Top is in

[dreadmoose]

If it helps the argument in any way... (which is how the internet works right? people are always convinced at the end of thread?)

I feel a little antsy about investing my hard-earned (not really) cash, so when people come in with predictions on how silly everyone is for sitting still it takes the slightest willpower to not dive down a research rabbit hole to see if it can be verified. Once everyone stops asking questions that can't be answered and the meme's start pouring in it makes it much easier to write-off what seemed to be a serious prediction (a great reason to read deprecated threads on these predictions to see them happen constantly in all directions and then proven wrong).

That said I vowed to never change my investment strategy and won't crack to wild predictions in any direction, but somebody might need to see ridicule of these moon-shots in order to write them off.

[Radagast]

After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

What? Every single prediction he made about the future has been wrong already, except calling the top on May 10th which will be wrong too if the S&P500 ever again goes .4% above where it is right now. If he calls every new high the top he will be right while at the same time being profoundly wrong. He has been 100% accurate in predicting things that already happened though, so I see how you might be confused. His powers of hindsight are astounding.

[Eric]

After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

Even though sol and Radagast seemed to miss it, I thought this was well done and very funny.  Can't wait for the not wrong Triple Top!

[Stache-O-Lantern]

After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

How can you possibly justify "not wrong"?

He called the top at March 1, a top that has now been broken, then that top was broken, then that second top was broken and a third top was set.  Three separate times.  We're talking about numbers here, one of them is definitely bigger than the other.

Looks pretty wrong to me.

I'm willing to spot thorstache a few points on the upside in the short term!  Call it a little sportsmanship if you will.  Based on the called top on March 1, and daily closing numbers on the S&P, the top was only broken by a few points so far.  Maybe it blows up on Monday.  But this weekend, Triple top is IN!

[Clean Shaven]

But this weekend, Triple top is IN!

OK, one more meme for the weekend.

[markbike528CBX]

I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(

[aspiringnomad]

I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(

Funny thing is, every single time that I see one of these threads early in their existence, and it's often, I think to myself, "this will die a quick death" given how inane (and ultimately wrong) each prediction is. And yet, these threads often take off and go on and on and on. So not only do I lack faith in my ability to call "the top" of the market, but I also have absolutely no faith that I can call the top of the market timing threads either.

[JAYSLOL]

I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(

Funny thing is, every single time that I see one of these threads early in their existence, and it's often, I think to myself, "this will die a quick death" given how inane (and ultimately wrong) each prediction is. And yet, these threads often take off and go on and on and on. So not only do I lack faith in my ability to call "the top" of the market, but I also have absolutely no faith that I can call the top of the market timing threads either.

That's because we're experiencing an inverse triple dead thread bounce 

[fattest_foot]

S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

[Clean Shaven]

More bounce to the ounce.

[Scortius]

S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.

[sirdoug007]

S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.

So this is more of a live cat leap???

[sirdoug007]

So many tops I will need to move to my left hand to keep counting!

[Mr. Boh]

Not a top. Not a double top. Onward and upward:)

[dividendman]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but: Top is in.

[Clean Shaven]

So many tops I will need to move to my left hand to keep counting!

At least it wasn't an afterschool special about quants!

[JoeBlow]

S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.

I am not a market timer but the dead cat bounce happens almost every time there is a sudden market crash.  It is almost like clockwork.  I just continue to buy, buy, buy all the way to the bottom.

[MasterStache]

Top is in, again! Nowhere to go but triangle.

[smedleyb]

Gambling account currently 200% short as of yesterday (via IWM puts).  Don't know about tops, yet high levels of complacency + narrowing leadership = time to throw some money logs on this market fire.  Fully expect to lose (stops set above 140) but I'll be damned if I don't take a stand.

To properly understand this trade, picture a entire army advancing (market bull), and I, armed with a small knife, turn to my fellow bears uttering "I got this" as I charge out into the field of battle. 

Wish me luck! lol. 

[DavidAnnArbor]

To properly understand this trade, picture a entire army advancing (market bull), and I, armed with a small knife, turn to my fellow bears uttering "I got this" as I charge out into the field of battle. 

Wish me luck! lol.

