Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1146945 times)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5350 on: December 08, 2019, 12:54:29 PM »
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.

Market timing! That's the ticket!*

*To dramatically underperforming the market indices.

*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.

Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds.  I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors.  With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5351 on: December 09, 2019, 07:30:26 AM »
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.

Market timing! That's the ticket!*

*To dramatically underperforming the market indices.

*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.

Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds.  I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors.  With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.

I used to work with a guy that would swear up and down that he could beat the house at craps.  He was apparently a very skilled craps player.  The argument that he was mid 40's, living in his mother's basement, and washing dishes at a grocery store working alongside a teenage me wasn't enough to break the delusion that he could make money at craps.   

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5352 on: December 09, 2019, 09:40:55 AM »
Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds. 

True. The problem is that there are a lot more people who think they can beat the odds than who actually can. And when you're on the internet, there's almost no way for someone to actually prove they're being honest if they claim to beat the market. I think we all have numerous stories of liars we've encountered, whether they lied to themselves or to others.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5353 on: December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5354 on: December 09, 2019, 10:52:35 AM »
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.

Market timing! That's the ticket!*

*To dramatically underperforming the market indices.

*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.

Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds.  I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors.  With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.

Caught you! I can tell you are just making up you craps story to sound impressive on the internet.

Everyone knows winners get chicken dinners.

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5355 on: December 10, 2019, 05:43:08 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5356 on: December 10, 2019, 05:52:11 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5357 on: December 10, 2019, 06:00:32 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

That's TOPPS.

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5358 on: December 10, 2019, 09:11:11 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5359 on: December 10, 2019, 11:28:04 AM »
1909 Honus Wagner card is considered the most valuable card in existence. Thus Honus = Topps!

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5360 on: December 10, 2019, 12:12:51 PM »
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.

Market timing! That's the ticket!*

*To dramatically underperforming the market indices.

*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.

Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds.  I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors.  With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.

I used to work with a guy that would swear up and down that he could beat the house at craps.  He was apparently a very skilled craps player.  The argument that he was mid 40's, living in his mother's basement, and washing dishes at a grocery store working alongside a teenage me wasn't enough to break the delusion that he could make money at craps.

Washing dishes at a grocery store?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5361 on: December 10, 2019, 12:57:15 PM »
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.

Market timing! That's the ticket!*

*To dramatically underperforming the market indices.

*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.

Exactly.  Some people just donít understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds.  I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors.  With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.

I used to work with a guy that would swear up and down that he could beat the house at craps.  He was apparently a very skilled craps player.  The argument that he was mid 40's, living in his mother's basement, and washing dishes at a grocery store working alongside a teenage me wasn't enough to break the delusion that he could make money at craps.

Washing dishes at a grocery store?

Deli department.  Lots of prepared dishes and what not.

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5362 on: December 10, 2019, 02:54:10 PM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.
Upper Deck printed approximately one zillion of those things. I think it was worth 40 bucks when I was in middle school. I wish I had been buying index funds instead of baseball cards.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5363 on: December 10, 2019, 06:03:14 PM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.

My first lesson in market timing. So many Griffey cards, so much wasted paper route income.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5364 on: December 10, 2019, 06:32:13 PM »
it's hard to imagine us as poised for a huge bull run-up right now.

... me in another thread in September 2017. S&P was around 2520.

I feel the same today at 3132.52. Top is always in.

Lucky for me I don't market time.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5365 on: December 10, 2019, 07:28:48 PM »
it's hard to imagine us as poised for a huge bull run-up right now.

... me in another thread in September 2017. S&P was around 2520.

I feel the same today at 3132.52. Top is always in.

Lucky for me I don't market time.
Me in Dec of 2012.    Glad I didn't pay attention to my opinion...

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5366 on: December 11, 2019, 01:21:56 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.

My first lesson in market timing. So many Griffey cards, so much wasted paper route income.

Change baseball cards for comic books and that's my early teen years.  I sold one comic book a few years ago for $300 because they made a movie about it. The rest (a couple hundred comics) I sold for less than what I paid for them.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5367 on: December 11, 2019, 03:51:44 AM »
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!

Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?

Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.

I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.

I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.

My first lesson in market timing. So many Griffey cards, so much wasted paper route income.

Change baseball cards for comic books and that's my early teen years.  I sold one comic book a few years ago for $300 because they made a movie about it. The rest (a couple hundred comics) I sold for less than what I paid for them.

