Equity markets are hard / impossible to predict, but the underlying trend is that they rise so the expected value at some point in the future is higher than what it is today. Then shit might happen inbetween, but it has a positive expected rate of return.

For FX markets the expected return is zero as it's possible to calculate the forward exchange rate and by a no-arbitrage line of reasoning there is only one price at which you can lock in a future FX rate and that rate is given by the interest rate differential. The actual FX rate in the future is pretty much guaranteed to be something else, but buy exchanging one currency for another you are for all practical purposes entering a zero-return game. Actual returns will be positive or negative of course.

As a side note - if you think equity markets are analyzed to death and liquid as hell, try FX markets. In terms of volume traded it is the largest market in the world as there are massive underlying commercial flows (think exporters/importers and such).

If the overall rule is Don't try to be clever in the stock market, it's DON'T TRY TO BE CLEVER IN FX MARKETS.

For a brief moment top was in in stocks today. Then it wasn't. Maybe it will be later today. Or tomorrow. Where is the final top?