human minds are too good at finding patterns and find them where they are not. That is why we need the mighty Thorstach.

Well, how do we know that the market will always go up and this thread is just pure parody because the market will always go up? The only proof we have is in the pattern, but apparently, in every other case, the pattern is unreliable. We all could lose everything, but we'd rather not believe that, and stick our fingers in our ears and make these goofy threads to ignore that. I know if the stock market goes to zero, clearly other things to worry about, but that doesn't mean it could not happen just because we would rather not believe that it would. And it does not mean that if the stock market went to zero that it would not recover. But would it recover in a timeline relevant to you personally? That's all that REALLY matters. Even the most of the ardent Boglehead followers on their own forum admit that. It is why some people obsess endlessly over sequence of return risk.

I have no idea about the future. I have definitely NOT pulled all of my money out of the market (just only recognized my own risk tolerance over the weekend in taxable), but I have plenty of friends my own age (early millennials) who just said fuck it after losing everything in the economic crash of 2008-2009 to never invest again, not taxable, not retirement, nothing. Nothing I have said would convince them to ever put another dime in the stock market. It is a rigged game and they are going to lose and fuck it and fuck them. Yes, they lost out on all the gains, but they don't care because they don't believe the stock market is real (fair), that it isn't rigged, and that you won't get hosed in the end when you finally need to realize those gains. Are they dumb? Maybe, but it also took me a long time myself to get over my distrust and I don't think I really completely have. But I have no other choices and unlike my friends and family, cannot stand to watch my money do nothing but lose to inflation. But I could lose it all anyway. What kind of shit situation is this for ALL of us? That we have no choice but to either risk our hard earned money in the stock market or doom it to inflation? But life isn't fair, blah, blah, blah.

Wow and I thought I was a skeptic.  Kind of sorry for your friends. Their getting screwed is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you don’t invest, your money loses to inflation. And if you do invest, it is possible that you’ll lose it as well.

I get a kick out of this thread because there is so much silliness on it. A lot like the stock market if you think about it. What changed between Monday morning and Friday afternoon of last week? Not much that I can tell. Yet the “efficient” US stock market decided to drop over 10% of its value. And I’m reasonably confident it will continue to drop for a bit.* Why? Because people are awful at assessing downside risk and usually over-react to it. To the point of it being downright comical.

To summarize: The Top Is In!!**

*(we’ll see if I get to eat those words.)
**(for the last 2 days.)


MissNancyPryor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6253 on: March 03, 2020, 02:23:04 PM »
So much of the volatility observed on a day like today is due to "traders" rather than "investors."  This morning the Dow was -270 and then the rate drop happened the market zoomed to a +360 within about 14 seconds (no exaggeration on that).  600 point swings in mere seconds were happening all day.  This is because there are professional traders looking for momentary wins and are moving in and out of names constantly, several times a day. 

The great unwashed masses and 401K folks are investing for a much longer term.  We know that Apple and Boeing and Coke and McDonalds are not going away.  They will have a couple bad quarters but they will recover.  The world is not coming to an end.     

At first it pissed me off that things were swinging so wildly but then I remembered that there is a vast industry of professionals looking for the thinnest of margins to move in and out of stocks using algorithms.  They didn't decide that Amazon was good in the morning and rubbish by afternoon, they just played the table all day looking to catch the ride before getting back off.  Not fun to watch if you are in it for the long term but certainly not a harbinger of doom for the economy.     

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6254 on: March 03, 2020, 02:45:47 PM »
Recession is in, bottom is not in.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6255 on: March 03, 2020, 02:49:08 PM »
mine is. all in.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6256 on: March 03, 2020, 03:05:08 PM »
It's comforting to know that we will get the bottom call.  Or just that there will be a bottom at all. 

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6257 on: March 03, 2020, 03:44:49 PM »
But fluctuations matter exactly ZERO unless you are taking money out.  That's what boggles my mind about some people - they worry about fluctuations while they are still in the accumulation phase!  I cannot think of a bigger waste of time and energy.

Whether the market goes up, down or sideways, so what?  It's all just short term noise.  Look at the long term trends and you'll see the truth. 

