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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: bwall on March 13, 2020, 08:40:09 AM

Title: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on March 13, 2020, 08:40:09 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MoMoneyFewerProblems on March 13, 2020, 08:43:38 AM
Don't time the market. Now is a good time, because the market has already lost nearly 10,000 points. It's hard to say at what point the value becomes too good for investors to stay out. We could see greatest gain in a single day at any point, and I anticipate that record will be set at some point during this whole ordeal, and the timing will probably be unpredictable.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: NWOutlier on March 13, 2020, 10:33:20 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.

keep buying all the way down.... even if it is 10-15 years...
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MaaS on March 13, 2020, 06:38:10 PM
There are just so many factors at play here. Examples:

The oil price war could get resolved over the weekend, which along with the stimulus euphoria from this afternoon could send us roaring back.

Or, Spain could be shut down Italy-style by Monday morning with speculation France, Germany, and the U.S. is right behind.

Maybe both. Either way, I'll likely be doing some buying on Monday.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 13, 2020, 10:26:54 PM
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on March 14, 2020, 09:27:52 PM
Here's what I know... If you wait until everything feels all warm & fuzzy and safe, the market will have already gone up. Just look at Friday. Up 10% in one day!!
I still think there's more hysteria to come. Some famous people will die. Hospitals will have to turn away patients or keep them in tents in parking lots. The media will freak out as always.
Seems like herd immunity is the end game. Lots of people need to get infected and then recover. That will take some time.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Missy B on March 14, 2020, 10:28:06 PM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.

keep buying all the way down.... even if it is 10-15 years...

It didn't take 10-15 years for H1N1, and it won't take 10-15 years for covid. It's a flu virus, and we make those every year. H1N1 was 'rushed'. What problems are there from that vaccine?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 14, 2020, 11:35:08 PM
It didn't take 10-15 years for H1N1, and it won't take 10-15 years for covid. It's a flu virus, and we make those every year. H1N1 was 'rushed'. What problems are there from that vaccine?

What's a flu virus? Not SAR-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19). SAR-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, not an influenza virus. The human race has never made a successful coronavirus vaccine.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 15, 2020, 01:18:40 AM
The experts I've heard say a vaccine would be available at the earliest in 12-18 months.  If a vaccine causes severe harm 20% of the time, that can be seen in an early, small trial.  But if it's 5% of the time, they need a larger trial... and so on.  So counting on a vaccine to stop the market is very unlikely in 2020.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on March 15, 2020, 01:48:38 PM
Thanks for the replies.

I know that each bear market is different.

In the most recent one the bear market began in Oct,  2007, the recession began in Dec, 2007, but the bottom wasn't reached until March, 2009. It took 17 months (or so) to reach bottom.

In the 2000's it also took over a year to hit the bottom.

Same thing in 1929 (as @ChpBstrd mentions), the bottom wasn't until 1932, a full two plus years after the crash in October '29.

I guess the overarching point I'm trying to make is 'The stock market isn't out of the woods yet by a long shot.' The bear market just started, even after Friday's HUUUUGGGEEEE gain. There are lots more bulls that need to be converted into bears.

And, until we have containment (either via a vaccination or it's run it's course) there will be plenty of bad news to come out. This bad news will cause the markets to drop.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: marty998 on March 15, 2020, 02:25:26 PM
There are just so many factors at play here. Examples:

The oil price war could get resolved over the weekend, which along with the stimulus euphoria from this afternoon could send us roaring back.

Or, Spain could be shut down Italy-style by Monday morning with speculation France, Germany, and the U.S. is right behind.

Maybe both. Either way, I'll likely be doing some buying on Monday.

All of that has come to pass.

Corporates have a habit of doing capital raising and rights issues right at the very bottom. You know to hit the buy button when companies pass the hat around for spare change.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 15, 2020, 04:00:12 PM
In my opinion, with times like these, the news just needs to be "less bad" to stop it from dropping.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: hodedofome on March 17, 2020, 09:00:58 PM
Thanks for the replies.

I know that each bear market is different.

In the most recent one the bear market began in Oct,  2007, the recession began in Dec, 2007, but the bottom wasn't reached until March, 2009. It took 17 months (or so) to reach bottom.

In the 2000's it also took over a year to hit the bottom.

Same thing in 1929 (as @ChpBstrd mentions), the bottom wasn't until 1932, a full two plus years after the crash in October '29.

I guess the overarching point I'm trying to make is 'The stock market isn't out of the woods yet by a long shot.' The bear market just started, even after Friday's HUUUUGGGEEEE gain. There are lots more bulls that need to be converted into bears.

And, until we have containment (either via a vaccination or it's run it's course) there will be plenty of bad news to come out. This bad news will cause the markets to drop.

Both price and time are a factor. You can have a long, drawn out bear market or you can have a short, steep one. Doesnít matter if it takes 2 years or one month, if the market drops 50% youíre probably at the bottom.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ender on March 17, 2020, 09:15:49 PM
I think as soon as people have confidence in the outcome from covid19, the market will stabilize.

Even if that confidence is in "bad" it'll still provide a lot of stability.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Telecaster on March 17, 2020, 09:28:42 PM
The market is a leading indicator.  It will stop dropping when the news is the worst. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: American GenX on March 17, 2020, 09:43:25 PM

40% to 50% off highs.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on March 21, 2020, 03:56:40 PM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Full_Beard on March 24, 2020, 01:11:37 AM
it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.
Where on earth are you getting those numbers? The more reliable is estimate 12-18 months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ender on March 24, 2020, 07:21:03 AM
it takes 10-15 years to research, create and test a valid/safe vaccine... sure, they can rush one... but if you want to wait for the rushed version that creates different problems or 10-15 years...  I agree with some of your statements.. but I don't think the market or the world are as binary as your points made.
Where on earth are you getting those numbers? The more reliable is estimate 12-18 months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

This is of course assuming there's still effort towards creating one if/when this is burned out.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 25, 2020, 04:21:53 PM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.


absolutely....USA will be over run inn 3-5 weeks give or take. market will slump significantly

totally agree dude.

real bottom is not in...yet
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Alchemisst on March 25, 2020, 06:13:52 PM
Surprised it's up the last couple of days, virus seems to be spreading faster and I think the long term effects of business closures/ lower profits will linger atleast a year or 2.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ender on March 25, 2020, 06:57:54 PM
Surprised it's up the last couple of days, virus seems to be spreading faster and I think the long term effects of business closures/ lower profits will linger atleast a year or 2.

