Author Topic: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market  (Read 3376 times)

mtnman125

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 40
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #50 on: April 07, 2020, 12:07:56 PM »
Same- super boring, but we get some variety since we have ~6 deposits monthly. 

$1500 on 1st of the month (brokerage)
$1000 on 15th of the month (Roth IRA's)
Then we have both our 401k deposits every other week, calculated to max on last check of the year.

I will admit it was "fun" to see our deposit on the 1st then my wife's 401k deposit on Friday and then see some gains on Monday.

George the Pet Goose

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Age: 51
  • Location: California
  • Married living in the Mountains of California
Re: Another Attempt to post attachments all on the same page- Gains
« Reply #51 on: April 07, 2020, 12:21:26 PM »
My goal is to turn the original amt starting amt of  $8387 to 25k by the end of this year.

Why are you posting this is a thread titled "I solemnly swear NOT to try and time the market."?
Isn't that clear? Didn't you bother to read my posts or examine the attachments for validity?

They do not jive with the OP's "solemn oath to never"
Thread needed a little balance eh?
anyone can do the math seeing the dates to figure my gains

Luckily I never took this oath via the title of the thread. That's part of the point
Nothing is that cut & dry as we've learned lately with history NOT being predictable.
None of us has encountered any sort of upheaval the world is enduring now.
Every 100 yrs
Counting all your eggs in one basket betting that history will completely repeat itself by producing gains in the end... might not be wise.
Mindless auto-piloting is great yet sometimes the hurdles in the road were not programmed for the auto-pilot feature
A few deviations along the way by the pilot might be necessary
That's all.
Carry on as you were

« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 12:25:09 PM by George the Pet Goose »

markbike528CBX

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1421
  • Location: the Everbrown part of the Evergreen State (WA)
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #52 on: April 07, 2020, 12:44:38 PM »
Exciting to see there are still so many of us DCA-ers! :) ........

FINALLY, we get to see something exciting about DCA and buy and hold :-)

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4260
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #53 on: April 07, 2020, 01:21:38 PM »
Yeah, let us know how your crystal ball (and retirement) are going in another decade, dude.

We get hundreds of people that win once and post about it. 95% never return... presumably because they didn't keep winning. A few win again and come back, then disappear after a win or two... presumably when they start losing.

So the thing to remember is that you're a sort of stereotype here - someone who has (inasmuch as we can tell from the information given) wasted 30 years of their working life not contributing enough/anything to end up with plenty of money, but figures they can make it up by being magically smarter than everyone else. It's not clear to me why a track record of being bad with money convinces people they can market time - maybe it's a Dunning-Kruger thing.

Anyway, if you really want to do it right, post your trades *before you make them* and document everything. If you win over any sustained period of time, I'll freely acknowledge that you're amazing.

-W


UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7780
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #54 on: April 07, 2020, 02:32:30 PM »
I sold all my portfolio and bought gold and cruise lines last week!!!


oh wait. nope - thats another thread.


I mostly index fund. I have some shares in individual holdings and took this opportunity to sell some and consolidate into a stock that I thought was a screaming deal. It also happens to be the one i work for and I have read all the reports and understand what they are doing. they'll come out of this just fine and so will the stock. One of those cases where everything was going down and bringing all the prices with it.

90% of my investments are in index funds. the only move I made was to increase my contribution so that my bonus and paycheck contribution will max out this year. I did that move in Feb.

The only other thing I'll be doing is sitting back and watching the market and not making any further changes.


no flag waving for being contrarian here. just buy and hold.

George the Pet Goose

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Age: 51
  • Location: California
  • Married living in the Mountains of California
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #55 on: April 07, 2020, 09:14:10 PM »
Yeah, let us know how your crystal ball (and retirement) are going in another decade, dude.

We get hundreds of people that win once and post about it. 95% never return... presumably because they didn't keep winning. A few win again and come back, then disappear after a win or two... presumably when they start losing.

So the thing to remember is that you're a sort of stereotype here - someone who has (inasmuch as we can tell from the information given) wasted 30 years of their working life not contributing enough/anything to end up with plenty of money, but figures they can make it up by being magically smarter than everyone else. It's not clear to me why a track record of being bad with money convinces people they can market time - maybe it's a Dunning-Kruger thing.

