Author Topic: This is when the market will stop dropping.  (Read 23153 times)

thd7t

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #50 on: March 27, 2020, 02:50:54 PM »
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!

fattest_foot

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #51 on: March 27, 2020, 03:05:24 PM »
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

More than likely there's a lot of overlap between that 1.77k and 2k.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #52 on: March 27, 2020, 03:21:03 PM »
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!

The world would be a boring place with no disagreement.  :>)  Especially quarantined until April 7th.  lol

South Korea did do things much different.  The amount of testing they did was awesome and probably the key to the whole thing.  Hopefully we all are learning and can make sense of the mess.

harvestbook

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #53 on: March 27, 2020, 03:24:34 PM »
The richest country happened to have the absolute worst coronavirus response out of all developed countries, so 6x the deaths of Italy seems like a useful rule of thumb to me, because the U.S. is closer to Italy than South Korea or China. And I'd double that because of our failed response and the utter lies and denial, complicated by a for-profit healthcare system.

So thousands of deaths a day for weeks seems pretty likely to me. But it doesn't matter what you think or I think. The virus does not care.

I'm not taking any extraordinary action but I'm thinking a 50-60 percent drop, because this will take months if not a couple of years to work our way out of.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #54 on: March 27, 2020, 03:46:56 PM »
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!

The world would be a boring place with no disagreement.  :>)  Especially quarantined until April 7th.  lol

South Korea did do things much different.  The amount of testing they did was awesome and probably the key to the whole thing.  Hopefully we all are learning and can make sense of the mess.


F*#k you wienerdog. dont you speak to me like that you s*n of a WH$r!...why I'll tear your A$% off....lol...joke

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #55 on: March 27, 2020, 04:01:06 PM »

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?

LOL Ray Dalio?  He had an interesting piece the other day.  At times I think he is frustrated because "his" way of thinking hasn't worked of the past several years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-commentary-changing-world-223358666.html


bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #56 on: March 27, 2020, 04:39:40 PM »

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?

LOL Ray Dalio?  He had an interesting piece the other day.  At times I think he is frustrated because "his" way of thinking hasn't worked of the past several years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-commentary-changing-world-223358666.html

yeah read it.  but can you imagine if he's right...currency devaluation, hyperinflation ,etc.  I really admire his model. meditation and working principles.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #57 on: March 28, 2020, 06:45:41 AM »
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy.

Looks like the Imperial college model was only off by a factor of 25 for the UK but his large number was if everyone didn't do social distancing is the excuse but everyone ran with it anyway.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

I bet in reality the Oxford model is going to be much better.  The antibody test that is coming to the UK will show a lot more people have had it than anyone knows as at this point people are pulling numbers out of their ass.  Look back at the CDC lab testing.  They were testing for it in the middle of Jan.  I am sure I had it on Jan 15th.  I wish the US would get to the testing levels of South Korea and Germany so all the nonsense can stop. 

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #58 on: March 28, 2020, 10:43:06 AM »
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

Do you read the links that you post?

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Florida and Texas still aren't locked down, and Trump wants to open up the county by Easter.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #59 on: March 28, 2020, 01:14:19 PM »
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

Do you read the links that you post?

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Florida and Texas still aren't locked down, and Trump wants to open up the county by Easter.

I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #60 on: March 28, 2020, 02:01:07 PM »
I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.

We'll see. Are you going to be "eating crow" when the US gets to 2K deaths per day? I still have $40 worth of betting money left.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #61 on: March 29, 2020, 07:46:34 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #62 on: March 29, 2020, 07:52:34 AM »
hey when did we all turn into market timers!! lol


Jack0Life

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #63 on: March 29, 2020, 09:51:34 AM »
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

PaulMaxime

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #64 on: March 29, 2020, 12:28:34 PM »
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.


This X 1000. The bottom comes when things look their worst when the maximum number of people have panicked and there's no where to go.

March 2009 did not seem like the tide had turned at all.

Huskers1

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #65 on: March 29, 2020, 02:48:25 PM »
Am I the only one that doesn't feel like 21600 is that far from what thisng should be valued at given the economic climate?

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #66 on: March 29, 2020, 03:58:46 PM »
I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.

