The fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheet
Quote from: dragoncar on July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PMThe fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheetRight? I should have done it yesterday.
Quote from: Steeze on July 31, 2019, 08:06:22 PMQuote from: dragoncar on July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PMThe fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheetRight? I should have done it yesterday.I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!
Quote from: Threshkin on July 31, 2019, 09:06:20 PMQuote from: Steeze on July 31, 2019, 08:06:22 PMQuote from: dragoncar on July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PMThe fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheetRight? I should have done it yesterday.I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top. That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.
Quote from: dragoncar on August 01, 2019, 01:10:21 AMQuote from: Threshkin on July 31, 2019, 09:06:20 PMQuote from: Steeze on July 31, 2019, 08:06:22 PMQuote from: dragoncar on July 31, 2019, 07:05:59 PMThe fed really screwed up my end-of-month NW spreadsheetRight? I should have done it yesterday.I am glad I only update my spreadsheet once every 6 months!I'm starting to think I should only update it at the top. That way the top will always be in, as it is and should be.Good plan. I'm down 20k! Like almost a percent, top better not be in.
Was looking like the Top wasn’t in... but then it was... it always was. thorstach, you’re up, give us the good news!
Like any good antagonist, the top knows how to set bait. It knows to flit, oscillate, pause - to make you think there is some semblance of hope. Then, crushingly, cometh The Fall.You have been warned.
Top is in
Dang. Down over 30k! For me it's a fun post to make on MMM. For some that's a life changing amount of money. This game is nuts.
Y'all are funny. We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.
Quote from: thorstach on August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PMTop is inYes! My prayers are answered! And my predictions have come to pass!
Quote from: JAYSLOL on August 01, 2019, 10:27:08 PMQuote from: thorstach on August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PMTop is inYes! My prayers are answered! And my predictions have come to pass!Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?
A 15-20% correction would take us back to December 2018 levels, and basically mean we've been flat for over 2 years.I know everyone gets nervous that we haven't had a recession in a decade, but I don't see the market as overvalued when you look at the trend.
Quote from: 2Birds1Stone on August 02, 2019, 03:46:48 AMY'all are funny. We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever. The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!
Quote from: frugledoc on August 02, 2019, 05:25:24 AMQuote from: 2Birds1Stone on August 02, 2019, 03:46:48 AMY'all are funny. We could use a healthy 15-20% correction.> 20% so we can stop all the nonsense about longest bull run ever. The correction in December stopped a whisker short of a technical bear unfortunately!I thought the S&P did just barely hit 20%. I think the nonsense has switched to "longest economic expansion ever", so they can milk that one until the GDP actually goes negative. Then if it only goes negative for 1 quarter, the narrative will change to "longest time without a recession". The goalposts can always be moved. Much like the top.
Quote from: Bateaux on August 02, 2019, 12:16:43 AMDang. Down over 30k! For me it's a fun post to make on MMM. For some that's a life changing amount of money. This game is nuts.this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.
Quote from: theoverlook on August 01, 2019, 12:43:13 PMSo many bad assumptions on the author's part...A big one is assuming 6% return then removing inflation. S&P 500 has returned an average of around 7% .. after inflation over the last 90 years. That's around 9.8% before inflation.Another has been covered - the taxes. They would pay 0% in taxes, on either dividends or capital gains, unless they have significant income from elsewhere in which case their withdrawals would drop.Basically yet another "let's work as hard as we can to support the conclusion I've already made before running the numbers" type article.that would be great if we all had 90 years until we had to take withdrawals, but even the most mustachian have been investing maybe 40 if we were starting at 20 and going FI at 60 and we have another serious correction coming off the FED rally since 2009.i'm sorry but 9.8 percent return is a very financial instition number not realistic; but i'm going to let this lie as I know this will go no where here; I mainly come to watch the top is in thread anymore; its entertaining.BTW, you all dollar cost averagers have now gained less than 1% since the market selloff last October, now 10 months ago; but yeah; the s+p averages 9.8% yearly.
So many bad assumptions on the author's part...A big one is assuming 6% return then removing inflation. S&P 500 has returned an average of around 7% .. after inflation over the last 90 years. That's around 9.8% before inflation.Another has been covered - the taxes. They would pay 0% in taxes, on either dividends or capital gains, unless they have significant income from elsewhere in which case their withdrawals would drop.Basically yet another "let's work as hard as we can to support the conclusion I've already made before running the numbers" type article.
Quote from: solon on August 02, 2019, 08:52:45 AMQuote from: JAYSLOL on August 01, 2019, 10:27:08 PMQuote from: thorstach on August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PMTop is inYes! My prayers are answered! And my predictions have come to pass!Is anybody adding this to the chart of thorstach posts?It’s been a bear market of thorstach posts for so long, hopefully he posts a bunch and we get a long deserved bull market of posts
Quote from: Cabaka on August 02, 2019, 12:37:20 PMQuote from: Bateaux on August 02, 2019, 12:16:43 AMDang. Down over 30k! For me it's a fun post to make on MMM. For some that's a life changing amount of money. This game is nuts.this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.Zzzzzz no pain here, think long term not short term
this thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.
Quote from: Cabaka on August 02, 2019, 12:37:20 PMthis thread is going to be fun to watch if we are about to hit two 20% declines within a year. personally, being silly moving average investor; I calculate(I have money in brokerages all over) from oct 2018 to now; I've made over 12% using a moving average. everyone here is at a loss unless you started investing in January 2019.I do not like schadenfreude on others, but as I am seen here as some sort of idiot market timer for using moving averages which has bee around for decades; yes; i'll enjoy reading about some financial pain here.I don't understand this statement? Was it supposed to be qualified somehow?Because I can assure you I started investing before January 2019 and our return is definitely positive.
Quote from: thorstach on August 01, 2019, 09:44:58 PMTop is inYes!! He's back
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!
Top was in last week!Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..
Quote from: freedomfightergal on August 05, 2019, 07:51:43 AMTop was in last week!Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..It's going to be at least a year till we see new tops.