It depends, though.

Did the prices dropping so much price that drop in and now that there seems to be a relief plan, realize it was over priced in?

Or were prices not expecting a more worst case outcome?

Guess we'll find out over the next few months.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 26, 2020, 02:30:57 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Garrett B. on March 26, 2020, 03:13:10 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: VaCPA on March 26, 2020, 03:36:56 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.
Is that certainty though or wishful thinking? I don't think that's a realistic goal, unless he wants to undo all the progress the social distancing has accomplished so far. His comments and the stimulus provided a temporary pop but might be short lived if the coronavirus situation continues to deteriorate here. Then again, I'm no medical expert and at best an amateur economist.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: blue_green_sparks on March 26, 2020, 04:18:32 PM
I am not the biggest optimist in the world but the US just passed China and Italy in cases. Perhaps 10,000 dead will trigger a real lockdown. It will take the same mental fortitude, personal responsibility and ingenuity that other generations of Americans exhibited...to save thousands of lives.  Stocks are whistling past the graveyard because of all that cheap money.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Schaefer Light on March 26, 2020, 04:20:55 PM
The Dow just had it's biggest 3 day increase since 1931, but look at what happened in 1932.  I don't think we're out of the woods just yet.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 26, 2020, 04:34:58 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

Weíll see. Hereís a couple of charts of stock prices for both the Great Depression and the GFC.

First, the Great Depression
(http://www.online-stock-trading-guide.com/image-files/1929-1932-stock-chart-s.png)

And hereís the GFC:

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amibrokeracademy.com%2Famibroker%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F06%2F20140620-STI-Weekly.png&f=1&nofb=1)m

Take a look at what happened early on in each crash. A steep drop and then an increase and then a drop to the bottom.

Is this time different? We have what, over 3 million people out of work in the last week. Deaths from COVID 19 just starting to ramp up. And now a market rally.  Will it last? It could. I doubt it, but sure. Itís possible.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: nsmall on March 26, 2020, 04:50:06 PM
"This is when the market will stop dropping"  Funny VTI is up 17% from the "bottom" and neither of your predictions have come to fruition. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Telecaster on March 26, 2020, 04:52:44 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

They do love certainty.   By Easter there will be 2,000 deaths/day and we'll be short thousands of hospital beds.  That goal is dumb as rocks. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 26, 2020, 05:08:33 PM
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that

Who can really think that a market can go up with that.?

Iím willing to gamble a close relative on that one...

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 27, 2020, 09:45:31 AM
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that

Who can really think that a market can go up with that.?

Iím willing to gamble a close relative on that one...

Why gamble a relative when bearish vertical spreads are such screaming bargains? A flip side of high volatility is small spreads between near the money options. Meaning, itís relatively cheap to bet on a decline using spreads.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 09:58:34 AM
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that


Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.  Why aren't you and the media concerned about our American diet?  Are you really shocked or is the media putting that into your head?  Turn off the crap (Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc) and enjoy your day.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 27, 2020, 10:11:35 AM
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on March 27, 2020, 10:19:28 AM
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

Also, it's not like heart disease is gonna stop.  In fact, when hospitals are overwhelmed it's likely the deaths from heart disease will also go up.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 10:39:50 AM
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

Sorry used "heart disease" and US citizen as a generic term. I can understand it would confuse some.  A little math.  Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds  (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.


Also, it's not like heart disease is gonna stop.  In fact, when hospitals are overwhelmed it's likely the deaths from heart disease will also go up.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 27, 2020, 10:49:51 AM
Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds  (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.

This is the source for that statistic (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf). I believe that to get to 2.34K/day you need to lump in Cerebrovascular disease.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.

I agree, but they'll need to actually exercise too.

Also, this is the investor forum, not the philosophers forum, so how people react to an extra 2K US residents dying per day absolutely matters. Also, the diminished supply and demand for goods and services. We're used to the current death rate, we aren't used to adding another 2K per day.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 10:54:00 AM
Cardiovascular disease kills kills one person every 37 seconds  (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) in the USA per year.  60 secs/min x 60 min/hour x 24 hour/day x 365 days = 31536000 seconds.  31536000 seconds / 37 for every death / year = 852324.324324 deaths / year.  852324.324324 deaths / year / 365 days / year = 2335.13513514.  Also 2335.13513514 > 2000.  Blah blah blah blah.  I guess you missed the whole point.

This is the source for that statistic (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf). I believe that to get to 2.34K/day you need to lump in Cerebrovascular disease.

Why can't it be drastically lowered?  A simple diet change is all that is needed.  You choose if you want to do it or not.  Most are too lazy and want to take a pill because that is what the doctor tells them to do.

Also, this is the investor forum, not the philosophers forum, so how people react to an extra 2K US residents dying per day absolutely matters.

Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 27, 2020, 11:09:59 AM
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/).
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Gone Fishing on March 27, 2020, 11:16:15 AM
2000 death per day....what a shocking thought. And to think the main thing we think about is share price....how disgusting is that


Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.  Why aren't you and the media concerned about our American diet?  Are you really shocked or is the media putting that into your head?  Turn off the crap (Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc) and enjoy your day.

Heart disease isn't contagious.  You won't get it from the guy buying twinkies when you are standing in the checkout line with your vegetables.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: theolympians on March 27, 2020, 11:17:35 AM
I agree. Turn off your TV.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 11:42:16 AM
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/).