We'll see. Are you going to be "eating crow" when the US gets to 2K deaths per day? I still have $40 worth of betting money left.

Seems like kind of a morbid thing to bet on but whatever floats your boat.

Same crap different day....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Until this happens no models will know real numbers as they all have assumptions that they are pulling out of their ass.  This is how you get real numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-testing-colorado-town-provide-forward/story?id=69856623

Joe Schmo

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #67 on: March 29, 2020, 04:08:31 PM »
The market will stop dropping when Trump manages to mention 37 companies (and in turn have their CEOs publicly kiss his ass) in his daily infomercial...errrr...press conference.
Getting close...

Telecaster

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #68 on: March 29, 2020, 04:32:42 PM »
First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

South Korea used aggressive social distancing measures, combined with widespread testing and contact tracing.   Our response is a tiny shadow of that, hence we should expect a higher number of cases. 


GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #70 on: March 29, 2020, 05:45:55 PM »
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

Jack0Life

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #71 on: March 29, 2020, 08:20:53 PM »
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #72 on: March 30, 2020, 03:17:22 AM »
read article this morning, someone quoted sp 500 of 2000 possible after covid peaks in USA....cant remember who but they were authortitive (sorry...age...memory....)....


wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #73 on: March 30, 2020, 06:45:43 AM »
They know what fixes it this is old news.  Israel has already shipped supplies last week and Bayer etc are all ramping production.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-fda-anti-malaria-drugs-emergency/story?id=69867398

I bet the only reason they waited as they didn't want it to go the way of toilet paper.  CDC has had it for treatment for weeks.

"In a statement released Sunday night, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced it had received 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and one million doses of hloroquine phosphate donated to a national stockpile of potentially life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, which are oral prescription drugs used primarily to prevent and treat malaria, are both being investigated as potential therapeutics for COVID-19."

« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 06:52:51 AM by wienerdog »

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #74 on: March 30, 2020, 07:24:30 AM »
If anti-malarials work, is quinine effective?  I'm willing to religiously drink gin and tonics if that's what's necessary for good health.  :P

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #75 on: March 30, 2020, 07:53:56 AM »
If anti-malarials work, is quinine effective?  I'm willing to religiously drink gin and tonics if that's what's necessary for good health.  :P

That should work.  Don't forget what Thomas Jefferson said:  Beer, if drunk in moderation, softens the temper, cheers the spirit and promotes health.  I am sure gin works the same for health.

Just don't use chloroquine phosphate.  Sometimes stupid should hurt.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #76 on: March 31, 2020, 06:25:54 AM »
More good news.

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/covid-19-me-angela-diffly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&v=hQV4YcaILDA

Make sure people know about it.  FDA approved it for "off label" use Sunday night when the supplies from Israel came in.


SaucyAussie

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #78 on: March 31, 2020, 07:34:44 AM »
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.

But what if that doesn't happen? (if didn't).  What if the market never drops below 20k again?  Do you have a plan B?

Joe Schmo

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #79 on: April 01, 2020, 04:23:04 PM »
Its over.
Trump just announced in his press conference that hes #1 on Facebook so...market will stop dropping.


Bottom is in.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #80 on: April 04, 2020, 11:28:43 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.
The DJIA closed at 21,052 on Friday, Apr. 3rd, down just under 584 points for the week. Compared to the past few weeks this was a relatively stable week. It appears as if the bulls and bears are in a tug of war trying to decide if the $2.2 trillion in spending is enough to get in front of the economic damage to come.

I am curious to watch the coming week unfold and see how the market reacts.

FrugalSaver

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #81 on: April 04, 2020, 12:39:40 PM »
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.


This X 1000. The bottom comes when things look their worst when the maximum number of people have panicked and there's no where to go.

March 2009 did not seem like the tide had turned at all.

This is true. Were not There yet. Maybe 2nd inning

Jack0Life

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #82 on: April 04, 2020, 12:48:41 PM »
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.

But what if that doesn't happen? (if didn't).  What if the market never drops below 20k again?  Do you have a plan B?