And that truth is - top is in baby.  :P

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6258 on: March 03, 2020, 04:45:53 PM »
Butt fluctuations
hehe, butt fluctuations

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6259 on: March 03, 2020, 04:55:46 PM »
But fluctuations matter exactly ZERO unless you are taking money out.  That's what boggles my mind about some people - they worry about fluctuations while they are still in the accumulation phase!  I cannot think of a bigger waste of time and energy.

Whether the market goes up, down or sideways, so what?  It's all just short term noise.  Look at the long term trends and you'll see the truth. 

And that truth is - top is in baby.  :P

They think the market is on it's way to tanking want to out gain the market by selling high and buying low.  This forum is full of optimizers, and when it feels obvious that things are going down, they think it's their chance to optimize and get a let up on others.  I'm staying strong, but I get it now...

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6260 on: March 03, 2020, 05:56:37 PM »
buy low, hold long, sell high

that's my plan

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6261 on: March 03, 2020, 06:34:01 PM »

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6262 on: March 03, 2020, 07:43:26 PM »
Thank God Top is finally in, 'cause I ran out of novel top memes ages ago!

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6263 on: March 03, 2020, 07:49:06 PM »

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6264 on: March 03, 2020, 08:20:07 PM »

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6265 on: March 03, 2020, 09:05:01 PM »

Phenix

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6266 on: March 04, 2020, 06:11:36 AM »
Butt fluctuations
hehe, butt fluctuations
hehe, that nearly killed me

Wrecked 'em.

You know what they say about show business, "You have to start at the bottom."

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6267 on: March 04, 2020, 08:57:38 AM »
Top is not in. Based on the last 2 hours of market activity we are on track for approximately (checks math) ... ... 53,246,236% return by the end of the year. That should put the SP 500 at 1,597,387,099.4, give or take.


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6268 on: March 04, 2020, 09:03:19 AM »
Top is not in. Based on the last 2 hours of market activity we are on track for approximately (checks math) ... ... 53,246,236% return by the end of the year. That should put the SP 500 at 1,597,387,099.4, give or take.

Burn the heretic!

salt cured

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6269 on: March 04, 2020, 02:31:16 PM »
please you bum


PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6270 on: March 04, 2020, 02:45:25 PM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6271 on: March 04, 2020, 04:56:32 PM »
Top is not in. Based on the last 2 hours of market activity we are on track for approximately (checks math) ... ... 53,246,236% return by the end of the year. That should put the SP 500 at 1,597,387,099.4, give or take.

Only thing left to say is...Leroyyyyyy Jennnnnkins!!!!!

brooklynmoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6272 on: March 04, 2020, 06:10:29 PM »
Robinhood top is in.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6273 on: March 04, 2020, 11:00:16 PM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

His posts do seem to magnetically repel the markets upwards. Did we discover a new law of Newtonian physics, or is this a quantum thing where the top is both in and not in until we observe it? How do we know when we observe it? Is the bouncing cat both dead and alive? So many questions, so many tops.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6274 on: March 05, 2020, 01:31:35 AM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

His posts do seem to magnetically repel the markets upwards. Did we discover a new law of Newtonian physics, or is this a quantum thing where the top is both in and not in until we observe it? How do we know when we observe it? Is the bouncing cat both dead and alive? So many questions, so many tops.

Possibly he has truly found the key to market prediction, but he's just holding it the wrong way

RWTL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6275 on: March 05, 2020, 04:05:05 AM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

His posts do seem to magnetically repel the markets upwards. Did we discover a new law of Newtonian physics, or is this a quantum thing where the top is both in and not in until we observe it? How do we know when we observe it? Is the bouncing cat both dead and alive? So many questions, so many tops.

The lesser known Thorstache's Cat.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6276 on: March 05, 2020, 05:18:31 AM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

thank you thorstach!!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6277 on: March 05, 2020, 07:24:41 AM »
Possibly he has truly found the key to market prediction, but he's just holding it the wrong way

I've said it before, and I'm pretty sure now that he's Australian. 

