Author Topic: This is when the market will stop dropping.  (Read 22436 times)

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #100 on: April 13, 2020, 05:34:44 PM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?


thd7t

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1348
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #101 on: April 14, 2020, 09:22:57 AM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them". 

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2705
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #102 on: April 14, 2020, 09:37:15 AM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.

thd7t

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1348
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #103 on: April 14, 2020, 11:49:53 AM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.
These will be pretty well documented as well and it will become clear where COVID-19 has had an impact increasing mortality.  I'm not so sure that suicide rates will go up.  I don't think it's unlikely either, but it seems like guesswork, this early on.

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2769
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #104 on: April 17, 2020, 10:36:36 AM »
You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.

I understand your point, but the main causes of death in the United State, by far, are heart attacks and cancer.   Motor vehicle deaths are about 40,000/year.  Maybe 15-20,000 murders/year.  We've had 30,000 COVID deaths in two months.  Even if car accidents and murders are way down, those numbers are being swamped out by the COVID cases. 

PDXTabs

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3636
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Portland, OR, USA
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #105 on: April 17, 2020, 11:50:23 AM »
We've had 30,000 COVID deaths in two months.

And that's with extensive social distancing and a third of the economy shutdown. Also, we are no where close to herd immunity.

redpoint5

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 3
  • Location: Portland, OR
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #106 on: April 17, 2020, 12:18:00 PM »
Scott Adams mentioned a better metric might be the change in life expectancy. If people were going to die anyhow, then Coronavirus wouldn't affect that much. On the other hand, if life expectancy decreases, it tends to indicate Coronavirus is greatly impacting health (life expectancy being a proxy for overall health). Of course, life expectancy figures are probably slow to be updated, so it might not be a good indicator for the market.

I wonder if we're seeing a dead cat bounce, or if the market had already priced in how difficult this is going to be long term. I expect 2nd and 3rd waves of shelter in place orders, and a fairly steady increase in deaths as more people become exposed. There's even talk of multiple strains that may cause 2nd waves of infection. Can we expect some seasonal factors to play into market pricing? Perhaps we'll see a rise as summer reduces the velocity of spread and people go back to work, and a drop in the fall as the velocity of spread increases and shelter in place orders are given?

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #107 on: April 17, 2020, 12:46:02 PM »
thd7t - Here's one source which I selected owing to the .gov extension and being a medical study.  There is a correlation between unemployment and death rates.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/
Unemployment and Early Cause-Specific Mortality
"Unemployment was associated with an increased risk of suicide and death from undetermined causes."

redpoint5 - Life expectancy is measured rather slowly, as shown recently by overall U.S. life expectancy declining 2-3 years during the opioid epidemic.

thd7t

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1348
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #108 on: April 17, 2020, 01:38:15 PM »
thd7t - Here's one source which I selected owing to the .gov extension and being a medical study.  There is a correlation between unemployment and death rates.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/
Unemployment and Early Cause-Specific Mortality
"Unemployment was associated with an increased risk of suicide and death from undetermined causes."

redpoint5 - Life expectancy is measured rather slowly, as shown recently by overall U.S. life expectancy declining 2-3 years during the opioid epidemic.
Thanks for a useful response!  I'm still hesitant to say that this is like other times with high unemployment, but this is valuable data.

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #109 on: April 24, 2020, 06:49:17 AM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

New data from New York shows it is much more widespread than all the stupid models showed that were just guessing.  Now they are at 6 deaths per 1000 infections or just over 0.5%.  94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions.  43% of the deaths were nursing home patients.  Cuomo did exactly what Italy did and kept the virus in the homes but I am not sure why you would expect common sense from Government.

Like I said turn the crap off.  In reality if you're below 60 and in good health the thing will pass right over you.  You might get an ass kicking for a day or two but odds are way on your side.  Don't let the news fool you.  If you are immune compromised (obese and the diseases that go along with it) or over 60 then you better take precautions.