I had a similar experience with my comic book collection. I probably paid $1000 for all the comics I bought back in the 90ís and got like $300 back out of them when I sold them last year. Comic book top was in 25 years ago :D

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5368 on: December 11, 2019, 03:58:46 AM »
it's hard to imagine us as poised for a huge bull run-up right now.

... me in another thread in September 2017. S&P was around 2520.

I feel the same today at 3132.52. Top is always in.

Lucky for me I don't market time.

At some point in the future, we will long for the days when the S&P 500 was cheap at only at 3130ish. Iím sure weíll see a bear market that will take it well under 3000 again, but Iím also sure weíll all be handsomely rewarded for our patience, especially if you keep buying at regular intervals.

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5369 on: December 11, 2019, 08:42:27 AM »
1909 Honus Wagner card is considered the most valuable card in existence. Thus Honus = Topps!

Beautiful image of an iconic card.

I remember when Wayne Gretzky bought his.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5370 on: December 12, 2019, 08:11:32 AM »
Two new tops, how's this happen  is the bottom in?

Where's Thorstache  with the answers?

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5371 on: December 12, 2019, 08:24:10 AM »
Two new tops, how's this happen  is the bottom in?

Where's Thorstache  with the answers?

I'm all out of SPY, I'm so lost without you
 I know you were right, believing for so long

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5372 on: December 12, 2019, 07:45:39 PM »
Bonus season....

To lump some max out our IRAs, or dollar cost average over the year...
Decisions decisions, so many tops to consider...

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5373 on: December 12, 2019, 08:18:44 PM »
I get to direct all of my bonus into my 401k if I wish. That means the Top will be in (again) in early January.

matchewed

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5374 on: December 13, 2019, 06:17:26 AM »
Hello, two things are coming together.
1. It's likely sale of my home will be complete before end of year.
2. I will rebalance investment portfolio to less risk, to include cash from home.

The profit from the house is totally wiped out, and then some, from cost of repairs and other fees.

How much of those losses can be used to offset capital gains taxes?

You might want to start your own thread and post some details.

wingfold2001

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5375 on: December 13, 2019, 06:46:00 AM »
I live in Japan but get paid in dollars. I remember yen increased in value by a lot in 2009 compared to the dollar.

How crazy would it be to keep enough yen in my Japanese savings account for a year or two's worth of daily purchases?

I'm less than 10 years from FI.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5376 on: December 13, 2019, 07:23:25 AM »
TOP IS IN! on the yen to dollar exchange rate.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5377 on: December 13, 2019, 08:13:19 AM »
My projected UK pension bennies look much healthier today..:)

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5378 on: December 13, 2019, 08:19:31 AM »
I live in Japan but get paid in dollars. I remember yen increased in value by a lot in 2009 compared to the dollar.

How crazy would it be to keep enough yen in my Japanese savings account for a year or two's worth of daily purchases?

I'm less than 10 years from FI.

That would essentially be the same as selling dollars and buying JPY in the FX market. However, as you actually live in Japan and you have your income in USD but a lot of expenses in JPY one could argue that doing that would decrease your FX risk. As of now you hold the risk that the JPY appreciates and your USD becomes less and less worth for you in Japan (and the opposite if the JPY deprecates, of course).

Selling USD and buying JPY has a negative carry of about 2% per year as interest rates in the US are higher than in JPY. Your JPY would earn zero interest, so you loose the interest income on the USD you sell. The spot exchange rate for USDJPY is 109.5 at mom, the market rate for the same in 2y (the FX forward rate) is 105.2 which doesn not reflect any opinion on the rate going up or down, its just math based on the interest rate differential between JPY and USD for 2 years (1.65% for USD and -0,45% for JPY in case you wondered) - these are not your deposit rates but the relevant rates in the financial markets for calculating the forward exchange rate).

« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 08:29:54 AM by habaneroNorway »

wingfold2001

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5379 on: December 13, 2019, 08:41:30 AM »
I live in Japan but get paid in dollars. I remember yen increased in value by a lot in 2009 compared to the dollar.

How crazy would it be to keep enough yen in my Japanese savings account for a year or two's worth of daily purchases?

I'm less than 10 years from FI.

That would essentially be the same as selling dollars and buying JPY in the FX market. However, as you actually live in Japan and you have your income in USD but a lot of expenses in JPY one could argue that doing that would decrease your FX risk. As of now you hold the risk that the JPY appreciates and your USD becomes less and less worth for you in Japan (and the opposite if the JPY deprecates, of course).

