Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3139656 times)

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2400 on: February 27, 2018, 02:35:24 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2401 on: February 27, 2018, 03:53:51 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Hallelujah he's back!

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2402 on: February 27, 2018, 04:18:54 PM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

I'm confused.  You think the jinx is in because today the market gave back half of yesterday's gains?  We're still up compared to two days ago, and ten days ago, and three weeks ago.  I'm not seeing the problem here.


Half? Yesterday (2/26) we went from (S&P) 2747 to 2779, today (2/27) we went from 2780 to 2744, looks like we gave back 100% of yesterday's gains and then some.

The problem, and it is a serious one, is that the market God frowns on these jinxes as an act of mockery! We must perform ritual sacrifices at once!

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2403 on: February 27, 2018, 05:18:37 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

thorstach lives!


matchewed

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2404 on: February 27, 2018, 05:52:25 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2405 on: February 27, 2018, 06:45:44 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

There was a decline, which thorstach used to retrospectively call the top.  Then the market started to climb again, but had a down day before reaching its former peak.  The day before the new down day now retrospectively defines a second top.  Since it was not as high as the first top, if you draw a line connecting the first top and second top, the slope is negative.  Hence the downtrend comment.

Of course, it makes just as much sense to do the whole thing in reverse, and wait for a second up day and then declare the bottom is in, defining an up trend.  But thorstach knows that, and is just here for the lulz like the rest of us.

matchewed

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2406 on: February 27, 2018, 07:06:58 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

There was a decline, which thorstach used to retrospectively call the top.  Then the market started to climb again, but had a down day before reaching its former peak.  The day before the new down day now retrospectively defines a second top.  Since it was not as high as the first top, if you draw a line connecting the first top and second top, the slope is negative.  Hence the downtrend comment.

Of course, it makes just as much sense to do the whole thing in reverse, and wait for a second up day and then declare the bottom is in, defining an up trend.  But thorstach knows that, and is just here for the lulz like the rest of us.

You take your logic and explanations and something something something...

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2407 on: February 27, 2018, 07:31:02 PM »
I wish you guys to the south could see the top from up here with the $C on top of the top!  Tip top.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2408 on: February 27, 2018, 10:04:17 PM »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2409 on: February 27, 2018, 11:23:25 PM »
Fibonacci memoization top is down

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2410 on: February 27, 2018, 11:34:56 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Is a defined downtrend the same as a "confirmed downtrend"?  Or is it just a regual downtrend, unconfirmed and somewhat ill defined?  Also, I think you meant to say "the mother of all lower tops is in". 

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2411 on: February 27, 2018, 11:51:45 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend
Is a defined downtrend the same as a "confirmed downtrend"?  Or is it just a regual downtrend, unconfirmed and somewhat ill defined?  Also, I think you meant to say "the mother of all lower tops is in".
It's official. The Mother of All Lower Tops is in.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2412 on: February 28, 2018, 08:59:18 AM »
I'm pretty sure thorstach=sol

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2413 on: February 28, 2018, 09:14:50 AM »
If the mother of all tops is in, do we have to wait until the top reaches adulthood?

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2414 on: February 28, 2018, 09:20:27 AM »
I'm pretty sure thorstach=sol

I am only thorstach in the sense that we are all thorstach.

But I'm not actually thorstach.  I don't have any alternate IDs on the forum.  I am always me when I'm here.

I have, however, been following this thread pretty closely for almost s year now, and I think I've identified the pattern.  Thorstach only calls the top on days when there is a significant market decline, which means he always misses the actual top, and isn't very useful as a trade signal. That's why somebody above pointed out that we have already recovered to the point at which thorstach called the top, even though we haven't yet reached the value at which the market peaked.  I think this is a useful lesson in market timing. Even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, it's hard to make money timing the market.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2415 on: February 28, 2018, 09:50:01 AM »



DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2416 on: February 28, 2018, 09:53:10 AM »
That's why somebody above pointed out that we have already recovered to the point at which thorstach called the top, even though we haven't yet reached the value at which the market peaked.  I think this is a useful lesson in market timing. Even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, it's hard to make money timing the market.

You get a cookie.


Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2417 on: February 28, 2018, 10:02:56 AM »
Don't be selfish

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2418 on: February 28, 2018, 10:57:54 AM »
We've hit the bottom on this thread.  OCSM (Oprah-Cookie-Simpson Meme) factor is way up, and thorstach posts are maintaining their previous levels. 

