Author Topic: This is when the market will stop dropping.  (Read 23565 times)

bwall

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This is when the market will stop dropping.
« on: March 13, 2020, 08:40:09 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

MoMoneyFewerProblems

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2020, 08:43:38 AM »
Don't time the market. Now is a good time, because the market has already lost nearly 10,000 points. It's hard to say at what point the value becomes too good for investors to stay out. We could see greatest gain in a single day at any point, and I anticipate that record will be set at some point during this whole ordeal, and the timing will probably be unpredictable.

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2020, 10:33:20 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.

keep buying all the way down.... even if it is 10-15 years...

MaaS

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2020, 06:38:10 PM »
There are just so many factors at play here. Examples:

The oil price war could get resolved over the weekend, which along with the stimulus euphoria from this afternoon could send us roaring back.

Or, Spain could be shut down Italy-style by Monday morning with speculation France, Germany, and the U.S. is right behind.

Maybe both. Either way, I'll likely be doing some buying on Monday.

ChpBstrd

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2020, 10:26:54 PM »
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2020, 09:27:52 PM »
Here's what I know... If you wait until everything feels all warm & fuzzy and safe, the market will have already gone up. Just look at Friday. Up 10% in one day!!
I still think there's more hysteria to come. Some famous people will die. Hospitals will have to turn away patients or keep them in tents in parking lots. The media will freak out as always.
Seems like herd immunity is the end game. Lots of people need to get infected and then recover. That will take some time.

Missy B

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2020, 10:28:06 PM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.

keep buying all the way down.... even if it is 10-15 years...

It didn't take 10-15 years for H1N1, and it won't take 10-15 years for covid. It's a flu virus, and we make those every year. H1N1 was 'rushed'. What problems are there from that vaccine?

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2020, 11:35:08 PM »
It didn't take 10-15 years for H1N1, and it won't take 10-15 years for covid. It's a flu virus, and we make those every year. H1N1 was 'rushed'. What problems are there from that vaccine?

What's a flu virus? Not SAR-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19). SAR-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, not an influenza virus. The human race has never made a successful coronavirus vaccine.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2020, 01:18:40 AM »
The experts I've heard say a vaccine would be available at the earliest in 12-18 months.  If a vaccine causes severe harm 20% of the time, that can be seen in an early, small trial.  But if it's 5% of the time, they need a larger trial... and so on.  So counting on a vaccine to stop the market is very unlikely in 2020.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2020, 01:48:38 PM »
Thanks for the replies.

I know that each bear market is different.

In the most recent one the bear market began in Oct,  2007, the recession began in Dec, 2007, but the bottom wasn't reached until March, 2009. It took 17 months (or so) to reach bottom.

In the 2000's it also took over a year to hit the bottom.

Same thing in 1929 (as @ChpBstrd mentions), the bottom wasn't until 1932, a full two plus years after the crash in October '29.

I guess the overarching point I'm trying to make is 'The stock market isn't out of the woods yet by a long shot.' The bear market just started, even after Friday's HUUUUGGGEEEE gain. There are lots more bulls that need to be converted into bears.

And, until we have containment (either via a vaccination or it's run it's course) there will be plenty of bad news to come out. This bad news will cause the markets to drop.

marty998

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2020, 02:25:26 PM »
There are just so many factors at play here. Examples:

The oil price war could get resolved over the weekend, which along with the stimulus euphoria from this afternoon could send us roaring back.

Or, Spain could be shut down Italy-style by Monday morning with speculation France, Germany, and the U.S. is right behind.

Maybe both. Either way, I'll likely be doing some buying on Monday.

All of that has come to pass.

Corporates have a habit of doing capital raising and rights issues right at the very bottom. You know to hit the buy button when companies pass the hat around for spare change.

v8rx7guy

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2020, 04:00:12 PM »
In my opinion, with times like these, the news just needs to be "less bad" to stop it from dropping.

hodedofome

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2020, 09:00:58 PM »
Thanks for the replies.

I know that each bear market is different.

In the most recent one the bear market began in Oct,  2007, the recession began in Dec, 2007, but the bottom wasn't reached until March, 2009. It took 17 months (or so) to reach bottom.

In the 2000's it also took over a year to hit the bottom.

Same thing in 1929 (as @ChpBstrd mentions), the bottom wasn't until 1932, a full two plus years after the crash in October '29.

I guess the overarching point I'm trying to make is 'The stock market isn't out of the woods yet by a long shot.' The bear market just started, even after Friday's HUUUUGGGEEEE gain. There are lots more bulls that need to be converted into bears.

And, until we have containment (either via a vaccination or it's run it's course) there will be plenty of bad news to come out. This bad news will cause the markets to drop.