The can will soon come to a stop and the real numbers will be known.  Yes I agree it might be a year and there definitely was an uptick but the media hasn't done it any good either.  They have already changed the first deaths to Feb.  What else will change?  Now the infections started 6 weeks ago.  I am still waiting on an Antibody test because I bet I had in January.

geekette

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2222
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #110 on: April 24, 2020, 05:02:53 PM »
I know three people who have had it.  It was not a day or two ass kicking - much worse.  And now Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying from strokes

But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

PDXTabs

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3636
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Portland, OR, USA
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #111 on: April 24, 2020, 05:16:52 PM »
☝️ I was just about to post that. 94% of people who are hospitalized in NY had some pre-existing condition that complicated things. But that's a lot of people, and I didn't choose to be asthmatic. Likewise type 1 diabetics never chose for their body to destroy their own pancreas. That doesn't even account for the 6% of totally healthy people that are still being admitted to hospital.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2705
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #112 on: April 24, 2020, 05:48:50 PM »
94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions. 

"According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition."

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

I don't know if there is a consistent definition of underlying/pre-existing conditions, but in any case we can't dismiss these deaths simply because the individuals had some other condition.

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3692
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #113 on: April 24, 2020, 10:57:55 PM »
94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions. 

"According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition."

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

I don't know if there is a consistent definition of underlying/pre-existing conditions, but in any case we can't dismiss these deaths simply because the individuals had some other condition.

And this is why the United States could lose a couple million people from COVID-19. We're almost all obese, eat too much sugar, and inhale the fumes from our millions of cars every day. All that makes for a vulnerable population.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #114 on: April 25, 2020, 01:33:35 AM »
The two key insights from the article, for me, were these section titles:
"One in Two Americans Has a Pre-Existing Condition"
"Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition"


@wienerdog - New York's most optimistic model of the outbreak proved correct, allowing them to handle peak patient load without denying people ventilators.  If you instead flood hospitals with patients, people "tire out", from fighting to breathe...  those people, without ventilators, will very likely die.  So take the odds a ventilator saves someone's life, and drop that to 0% to get a realistic death toll if people attempt herd immunity.


It's also very important to pay attention to how studies are conducted.  The studies with the highest estimates of antibodies used the worst methods.  The one in Santa Clara invited people on social media, which means people who couldn't get a test earlier are more likely to volunteer - which inflates the numbers.  Similarly, New York's data was sampled from people who weren't hiding at home, and are more likely to be exposed.  L.A. / CA Dept of Health did a more controlled study where they randomly picked people to test, and their estimate was closer to 4%.  Still much higher than the number of cases, but much lower than other studies estimated.
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Does anyone know of other carefully randomized studies?

Paper Chaser

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1028
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #115 on: April 26, 2020, 09:04:29 AM »
The two key insights from the article, for me, were these section titles:
"One in Two Americans Has a Pre-Existing Condition"
"Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition"


@wienerdog - New York's most optimistic model of the outbreak proved correct, allowing them to handle peak patient load without denying people ventilators.  If you instead flood hospitals with patients, people "tire out", from fighting to breathe...  those people, without ventilators, will very likely die.  So take the odds a ventilator saves someone's life, and drop that to 0% to get a realistic death toll if people attempt herd immunity.

Chances of a ventilator saving you seem really low. They discuss ventilators a bit in the same study that wienerdog is referencing. Here's the article with the 94% chronic condition findings:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html

Of the 5700 hospitalized people in the test sample, 1151 patients (About 20% of those hospitalized) needed a ventilator. Of those 1151, only 38 had recovered and been discharged. 282 had died and the remaining 831 were still on ventilators when the findings were released. But that's an 88% mortality rate for those cases where a ventilator was no longer needed due to recovery or death. Ventilators may not be the lifesavers that many people think. And if you're bad enough to need one, it's not looking good.

Basically, if you're on a ventilator, your odds of making it aren't good. They're not the savior that they've been made out to be.


MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #116 on: April 28, 2020, 10:53:25 AM »
Yes, I agree ventilators save fewer lives than expected - or at least, than I expected.

(at least 80%, according to the article) "80% of NYC's coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them"
"We know that mechanical ventilation is not benign"
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4


I would also say there's more to COVID-19 than ventilators, and expand on my disagreement with arguments for herd immunity.  Dividing total U.S. deaths by total U.S. confirmed cases, I get 5.6%.  If ventilators help some, maybe it's 7% without ventilators.  There's a lot of unknowns, but it seems clear the death toll would go much higher if herd immunity is attempted.