By the River

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2419 on: February 28, 2018, 12:56:06 PM »
I used to have a good life...I'd check the market every month or so to see how my investments were going and maybe hear financial news once a week that would give the Dow closing.  Then, a month ago I discovered this thread...now, I pull up the stock market ticker on my phone daily just so I can say "Top is in."  Life is hell...

BTW, Top is in!   

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2420 on: February 28, 2018, 01:27:26 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2421 on: February 28, 2018, 01:39:47 PM »
This thread is a work of art.  Performance art, yes, but art nonetheless.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2422 on: February 28, 2018, 02:03:34 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2423 on: February 28, 2018, 03:34:03 PM »
This thread is a work of art.  Performance art, yes, but art nonetheless.

I always thought this thread could do well as a template to make a financial comedy tv series about a bunch of people at coffee shop who talk about the market.  Sol could be the guy you never see in the same frame as thorstach, anisotropy could be the character that goes on opinionated rants that your never sure if they are ridiculous or genius, id probably be the weird barista that inserts into every conversation and thorstach would be that guy that comes in all the time just to say his way-over-used catchphrase "Hey guys, the Top is In!" (Cue audience laugh-track)

Seradoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2424 on: February 28, 2018, 06:08:15 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

Bottom virgins?  We've all seen the top.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2425 on: February 28, 2018, 08:23:36 PM »
The problem, and it is a serious one, is that the market God frowns on these jinxes as an act of mockery! We must perform ritual sacrifices at once!
Slaughter a goat, and leave it on your keyboard. 

The top is merely an illusion blinding the heathen.  The One True Top is an ascension above all others.

So it has been written.  So it shall be done.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2018, 08:29:06 PM by ILikeDividends »

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2426 on: February 28, 2018, 10:20:00 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

Bottom virgins? We've all seen the top.

Naughty!

big_owl

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2427 on: March 01, 2018, 08:02:34 AM »
Don't be selfish

Everybody getting sump'n



Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2428 on: March 01, 2018, 12:53:06 PM »
With today's idiotic tariff announcement....

METAL TOP IS IN!


anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2429 on: March 01, 2018, 01:00:18 PM »
Minions,

Today I want to mainly reflect on our past lessons.

In our last sermon, merely days before the market God reached down and wiped out the wicked scourge of inverse-vol, I, the greatprophettm, said to you: "Sometimes to continue our ascent, we must first go down; to go further, we must first set camp and recover our strength. "

And down we went, 200 points and change since Feb 1st. The vengeful OT market Lord mocks and rages against false top and bottoms (jinxers) callers alike, as we've witnessed time and time again here. Yet he revealth his secrets only unto his servants the TrueProphetstm, for we are the faithful and the righteous. Verily I say unto you, my faithful minions: The climb shall be renewed, be ready to bask in the warmth of market highs once again by our next sermon*. Your pain and sufferings will be rewarded momentarily.

* the easy way out is of course to not give another sermon until we make new highs :)

Last November, I said "the source of all lights is also the fountain of darkness, and the beast stirs in the shadows" regarding the market and fundamentals; I elaborated further in Jan to help people others understand better: "Market sours not because of weakness, but from excessive strength". I hope these insightful and wise words are now part of your daily prayers. To a large extent, the recent "correction" spawned from upside surprises, it was both healthy and normal.

However, the shadow of war is upon us once more. By Divine and Royal decree, the Eternal Godemperor has made several questionable wise and just decisions, which brought the final Top much closer.

I want to end today's sermon with a quote from a faithful who had clearly been listening:

The One True Top is an ascension above all others.

So it has been written.  So it shall be done.

Amen

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2430 on: March 01, 2018, 01:53:12 PM »



Has anyone noticed this thread has gone preachy? ... or is it just me! 

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2431 on: March 01, 2018, 02:04:53 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

swashbucklinstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2432 on: March 01, 2018, 04:46:25 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

Shun the non-believer! Shun!

MrMoneyMullet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2433 on: March 01, 2018, 08:56:19 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

Shun the non-believer! Shun!

SHUUUUnnnnnnn. N.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2434 on: March 01, 2018, 10:59:00 PM »
Happy 50th page Top Is In

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2435 on: March 02, 2018, 06:40:28 AM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

A scarlet U for the Unbeliever! Let all who see their posts know that they are apostate!


KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2436 on: March 02, 2018, 07:40:51 AM »
Well, it seems to me Top was in for awhile. I don't see things bouncing back to Jan numbers for awhile.

I just raised my stake bigtime in VTI in Jan too. Now I feel like an idiot.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2437 on: March 02, 2018, 08:18:54 AM »
It will never recover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2438 on: March 02, 2018, 08:38:46 AM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

I'm confused.  You think the jinx is in because today the market gave back half of yesterday's gains?  We're still up compared to two days ago, and ten days ago, and three weeks ago.  I'm not seeing the problem here.