If you believe those two prove that is how you get to 2000 deaths per day here in the US then I can't help you.  Turn off the crap and enjoy your day.  Remember live to be smart not in fear.  Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.  Hell we all got plenty of time on our hands now.  There are no excuses.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 27, 2020, 11:50:22 AM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 02:00:54 PM
Well who knows why you used Italy instead of South Korea....

https://www.undrr.org/news/how-south-korea-suppressing-covid-19

Research remdesivir, kaletra, ciclesonide, azithromycin and chloroquine or the new version Hydroxychlorquine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html

http://www.med.umich.edu/asp/pdf/adult_guidelines/COVID-19-treatment.pdf

https://www.henryford.com/hcp/academic/medicine/divisions/id/hiv-consult/covid19

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/14/1/14_2020.01047/_pdf/-char/en

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/covid-19-india-recommends-hydroxychloroquine-as-prophylaxis-for-healthcare-providers-patient-family-members

https://tansan.com.tr/a-possible-role-for-single-dose-hydroxychloroquine-for-prevention-of-lethal-coronavirus-infection/

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/coronavirus-israel-usa/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

https://youtu.be/LtfUxEKU82Y  Note: Youtube might sensor as they have with other videos.

If you want to generally be prepared before things go wrong get Quercetin and Zinc.  Follow WebMD's dosage rates.  You probably should be taking that stuff at the beginning of flu season anyway.

https://www.mcgilltribune.com/sci-tech/montreal-researchers-propose-a-treatment-for-covid-19-170320/

Remember a virus' purpose is to replicate.  The body sometimes needs a little help before the immune system recognizes the virus.  You can take supplements that slows down the replication of the virus.  People with compromised immune systems are at the biggest risk.  Sugar and things that your body converts to sugar hurt the immune system for hours.  Lack of sleep hurts the immune system.  Stress / fear hurts the immune system (turn the crap off - Fox News, MSNBC, CNN etc). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

Happy investing, turn the crap off and remember The Top isn't In!
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on March 27, 2020, 02:16:59 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 27, 2020, 02:33:34 PM
yeah ok, no one can time the market, but its slightly entertaining try to.

im gambling a kidney its about the same time the USA has 50% infection rate.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 02:43:57 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday.

Turn the crap off.  South Korea population - 51 million. Italy population - 60 million.  US population 327 million.

Median age Italy 5th in the world,  South Korea 36, US 61.

You aren't looking at the heat map hourly are you?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on March 27, 2020, 02:47:56 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?
It might be that we had twice as many deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than South Korea has had throughout the entire outbreak, or that we surpassed the number of cases that Italy has yesterday.

Turn the crap off.  South Korea population - 51 million. Italy population - 60 million.  US population 327 million.

Median age Italy 5th in the world,  South Korea 36, US 61.

You aren't looking at the heat map hourly are you?
I did look at it yesterday, which seems like enough!  You've posted a dozen stories and videos, but the first one shows how South Korea's response doesn't resemble the US response at all.    You're definitely right about one thing: Turn the Crap Off!

ETA: you're looking at countries whose median ages are about 5 years apart, which doesn't feel like a strong argument.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 27, 2020, 02:49:11 PM
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on March 27, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: fattest_foot on March 27, 2020, 03:05:24 PM
Heart disease kills over 2000 US citizens a day.

A little math. Heart disease kills ~647K (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm) people in the USA per year. 647K/365 = 1.77K. But not all of them were citizens. Also, 1.77 < 2.

Also, imagine if we went from 1.77K to 3.77K per day, wouldn't that be bad? If you go from making $177 per day to $377 per day, isn't that a big jump?

More than likely there's a lot of overlap between that 1.77k and 2k.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 03:21:03 PM
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!

The world would be a boring place with no disagreement.  :>)  Especially quarantined until April 7th.  lol

South Korea did do things much different.  The amount of testing they did was awesome and probably the key to the whole thing.  Hopefully we all are learning and can make sense of the mess.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: harvestbook on March 27, 2020, 03:24:34 PM
The richest country happened to have the absolute worst coronavirus response out of all developed countries, so 6x the deaths of Italy seems like a useful rule of thumb to me, because the U.S. is closer to Italy than South Korea or China. And I'd double that because of our failed response and the utter lies and denial, complicated by a for-profit healthcare system.

So thousands of deaths a day for weeks seems pretty likely to me. But it doesn't matter what you think or I think. The virus does not care.

I'm not taking any extraordinary action but I'm thinking a 50-60 percent drop, because this will take months if not a couple of years to work our way out of.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 27, 2020, 03:46:56 PM
play gentle guys.....its just a blog.
But we briefly disagree!

The world would be a boring place with no disagreement.  :>)  Especially quarantined until April 7th.  lol

South Korea did do things much different.  The amount of testing they did was awesome and probably the key to the whole thing.  Hopefully we all are learning and can make sense of the mess.


F*#k you wienerdog. dont you speak to me like that you s*n of a WH$£r!...why I'll tear your A$% off....lol...joke

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 04:01:06 PM

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?

LOL Ray Dalio?  He had an interesting piece the other day.  At times I think he is frustrated because "his" way of thinking hasn't worked of the past several years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-commentary-changing-world-223358666.html

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 27, 2020, 04:39:40 PM

yeah your right bro...but wait!...doesnt Dalio advocate 'thoughtful disagreement'?

LOL Ray Dalio?  He had an interesting piece the other day.  At times I think he is frustrated because "his" way of thinking hasn't worked of the past several years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-commentary-changing-world-223358666.html

yeah read it.  but can you imagine if he's right...currency devaluation, hyperinflation ,etc.  I really admire his model. meditation and working principles.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 28, 2020, 06:45:41 AM
Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

I have the Imperial College paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) combined with the current numbers coming out of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/).

Looks like the Imperial college model was only off by a factor of 25 for the UK but his large number was if everyone didn't do social distancing is the excuse but everyone ran with it anyway.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

I bet in reality the Oxford model is going to be much better.  The antibody test that is coming to the UK will show a lot more people have had it than anyone knows as at this point people are pulling numbers out of their ass.  Look back at the CDC lab testing.  They were testing for it in the middle of Jan.  I am sure I had it on Jan 15th.  I wish the US would get to the testing levels of South Korea and Germany so all the nonsense can stop. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 28, 2020, 10:43:06 AM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

Do you read the links that you post?

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Florida and Texas still aren't locked down, and Trump wants to open up the county by Easter.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 28, 2020, 01:14:19 PM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243294815200124928.html

Do you read the links that you post?