Anyway, if you really want to do it right, post your trades *before you make them* and document everything. If you win over any sustained period of time, I'll freely acknowledge that you're amazing.

-W

That wasn't meant to make you or anyone feel insecure.
Intent was clearly stated to be directed at the title of this thread so there is no confusion.
I've been trading for 4-6wks now in Fidelity
Put downs concerning things you know nothing about don't belong here in an investment forum
Back to the topic. I obliged you below to provide the information regarding trades before they were made.
Clearly i cannot do this as posts on a forum since i just joined. Screenshot below has my acct # blotted out
Software allows just one or maybe more now... attachments

You can see my boo boo in the beginning where my first transaction was reversed ASAP.
Lost $ and the COVID was coming by then, already ravishing other Countries.

1st real transaction on the March 24 or 26th, 2020  (ive forgotten now, see below) t
Bought SPY on March 24-26th I believe ( see below) & traded 5 or so times since

Beginning IRA balance is $8703.35 + Beginning ROTH balance of $508.50= $9211.85
Current Ending balance (as posted already in prior screenshot is $10,340.44
Gains as of today - $1128.59

A sworn oath taken to stay the course would've been a very bad decision for me.
So of course, I would never desire anyone religiously adhere to it.
Unprescedented times so looking to history you won't find times like this in order
to assume history will repeat itself. It cannot, this is all new and unique.


I'd never promote it yet there are others who are day traders making a living.
Not many, jmho.
All of 2019 =No brains and my plane never required needing a real pilot. Remaining on auto-pilot

To believe you have that many people coming in posting proof of their screenshots is a bit of a stretch eh? lets be honest ok
In another post, Ill post my 2nd screenshot of the transactions. please be patient. Photobucket is new for me.

TIMELINE
Feb 20 2020- I rolled over my IRA & Roth IRA to CORE position
Had My First trade & only boo boo!!!
Reversed positions ASAP
lost $
Remained in CORE position for some wks
Back into SPY towards the end of March 2020

Beginning balances-
IRA- $8703.35
Roth IRA- $508.50
-------------------
$9211.85  on Feb 20th

Today's end Balance - $10,340.44 (see my prior post for screenshot)
Gain of: $1128.59

Last SPY trade was today at 4pm (1pm in New York) when I sold it (2% gain)
SPY opened at over 3% (or at least when i awoke this morning it was)
Slowly decreasing w smaller spikes up
Locked in a gain at 2.11%
SPY closed in the red.

Glad I didn't stay the course however I could see the pattern of the dipping
I didn't gain over $300 locking in at 3%
Yet happy with 2%

Honestly, a this point so wet behind the ears, this is very easy imho
Expect another mistake(s) of course... however, no worries.
Thus I cannot support the title of this thread
though do agree, overall, staying the course is the historical way to guarantee success.
The more you trade, imho, the riskier it gets.
Yet sometimes things are SO BAD, it can be risky NOT to change course

« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 09:41:54 PM by George the Pet Goose »

George the Pet Goose

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Age: 51
  • Location: California
  • Married living in the Mountains of California
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #56 on: April 07, 2020, 09:40:42 PM »
I sold all my portfolio and bought gold and cruise lines last week!!!


oh wait. nope - thats another thread.


I mostly index fund. I have some shares in individual holdings and took this opportunity to sell some and consolidate into a stock that I thought was a screaming deal. It also happens to be the one i work for and I have read all the reports and understand what they are doing. they'll come out of this just fine and so will the stock. One of those cases where everything was going down and bringing all the prices with it.

90% of my investments are in index funds. the only move I made was to increase my contribution so that my bonus and paycheck contribution will max out this year. I did that move in Feb.

The only other thing I'll be doing is sitting back and watching the market and not making any further changes.


no flag waving for being contrarian here. just buy and hold.
Good for you to have a job at these current times w/a 401k. & increasing the contribution. I was laid off yet currently on unemployment benefits which is a nice bonus. It offers time to learn

Jack0Life

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 319
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #57 on: April 07, 2020, 09:54:15 PM »
Good Lord man, leave this thread alone.
I've been timing the market like crazy too but there many many many other threads to post about your market timing.
Its the same thing when the usual passive investor jump in a "market timing" thread and start spewing how market timing never wins, blah blah blah.(most won't but let people try)
Leave this thread alone, Go post your endeavor in another thread.

