Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1520030 times)

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5850 on: February 20, 2020, 08:04:06 AM »
Wait, is it inevitable? This article only says it is probable https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/goldman-says-market-underestimating-coronavirus-risk-correction-is-looking-much-more-probable.html

So, the top is (probably) in.

Edit: I just read that article. “The act of cognitive dissonance is an important part of the sentiment process” That convinces me. It is the kind of thing a very serious person who thinks deeply about very serious things would say. So, in conclusion, the top is definitely in.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2020, 08:09:27 AM by Wintergreen78 »

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5851 on: February 20, 2020, 08:49:08 AM »
https://www.ccn.com/history-says-a-february-stock-market-crash-is-inevitable/

Sell!!!

"A stock market crash may not be in the cards tomorrow, but it could still be on the horizon, some analysts believe. At some point, the market’s beaming optimism will grow cold. No one can be certain of when a stock market correction will take place. "

 We are doomed ! Doomed ! DOOOOMMMEEDD!!!!

 Maybe not today or tomorrow - but soon ! Whenever it happens, you read it first here that it was coming !

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5852 on: February 20, 2020, 10:17:59 AM »
No rate cut.  Top is definitely in this morning. 

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5853 on: February 20, 2020, 11:39:54 AM »
It went down, it still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2020, 11:49:42 AM by aboatguy »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5854 on: February 20, 2020, 04:09:54 PM »
Yahoo deleted my finance account so I can't track my portfolio in realtime anymore (I use Personal Capital but it has sync issues with multiple accounts right now).  They restored my account but my portfolio info is gone.  I suspect the server my info was on died and they didn't have redundancy/backup?

Bottom line... I think I'm up based on the indices but more likely the TOP IS IN

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5855 on: February 20, 2020, 11:58:05 PM »
Yahoo deleted my finance account so I can't track my portfolio in realtime anymore (I use Personal Capital but it has sync issues with multiple accounts right now).  They restored my account but my portfolio info is gone.  I suspect the server my info was on died and they didn't have redundancy/backup?

Bottom line... I think I'm up based on the indices but more likely the TOP IS IN

Or maybe your portfolio numbers hit tilt

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5856 on: February 21, 2020, 04:15:29 AM »
I think I'm up based on the indices but more likely the TOP IS IN

it is????

WHY DIDN'T ANYONE MENTION THAT???


psssst wanna buy a beanie baby?

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5857 on: February 21, 2020, 06:04:34 AM »
The crazy thing is if the market drops a bunch it'll still be way up since this thread was created lol

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5858 on: February 21, 2020, 08:26:48 AM »
The crazy thing is if the market drops a bunch it'll still be way up since this thread was created lol

Which is of course the very point of threads like these.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5859 on: February 21, 2020, 11:10:50 AM »
VBTLX is UP again...:)

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5860 on: February 21, 2020, 11:29:42 AM »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5861 on: February 21, 2020, 12:12:21 PM »
It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5862 on: February 21, 2020, 12:25:19 PM »
It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

We need a nice, monstrous, five-year sale on stocks. Top, my friend, hope you were in.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5863 on: February 21, 2020, 12:56:23 PM »
It went down, it is still dropping.......


To paraphrase Herman Wouk, Panic!, in times of danger or in doubt run in circles scream and shout....... or channel Jack Bogle and just do nothing...   I  prefer the later..and the top is still not in.

and it's still dropping

We need a nice, monstrous, five-year sale on stocks. Top, my friend, hope you were in.

thorstach would be all.....

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5864 on: February 21, 2020, 01:39:48 PM »

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5865 on: February 21, 2020, 01:52:12 PM »

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5866 on: February 21, 2020, 01:57:29 PM »
So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

Yep!  I am going to use the money and take a cruise.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5867 on: February 21, 2020, 05:25:23 PM »
So you have learned your lesson and won't gamble in future?

Yep!  I am going to use the money and take a cruise.

I heard there’s some “killer” deals on cruises “going around” right now. 

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5868 on: February 21, 2020, 07:18:58 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5869 on: February 21, 2020, 08:18:17 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5870 on: February 21, 2020, 08:20:01 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

Yeah but earnings is going to be a reality check!

