Top is in

[aboatguy]

DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ are up again...….. TOP is in for 2/6/2020...

[Exflyboy]

Yup.. That was then.. This is now.

[Monerexia]

Yup.. That was then.. This is now.

fear is back.

[Brother Esau]

Yup.. That was then.. This is now.

fear is back.

ABC is breaking down. XYZ to follow.

[ApacheStache]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eytmj5/dont_doubt_ur_vibe/

This is gold.

Yup, fair to say that just made my week. Thanks for sharing Ender.

[ender]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eytmj5/dont_doubt_ur_vibe/

Holy shit.  What do you think the chances are he puts it all in a low fee index fund and walks away?

When someone wins big like that, the human tendency is not to lower risk, but actually increase risk.  Which usually leads to poor outcomes in the (near) future.

Case in point - if that guy didn't sell (which it doesn't look like he did based on the lack of an "I got out at the right time too" post), he was down $3-5 million the very next day depending on how you look at it. That option actually got up to $150 midday on the day of that post, so he was actually over $6 million at that point if he held on.

Still will have turned ~$125K into over $1M in a week if he gets out at the current price. Risky as hell, but it paid off big this time if he sold or sells before the option goes down again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ezwbve/reports_of_my_death_have_been_greatly_exaggerated/

Who knows if it's someone trolling or not but it's pretty hilarious either way.

[Monerexia]

Yup.. That was then.. This is now.

fear is back.

ABC is breaking down. XYZ to follow.

earnings will be a reality check. :(

[dragoncar]

Yup.. That was then.. This is now.

fear is back.

ABC is breaking down. XYZ to follow.

earnings will be a reality check. :(

Final reality check is in

[Roland of Gilead]

I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

[BigMoneyJim]

r/TopIsInBets

[ender]

r/TopIsInBets

Oh man this would make this thread more epic

[TomTX]

Yes it is market timing, and market timing isn't for most people on here, but it is for some of us, so why scoff?

Because this has been a thread dedicated to scoffing at market timing literally for years?

[Wintergreen78]

Yes it is market timing, and market timing isn't for most people on here, but it is for some of us, so why scoff?

Because this has been a thread dedicated to scoffing at market timing literally for years?

Wait! Is this thread scoffing at market timing? I’ve been using it to decide when to buy and sell stocks. Nobody told me that everyone was being facetious.

[TomTX]

Yes it is market timing, and market timing isn't for most people on here, but it is for some of us, so why scoff?

Because this has been a thread dedicated to scoffing at market timing literally for years?

Wait! Is this thread scoffing at market timing? I’ve been using it to decide when to buy and sell stocks. Nobody told me that everyone was being facetious.

Well, darn. Was I supposed to keep that quiet?

[jeroly]

Yes it is market timing, and market timing isn't for most people on here, but it is for some of us, so why scoff?

Because this has been a thread dedicated to scoffing at market timing literally for years?

Wait! Is this thread scoffing at market timing? I’ve been using it to decide when to buy and sell stocks. Nobody told me that everyone was being facetious.

If you’ve been using Thorstach posts as buy signals, I would guess that you’ve done pretty well.

[Monerexia]

Yes it is market timing, and market timing isn't for most people on here, but it is for some of us, so why scoff?

Because this has been a thread dedicated to scoffing at market timing literally for years?

Wait! Is this thread scoffing at market timing? I’ve been using it to decide when to buy and sell stocks. Nobody told me that everyone was being facetious.

If you’ve been using Thorstach posts as buy signals, I would guess that you’ve done pretty well.

Yep on April 11, 2017 when Top was in Dow closed at 20,658.02..

[BicycleB]

Scoffers! You do not understand. The market's rise has only been a ploy to lull you. You will lose your investments and pay for your facetiousness in silent woe. After the plunge, you will not have the courage to post here. You will not even have internet. Sell when Thorstach bids you, or panhandle for pennies after the crash. Those are your choices.

TL;DR - Top is in.

[DavidAnnArbor]

Wow, Thorstach's posts are almost all on this thread to post when the Top is in. No other interests seem to be indicated, just a single minded focus on market timing.

[solon]

@thorstach, who are you? The not knowing is killing me!

Are you one of the mods? Are you @sol? Are you Warren Buffet?