George the Pet Goose

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
  • Age: 51
  • Location: California
  • Married living in the Mountains of California
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #58 on: April 07, 2020, 10:14:22 PM »
Good Lord man, leave this thread alone.
I've been timing the market like crazy too but there many many many other threads to post about your market timing.
Its the same thing when the usual passive investor jump in a "market timing" thread and start spewing how market timing never wins, blah blah blah.(most won't but let people try)
Leave this thread alone, Go post your endeavor in another thread.

Replying to inquiries from another poster. I don't care if you time the market however I wish you good luck
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 10:15:53 PM by George the Pet Goose »

UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7780
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #59 on: April 08, 2020, 05:26:30 AM »
Good for you to have a job at these current times w/a 401k. & increasing the contribution. I was laid off yet currently on unemployment benefits which is a nice bonus. It offers time to learn

you are 50. you had 30 years to invest and yet didn't. now , while you are on unemployment, you suddenly become an investment expert and will get 300% returns in a year and feel all righteous about hitting up a thread where people have had a successful strategy and you are telling them how they are wrong and you are right?

why aren't the hedge funds queuing up to hire you as you are clearly the worlds best?
I must be missing something!!

please tell me what your next move is so I can sell my hundreds of thousands of dollars of investments and follow your lead!!!


(in case its not clear there is a lot of sarcasm written above.) I suggest you actually read about mmm and investing before you preach to those who have.

rockstache

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6508
  • Age: 2016
  • Location: Northeast
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #60 on: April 08, 2020, 05:40:03 AM »
Still here, still carrying on as normal.

Confession time - I am making a change. I'm cancelling my dependent care FSA (because I'm watching my own kid at home). I'll be adding that additional paycheck money to the market.

There's a tendency around here to use the term DCA interchangeably with investing money as it becomes available to me and it's confusing. For the record, I am doing the latter.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1248
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #61 on: April 08, 2020, 08:48:15 AM »
I'll take that oath.  Since mid February I have not sold anything, so that's good.  I have rebalanced once.  I have redirected money we would have spent going out to eat (!) into Roth IRA contributions.  We are doing a refi on the home mortgage to a 10 year fixed at (drumroll) 2.5%.  The gov't stimulus check is going straight to the emergency fund.  Otherwise, we are doing the same old boring DCA, buy and hold index funds.

RainyDay

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 68
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #62 on: April 08, 2020, 12:42:42 PM »
Personally, I have found this recent stock market craziness to be very educational.  I've read for years that market timing is BAD, and I've always been a buy/hold.  In the back of my mind, however, there's always been a sneaking suspicion that I'm missing out on possible gains.  After all, it makes sense to "buy low and sell high" and how hard can that BE???

So in early/mid March when a number of my friends and family were bailing out of the market in big ways, I did nothing, but wondered if I was being the idiot.  Watching my 'stash get smaller and smaller (while theirs, in secure cash holdings, stayed stable) sure felt like stupidity! 

I'm sure the craziness isn't done yet, but here's what has happened so far:

One friend sold all his equity holdings in the second week of March, when the Dow was bouncing around in 22,000-23,000 territory.  Soon after, the markets crapped out again and the Dow was around 18,000-19,000.  I felt alarmed and possibly stupid.  But now the Dow is back up in 22,000-23,000 territory, so when is he going to buy back in?  Sure, it could drop again, but will he buy?  I suspect not.  Maybe it will totally crater down to 15,000 or whatever...will he buy, or be afraid that it will continue to drop?  What if today is the low and it creeps higher from here on out?  Or bounces back and forth for another six months to a year (or more!) before climbing steadily again?  His only strategy was to "avoid loss" and he did not think about when to buy back in.

THAT is what has taught me that it's really unlikely you'll win by selling in a panic, even when everyone else does.  You just don't know what the LOW is.  (and he didn't sell at the top!)

I'm sure some of you are going "no shit, sherlock, that's what we've been SAYING ALL ALONG" but it's different to hear it vs actually watch it play out in real time. 