If we're looking for a market bottom, maybe careful reopening with testing can work while waiting for vaccine research to come through.  Vaccines have typically had too few cases to work with, and didn't target a global pandemic - this is different.  Maybe there's enough resources committed to finding a vaccine (plus related experience).

There's also the possibility that all the people defaulting on rent payments and mortgages needs to be sorted out, and maybe ends up in another cycle of problems.  The discovery of a vaccine may look like a recovery, but reopening the economy might prove harder than expected.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 19273
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #117 on: April 28, 2020, 11:54:53 AM »
If we're looking for a market bottom, maybe careful reopening with testing can work while waiting for vaccine research to come through.  Vaccines have typically had too few cases to work with, and didn't target a global pandemic - this is different.  Maybe there's enough resources committed to finding a vaccine (plus related experience).

There's also the possibility that all the people defaulting on rent payments and mortgages needs to be sorted out, and maybe ends up in another cycle of problems.  The discovery of a vaccine may look like a recovery, but reopening the economy might prove harder than expected.

It looks like the US is full steaming ahead to an opening regardless of consequences.  It makes me concerned that there will be a rough ride ahead as the inevitable transmission leads to a new explosion of cases in different areas of the country.

At this point, a vaccine looks more and more like a pipe dream.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #118 on: April 28, 2020, 02:29:33 PM »
Just to that point, Denmark is reopening right now - including schools.  Elementary school children running around, touching other's faces - let alone their own.  And yet despite schools opening in Denmark last Monday... there's no outbreak.  Week over week cases are still dropping.

The U.S. has far more cases per day, and the number of cases is much closer to the U.S. testing capacity than Denmark's.  So while Denmark looks like an optimistic story for reopening, they also have greater ability to do contact tracing.  The U.S. is not increasing testing exponentially anymore, and has slowly climbed to 200k tests/day.


I disagree with pessimism over a vaccine - and I originally said in past outbreaks, a vaccine was never found during the outbreak.  I originally agreed with estimates of 1-2 years for the possibility of finding a vaccine.  The problem is we haven't had a worldwide pandemic with modern technology for finding vaccines.  There's dozens of efforts and dozens of drugs being tested now.

I got tired of drug company CEOs touting their own products, and pumping up their own stock price or private investment.  I started to have that opinion about a professor from Oxford... but the more I read, the more it looked like she could be the real deal.  She has a vested interest as a co-founder, but has actually been working on a vaccine for MERS (another corona virus).  By swapping out the identifying proteins, she can target Sars-Cov-2 instead of MERS, and perhaps have equal progress.  The combination of a novel technique and related virus seems to make the chances stronger - helped along by it being an Oxford professor, rather than just another drug company executive.

So overall I'd lean towards optimism, and a market that doesn't keep going down.... but I have no idea how all the skipped rent payments and lack of economic activity plays out.  Does a business open up slowly because it has no customers?  And then customers are only slowly going back to work, so economic activity picks up slowly?

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 915
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #119 on: April 28, 2020, 07:35:45 PM »
I don't trust the results from those antibody tests at this point.  Too many false positives.

There are some much earlier estimates on public availability of a vaccine than the 1 to 2 year time frame stated in this thread.

I've read that putting ventilated patients on their stomachs part of the time improves their chances.  They're still learning.

Not all states are opening full throttle.  My state is about to begin a mandatory mask policy in public where social distancing isn't possible, such as in stores.

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3692
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #120 on: April 28, 2020, 08:59:26 PM »
A glimpse at our future:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21228512/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-moro

Spoiler alert:
Spoiler: show
Millions Die.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9724
  • Registered member
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #121 on: April 29, 2020, 01:11:08 AM »
Has the market stopped dropping yet?

UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8771
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #122 on: April 29, 2020, 05:01:03 AM »
Has the market stopped dropping yet?

what market?

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #123 on: April 30, 2020, 03:12:08 PM »

At this point, a vaccine looks more and more like a pipe dream.

Lol since they have been trying since the 70s I think you might be correct.

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #124 on: April 30, 2020, 03:29:41 PM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.

A little more numbers to chew on:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_23_april_2020.pdf


wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #125 on: April 30, 2020, 03:32:52 PM »
Has the market stopped dropping yet?