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5871 on: February 21, 2020, 09:02:44 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5872 on: February 21, 2020, 09:46:53 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

I thought you aren’t supposed to time the gold market. Just hold it for the dividends. If you want to trade you should play with T-bill volatility.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5873 on: February 21, 2020, 10:06:25 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

Yeah but earnings is going to be a reality check!

Yes. I just checked--XIV is breaking down.

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5874 on: February 22, 2020, 05:53:17 AM »
Gold Top is In!

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5875 on: February 22, 2020, 07:40:42 AM »

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.



 Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5876 on: February 22, 2020, 07:49:02 AM »
Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?


1) Read news, start to worry that maybe China is important to the world economy after all

2) Look at 401K, which is largely in the S&P500 and is at all time high

3) Buy 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.30, March 20, 2020 expiration

4) Watch everyone cackle as the market goes even higher

5) Watch with sadness as puts drop to $2

6) Finally get lucky on a market dip and sell puts for $3.65

7) Realize gambling is a problem, so book a cruise to Asia for April with the money made

8) (future)  Get really sad in March when market drops 10% and puts are worth $10 and 401K has dropped $150,000

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5877 on: February 22, 2020, 07:53:10 AM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

Just hold it for the dividends.

No dividends in gold.  You just let it go from 1600 to 2000.  Oh Gold top isn't in.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5878 on: February 22, 2020, 07:56:58 AM »
Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?

3) Buy 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.30, March 20, 2020 expiration


Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?


8) (future)  Get really sad in March when market drops 10% and puts are worth $10 and 401K has dropped $150,000

LOL that the way it always works.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5879 on: February 22, 2020, 08:10:46 AM »

Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?


No, the exact opposite.  I was betting that the SPY would dip below $325 by March 20 expiration, although since puts (and calls) have a thing called time value, the underlying equity does not *have* to dip down that far in order for the put to increase in price and make a profit *as long as it does it well before expiration*.

So for instance Monday, if the market is down another 1% and the SPY drops to around $330, the $325 puts will go to around $4.50 even though they are still $5 out of the money.   If it continues to drop during the week and hits $325, the puts will go to $8 or so.   An actual 10% drop from the $330 area to the $300 area would make the $33,000 worth of puts worth about $250,000.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5880 on: February 22, 2020, 08:49:12 AM »

Who determines the "spread"?  So you were betting that SPY would go higher than $325 by March?


No, the exact opposite.  I was betting that the SPY would dip below $325 by March 20 expiration, although since puts (and calls) have a thing called time value, the underlying equity does not *have* to dip down that far in order for the put to increase in price and make a profit *as long as it does it well before expiration*.

So for instance Monday, if the market is down another 1% and the SPY drops to around $330, the $325 puts will go to around $4.50 even though they are still $5 out of the money.   If it continues to drop during the week and hits $325, the puts will go to $8 or so.   An actual 10% drop from the $330 area to the $300 area would make the $33,000 worth of puts worth about $250,000.

But you only had 100 of them at $3.30 so $330.  Then it would have been worth 2500?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5881 on: February 22, 2020, 09:33:17 AM »

But you only had 100 of them at $3.30 so $330.  Then it would have been worth 2500?

In general when people say they bought "a call" or "a put" they mean one contract.   A call or put contract represents the right to buy (for a call) or sell (for a put) quantity 100 of the equity (shares).

So buying 100 puts with a $325 strike means I have bought the right to sell 10,000 shares of SPY to someone for a price of $325 each, or $3,250,000.  I don't *have* to sell anything to them, but I have the right to sell 10,000 shares at that price if I choose.  Obviously if SPY is $315 I would choose to sell 10,000 shares (all 100 contracts) at $325.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5882 on: February 22, 2020, 12:45:21 PM »
Gold is back up around $1,650.  Top is in!

I'm oddly reminded of when US Treasury bonds were downgraded. The reaction was a stock selloff and a rush off money into...US Treasury Bonds.

By the way, did you mean gold top is in or US stocks top is in?

I mean, the TOP is in.  Gold told me so.

Just hold it for the dividends.

No dividends in gold.  You just let it go from 1600 to 2000.  Oh Gold top isn't in.