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Florida and Texas still aren't locked down, and Trump wants to open up the county by Easter.

I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on March 28, 2020, 02:01:07 PM
I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.

We'll see. Are you going to be "eating crow" when the US gets to 2K deaths per day? I still have $40 worth of betting money left.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on March 29, 2020, 07:46:34 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 29, 2020, 07:52:34 AM
hey when did we all turn into market timers!! lol

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Jack0Life on March 29, 2020, 09:51:34 AM
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PaulMaxime on March 29, 2020, 12:28:34 PM
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.


This X 1000. The bottom comes when things look their worst when the maximum number of people have panicked and there's no where to go.

March 2009 did not seem like the tide had turned at all.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Huskers1 on March 29, 2020, 02:48:25 PM
Am I the only one that doesn't feel like 21600 is that far from what thisng should be valued at given the economic climate?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 29, 2020, 03:58:46 PM
I read the whole link.  That is what you call eating crow.  He has no idea where the numbers would be.

We'll see. Are you going to be "eating crow" when the US gets to 2K deaths per day? I still have $40 worth of betting money left.

Seems like kind of a morbid thing to bet on but whatever floats your boat.

Same crap different day....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Until this happens no models will know real numbers as they all have assumptions that they are pulling out of their ass.  This is how you get real numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-testing-colorado-town-provide-forward/story?id=69856623
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Joe Schmo on March 29, 2020, 04:08:31 PM
The market will stop dropping when Trump manages to mention 37 companies (and in turn have their CEOs publicly kiss his ass) in his daily infomercial...errrr...press conference.
Getting close...
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Telecaster on March 29, 2020, 04:32:42 PM
First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

South Korea used aggressive social distancing measures, combined with widespread testing and contact tracing.   Our response is a tiny shadow of that, hence we should expect a higher number of cases. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 29, 2020, 04:57:09 PM
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244057432801906689.html
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on March 29, 2020, 05:45:55 PM
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Jack0Life on March 29, 2020, 08:20:53 PM
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on March 30, 2020, 03:17:22 AM
read article this morning, someone quoted sp 500 of 2000 possible after covid peaks in USA....cant remember who but they were authortitive (sorry...age...memory....)....

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 30, 2020, 06:45:43 AM
They know what fixes it this is old news.  Israel has already shipped supplies last week and Bayer etc are all ramping production.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-fda-anti-malaria-drugs-emergency/story?id=69867398

I bet the only reason they waited as they didn't want it to go the way of toilet paper.  CDC has had it for treatment for weeks.

"In a statement released Sunday night, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced it had received 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and one million doses of hloroquine phosphate donated to a national stockpile of potentially life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, which are oral prescription drugs used primarily to prevent and treat malaria, are both being investigated as potential therapeutics for COVID-19."

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on March 30, 2020, 07:24:30 AM
If anti-malarials work, is quinine effective?  I'm willing to religiously drink gin and tonics if that's what's necessary for good health.  :P
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 30, 2020, 07:53:56 AM
If anti-malarials work, is quinine effective?  I'm willing to religiously drink gin and tonics if that's what's necessary for good health.  :P

That should work.  Don't forget what Thomas Jefferson said:  ďBeer, if drunk in moderation, softens the temper, cheers the spirit and promotes health.Ē  I am sure gin works the same for health.

Just don't use chloroquine phosphate.  Sometimes stupid should hurt.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 31, 2020, 06:25:54 AM
More good news.

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/covid-19-me-angela-diffly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&v=hQV4YcaILDA

Make sure people know about it.  FDA approved it for "off label" use Sunday night when the supplies from Israel came in.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on March 31, 2020, 07:26:58 AM
https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/pandemic-scientist-says-his-team-has-discovered-a-potential-cure-for-covid-19-coronavirus-california/509-4a895be1-80f6-46b0-8812-e2d49d20bebf
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: SaucyAussie on March 31, 2020, 07:34:44 AM
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.

But what if that doesn't happen? (if didn't).  What if the market never drops below 20k again?  Do you have a plan B?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Joe Schmo on April 01, 2020, 04:23:04 PM
Itís over.
Trump just announced in his press conference that heís #1 on Facebook so...market will stop dropping.


Bottom is in.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on April 04, 2020, 11:28:43 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.
The DJIA closed at 21,052 on Friday, Apr. 3rd, down just under 584 points for the week. Compared to the past few weeks this was a relatively stable week. It appears as if the bulls and bears are in a tug of war trying to decide if the $2.2 trillion in spending is enough to get in front of the economic damage to come.

I am curious to watch the coming week unfold and see how the market reacts.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 04, 2020, 12:39:40 PM
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.


This X 1000. The bottom comes when things look their worst when the maximum number of people have panicked and there's no where to go.

March 2009 did not seem like the tide had turned at all.

This is true. Weíre not There yet. Maybe 2nd inning
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Jack0Life on April 04, 2020, 12:48:41 PM
People can call it market timing all they want. For me its smart investing.
We had preludes of what was to come seeing what was happening in China and if you wanted to stand pact, that's fine. I decided to get out so I guess I'm a classic market timer.

Well . . . yeah.  When you time your moves in the market based on gut instinct, that's the definition of market timing.

Not saying that you're wrong.  My gut tells me the same thing that yours does.  But the 'smart investing' part of me realizes that if I get out, I need to know the right time to get back in . . . and that people are notoriously terrible at figuring that out.

I totally agree. I have no clue when the bottom is either. I've been predicting Dow 15k and I'm sticking to it but it doesn't necessarily mean I will wait till Dow 15k to get back in.
I said I would move back in stages and I have. I did one at 18,500 after last Monday and got rewarded for it. But being the pessimist that I am, I moved everything back out after I got a decent gain from last week.
Its gonna get worst, I'm betting on it(literally).
I mean, look at the shamble our economy is in. Everything is closed down, unemployment is off the chart. If the market can keep rising in these environments then I'm a fool.
I'm lucky that I'm way ahead in the game as I got out near the top. If I'm wrong, I can jump back in anytime and still be ahead.

PS. I feel like a huge drop on Monday. Dow future is already down.