Once the new top is in that will signal the market has stopped its drop.  Now the million dollar question is when will King Thorstach give us the hint.

geekette

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2222
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #126 on: May 01, 2020, 09:30:50 AM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #127 on: May 01, 2020, 03:07:02 PM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2705
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #128 on: May 01, 2020, 04:07:49 PM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?

Interestingly, our odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident are not evenly distributed among the population either. Those who drink and drive, ride a motorcycle, spend more time driving, or are just bad drivers all pull the average up.


wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #129 on: May 01, 2020, 08:17:31 PM »

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?

geekette

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2222
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #130 on: May 01, 2020, 09:34:41 PM »

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?

And just how many people have died from one of the 100+ variants of the 4 common cold coronaviruses? 

From what I've read, there are vaccines for SARS and MERS, although SARS hasn't been seen for over a decade and MERS hasn't made it very far.

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2705
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #131 on: May 01, 2020, 09:42:03 PM »

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?

I think that's quite likely. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything?

Comparing something that has a tiny chance of happening each time you get in a car adding up to ~1%* chance spread out over a lifetime to a one time (hopefully) event just doesn't make sense. If immunity doesn't last and we can get the virus multiple times, then the odds of dying of Covid-19 would actually go up. I think this may be the opposite of the point you're trying to make.

*Probably much less for reasons I mentioned above.

harvestbook

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 211
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #132 on: May 03, 2020, 06:50:23 AM »
This thread is fascinating for how often everyone is wrong. (For the record, I still expect a 50-60 percent market drop but I sure look dumb right now. I didn't sell but I've been holding new cash since then.)

And also in retrospect you can easily tell which posters watch Fox News.

Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8215
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #133 on: May 03, 2020, 08:06:31 AM »
Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.

We watch our provincial COVID-19 briefings daily and it's interesting that they provide numbers of new cases and new deaths.....which are tragic don't me wrong, but if they provided totals of deaths that day from other causes like driving, cancer, regular flu, etc... the number of COVID-19 deaths would be a drop in the bucket. That's not to say we should take no action or that it's not serious, but to your point of a deaths/day stat being becoming normal you need to look at it in context of the other deaths that day.

ETA: in BC where I live an annual flu season sees ~475 deaths. So far we are at 112 COVID-19 deaths. Most of which are care home deaths of seniors.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2020, 08:13:35 AM by Retire-Canada »

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9724
  • Registered member
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #134 on: May 03, 2020, 10:47:07 PM »
Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.

We watch our provincial COVID-19 briefings daily and it's interesting that they provide numbers of new cases and new deaths.....which are tragic don't me wrong, but if they provided totals of deaths that day from other causes like driving, cancer, regular flu, etc... the number of COVID-19 deaths would be a drop in the bucket. That's not to say we should take no action or that it's not serious, but to your point of a deaths/day stat being becoming normal you need to look at it in context of the other deaths that day.

ETA: in BC where I live an annual flu season sees ~475 deaths. So far we are at 112 COVID-19 deaths. Most of which are care home deaths of seniors.

Well itís the leading cause of death in the US in recent days so you have something to look forward to if you donít take it seriously

bigblock440

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 261
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #135 on: May 04, 2020, 07:46:20 AM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?

Interestingly, our odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident are not evenly distributed among the population either. Those who drink and drive, ride a motorcycle, spend more time driving, or are just bad drivers all pull the average up.

You don't have a 1% chance of dying of the coronavirus over then next few weeks unless you already have it.

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3692
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #136 on: May 04, 2020, 11:28:31 AM »
There is a difference between a risk of death that is increasing at a rapid pace and a risk of death that is relatively fixed.

My odds of dying from colon cancer are relatively stable. This monthís odds are about the same as next monthís. My odds of dying from C19 are increasing each day as more people around me are infected and my chances of being infected rise. The much-mentioned ďcurveĒ of the pandemic also means if I am infected and have severe symptoms there will be insufficient medical care available for me. In addition to all that, as more and more people are infected, the odds increase that C19 will evolve into something worse. With a little foresight, I can anticipate a near future in which, say, 25% of the people around me are active carriers and there is no ambulance, bed, oxygen, ventilator, medicine, or medical professionals available to treat me if I need it.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8215
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #137 on: May 04, 2020, 11:47:24 AM »
In addition to all that, as more and more people are infected, the odds increase that C19 will evolve into something worse.