US Factory output grew in April at the fastest pace in 3 years. Manufacturing capacity utilization as well as overall industrial capacity utilization both climbed.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/05/16/business/16reuters-usa-economy-output.html?src=busln

Also hasn't 1st Quarter seen a rebound in corporate profits ?

[smedleyb]

US Factory output grew in April at the fastest pace in 3 years. Manufacturing capacity utilization as well as overall industrial capacity utilization both climbed.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/05/16/business/16reuters-usa-economy-output.html?src=busln

Also hasn't 1st Quarter seen a rebound in corporate profits ?

Sell at the sound of the trumpets?

[thorstach]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

[Clean Shaven]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I disagree.

In deferred markets, never prepay defaulted short positions.

Courtesy of:

https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

[OurTown]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I used to read SPY vs. SPY when I was a freshman in college, does that count?

[dividendman]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I <3 you dude. I literally laughed out loud at my desk and people walking by wondering what I'm laughing at.

Keep em coming!

[Clean Shaven]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I used to read SPY vs. SPY when I was a freshman in college, does that count?

Was there a red Spy too? I just remember the black and white ones.

[Retire-Canada]

Was there a red Spy too? I just remember the black and white ones.

[bacchi]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

We breached 21000. If it can close above, it's green dow, baby!

[UnleashHell]

In? Out?
Shake it all about!!!

[dividendman]

Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

We breached 21000. If it can close above, it's green dow, baby!

Way to jinx it!

[Clean Shaven]

In? Out?
Shake it all about!!!

That's what it's all about!

[thorstach]

More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.

[MrDelane]

...VIX spiking...

Spiking?
I suppose it's all in how you look at it.

VIX hit a record low yesterday, so it shouldn't be strange at all to see it go up.
And for further context, it's also down about 33% from when you started this thread.

But yeah... 'spiking' can also work as a headline, I guess.




ETA:
Is it just me or do all of Thorstach's posts read like old-timey telegrams sent from the front lines?

[Retire-Canada]

More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.

Yes. VIX looks very scary down there at 10.

[Clean Shaven]

More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.

Is that like Chad's Gap?

[thorstach]

The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

[MrDelane]

The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

Posts continue, thread growing, jokes spiking after hours.

[Radagast]

Actual Market History

The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

Glad to see you are still around despite the relentless jokes.

[thorstach]

VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

[MrDelane]

VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

Alternatively....

VIX down 25% in the past month, inability to draw an actionable conclusion is in.

[Retire-Canada]

VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

Yes! Only a fool wouldn't be worried about VIX right now. I mean look at it. Low is bad right??? ;)

[Clean Shaven]

AAAAGH THE SKY IS FALLING EVERYBODY RUN NOWHERE TO HIDE WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE AAAAGH

[MrDelane]

Thorstach, all joking aside, you continue to point out what you deem as significant signposts of a coming downtrend - but you don't seem to have any actionable advice to follow it.

In all sincerity, I'm curious, what do you suggest people do with this information?

More importantly - What have you done with your investments in reaction to 'the top being in'?

[Clean Shaven]

Thorstach, all joking aside, you continue to point out what you deem as significant signposts of a coming downtrend - but you don't seem to have any actionable advice to follow it.

In all sincerity, I'm curious, what do you suggest people do with this information?

More importantly - What have you done with your investments in reaction to 'the top being in'?

He's been asked these sorts of questions before in this thread, and never answers.

[sirdoug007]

You might want to read this article Thorsatch.  Sometimes the clouds just have rain, not biblical floods.

Stocks don’t have to crash every time they fall. In fact, the majority of the time when you’re invested in the stock market you’re going to be experiencing a drawdown for the simple fact that new all-time highs aren’t reached every single day and stocks are only up around 50% of all trading days.

Stocks will fall. The reason doesn’t really even matter. When you invest in stocks you should go into that investment with the expectation that they will go down with regularity even when they end up giving you gains over the long-term.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/05/the-expectation-of-losses/

[dividendman]

Looks like the Top is in for Trump.

[FLBiker]

This thread is great!  I admit to being fairly ignorant of market timing jargon, but I read a bunch of the sincere posts as jokes.

[fattest_foot]

I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.

[Clean Shaven]

I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.

It's 1.5% currently.

[thorstach]

VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

Yes! Only a fool wouldn't be worried about VIX right now. I mean look at it. Low is bad right??? ;)

VIX up 36.62%