But what if that doesn't happen? (if didn't).  What if the market never drops below 20k again?  Do you have a plan B?

I pulled out really early so I have more room to be wrong than most people.
I reallocate about $200k @Dow 29400 and the rest $100k @Dow 26700.
As long as I get them back in anytime before Dow 26700, I'll still be way ahead.
Seeing how the market been performing the last 2-3 weeks, the big swings aren't happening much anymore. I did put back about $25k back in VTSAX for good @ Dow 21000.
I will admit I'm being greedy but not too greedy. I can just put everything back @ Dow 21000 right now and I'm way way ahead but I still feel like it will drop below 20k. Lets see how the next 2-3 weeks will played out.
Theres no way the Dow will get back to 26700 anytime soon
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 05, 2020, 08:46:33 PM
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on April 06, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.

I checked and the trailing PE for the SP 500 is 19.88.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Based on the risk environment weíre looking at? Really?  They can keep it. Iíll go international or cash, thank you very much.

 They can flipping keep it.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 06, 2020, 02:37:19 PM
The fact that we were/are starting this process with sky-high valuations for stocks, bonds, and housing makes me less concerned about missing the eventual bottom. A trailing S&P 500 PE ratio of 18 is a bit rich for an economy that was struggling to hit 2% growth pre-crisis and has entered the early stages of unprecedented unemployment, worker disability, bond and consumer debt defaults, small business closings, collapse of entire industries (oil, hospitality, travel, tourism, and malls in the first wave), deflation, and who knows what when it comes to the banking system.

If the trailing PE right now was 10 or 12 - common S&P PE's in the past - I would be nervous about a reversion to the mean around 15-16 someday. If this turns out to be the bottom at a trailing PE over 18 and a forward PE of a very large number, I'll shrug my shoulders, hold a bond portfolio, and watch for the next correction. Circumstances justify bargain prices for stocks, and we're not there yet.

We are now finding out what those forecasters meant over the past couple of years when they said we should expect stocks to return just 4% over the next decade, just based on valuation. People mocked them too. But people always say valuation doesn't matter near a top.

I checked and the trailing PE for the SP 500 is 19.88.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Based on the risk environment weíre looking at? Really?  They can keep it. Iíll go international or cash, thank you very much.

 They can flipping keep it.

What a difference a day makes. I was too busy or I might have doubled down on my long puts today.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on April 10, 2020, 12:35:56 PM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.
The DJIA closed at 21,052 on Friday, Apr. 3rd, down just under 584 points for the week. Compared to the past few weeks this was a relatively stable week. It appears as if the bulls and bears are in a tug of war trying to decide if the $2.2 trillion in spending is enough to get in front of the economic damage to come.

I am curious to watch the coming week unfold and see how the market reacts.

The market closed the week of Apr. 10th at 23,719, up 2667 points for the week. It appears as if the market has decided that $2,200,000,000,000 with this week's promise of loans of $2,300,000,000,000 is indeed enough to beat COVID-19.

I am not so sanguine.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on April 10, 2020, 07:14:51 PM
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), exactly one fortnight later.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on April 11, 2020, 12:55:29 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: UnleashHell on April 11, 2020, 02:26:44 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .

he may be too busy educating himself.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: retireby50 on April 11, 2020, 02:33:59 PM
This thread should be pinned for historical and learning purposes. It's fascinating to read thru it while correlating comment dates to market levels and COVID spread. What I have learned (again) 1. Don't time the markets 2. Listen to experts when I don't understand an issue like the spread of a novel coronavirus.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Telecaster on April 11, 2020, 02:52:58 PM
Read an article today 're potential death toll in usa due to lack of suffice my lockdown...

The academic expert that wrote it quoted up to 480000 deaths in USA as a worse case scenario.

The USA is about to get creamed by covid. Alot of people will die over the next 2 months.

Bottom is not in

Baz
I think the bottom was on Monday.  Still some good deals out there, but no longer 35% off.  More like 20% off.  Once Trump said he wanted to re-open the country by Easter, that's when the bottom hit, and we've been on a 3 day bull run since.  Markets want certainty and that's what Trump did.

They do love certainty.   By Easter there will be 2,000 deaths/day and we'll be short thousands of hospital beds.  That goal is dumb as rocks.

It is Easter Sunday.  Yesterday there were 2,108 deaths.   Now the hope is May 1, yet there is no plan of what to do.   There is still no widespread ability to do testing, or even enough ability to test medical providers.   The drive through testing at Wal-mart and CVS didn't happen (well, unless you count seven locations that aren't open to the public as a success).   Many health officials are saying even May 1 will be too soon, given the lack of planning. 

If I wanted to crater the economy, I'd do exactly what Trump is doing:  Make plans and statements based on wishful thinking instead of facts and science. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on April 12, 2020, 03:07:45 AM
you gotta admit though, of all the polictiations, Trump has been the best in recent decades of distracting the public on a day to day basis from the real facts, and keeps the public and media in a looping cycle of arguements (distraction is 9/10s of the law?).  Worse still, alot just follow what he says blindly....its funny to watch from across the atlantic, kinda like a reality TV president?.

Infection and death will continue through the poulation in pulses and spikes, until there is a vaccine or mass/herd immunity.

it suits me to have an economic distaster since I am in the stock accumulation phase, so I dont need to suffer from a hopeful optimistic bias to 'stay positive'.  I try to view the larger important economies with increasing large unemployment, decreased consumption, decreased revenue intake, defaults, coporate debt issues, increased bail outs, potentially inflation in the long term.....not only in the USA

Still trying to study all of this as a hobby.  But as i said, a cheaper market may be fine for me, but its not for those struggling to buy food and pay bills. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 12, 2020, 08:38:37 PM
you gotta admit though, of all the polictiations, Trump has been the best in recent decades of distracting the public on a day to day basis from the real facts, and keeps the public and media in a looping cycle of arguements (distraction is 9/10s of the law?).  Worse still, alot just follow what he says blindly....its funny to watch from across the atlantic, kinda like a reality TV president?.


