Top is in

[theolympians]

Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1

LOL!

[sol]

Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1

LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

[aspiringnomad]

Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1

LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

Oddly enough, I think that was the point of the video infographic (don't know what we're calling this, uh, style of journalism). It's not really clear, but CNBC seems to be pointing out that his Dow prediction is actually bearish, without providing the CAGR context that you provided, and yet Buffet proclaims he is very bullish about the country long-term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[JAYSLOL]

Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1

LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

Nah, he's an optimist.  He just uses conservative numbers when making a bold prediction.  Also, I think he mentioned in an article I read that 1M was the minimum, and that he expects it to be higher.  Also, he expects not to be around to find out if he's right or not

[boarder42]

Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1

LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

these were my exact thoughts.  what an incredibly low projection!

[moof]

Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today

+1

Presidents should not be judged by what happens to the economy at the beginning of their term, but rather the state of the economy at the end.

+1.  As much as you can hate or love him, Trump has had very little effect on the economy so far.

Obama got a lot of flack for high deficits, but he got handed an economy in free fall.  There was no kink in the "curve" on the day he came into office, nor was there a kink in the curve for Trump.  Presidents should probably get judged from about 6-12 months after coming into office until 4 or 8 years later to be properly fair.  Even then there needs to be context around whether they inherited a booming economy, which makes a recession more likely, or inherited a depressed economy where a boom is likely around the corner.  Obama's growth numbers ended up looking better in part because of the disaster he started with, just as W's numbers sucked in part because he inherited the tail end of the 90's boom as it fizzled (then effed it up further).

[Paul der Krake]

Presidents indeed have very little immediate impact. Their largest contribution is nominating the people who actually have the tools to shape the economy, who do what they can with the situation at hand. They don't get any recognition from the general public but the Bernanke-Geithner-Paulson trio went above and beyond what can be expected of their respective roles given the circumstances.

[fattest_foot]

I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

[dougules]

I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Completely true.  I think it's because there is not one single person to blame.  Also people seem forget about all the other elected officials aside from the president.  Even with a senatorial election going on here today nobody is talking about it. 

That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.

And a lot of times when politics affect the economy it's years down the road.  Reagan, Clinton, W, and the congress members from those eras may have more to do with our current economy that Obama or Trump. 

[DavidAnnArbor]

That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.

I don't agree with that because if the government didn't step in during the financial crisis of 2009 to help the financial markets, various industries, and provide stimulus, I'm not sure we would have recovered as far as we have.  I give Obama and the Democrats the credit for helping stabilize the economy. George W Bush to his credit did also help to bail out the banks to aid in the recovery, although I fault the Bush administration for the permissiveness of banking regulation that led to the crisis in the first place.

[kendallf]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

On April 11, 2017 the S&P 500 was at 2353.  Today it closed at 2501.  That's only 6% gain since Thorstach called the top.  Close enough?   :-)

[JAYSLOL]

I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Congress only has a 16% approval rating at the moment, so i'd say most of us aren't forgetting how much they suck

[RWD]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

On April 11, 2017 the S&P 500 was at 2353.  Today it closed at 2501.  That's only 6% gain since Thorstach called the top.  Close enough?   :-)

Plus dividends. So ~7%.

[dividendman]

I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Congress only has a 16% approval rating at the moment, so i'd say most of us aren't forgetting how much they suck

16% approval rating but a re-election rate of ~90%. Why? Because only other peoples' congresspeople suck.

[dividendman]

Some other fun facts:

The turnover of members of the United States Congress has averaged ~5% per election in the last 100 years.

The turnover of the Chinese Central Committee and Politburo has consistently averaged over 50% per 5 year term.

[Radagast]

Bouncy Cat thinks this thread has gotten boring.

[Exflyboy]

Clearly we need another top quick..:)

[wingfold2001]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

[solon]

wingfold2001 is either a troll or a godsend!

[wienerdog]

That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.

I don't agree with that because if the government didn't step in during the financial crisis of 2009 to help the financial markets, various industries, and provide stimulus, I'm not sure we would have recovered as far as we have.  I give Obama and the Democrats the credit for helping stabilize the economy. George W Bush to his credit did also help to bail out the banks to aid in the recovery, although I fault the Bush administration for the permissiveness of banking regulation that led to the crisis in the first place.

The feds just admitted that the QE that they did from 2008 - 2014 didn't work.  All it did was boost the stock market.  Well duhhhh because they were buying.

[DavidAnnArbor]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

If you're worried then you can do dollar cost averaging into your portfolio slowly over time.

[GuitarStv]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

Invest in penny candies.  Not only will you avoid the inevitable crash, but you'll have a house sized quantity of non-perishable food stored up for the coming zombie apocalypse.

[sol]

Today's market headlines suggest that four consecutive down days on the Dow must herald the coming financial apocalypse.

I expect thorstach to resurface any moment now.