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 286
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #63 on: April 08, 2020, 01:25:46 PM »
can we start a support group, maybe online meetings? market timers anonymous?

just dont buy that first share and you'll not time the market sort of thing?


zinnie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 686
  • Location: Boston
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #64 on: April 08, 2020, 03:36:53 PM »
Iím in! Iíll admit I had a panic about a week ago, but I stood with my plan.

What this gave me a good lesson in, though, is having the right allocation and appropriate amount of cash. I still have a few individual stocks from forever ago and the past few weeks made me realize that having too much tied up in the success or failure of ONE company is not right for my risk tolerance.
And it made me realize I want to have a yearís expenses in cash before I FIRE so a random crash doesnít immediately throw off all my plans.

So I think this has been a good lesson so far 😊


 

BicycleB

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2511
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #65 on: April 08, 2020, 04:19:02 PM »

I'm sure some of you are going "no shit, sherlock, that's what we've been SAYING ALL ALONG" but it's different to hear it vs actually watch it play out in real time.

That's one of the best things I've read in a long time. Very glad you got to see it for yourself!!

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1384
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #66 on: April 08, 2020, 06:43:16 PM »

I'm sure some of you are going "no shit, sherlock, that's what we've been SAYING ALL ALONG" but it's different to hear it vs actually watch it play out in real time.

That's one of the best things I've read in a long time. Very glad you got to see it for yourself!!

I also got to watch a buddy of mine sell everything as the market was sliding in late-2018.  I told him he was being an idiot, and he should just keep buying every 2 weeks.  Like me, heís in his 30s and a few decades from retirement, so thereís no shortage of time for it to recover.  He didnít listen and went all cash and briefly avoided ďlossesĒ in December when the market dropped almost enough to end the bull run, but of course didnít put it back in at the bottom and still hasnít got back in over a year later because it rocketed back to new highs so quickly.  Iím totally ok with not being a market timing genius gambler, Iíd rather be the house. 

I havenít touched a single share since the virus market drop, and Iíve kept buying every week (Iím fortunate to still be employed, however DW is out of work, so contributions are down a bit)

vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1053
  • Location: UK
Re: I solemnly swear to NOT try to time the market
« Reply #67 on: April 09, 2020, 02:48:06 AM »
Personally, I have found this recent stock market craziness to be very educational.  I've read for years that market timing is BAD, and I've always been a buy/hold.  In the back of my mind, however, there's always been a sneaking suspicion that I'm missing out on possible gains.  After all, it makes sense to "buy low and sell high" and how hard can that BE???

So in early/mid March when a number of my friends and family were bailing out of the market in big ways, I did nothing, but wondered if I was being the idiot.  Watching my 'stash get smaller and smaller (while theirs, in secure cash holdings, stayed stable) sure felt like stupidity! 

I'm sure the craziness isn't done yet, but here's what has happened so far:

One friend sold all his equity holdings in the second week of March, when the Dow was bouncing around in 22,000-23,000 territory.  Soon after, the markets crapped out again and the Dow was around 18,000-19,000.  I felt alarmed and possibly stupid.  But now the Dow is back up in 22,000-23,000 territory, so when is he going to buy back in?  Sure, it could drop again, but will he buy?  I suspect not.  Maybe it will totally crater down to 15,000 or whatever...will he buy, or be afraid that it will continue to drop?  What if today is the low and it creeps higher from here on out?  Or bounces back and forth for another six months to a year (or more!) before climbing steadily again?  His only strategy was to "avoid loss" and he did not think about when to buy back in.

THAT is what has taught me that it's really unlikely you'll win by selling in a panic, even when everyone else does.  You just don't know what the LOW is.  (and he didn't sell at the top!)

I'm sure some of you are going "no shit, sherlock, that's what we've been SAYING ALL ALONG" but it's different to hear it vs actually watch it play out in real time.

Excellent post.

All the charts in the world cannot tell you what it feels like when you have skin in the game and the market is tearing your carefully laid plans a new one with each plunge lower.

I like to go back to the Investors' Pyramid:



If you cannot master the bottom of the pyramid then none of the rest of the upper layers will matter. 

Unfortunately we see that, despite their fondness for glibly quoting Warren Buffett when the market pings new highs, most investors are still as stupid as ever when it comes to mastering those basics.

I love this thread BTW. A steady and sensible head will get you through any crisis.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 03:27:12 AM by vand »