It works the other way. Viruses tend to evolve into milder forms because more deadly versions lead to dead ends since the hosts don't live as long as can't transmit them as well. So your odds get better with C19 in each successive mutation.

maisymouser

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 444
  • Age: 30
  • Location: NC
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #138 on: May 05, 2020, 04:46:57 PM »
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest. Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.

A little more numbers to chew on:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_23_april_2020.pdf

This seems like an obtuse way to put it. I'm 28 but I have a couple of chronic health conditions, for one. Number two- I am concerned for healthy young adults about long-lasting side effects from getting this virus that we are only beginning to start to understand. Number three- most importantly- I care about those I know who are over 60. I'm afraid for them.

It's not wrecking my life and I'm not experiencing higher blood pressure to my knowledge from the fear, but it's pretty realistic to be living in some fear at this point.

wienerdog

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #139 on: May 06, 2020, 07:01:27 AM »
For all you living in fear your great leader of the all encompassing Imperial Model is nothing more than a "Do as I say not as I do person".  Must of not believed in his own model or he doesn't care about others.

Do your own homework.  Don't listen to these tools.  It sure is odd Mr Ferguson behaves the same as the Illinois or Indiana governor when he is an "expert" on the subject.

More and more numbers show if you're over 60 (really moving towards 70 now) you should have real concerns.  The easiest way to beat this is to focus on your health and to stay smart. Turn the crap off and don't live in fear. Disease doesn't last long in a healthy body.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #140 on: May 06, 2020, 09:25:53 AM »
And just how many people have died from one of the 100+ variants of the 4 common cold coronaviruses? 

From what I've read, there are vaccines for SARS and MERS, although SARS hasn't been seen for over a decade and MERS hasn't made it very far.
I think Polio ended with a vaccine, after many years of outbreaks.  But that's not the case for the two corona virus you mentioned, according to the sources I checked:

"No vaccine or specific treatment for MERS is currently available"
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov)

"No vaccine for SARS ..."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/covid-questions-vaccine-1.5555432


Well itís the leading cause of death in the US in recent days so you have something to look forward to if you donít take it seriously
That's the most hilarious, succinct thing I've seen here for awhile.  :)  Thanks for that.

frugaldrummer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 845
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #141 on: May 15, 2020, 05:31:04 PM »
Just a point for those who are waiting for a vaccine - there are a TON of potential potholes between here and an available safe vaccine:

(And Iím pro vaccines, this is not an anti-vaxxer stance)

 CoVID is caused by a coronavirus. These are what are called positive sense single strand RNA viruses (+ssRNA). We have not brought a coronavirus vaccine for humans to completion before. And we havenít been very successful with vaccines against other +ssRNA viruses that are not coronaviruses (cousins to the coronaviruses, letís say). The obstacles that we have encountered in making vaccines against those ďcousinsĒ may well turn out to apply to CoVID too.

1)RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) - leading pneumonia killer of infants. We have been trying to make a successful vaccine for 50 years. We thought we had one 30 years ago but it caused immune enhancement - a condition where you get the vaccine, then when you get the virus you actually get SICKER than if you had no vaccine.

2) Dengue Fever - usually the second time you get dengue fever you get WAY sicker than the first. A while back we came up with a dengue vaccine and it was used extensively in the Philippines. Unfortunately, immune enhancement was also a problem with this vaccine and people who had never had dengue, had the vaccine, and then got dengue, got very ill as if it was their second case of dengue, not first. That vaccine is now only approved for people who have already had dengue once.

3) SARS - the same problem cropped up during attempts to make a SARS vaccine .

4) FIPV - a coronavirus of cats, attempts to make this vaccine were slowed by problems with either not generating immunity, or immune enhancement that led to death.

So researchers will have to overcome this big obstacle in order to have a safe CoVID vaccine.

Also - some of the most promising approaches for rapid development and production of a CoVID  vaccine lie in RNA and DNA vaccine technology. We donít really have much experience with getting these vaccines to work in humans.