Selling USD and buying JPY has a negative carry of about 2% per year as interest rates in the US are higher than in JPY. Your JPY would earn zero interest, so you loose the interest income on the USD you sell. The spot exchange rate for USDJPY is 109.5 at mom, the market rate for the same in 2y (the FX forward rate) is 106.2 which doesn not reflect any opinion on the rate going up or down, its just math based on the interest rate differential between JPY and USD for 2 years (1.65% for USD and -0,40% for JPY in case you wondered) - these are not your deposit rates but the relevant rates in the financial markets for calculating the forward exchange rate).

Well said! It'd be useful even without a market top. But yeah, no interest on savings in Japan.

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5380 on: December 13, 2019, 11:51:00 AM »
Equity markets are hard / impossible to predict, but the underlying trend is that they rise so the expected value at some point in the future is higher than what it is today. Then shit might happen inbetween, but it has a positive expected rate of return.

For FX markets the expected return is zero as it's possible to calculate the forward exchange rate and by a no-arbitrage line of reasoning there is only one price at which you can lock in a future FX rate and that rate is given by the interest rate differential. The actual FX rate in the future is pretty much guaranteed to be something else, but buy exchanging one currency for another you are for all practical purposes entering a zero-return game. Actual returns will be positive or negative of course.

As a side note - if you think equity markets are analyzed to death and liquid as hell, try FX markets. In terms of volume traded it is the largest market in the world as there are massive underlying commercial flows (think exporters/importers and such).

If the overall rule is Don't try to be clever in the stock market, it's DON'T TRY TO BE CLEVER IN FX MARKETS.

For a brief moment top was in in stocks today. Then it wasn't. Maybe it will be later today. Or tomorrow. Where is the final top?

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5381 on: December 13, 2019, 12:30:55 PM »
Can the top please be in on detailed, non-joking discussions of foreign exchange rates in this thread?

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5382 on: December 13, 2019, 01:42:50 PM »
Can the top please be in on detailed, non-joking discussions of foreign exchange rates in this thread?

Yes, back to the shenanigans!

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5383 on: December 13, 2019, 04:25:52 PM »
Can the top please be in on detailed, non-joking discussions of foreign exchange rates in this thread?

Yes, back to the shenanigans!
Trump photo = xenophobia top

ice_beard

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5384 on: December 14, 2019, 04:59:50 PM »
I sold a literal trunk full of baseball cards for $100.  The trunk itself cost like $50. 
I kept my "good" cards which might also net another one or two hundred bucks if I could find someone who would buy them.  Also many papers delivered very early in the morning on a bike, driveways shoveled and many many lawns mowed. 

If I had any financial knowledge as a kid I could have gone to college and been quite comfortable.  Instead I went with a 13" tv with a remote and not much else.   

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5385 on: December 15, 2019, 04:17:15 PM »
It's a double top on Topps!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5386 on: December 16, 2019, 09:43:03 AM »
Three new peaks, but I don't believe the tops are in

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5387 on: December 16, 2019, 11:24:53 AM »
Looks like only Twin Peaks today

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5388 on: December 16, 2019, 05:15:48 PM »
Looks like eight peaks to me

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5389 on: December 16, 2019, 07:05:39 PM »
Looks like eight peaks to me

No peaking!

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5390 on: December 16, 2019, 09:36:07 PM »
Upper Deck printed approximately one zillion of those things. I think it was worth 40 bucks when I was in middle school. I wish I had been buying index funds instead of baseball cards.

Well, you should have been dollar-cost averaging Griffey Jr. rookie cards since then.

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5391 on: December 17, 2019, 12:56:13 PM »
It's the twin Topps

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5392 on: December 17, 2019, 01:39:53 PM »
Won't be long until S&P 3200! Can you feel it?

ExitViaTheCashRamp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5393 on: December 17, 2019, 02:04:04 PM »
I'm very excited. My top is off.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5394 on: December 18, 2019, 12:09:57 AM »

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5395 on: December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AM »
Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.
I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.


nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5396 on: December 18, 2019, 05:21:23 AM »
Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.
I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.

oh, we will...  :-P

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5397 on: December 18, 2019, 07:22:52 AM »
I'm very excited. My top is off.

No pic means it didn't happen.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5398 on: December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AM »
Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.
I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.

Based on what?

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5399 on: December 18, 2019, 08:29:42 AM »
Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.
I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.

Based on what?

The great prophet Thorstach