Top is in

[secondcor521]

ironically we are almost back to the bottom of when this started in April 2017 ....not yet though... and the top call was missed by almost everyone even thor.

???

The S&P is up over 7.5% since this thread was started, and that's ignoring dividends.  Not historically fantastic for ~21 months, but not bad and certainly not flat.

(Source:  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1491890400&period2=1546585200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d)

[Radagast]

Since thorstach has left us in this, our time off greatest need, I thought I'd add this chart, which shows that rapid stock market increases are indeed a sign that the end times are upon us. Stolen from the oddstats twitter feed.

Looks like 90% of those were associated with bottoms! Which means that top was in!

[maizeman]

This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

[35andFI]

This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.

Oh my goodness that’s hilarious!

[mies]

This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.

Oh my goodness that’s hilarious!

Is that a comic you made Maizeman?

[Brother Esau]

This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

This belongs on that thread called "Best post I saw today on MMM". Or called something like that. Brilliant!

[ysette9]

It has an xkcd-type feel to it. Love it.

[JAYSLOL]

This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

This belongs on that thread called "Best post I saw today on MMM". Or called something like that. Brilliant!

+1

[thorstach]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/imf-warns-world-dangerously-unprepared-upcoming-global-recession

[frugalnacho]

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

pay wall'd

[DavidAnnArbor]

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

[dougules]

So let me see if I've got this right.  There's a crash coming, and we're woefully unprepared for it.  Doesn't that basically describe all of economic history?

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

Isn't that the point of all 84 pages of this thread?

[DS]

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

That's the Prophet you are talking to. The One who called the Top.

[UnleashHell]

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

wow.
He gave us this thread.


I can't think of a greater individual contribution to the forum.

shame on you SIR!

[BicycleB]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/imf-warns-world-dangerously-unprepared-upcoming-global-recession

Not everyone is reading the same Thorstach, alas. Above, after his 10:50:06 am edit, the Great Prophet of the Top has offered a clear message of doom that can be read without paywall, without doubt. Only the simplest of browsers are needed. The message is a clarion call, a tolling bell of the highest order.

ZeroHedge! Tyler Durden! Robert Shiller quotes about 1929 narratives developing! Open your ears, my friends, the Top Bell tolls for thee.

[DavidAnnArbor]

We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

[nereo]

We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

[RWD]

Oh wait - wrong thread.

Toupée is in!

[Maenad]

This is typical short-term thinking.

It's what we humans are best at.

[dougules]

We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

Yes, this sounds way too much like a serious discussion. 

[DS]

We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

Yes, this sounds way too much like a serious discussion.

TLDR; Top is in.

[ysette9]

There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”

[Glenstache]

There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”

Well, from the feel of the market, I'm pretty sure the top is in.

[nereo]

There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”

Well, from the feel of the market, I'm pretty sure the top is in.

Quit groping the market Glenstache.  Have you not decency, sir?

[Steeze]

#topisintoo

[thorstach]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

[aspiringnomad]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

[Glenstache]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I'm pretty sure we are supposed to blame it on Millenials. It simply must be their fault, somehow. Generation top is in.

[ILikeDividends]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

A pop-up from this URL warned of a virus and "asked me" to click "ok" to "run a virus check."

Of course I immediately closed the browser tab, without clicking "ok", and then started a full virus scan from my own installed security suite.

Thanks, thorstach, but I don't think I'll be clicking on any more of your links from now on.  Anyone else who has visited this link would be prudent to run a security scan as well; using their own security software--not from that URL--of course.

[Steeze]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

[JAYSLOL]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

[dragoncar]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind. 

[aspiringnomad]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

[JAYSLOL]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

[maizeman]

I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

That's why I read zerohedge as well (when I read it, which is rarely). If you're in one of the moods where you feel like the world is coming apart, there is actually something comforting about reading about all the different and various reasons to despair.

The key is realizing that you really are deciding what you want to feel first and then going to a place that's going to find ways to reinforce that feelings (which is sounds like you do), not thinking that the stories on zerohedge are an accurate picture of the world (which is sounds like your friend may be falling into).

[JAYSLOL]

I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

That's why I read zerohedge as well (when I read it, which is rarely). If you're in one of the moods where you feel like the world is coming apart, there is actually something comforting about reading about all the different and various reasons to despair.

The key is realizing that you really are deciding what you want to feel first and then going to a place that's going to find ways to reinforce that feelings (which is sounds like you do), not thinking that the stories on zerohedge are an accurate picture of the world (which is sounds like your friend may be falling into).

Yeah, mostly I'll give in and read one to better understand what they're going through, and to remind myself it may not be (entirely) their fault for their feelings/actions/comments.  I also like to read other opinions (sometimes even if they're highly biased or even manipulative) to make sure I'm not the one that's crazy. 

[dougules]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

The article actually seems reasonable to me.  If you read it, it's not actually endorsing market timing.  The conclusion it comes to is "Even if you make no moves in your portfolio or investment strategy, you should probably be girding yourself emotionally for a less benign environment."  We have had a big run up the past several years and people have forgotten what the other side of the coin feels like.  We're going to have another crash at some point, and your own psychology is the real danger to you.  [/serious]

[Clean Shaven]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

A pop-up from this URL warned of a virus and "asked me" to click "ok" to "run a virus check."

Of course I immediately closed the browser tab, without clicking "ok", and then started a full virus scan from my own installed security suite.

Thanks, thorstach, but I don't think I'll be clicking on any more of your links from now on.  Anyone else who has visited this link would be prudent to run a security scan as well; using their own security software--not from that URL--of course.

Virus top is in.

[Glenstache]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

I think that the correct usage is: Red convertible top is down.

[JAYSLOL]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

I think that the correct usage is: Red convertible top is down.

Not in the weather I'm currently experiencing, the Red Convertible-Top is in... the garage along with the rest of the car

[ysette9]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

Right.  If you randomly choose another 20-year period things look quite a bit different. I happened to select 1995-2015 and got an annualized return of 9.644% with dividends reinvested. I wouldn’t complain about that.

[brooklynmoney]

My favorite thing I ever read was in an OpEd in the Wall Street journal where the writer called something he read the stupidest thing he ever read and then said and I read ZeroHedge haha.

[dragoncar]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

Yeah, who a I to be engaged by a blog post?  Fuck me right?

[aspiringnomad]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

Yeah, who a I to be engaged by a blog post?  Fuck me right?

Engage away, my friend. Engage to your heart's desire.

[techwiz]

[JAYSLOL]

Aaand we're back

[solon]

Thought this list of videos from Yahoo Finance was kinda funny, in a shaking-my-head kind of way.

[ClutchBeta]

AAPL top is in!

[JAYSLOL]

AAPL top is in!

Oh sure, they say from Washington State, but they're only designed there, they are grown in China. 

[2Birds1Stone]

Earnings is about to leave a lot of people salty over the next month!