Then - assuming EVERYTHING goes right, they manage to skirt immune enhancement problems, and can manufacture boatloads if vaccine - imagine the logistical problems of vaccinating the entire country/world? Shortages of needles and syringes are already being predicted.

Then one final problem - cold-type coronaviruses only generate immunity that lasts just a year or two. A CoVID vaccine may need to be repeated every year or two. And the mutation rate of this virus appears to be higher than first thought, so it may need to be changed yearly like flu vaccine.

Given all these technical problems, Iím not holding my breath (have you noticed we donít have an AIDS vaccine yet?). I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.


Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #142 on: May 15, 2020, 07:30:17 PM »
I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.

I hadn't heard about the vitamin D thing.  Dosage? 

frugaldrummer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 845
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #143 on: May 15, 2020, 07:51:32 PM »
Early data from the Philippines and elsewhere suggests that people with mild cases mostly have normal vitamin D levels, and people with the most severe CoVID disease almost all are deficient. Of course correlation is not causation but we know lots about the effects of vitamin D on the immune system. If you know youíre deficient or are likely to be deficient (northern latitude or little time outdoors without sunscreen) many would recommend 5,000 IU/d . Big experts in the field want to make 2,000 iu/d the new RDA. No reported toxicity on less than   10,000 IU/day for a year. Might be further benefits though to getting D from the sun. Time depends on latitude and season and time of day and amount of pigment in your skin. Iím green eyed with freckles and live in San Diego - 5-10 minutes midday 3 days a week without sunscreen is enough for me. My African American friend would need 30-40 minutes to make the same amount of D.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #144 on: May 16, 2020, 10:09:58 AM »
Early data from the Philippines and elsewhere suggests that people with mild cases mostly have normal vitamin D levels, and people with the most severe CoVID disease almost all are deficient. Of course correlation is not causation but we know lots about the effects of vitamin D on the immune system. If you know youíre deficient or are likely to be deficient (northern latitude or little time outdoors without sunscreen) many would recommend 5,000 IU/d . Big experts in the field want to make 2,000 iu/d the new RDA. No reported toxicity on less than   10,000 IU/day for a year. Might be further benefits though to getting D from the sun. Time depends on latitude and season and time of day and amount of pigment in your skin. Iím green eyed with freckles and live in San Diego - 5-10 minutes midday 3 days a week without sunscreen is enough for me. My African American friend would need 30-40 minutes to make the same amount of D.

Thanks for the info.  I'm D deficient in spite of being outside a lot, so I already take 5000 I/U a day. 

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4458
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #145 on: May 20, 2020, 10:35:53 AM »
Then one final problem - cold-type coronaviruses only generate immunity that lasts just a year or two. A CoVID vaccine may need to be repeated every year or two. And the mutation rate of this virus appears to be higher than first thought, so it may need to be changed yearly like flu vaccine.
I wish I was reading the same sources of information as you!  Sounds interesting and informative.  From what I've read, the mutation rate for SARS-CoV-2 is lower than other viruses, but you're saying that has changed.  I'd be curious where I can read about it (I failed in my Google searches, even after adding Lancet/NEJM/JAMA to the end).

Given all these technical problems, Iím not holding my breath (have you noticed we donít have an AIDS vaccine yet?). I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.
That would definitely be the weirdest end to the crisis that nobody imagined:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202005/research-suggests-link-between-vitamin-d-deficiency-and-covid-19-deaths
"When accounting for the effects of age, sex, and comorbidity, vitamin D status is strongly related to COVID-19 mortality."

One nit pick on an AIDS vaccine - normally vaccines are costly... but for a company that profits off AIDS treatment drugs, it could be doubly costly.  I'm guessing most drug companies are happy with the status quo, where AIDS patients have normal life expectancy, but must take various medications for the rest of their lives.
https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/21/58/fda-approved-hiv-medicines

Wintergreen78

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 447
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #146 on: May 20, 2020, 06:46:52 PM »
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #147 on: May 22, 2020, 05:06:42 PM »
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows? 

Wintergreen78

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 447
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #148 on: May 22, 2020, 06:31:41 PM »
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows?

So, it could go up more, then go back down again? Or maybe it could go up, then go up some more?

I think it could also fluctuate. Always a good chance of that.

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2454
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #149 on: May 22, 2020, 06:52:06 PM »
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.