It's not that Trump is particularly adept at being a politician, it's that 49% of us became the type of people who respond positively to such a person. Was it the thousands of hours we spent in the mid-2000's staring at the fakeness of obviously scripted "reality" television - knowing we were being lied to but not caring? Is there some pollutant causing mass stupidity, like lead pipes did for the Romans near the end of their empire? Or were we living lives of careless luxury, where our main problem is being bored by the humble competency our political leaders? Did Facebook jade us to such an extent that we just want to watch the world burn?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 13, 2020, 01:27:15 PM
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), exactly one fortnight later.

You win not by a very good margin but you win!  So now how many of those people would have died anyway?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-impaired-immunity-gene-higher-covid-.html

Maybe to help you as the news doesn't have the answers.

http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200412-Daily-Aggregate-COVID19.pdf

Hypertension and diabetes doesn't do well for you....


Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: VaCPA on April 13, 2020, 02:40:51 PM
Why do you think I told them to turn off the news?  Do you have proof there will be an extra 2000 deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US or is just the media telling you that?

And here we are (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), exactly one fortnight later.

You win not by a very good margin but you win!  So now how many of those people would have died anyway?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-impaired-immunity-gene-higher-covid-.html

Maybe to help you as the news doesn't have the answers.

http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200412-Daily-Aggregate-COVID19.pdf

Hypertension and diabetes doesn't do well for you....
Not the greatest concession speech I've ever seen
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 13, 2020, 03:19:38 PM
Educate yourself instead of listening to our media.

How precisely should I educate myself if not by reading the publications that are coming out of institutions such as Imperial College (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London)?

First why would you use Italy as an example for you 2000 deaths per day in the US and not South Korea?  Is it because Italian numbers can make a bigger headline or something else?

Looks like you were completely wrong on all points weinerdog.  I'd think some apologies are in order . . .

Why would I apologize for being wrong?  I didn't take the bet that they wanted because I wouldn't put money on that type of thing.  I admitted they were right for one day we had 2035 deaths.  The day before 1901 and the day after was 1830.  Hardly good margin for a bet if you bet on things like that.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on April 13, 2020, 03:43:31 PM
I'm often an ass and often wrong.

What I've learned is that you can usually get away with being an ass when you're right.  You can usually get away with being wrong if you're polite.  But when you're both an ass and wrong it's usually time for an apology.  YMMV though.  :P
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 13, 2020, 04:41:14 PM
I'm often an ass and often wrong.

What I've learned is that you can usually get away with being an ass when you're right.  You can usually get away with being wrong if you're polite.  But when you're both an ass and wrong it's usually time for an apology.  YMMV though.  :P

I don't think you understand as you said I was wrong on every point.  They wanted to bet $40 on 2000 deaths a day.  I am not betting on something like that even though I thought I was right which I admitted I was wrong.  If you followed the conversation you would know 2035 > 2000 because math so I was wrong.  I would be more worried about someone openly wanting to bet on something like that than someone you perceive as an ass on the internet but I guess you get different mileage than me.  I would never think anyone is an ass until I met them in person then I can make judgement.

Deaths 101
 Hospitalized 94 93.07
 ICU 67 66.34
 Intubated 63 62.38
 Underlying Medical Condition 57 56.44
 Hypertension 31 --
 Immunocompromised 3 --
 Chronic Heart Disease 14 --
 Chronic Liver Disease 1 --
 Chronic Kidney Disease 14 --
 Diabetes 26 --
 Neurologic/Neurodevelopmental 0 --
 Chronic Lung Disease 17 --
 None 7 --
 Other 27 --

Your odds aren't good if you have underlying medical conditions.  Obesity is a major factor and the diseases that go along with it.  Around here 11 would die in one day and 4 in another in nursing homes.  Those were the only deaths on those days.  When you're in a nursing home you don't have much longer to live anyway.  It is a fact of life.  Some of this comes down to saying the skydiver jumped out of the plane with no parachute but coronavirus killed him because they tested positive.  Old age is going to kill you and you don't have a choice.  Being overweight and the complications that come with it (Diabetes, high blood pressure etc) is curable if you want to.

57% of the people in Southern Nevada had underlying medical conditions that died yesterday.  Not many places report it like it is.   The whole point started with me saying there are plenty of other things that will kill you and I am surprised they aren't talked about.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on April 13, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 13, 2020, 05:34:44 PM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on April 14, 2020, 09:22:57 AM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them". 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Davnasty on April 14, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on April 14, 2020, 11:49:53 AM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.
These will be pretty well documented as well and it will become clear where COVID-19 has had an impact increasing mortality.  I'm not so sure that suicide rates will go up.  I don't think it's unlikely either, but it seems like guesswork, this early on.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Telecaster on April 17, 2020, 10:36:36 AM
You did mention type of death, but I want to reiterate the importance of taking this into account. Looking at normal death rates vs lockdown death rates will have lots of confounding factors. Deaths from vehicle accidents are down. Murder rates are down. Suicide rates will likely increase. These are some of the more significant changes but I'm sure there are many more.

I understand your point, but the main causes of death in the United State, by far, are heart attacks and cancer.   Motor vehicle deaths are about 40,000/year.  Maybe 15-20,000 murders/year.  We've had 30,000 COVID deaths in two months.  Even if car accidents and murders are way down, those numbers are being swamped out by the COVID cases. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on April 17, 2020, 11:50:23 AM
We've had 30,000 COVID deaths in two months.

And that's with extensive social distancing and a third of the economy shutdown. Also, we are no where close to herd immunity.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: redpoint5 on April 17, 2020, 12:18:00 PM
Scott Adams mentioned a better metric might be the change in life expectancy. If people were going to die anyhow, then Coronavirus wouldn't affect that much. On the other hand, if life expectancy decreases, it tends to indicate Coronavirus is greatly impacting health (life expectancy being a proxy for overall health). Of course, life expectancy figures are probably slow to be updated, so it might not be a good indicator for the market.