Both price and time are a factor. You can have a long, drawn out bear market or you can have a short, steep one. Doesnít matter if it takes 2 years or one month, if the market drops 50% youíre probably at the bottom.

ender

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2020, 09:15:49 PM »
I think as soon as people have confidence in the outcome from covid19, the market will stabilize.

Even if that confidence is in "bad" it'll still provide a lot of stability.

Telecaster

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2020, 09:28:42 PM »
The market is a leading indicator.  It will stop dropping when the news is the worst. 

American GenX

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2020, 09:43:25 PM »

40% to 50% off highs.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2020, 03:56:40 PM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

Full_Beard

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2020, 01:11:37 AM »
it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.
Where on earth are you getting those numbers? The more reliable is estimate 12-18 months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

ender

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2020, 07:21:03 AM »
it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.
Where on earth are you getting those numbers? The more reliable is estimate 12-18 months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

This is of course assuming there's still effort towards creating one if/when this is burned out.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2020, 04:21:53 PM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.


absolutely....USA will be over run inn 3-5 weeks give or take. market will slump significantly

totally agree dude.

real bottom is not in...yet

Alchemisst

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2020, 06:13:52 PM »
Surprised it's up the last couple of days, virus seems to be spreading faster and I think the long term effects of business closures/ lower profits will linger atleast a year or 2.

ender

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2020, 06:57:54 PM »
Surprised it's up the last couple of days, virus seems to be spreading faster and I think the long term effects of business closures/ lower profits will linger atleast a year or 2.

It depends, though.

Did the prices dropping so much price that drop in and now that there seems to be a relief plan, realize it was over priced in?

Or were prices not expecting a more worst case outcome?

Guess we'll find out over the next few months.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2020, 02:30:57 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz

Garrett B.

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2020, 03:13:10 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did. 

VaCPA

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2020, 03:36:56 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.
Is that certainty though or wishful thinking? I don't think that's a realistic goal, unless he wants to undo all the progress the social distancing has accomplished so far. His comments and the stimulus provided a temporary pop but might be short lived if the coronavirus situation continues to deteriorate here. Then again, I'm no medical expert and at best an amateur economist.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2020, 04:18:32 PM »
I am not the biggest optimist in the world but the US just passed China and Italy in cases. Perhaps 10,000 dead will trigger a real lockdown. It will take the same mental fortitude, personal responsibility and ingenuity that other generations of Americans exhibited...to save thousands of lives.  Stocks are whistling past the graveyard because of all that cheap money.

Schaefer Light

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #26 on: March 26, 2020, 04:20:55 PM »
The Dow just had it's biggest 3 day increase since 1931, but look at what happened in 1932.  I don't think we're out of the woods just yet.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2020, 04:34:58 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

Weíll see. Hereís a couple of charts of stock prices for both the Great Depression and the GFC.

First, the Great Depression


And hereís the GFC:

m

Take a look at what happened early on in each crash. A steep drop and then an increase and then a drop to the bottom.

Is this time different? We have what, over 3 million people out of work in the last week. Deaths from COVID 19 just starting to ramp up. And now a market rally.  Will it last? It could. I doubt it, but sure. Itís possible.

nsmall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2020, 04:50:06 PM »
"This is when the market will stop dropping"  Funny VTI is up 17% from the "bottom" and neither of your predictions have come to fruition. 

Telecaster

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2020, 04:52:44 PM »
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

They do love certainty.   By Easter there will be 2,000 deaths/day and we'll be short thousands of hospital beds.  That goal is dumb as rocks. 

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #30 on: March 26, 2020, 05:08:33 PM »
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that

Who can really think that a market can go up with that.?

Iím willing to gamble a close relative on that one...


ChpBstrd

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2020, 09:45:31 AM »
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that

Who can really think that a market can go up with that.?

Iím willing to gamble a close relative on that one...

Why gamble a relative when bearish vertical spreads are such screaming bargains? A flip side of high volatility is small spreads between near the money options. Meaning, itís relatively cheap to bet on a decline using spreads.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2020, 09:58:34 AM »
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that


Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.  Why aren't you and the media concerned about our American diet?  Are you really shocked or is the media putting that into your head?  Turn off the crap (Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc) and enjoy your day.

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 10:11:35 AM »
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 10:13:10 AM by PDXTabs »

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 10:19:28 AM »
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

Also, it's not like heart disease is gonna stop.  In fact, when hospitals are overwhelmed it's likely the deaths from heart disease will also go up.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2020, 10:39:50 AM »
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

Sorry used "heart disease" and US citizen as a generic term. I can understand it would confuse some.  A little math.  Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.


Also, it's not like heart disease is gonna stop.  In fact, when hospitals are overwhelmed it's likely the deaths from heart disease will also go up.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #36 on: March 27, 2020, 10:49:51 AM »
Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.