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6278 on: March 05, 2020, 08:26:16 AM »
Psst! Market timers: I've stopped a pattern! It goes down one day and up the next. Just buy on the down days and sell on the up days.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6279 on: March 05, 2020, 10:30:28 AM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

His posts do seem to magnetically repel the markets upwards. Did we discover a new law of Newtonian physics, or is this a quantum thing where the top is both in and not in until we observe it? How do we know when we observe it? Is the bouncing cat both dead and alive? So many questions, so many tops.

The lesser known Thorstache's Cat.
except that there isn't an equal probability of outcomes. We already know that the Top is In.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6280 on: March 05, 2020, 11:38:20 AM »
I'm glad this thread exists so I can be reminded to check what the market is actually doing!

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6281 on: March 05, 2020, 12:16:18 PM »
I'm glad this thread exists so I can be reminded to check what the market is actually doing!

How can the market do things when the top is in?

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6282 on: March 05, 2020, 03:17:21 PM »
Wait till this equity bubble pops and the dollar devalues....sh1t will hit the fan

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6283 on: March 05, 2020, 03:22:14 PM »
Psst! Market timers: I've stopped a pattern! It goes down one day and up the next. Just buy on the down days and sell on the up days.

Just buy the VIX before it breaks down!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6284 on: March 05, 2020, 04:00:58 PM »
Psst! Market timers: I've stopped a pattern! It goes down one day and up the next. Just buy on the down days and sell on the up days.

Just buy the VIX before it breaks down!

Just buy the Vicks before coronavirus breaks you down!





Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6285 on: March 05, 2020, 08:11:49 PM »
The #thorstachrebound is real!

His posts do seem to magnetically repel the markets upwards. Did we discover a new law of Newtonian physics, or is this a quantum thing where the top is both in and not in until we observe it? How do we know when we observe it? Is the bouncing cat both dead and alive? So many questions, so many tops.

The lesser known Thorstache's Cat.

Even a dead Thorstache cat bounces when it drops... From the top.

Top is in. - again.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6286 on: March 06, 2020, 10:35:03 AM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN! 

ETA: high VIX was over 80 on 11-20-08. I hate it when that happens. But the VIX top is still in!
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 02:35:58 PM by Buffaloski Boris »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6287 on: March 06, 2020, 10:55:26 AM »
Bull markets don't die of old age, but I guess they can die from coronavirus. 

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6288 on: March 06, 2020, 12:20:38 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Market, “hold my beer, watch this”

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6289 on: March 06, 2020, 12:41:07 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Buffaloski, the Thorstache of VIXs.  Looks like we're goin' higher folks!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6290 on: March 06, 2020, 12:52:05 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Buffaloski, the Thorstache of VIXs.  Looks like we're goin' higher folks!

To the MOON baybee!!

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6291 on: March 06, 2020, 02:56:13 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Market, “hold my beer, watch this”


Hold my beer and watch this "Top is In!"

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6292 on: March 07, 2020, 10:16:39 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

It is down more like $10,000.   Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20.   I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).


LOL!  /cry

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6293 on: March 07, 2020, 11:08:34 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

It is down more like $10,000.   Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20.   I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).


LOL!  /cry
Sorry I talked you out of it, I owe you a beer for sure.  If you had just held one more day...
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 11:11:36 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6294 on: March 07, 2020, 11:14:41 AM »
Nah, it is ok, I am just laughing that we thought a drop to 325 was almost out of the question and yet now we are struggling to get back over 300 a few days later.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6295 on: March 08, 2020, 05:59:59 PM »
Forbes is not a believer. They say that VIX over 15 means the top is not in.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2020/03/08/vix-flashes-a-bullish-signal-in-a-volatile-market/#6b249fe23b3c


hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6296 on: March 09, 2020, 12:22:08 AM »
https://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html

Icky things like viruses and oil are messing with business. Beware pickers and flickers.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6297 on: March 09, 2020, 02:37:21 AM »

habanero

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6298 on: March 09, 2020, 07:32:25 AM »
e-minis limit down (-5%) in the overnight Asian market. Just reopned, and was limit down (-7% since Fridays close) after 1 second so trading halted for 15 minutes. Next trigger level is 2581,5 (-13% from Friday close)

Top fast limit down is in.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 07:34:39 AM by habaneroNorway »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6299 on: March 09, 2020, 07:33:15 AM »
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1