I wonder if we're seeing a dead cat bounce, or if the market had already priced in how difficult this is going to be long term. I expect 2nd and 3rd waves of shelter in place orders, and a fairly steady increase in deaths as more people become exposed. There's even talk of multiple strains that may cause 2nd waves of infection. Can we expect some seasonal factors to play into market pricing? Perhaps we'll see a rise as summer reduces the velocity of spread and people go back to work, and a drop in the fall as the velocity of spread increases and shelter in place orders are given?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 17, 2020, 12:46:02 PM
thd7t - Here's one source which I selected owing to the .gov extension and being a medical study.  There is a correlation between unemployment and death rates.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/
Unemployment and Early Cause-Specific Mortality
"Unemployment was associated with an increased risk of suicide and death from undetermined causes."

redpoint5 - Life expectancy is measured rather slowly, as shown recently by overall U.S. life expectancy declining 2-3 years during the opioid epidemic.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: thd7t on April 17, 2020, 01:38:15 PM
thd7t - Here's one source which I selected owing to the .gov extension and being a medical study.  There is a correlation between unemployment and death rates.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/
Unemployment and Early Cause-Specific Mortality
"Unemployment was associated with an increased risk of suicide and death from undetermined causes."

redpoint5 - Life expectancy is measured rather slowly, as shown recently by overall U.S. life expectancy declining 2-3 years during the opioid epidemic.
Thanks for a useful response!  I'm still hesitant to say that this is like other times with high unemployment, but this is valuable data.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 24, 2020, 06:49:17 AM
So they had underlying medical conditions for years, get COVID 19, die and POOF! It was the underlying medical conditions that killed them, en masse?

I knew we couldn't trust the Chinese statistics. Keep it up and we won't be able to trust our own.

I don't think you read the pdf.  There are 628 of the 2444 cases so far that were hospitalized and didn't die.  Almost 200 of those had underlying medical conditions so POOF you die is not correct even when in the hospital.  Of the 2444 total cases, 374 had underlying conditions and 2070 are unknown probably because the case was mild but confirmed so that number is pretty much bogus.  I would like to see the obesity of the deaths also but I haven't seen those numbers.  I would be willing to say they are high also.  I know the first death here was a large lady.  I believe the death in men being high also is related to the chest size and the difficulty of get in the air in on a heavier chest.

It is no different than Pneumonia in the way that it kills you at an old age.  A healthy person can likely beat it.  If you have underlying conditions your age is high the risk goes way up.  So do you call the death Pneumonia as that is what put the nail in the coffin or do you call it the underlying medical conditions or just old age?  The skydiving example is clear but this, not so much.

You can't trust China and can't trust the WHO as they are owned by China.  Remember when the WHO said there is no human to human spread in Jan or early Feb?
I've argued with you about this before, but this is an instance where kicking the can down the road will give us a real answer.  We have historical death rates generally and by type of death.  In a year, we will have a good sense of how many people died in any given area (the US in this case) during a period and how far over the normal rate that was.  It will give us a good delta between "they were going to die anyway" and "something unusual killed them".

New data from New York shows it is much more widespread than all the stupid models showed that were just guessing.  Now they are at 6 deaths per 1000 infections or just over 0.5%.  94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions.  43% of the deaths were nursing home patients.  Cuomo did exactly what Italy did and kept the virus in the homes but I am not sure why you would expect common sense from Government.

Like I said turn the crap off.  In reality if you're below 60 and in good health the thing will pass right over you.  You might get an ass kicking for a day or two but odds are way on your side.  Don't let the news fool you.  If you are immune compromised (obese and the diseases that go along with it) or over 60 then you better take precautions.

The can will soon come to a stop and the real numbers will be known.  Yes I agree it might be a year and there definitely was an uptick but the media hasn't done it any good either.  They have already changed the first deaths to Feb.  What else will change?  Now the infections started 6 weeks ago.  I am still waiting on an Antibody test because I bet I had in January.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: geekette on April 24, 2020, 05:02:53 PM
I know three people who have had it.  It was not a day or two ass kicking - much worse.  And now Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying from strokes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/)

But whatever - you'll be fine, right?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: PDXTabs on April 24, 2020, 05:16:52 PM
☝️ I was just about to post that. 94% of people who are hospitalized in NY had some pre-existing condition that complicated things. But that's a lot of people, and I didn't choose to be asthmatic. Likewise type 1 diabetics never chose for their body to destroy their own pancreas. That doesn't even account for the 6% of totally healthy people that are still being admitted to hospital.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Davnasty on April 24, 2020, 05:48:50 PM
94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions. 

"According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition."

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

I don't know if there is a consistent definition of underlying/pre-existing conditions, but in any case we can't dismiss these deaths simply because the individuals had some other condition.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 24, 2020, 10:57:55 PM
94% of the deaths in New York had underlying conditions. 

"According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition."

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting

I don't know if there is a consistent definition of underlying/pre-existing conditions, but in any case we can't dismiss these deaths simply because the individuals had some other condition.

And this is why the United States could lose a couple million people from COVID-19. We're almost all obese, eat too much sugar, and inhale the fumes from our millions of cars every day. All that makes for a vulnerable population.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 25, 2020, 01:33:35 AM
The two key insights from the article, for me, were these section titles:
"One in Two Americans Has a Pre-Existing Condition"
"Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition"


@wienerdog - New York's most optimistic model of the outbreak proved correct, allowing them to handle peak patient load without denying people ventilators.  If you instead flood hospitals with patients, people "tire out", from fighting to breathe...  those people, without ventilators, will very likely die.  So take the odds a ventilator saves someone's life, and drop that to 0% to get a realistic death toll if people attempt herd immunity.


It's also very important to pay attention to how studies are conducted.  The studies with the highest estimates of antibodies used the worst methods.  The one in Santa Clara invited people on social media, which means people who couldn't get a test earlier are more likely to volunteer - which inflates the numbers.  Similarly, New York's data was sampled from people who weren't hiding at home, and are more likely to be exposed.  L.A. / CA Dept of Health did a more controlled study where they randomly picked people to test, and their estimate was closer to 4%.  Still much higher than the number of cases, but much lower than other studies estimated.
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Does anyone know of other carefully randomized studies?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Paper Chaser on April 26, 2020, 09:04:29 AM
The two key insights from the article, for me, were these section titles:
"One in Two Americans Has a Pre-Existing Condition"
"Up to 86 Percent of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition"


@wienerdog - New York's most optimistic model of the outbreak proved correct, allowing them to handle peak patient load without denying people ventilators.  If you instead flood hospitals with patients, people "tire out", from fighting to breathe...  those people, without ventilators, will very likely die.  So take the odds a ventilator saves someone's life, and drop that to 0% to get a realistic death toll if people attempt herd immunity.