[Rural]

@thorstach, who are you? The not knowing is killing me!

Are you one of the mods? Are you @sol? Are you Warren Buffet?

Could always be Pete, you know.

[TomTX]

@thorstach, who are you? The not knowing is killing me!

Are you one of the mods? Are you @sol? Are you Warren Buffet?

Could always be Pete, you know.

That would actually make a lot of sense. :)

[BicycleB]

Thorstach is a fundamental emanation from the universe itself, a reflection of light waves from the bull on Wall Street transformed into internet electrons for our enlightenment.

[wienerdog]

Top is in.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/09/ray-dalio-billionaire-hedge-fund-capitalism

[BigMoneyJim]

Top is in.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/09/ray-dalio-billionaire-hedge-fund-capitalism

<checks S&P this morning> ... Ok so we're still doing this?

Also, peeked at the article. Today I learned "Pharrell Williams hat" is a thing. (But not in the 1930s, so clearly the article has missed some leading indicators.)

[BigMoneyJim]

Ugh, missed my more optimal chance to say:

Pharrell Williams hat top is in.

[DadJokes]

Ugh, missed my more optimal chance to say:

Pharrell Williams hat top is in.

Better than top hats being in.

[Maenad]

Wow, Thorstach's posts are almost all on this thread to post when the Top is in. No other interests seem to be indicated, just a single minded focus on market timing.

That's why I've long suspected a bot.

[solon]

Wow, Thorstach's posts are almost all on this thread to post when the Top is in. No other interests seem to be indicated, just a single minded focus on market timing.

That's why I've long suspected a bot.

I don't think he's a bot. Check out his earliest posts: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/profile/?u=34895;area=showposts;start=50

[wienerdog]

final top is in

Final top is in.

So one was the final top and the other was the Final top?

[aspiringnomad]

final top is in

Final top is in.

So one was the final top and the other was the Final top?

Please refer to page 115 herein. As you may know, this thread doesn't tolerate repetitive repetition.

[dragoncar]

final top is in

Final top is in.

So one was the final top and the other was the Final top?

Please refer to page 115 herein. As you may know, this thread doesn't tolerate repetitive repetition.

There is this theory of the Moebius.  A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape.  So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

[frugalnacho]

Meobius top is in.  Again.

[solon]

Is that why the top keeps inning?

Or does the in keep topping?

[Exflyboy]

3352 at the close!

[Brother Esau]

A new Esau Top, thank you thorstach!

[Davnasty]

final top is in

Final top is in.

So one was the final top and the other was the Final top?

Please refer to page 115 herein. As you may know, this thread doesn't tolerate repetitive repetition.

Redundancy will not be tolerated. final top is in; see pg 115. Don't make us repeat ourselves again.

[aspiringnomad]

Meobius top is in.  Again.

Meowbius top is in. Again.

[dragoncar]

Fun fact:  blacktops are actually orange

[aboatguy]

So today is not the Top because the final time was already in????     

[aboatguy]

Fun fact:  blacktops are actually orange

  Can an orange blacktop be Mustachian?

[hadabeardonce]

ttfn = This is the Top For Now

I'm predicting US stock markets will be flat on Monday, Feb 17th.

[BigMoneyJim]

Presidents Day top will be in Feb 17 confirmed.

Also, I just noticed: reddit top is in:

[JAYSLOL]

Did we reach top Top yet?

[Clean Shaven]

Fun fact:  blacktops are actually orange

  Can an orange blacktop be Mustachian?

Orange blacktop top is in?

https://images.reverb.com/image/upload/s--C5NhMAUo--/a_exif,c_limit,e_unsharp_mask:80,f_auto,fl_progressive,g_south,h_620,q_90,w_620/v1367542008/chphowexvhdwurtw8zkw.jpg

[ender]

The crazy thing is the SP500 could drop 20% and still only go back to where it was around 2.5 years ago.

[jeroly]

So today is not the Top because the final time was already in????   

If Thorstach is Australian, we may still be waiting for the Grand Final Top.

[maizefolk]

There is this theory of the Moebius.  A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape.  So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

I see we both watched the same episode of start trek last night.

Either that or you have a weakness for early 90s british electronica.

[aspiringnomad]

I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

[Brother Esau]

I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

So, in other words, Top is In?