I pulled out really early so I have more room to be wrong than most people.
I reallocate about $200k @Dow 29400 and the rest $100k @Dow 26700.
As long as I get them back in anytime before Dow 26700, I'll still be way ahead.
Seeing how the market been performing the last 2-3 weeks, the big swings aren't happening much anymore. I did put back about $25k back in VTSAX for good @ Dow 21000.
I will admit I'm being greedy but not too greedy. I can just put everything back @ Dow 21000 right now and I'm way way ahead but I still feel like it will drop below 20k. Lets see how the next 2-3 weeks will played out.
Theres no way the Dow will get back to 26700 anytime soon

ChpBstrd

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #83 on: April 05, 2020, 08:46:33 PM »
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #84 on: April 06, 2020, 01:50:22 PM »
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.

I checked and the trailing PE for the SP 500 is 19.88.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Based on the risk environment were looking at? Really?  They can keep it. Ill go international or cash, thank you very much.

 They can flipping keep it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #85 on: April 06, 2020, 02:37:19 PM »
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.

I checked and the trailing PE for the SP 500 is 19.88.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Based on the risk environment were looking at? Really?  They can keep it. Ill go international or cash, thank you very much.

 They can flipping keep it.

What a difference a day makes. I was too busy or I might have doubled down on my long puts today.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #86 on: April 10, 2020, 12:35:56 PM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.
The DJIA closed at 21,052 on Friday, Apr. 3rd, down just under 584 points for the week. Compared to the past few weeks this was a relatively stable week. It appears as if the bulls and bears are in a tug of war trying to decide if the $2.2 trillion in spending is enough to get in front of the economic damage to come.

I am curious to watch the coming week unfold and see how the market reacts.

The market closed the week of Apr. 10th at 23,719, up 2667 points for the week. It appears as if the market has decided that $2,200,000,000,000 with this week's promise of loans of $2,300,000,000,000 is indeed enough to beat COVID-19.

I am not so sanguine.

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #87 on: April 10, 2020, 07:14:51 PM »
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are, exactly one fortnight later.

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #88 on: April 11, 2020, 12:55:29 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .

UnleashHell

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #89 on: April 11, 2020, 02:26:44 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .

he may be too busy educating himself.

retireby50

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #90 on: April 11, 2020, 02:33:59 PM »
This thread should be pinned for historical and learning purposes. It's fascinating to read thru it while correlating comment dates to market levels and COVID spread. What I have learned (again) 1. Don't time the markets 2. Listen to experts when I don't understand an issue like the spread of a novel coronavirus.

Telecaster

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #91 on: April 11, 2020, 02:52:58 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

They do love certainty.   By Easter there will be 2,000 deaths/day and we'll be short thousands of hospital beds.  That goal is dumb as rocks.

It is Easter Sunday.  Yesterday there were 2,108 deaths.   Now the hope is May 1, yet there is no plan of what to do.   There is still no widespread ability to do testing, or even enough ability to test medical providers.   The drive through testing at Wal-mart and CVS didn't happen (well, unless you count seven locations that aren't open to the public as a success).   Many health officials are saying even May 1 will be too soon, given the lack of planning. 

If I wanted to crater the economy, I'd do exactly what Trump is doing:  Make plans and statements based on wishful thinking instead of facts and science. 

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #92 on: April 12, 2020, 03:07:45 AM »
you gotta admit though, of all the polictiations, Trump has been the best in recent decades of distracting the public on a day to day basis from the real facts, and keeps the public and media in a looping cycle of arguements (distraction is 9/10s of the law?).  Worse still, alot just follow what he says blindly....its funny to watch from across the atlantic, kinda like a reality TV president?.

Infection and death will continue through the poulation in pulses and spikes, until there is a vaccine or mass/herd immunity.

it suits me to have an economic distaster since I am in the stock accumulation phase, so I dont need to suffer from a hopeful optimistic bias to 'stay positive'.  I try to view the larger important economies with increasing large unemployment, decreased consumption, decreased revenue intake, defaults, coporate debt issues, increased bail outs, potentially inflation in the long term.....not only in the USA

Still trying to study all of this as a hobby.  But as i said, a cheaper market may be fine for me, but its not for those struggling to buy food and pay bills. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #93 on: April 12, 2020, 08:38:37 PM »
you gotta admit though, of all the polictiations, Trump has been the best in recent decades of distracting the public on a day to day basis from the real facts, and keeps the public and media in a looping cycle of arguements (distraction is 9/10s of the law?).  Worse still, alot just follow what he says blindly....its funny to watch from across the atlantic, kinda like a reality TV president?.