In fact, I'm not even sure the February "correction"should really count at all.  Yes, it technically dropped 10% from the peak, but that peak came after a 10% run up the previous month, the recovery was sharply V shaped, and now we're right back on the steady upward trend of the last two years, which have been incredible.  Right now, February just looks like random noise in the growth chart.

it looks like noise if you do not know classic support and resistance. it went down to the 200 mda and bounced up to the 50 and made 3 attempts to breakthrough that ressitance and has now failed, so we are going back down to test the lows again.

now, given the talk of raising rates over the past few weeks, you wanted to be cautious but now with both the fed and boj talking about reducing qe wijich is scheduled in april to start and trump's tariff talk and raising rates; you can expect more downside. all of those will have to be reversed for new highs now.

not calling for a recession but for stocks, having everything in stocks or an index now is a bad idea.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 08:40:42 AM by Cobaka »

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2439 on: March 02, 2018, 08:40:54 AM »
still accumulating, so hope you're right Cobaka.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2440 on: March 02, 2018, 08:45:55 AM »
Personally I don't mind a dip in March, but it would be hilarious to see a new top exactly on this threads one year anniversary in April

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2441 on: March 02, 2018, 08:47:41 AM »
Lol @ actual analysis being performed anywhere in this thread

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2442 on: March 02, 2018, 08:50:44 AM »
Personally I don't mind a dip in March, but it would be hilarious to see a new top exactly on this threads one year anniversary in April

I hope things happen exactly as you describe.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2443 on: March 02, 2018, 08:59:14 AM »
Personally I don't mind a dip in March, but it would be hilarious to see a new top exactly on this threads one year anniversary in April

This thread exists outside of time. It has no beginning and no end. Oh, and the top is always in.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2444 on: March 02, 2018, 09:28:47 AM »
it looks like noise if you do not know classic support and resistance. it went down to the 200 mda and bounced up to the 50 and made 3 attempts to breakthrough that ressitance and has now failed, so we are going back down to test the lows again.

now, given the talk of raising rates over the past few weeks, you wanted to be cautious but now with both the fed and boj talking about reducing qe wijich is scheduled in april to start and trump's tariff talk and raising rates; you can expect more downside. all of those will have to be reversed for new highs now.

not calling for a recession but for stocks, having everything in stocks or an index now is a bad idea.

Pffttt!  Get outta here with your weak @SS QE concerns.  REALLY fearful people know it's NEVER the right time to own stocks.  See, here's proof:




I mean, LOOK at all the MAJOR crap that went down throughout history.  Holding stocks was clearly the wrong move!!! [/sarcasm]

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2445 on: March 02, 2018, 09:33:41 AM »

I mean, LOOK at all the MAJOR crap that went down throughout history.  Holding stocks was clearly the wrong move!!! [/sarcasm]

Haha I see this thread as an Onion article where people comment on it as if it isn't satire /should be viewed as satire

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2446 on: March 02, 2018, 09:44:23 AM »
Personally I don't mind a dip in March, but it would be hilarious to see a new top exactly on this threads one year anniversary in April

This thread exists outside of time. It has no beginning and no end. Oh, and the top is always in.


fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2447 on: March 02, 2018, 09:58:10 AM »
it looks like noise if you do not know classic support and resistance. it went down to the 200 mda and bounced up to the 50 and made 3 attempts to breakthrough that ressitance and has now failed, so we are going back down to test the lows again.

now, given the talk of raising rates over the past few weeks, you wanted to be cautious but now with both the fed and boj talking about reducing qe wijich is scheduled in april to start and trump's tariff talk and raising rates; you can expect more downside. all of those will have to be reversed for new highs now.

not calling for a recession but for stocks, having everything in stocks or an index now is a bad idea.

I can't wait for your post about how you were able to take advantage of this super obvious information and make your billions.

Is there a way to subscribe to a certain user so I don't miss that write up?

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2448 on: March 02, 2018, 10:19:57 AM »
Personally I don't mind a dip in March, but it would be hilarious to see a new top exactly on this threads one year anniversary in April

This thread exists outside of time. It has no beginning and no end. Oh, and the top is always in.




Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2449 on: March 02, 2018, 11:00:23 AM »
A circle is a simple closed shape. It is the set of all points in a plane that are at a given distance from a given point, the centre; equivalently it is the curve traced out by a point that moves so that its distance from a given point is constant. The distance between any of the points and the centre is called the radius.