This is the source for that statistic. I believe that to get to 2.34K/day you need to lump in Cerebrovascular disease.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.

I agree, but they'll need to actually exercise too.

Also, this is the investor forum, not the philosophers forum, so how people react to an extra 2K US residents dying per day absolutely matters. Also, the diminished supply and demand for goods and services. We're used to the current death rate, we aren't used to adding another 2K per day.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #37 on: March 27, 2020, 10:54:00 AM »
Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.

This is the source for that statistic. I believe that to get to 2.34K/day you need to lump in Cerebrovascular disease.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.

Also, this is the investor forum, not the philosophers forum, so how people react to an extra 2K US residents dying per day absolutely matters.

Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #38 on: March 27, 2020, 11:09:59 AM »
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy.

Gone Fishing

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #39 on: March 27, 2020, 11:16:15 AM »
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that


Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.  Why aren't you and the media concerned about our American diet?  Are you really shocked or is the media putting that into your head?  Turn off the crap (Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc) and enjoy your day.

Heart disease isn't contagious.  You won't get it from the guy buying twinkies when you are standing in the checkout line with your vegetables.

theolympians

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #40 on: March 27, 2020, 11:17:35 AM »
I agree. Turn off your TV.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #41 on: March 27, 2020, 11:42:16 AM »
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy.


If you believe those two prove that is how you get to 2000 deaths per day here in the US then I can't help you.  Turn off the crap and enjoy your day.  Remember live to be smart not in fear.  Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.  Hell we all got plenty of time on our hands now.  There are no excuses.

PDXTabs

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #42 on: March 27, 2020, 11:50:22 AM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #43 on: March 27, 2020, 12:04:34 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #44 on: March 27, 2020, 02:00:54 PM »
Well who knows why you used Italy instead of South Korea....

https://www.undrr.org/news/how-south-korea-suppressing-covid-19

Research remdesivir, kaletra, ciclesonide, azithromycin and chloroquine or the new version Hydroxychlorquine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html

http://www.med.umich.edu/asp/pdf/adult_guidelines/COVID-19-treatment.pdf

https://www.henryford.com/hcp/academic/medicine/divisions/id/hiv-consult/covid19

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/14/1/14_2020.01047/_pdf/-char/en

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/covid-19-india-recommends-hydroxychloroquine-as-prophylaxis-for-healthcare-providers-patient-family-members

https://tansan.com.tr/a-possible-role-for-single-dose-hydroxychloroquine-for-prevention-of-lethal-coronavirus-infection/

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/coronavirus-israel-usa/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

https://youtu.be/LtfUxEKU82Y  Note: Youtube might sensor as they have with other videos.

If you want to generally be prepared before things go wrong get Quercetin and Zinc.  Follow WebMD's dosage rates.  You probably should be taking that stuff at the beginning of flu season anyway.

https://www.mcgilltribune.com/sci-tech/montreal-researchers-propose-a-treatment-for-covid-19-170320/

Remember a virus' purpose is to replicate.  The body sometimes needs a little help before the immune system recognizes the virus.  You can take supplements that slows down the replication of the virus.  People with compromised immune systems are at the biggest risk.  Sugar and things that your body converts to sugar hurt the immune system for hours.  Lack of sleep hurts the immune system.  Stress / fear hurts the immune system (turn the crap off - Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

Happy investing, turn the crap off and remember The Top isn't In!

thd7t

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #45 on: March 27, 2020, 02:16:59 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday. 

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #46 on: March 27, 2020, 02:33:34 PM »
yeah ok, no one can time the market, but its slightly entertaining try to.

im gambling a kidney its about the same time the USA has 50% infection rate.

wienerdog

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #47 on: March 27, 2020, 02:43:57 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday.

Turn the crap off.  South Korea population - 51 million. Italy population - 60 million.  US population 327 million.

Median age Italy 5th in the world,  South Korea 36, US 61.

You aren't looking at the heat map hourly are you?

thd7t

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #48 on: March 27, 2020, 02:47:56 PM »
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday.

Turn the crap off.  South Korea population - 51 million. Italy population - 60 million.  US population 327 million.

Median age Italy 5th in the world,  South Korea 36, US 61.

You aren't looking at the heat map hourly are you?
I did look at it yesterday, which seems like enough!  You've posted a dozen stories and videos, but the first one shows how South Korea's response doesn't resemble the US response at all.    You're definitely right about one thing: Turn the Crap Off!

ETA: you're looking at countries whose median ages are about 5 years apart, which doesn't feel like a strong argument.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:49:56 PM by thd7t »

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #49 on: March 27, 2020, 02:49:11 PM »
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.