It's not that Trump is particularly adept at being a politician, it's that 49% of us became the type of people who respond positively to such a person. Was it the thousands of hours we spent in the mid-2000's staring at the fakeness of obviously scripted "reality" television - knowing we were being lied to but not caring? Is there some pollutant causing mass stupidity, like lead pipes did for the Romans near the end of their empire? Or were we living lives of careless luxury, where our main problem is being bored by the humble competency our political leaders? Did Facebook jade us to such an extent that we just want to watch the world burn?

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #94 on: April 13, 2020, 01:27:15 PM »
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are, exactly one fortnight later.

You win not by a very good margin but you win!  So now how many of those people would have died anyway?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-impaired-immunity-gene-higher-covid-.html

Maybe to help you as the news doesn't have the answers.

http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200412-Daily-Aggregate-COVID19.pdf

Hypertension and diabetes doesn't do well for you....



VaCPA

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #95 on: April 13, 2020, 02:40:51 PM »
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are, exactly one fortnight later.

You win not by a very good margin but you win!  So now how many of those people would have died anyway?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-impaired-immunity-gene-higher-covid-.html

Maybe to help you as the news doesn't have the answers.

http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200412-Daily-Aggregate-COVID19.pdf

Hypertension and diabetes doesn't do well for you....
Not the greatest concession speech I've ever seen

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #96 on: April 13, 2020, 03:19:38 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .

Why would I apologize for being wrong?  I didn't take the bet that they wanted because I wouldn't put money on that type of thing.  I admitted they were right for one day we had 2035 deaths.  The day before 1901 and the day after was 1830.  Hardly good margin for a bet if you bet on things like that.

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #97 on: April 13, 2020, 03:43:31 PM »
I'm often an ass and often wrong.

What I've learned is that you can usually get away with being an ass when you're right.  You can usually get away with being wrong if you're polite.  But when you're both an ass and wrong it's usually time for an apology.  YMMV though.  :P

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #98 on: April 13, 2020, 04:41:14 PM »
I'm often an ass and often wrong.

What I've learned is that you can usually get away with being an ass when you're right.  You can usually get away with being wrong if you're polite.  But when you're both an ass and wrong it's usually time for an apology.  YMMV though.  :P

I don't think you understand as you said I was wrong on every point.  They wanted to bet $40 on 2000 deaths a day.  I am not betting on something like that even though I thought I was right which I admitted I was wrong.  If you followed the conversation you would know 2035 > 2000 because math so I was wrong.  I would be more worried about someone openly wanting to bet on something like that than someone you perceive as an ass on the internet but I guess you get different mileage than me.  I would never think anyone is an ass until I met them in person then I can make judgement.

Deaths 101
 Hospitalized 94 93.07
 ICU 67 66.34
 Intubated 63 62.38
 Underlying Medical Condition 57 56.44
 Hypertension 31 --
 Immunocompromised 3 --
 Chronic Heart Disease 14 --
 Chronic Liver Disease 1 --
 Chronic Kidney Disease 14 --
 Diabetes 26 --
 Neurologic/Neurodevelopmental 0 --
 Chronic Lung Disease 17 --
 None 7 --
 Other 27 --

Your odds aren't good if you have underlying medical conditions.  Obesity is a major factor and the diseases that go along with it.  Around here 11 would die in one day and 4 in another in nursing homes.  Those were the only deaths on those days.  When you're in a nursing home you don't have much longer to live anyway.  It is a fact of life.  Some of this comes down to saying the skydiver jumped out of the plane with no parachute but coronavirus killed him because they tested positive.  Old age is going to kill you and you don't have a choice.  Being overweight and the complications that come with it (Diabetes, high blood pressure etc) is curable if you want to.

57% of the people in Southern Nevada had underlying medical conditions that died yesterday.  Not many places report it like it is.   The whole point started with me saying there are plenty of other things that will kill you and I am surprised they aren't talked about.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #99 on: April 13, 2020, 04:55:25 PM »
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.