[Optimiser]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

Invest in penny candies.  Not only will you avoid the inevitable crash, but you'll have a house sized quantity of non-perishable food stored up for the coming zombie apocalypse.

This strategy provides a great inflation hedge as well.

[moof]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

If investing extra money will exceed your risk tolerance, you have the WRONG asset allocation.  Revisit what your appropriate asset allocation is, and adjust your WHOLE portfolio to match.

My final asset allocation is aimed at being less aggressive than what I have today, as I get closer to my number I am slowly adjusting to that new target.   Put another way, money that I am pretty sure I will not need in the next 5-10 years is all in stocks.  Money I will need within that 5-10 years is in bond funds, and money I need next year is in cash.  My target asset allocation falls right out (85/15/1 today, 70/25/5 by time I hit my number).

[wienerdog]

Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

[BTDretire]

Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

 That's it? I can do that standing on my tip toes. Or is that toe tips?

[frugalnacho]

toe tops.

[Tyson]

Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

4 to 8 percent?  Haha, thats nothing.  People seriously freak out over something like that? 

[markbike528CBX]

Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

4 to 8 percent?  Haha, thats nothing.  People seriously freak out over something like that?

8 percent is 5 times my current (small, remaining) mortgage.  Dang, why did I just think of it like that :-(

[DavidAnnArbor]

Well the market did well today, especially the small caps - going up 2% in one day, with mid caps going up almost 1%

[Exflyboy]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

[wingfold2001]

What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

If investing extra money will exceed your risk tolerance, you have the WRONG asset allocation.  Revisit what your appropriate asset allocation is, and adjust your WHOLE portfolio to match.

My final asset allocation is aimed at being less aggressive than what I have today, as I get closer to my number I am slowly adjusting to that new target.   Put another way, money that I am pretty sure I will not need in the next 5-10 years is all in stocks.  Money I will need within that 5-10 years is in bond funds, and money I need next year is in cash.  My target asset allocation falls right out (85/15/1 today, 70/25/5 by time I hit my number).

Got, thanks for the hard numbers. That's very similar to what my adviser said. It's a funny feeling to act rationally per sound advice when my instinct is to do something else. My current allocation is 85/15... in goes the cash! Ass clench mode activated.

[Eric]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

[Exflyboy]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

You're right.. of course it was today..:)

[fattest_foot]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.

[dividendman]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.

Oh man... what are we going to do if the top is never in??? Like... what if the long term trend of the market is up..... woah...

[frugalnacho]

Once you top, you can't stop. 

[Tyson]

Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.

Oh man... what are we going to do if the top is never in??? Like... what if the long term trend of the market is up..... woah...

Mind...blown.

[Exflyboy]

My prediction.. When the Trump tax reform bill is shown to be a bunch of hot air then we will see a significant pullback and maybe the start of the next bear market.

Early next year the recession will start..:)

[frugledoc]

Don't top believin'
Hold on to the feelin'

[JAYSLOL]

Don't top believin'
Hold on to the feelin'

Wall Street People
Don't stop believin'

[frugalnacho]

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Payin' anything to roll the dice
Just one more time
Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh, the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on

-Journey, from the album Escape

[Eric]

My prediction.. When the Trump tax reform bill is shown to be a bunch of hot air then we will see a significant pullback and maybe the start of the next bear market.

Early next year the recession will start..:)

Yeah, I don't like wandering into predictions, but that's exactly my call too. 

He may well be betting on tax cuts to postpone or forestall a recession - I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

That's my current theory, anyway. 

Then again, we could both be wrong and there's simply a longstanding "Trump bump."  Who knows.

I think the reason is much more mundane.  They couldn't pass healthcare reform.  Trump's being embroiled in scandal after scandal.  He needs a win.  Rebublicans love tax cuts.  Therefore, it's important to pass this now.

[solon]

And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

[frugledoc]

And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

[ixtap]

And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.

[Exflyboy]

And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.

For us we are at 2.5 * our number.. not that we ever really had a number, it just sort of happened.. So we can afford a comparitively spendypants lifestyle. If the big crash comes we can easily ride it out until we can live on steak/lobster and travel business class all over the World again*


* Not that we ever have cus I'm far too cheap.. But heck if we end up at 5* our number I doubt we'll ever see an economy class airline seat ever again..:)

[Exflyboy]

And.. the TOP IS IN..again..:)

[secondcor521]

I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

Trump and the Republicans have been talking about tax cuts as one of their top several priorities since at least election night, and I'm pretty sure Trump talked about it frequently on the campaign trail as well.  It has bubbled to the top since they were unable to pass any health care changes.

"Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:  1.  Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate."  (http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days, dated 2016-11-09)

Trump cabinet members are currently predicting 3%+ GDP growth as far as the eye can see.  The Federal Reserve - none of whom are Trump appointees as far as I know - is also predicting modest growth for the indefinite future:  "The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further."  (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170614a.htm)

That all being said, it would not surprise me if we have a stock market correction soon.  In other words, the top is in.