They cut the dividends?  Holy crap SELLSELLSELL

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5883 on: February 22, 2020, 03:13:49 PM »

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

Way to close out with a profit!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5884 on: February 22, 2020, 06:55:02 PM »
Title of that CNN article: "History Says a February Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable"

Contents: "A stock market crash may not be in the cards tomorrow, but it could still be on the horizon, some analysts believe. At some point, the market’s beaming optimism will grow cold. No one can be certain of when a stock market correction will take place."

I guess "some analysts" must be named "History".  And by "inevitable" CNN meant "no one can be certain when".
And the article's author discloses just two positions: long on two tech companies.  So... not exactly a believer in their own writing.

Let me try my hand at this fear mongering:
"10-year P/E approaching dot-com bubble heights"
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5885 on: February 22, 2020, 10:09:33 PM »
Run rabbits run let's keep this sale going.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5886 on: February 23, 2020, 03:13:13 AM »
According to Marketwatch the market is up today because the number of new cases of COVID-19 is dropping. Coronavirus top is in!

(Seriously, I hope so. My employer has an office in China and I'm worried about my coworkers.)

The hell it is.  We just went from a handful of cases to 600 in a week here in South Korea. 

Mrs. D.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5887 on: February 23, 2020, 05:17:09 AM »
Bit of an investing noob here......does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? People are trying to call it before the correction? If not, can someone please explain? TIA.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5888 on: February 23, 2020, 05:36:55 AM »
does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

Mrs. D.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5889 on: February 23, 2020, 05:45:28 AM »
does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

Thanks, markbike. I poked through a few pages to get the gist. Wasn't going to read 118 pages of inside jokes, gifs and graphs. Not a market timer myself, but the allure of being able to sell at just the right moment is pretty tempting. That crystal ball would be worth a lot.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5890 on: February 23, 2020, 08:35:29 AM »
does "top is in" refer to the peak of the stock market for this economic cycle? yes
People are trying to call it before the correction? yes
If not, can someone please explain?

Since it is torturesome to ask you to read THIS thread in full, please refer to the Original Post (OP) of August 2017.  Since then the ORIGINAL POSTER (OP), thorstache, has called THE TOP of the stock market many times. The TOP call is typically folllowed by a rally.

This thread exists to poke fun at market timing/predictions in general.

If you had sold all equities right at the first post, you would have forgone double digit percentage gains.

Thanks, markbike. I poked through a few pages to get the gist. Wasn't going to read 118 pages of inside jokes, gifs and graphs. Not a market timer myself, but the allure of being able to sell at just the right moment is pretty tempting. That crystal ball would be worth a lot.

Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5891 on: February 23, 2020, 10:45:09 AM »
Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5892 on: February 23, 2020, 11:19:27 AM »
There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5893 on: February 23, 2020, 11:34:37 AM »
Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Forever roll top is forever in.


TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5894 on: February 23, 2020, 11:37:42 AM »
There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

Yet another prediction of expected stock market behavior shown to be terribly wrong.

I expect there will be another major crash. I don't claim to know whether it will be tomorrow or 10 years from now.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5895 on: February 23, 2020, 01:09:58 PM »
There was another thread, awhile back (like 1929 I think) where poster Irving Fisher said the market had reached a permanently high plateau.

"The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[26] Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. "

Yet another prediction of expected stock market behavior shown to be terribly wrong.

I expect there will be another major crash. I don't claim to know whether it will be tomorrow or 10 years from now.

Crashes, top-callers and running rabbits are my forever friends--they ensure flash sales on assets time and again. Dry powder and stable revenue streams ftw.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5896 on: February 23, 2020, 01:12:06 PM »
stable revenue streams ftw.

Just make sure that what you think is stable, actually is stable.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5897 on: February 23, 2020, 02:11:04 PM »
stable revenue streams ftw.

Just make sure that what you think is stable, actually is stable.

Agreed!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5898 on: February 23, 2020, 06:37:07 PM »
Read every page of this thread. Just print them out and leave them next to your toilet.

Fold it lengthwise after reading, and you have your supply of double-ply close at hand. ;)

Forever roll top is forever in.


Wow that’s a real thing.  Is it cheaper than regular rolls?

When you said forever roll I thought more like this:


Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5899 on: February 23, 2020, 06:53:19 PM »
Grrr...futures are showing Monday is coming in as a hard crash.   Oh well, who needed another $100,000 on those puts...would just have been more taxes.