Chances of a ventilator saving you seem really low. They discuss ventilators a bit in the same study that wienerdog is referencing. Here's the article with the 94% chronic condition findings:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html

Of the 5700 hospitalized people in the test sample, 1151 patients (About 20% of those hospitalized) needed a ventilator. Of those 1151, only 38 had recovered and been discharged. 282 had died and the remaining 831 were still on ventilators when the findings were released. But that's an 88% mortality rate for those cases where a ventilator was no longer needed due to recovery or death. Ventilators may not be the lifesavers that many people think. And if you're bad enough to need one, it's not looking good.

Basically, if you're on a ventilator, your odds of making it aren't good. They're not the savior that they've been made out to be.

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 28, 2020, 10:53:25 AM
Yes, I agree ventilators save fewer lives than expected - or at least, than I expected.

(at least 80%, according to the article) "80% of NYC's coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them"
"We know that mechanical ventilation is not benign"
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4


I would also say there's more to COVID-19 than ventilators, and expand on my disagreement with arguments for herd immunity.  Dividing total U.S. deaths by total U.S. confirmed cases, I get 5.6%.  If ventilators help some, maybe it's 7% without ventilators.  There's a lot of unknowns, but it seems clear the death toll would go much higher if herd immunity is attempted.

If we're looking for a market bottom, maybe careful reopening with testing can work while waiting for vaccine research to come through.  Vaccines have typically had too few cases to work with, and didn't target a global pandemic - this is different.  Maybe there's enough resources committed to finding a vaccine (plus related experience).

There's also the possibility that all the people defaulting on rent payments and mortgages needs to be sorted out, and maybe ends up in another cycle of problems.  The discovery of a vaccine may look like a recovery, but reopening the economy might prove harder than expected.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on April 28, 2020, 11:54:53 AM
If we're looking for a market bottom, maybe careful reopening with testing can work while waiting for vaccine research to come through.  Vaccines have typically had too few cases to work with, and didn't target a global pandemic - this is different.  Maybe there's enough resources committed to finding a vaccine (plus related experience).

There's also the possibility that all the people defaulting on rent payments and mortgages needs to be sorted out, and maybe ends up in another cycle of problems.  The discovery of a vaccine may look like a recovery, but reopening the economy might prove harder than expected.

It looks like the US is full steaming ahead to an opening regardless of consequences.  It makes me concerned that there will be a rough ride ahead as the inevitable transmission leads to a new explosion of cases in different areas of the country.

At this point, a vaccine looks more and more like a pipe dream.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on April 28, 2020, 02:29:33 PM
Just to that point, Denmark is reopening right now - including schools.  Elementary school children running around, touching other's faces - let alone their own.  And yet despite schools opening in Denmark last Monday... there's no outbreak.  Week over week cases are still dropping.

The U.S. has far more cases per day, and the number of cases is much closer to the U.S. testing capacity than Denmark's.  So while Denmark looks like an optimistic story for reopening, they also have greater ability to do contact tracing.  The U.S. is not increasing testing exponentially anymore, and has slowly climbed to 200k tests/day.


I disagree with pessimism over a vaccine - and I originally said in past outbreaks, a vaccine was never found during the outbreak.  I originally agreed with estimates of 1-2 years for the possibility of finding a vaccine.  The problem is we haven't had a worldwide pandemic with modern technology for finding vaccines.  There's dozens of efforts and dozens of drugs being tested now.

I got tired of drug company CEOs touting their own products, and pumping up their own stock price or private investment.  I started to have that opinion about a professor from Oxford... but the more I read, the more it looked like she could be the real deal.  She has a vested interest as a co-founder, but has actually been working on a vaccine for MERS (another corona virus).  By swapping out the identifying proteins, she can target Sars-Cov-2 instead of MERS, and perhaps have equal progress.  The combination of a novel technique and related virus seems to make the chances stronger - helped along by it being an Oxford professor, rather than just another drug company executive.

So overall I'd lean towards optimism, and a market that doesn't keep going down.... but I have no idea how all the skipped rent payments and lack of economic activity plays out.  Does a business open up slowly because it has no customers?  And then customers are only slowly going back to work, so economic activity picks up slowly?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: American GenX on April 28, 2020, 07:35:45 PM
I don't trust the results from those antibody tests at this point.  Too many false positives.

There are some much earlier estimates on public availability of a vaccine than the 1 to 2 year time frame stated in this thread.

I've read that putting ventilated patients on their stomachs part of the time improves their chances.  They're still learning.

Not all states are opening full throttle.  My state is about to begin a mandatory mask policy in public where social distancing isn't possible, such as in stores.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 28, 2020, 08:59:26 PM
A glimpse at our future:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21228512/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-moro (https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21228512/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-moro)

Spoiler alert:
Spoiler: show
Millions Die.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on April 29, 2020, 01:11:08 AM
Has the market stopped dropping yet?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: UnleashHell on April 29, 2020, 05:01:03 AM
Has the market stopped dropping yet?

what market?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 30, 2020, 03:12:08 PM

At this point, a vaccine looks more and more like a pipe dream.

Lol since they have been trying since the 70s I think you might be correct.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 30, 2020, 03:29:41 PM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.

A little more numbers to chew on:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_23_april_2020.pdf

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on April 30, 2020, 03:32:52 PM
Has the market stopped dropping yet?

Once the new top is in that will signal the market has stopped its drop.  Now the million dollar question is when will King Thorstach give us the hint.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: geekette on May 01, 2020, 09:30:50 AM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on May 01, 2020, 03:07:02 PM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Davnasty on May 01, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?

Interestingly, our odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident are not evenly distributed among the population either. Those who drink and drive, ride a motorcycle, spend more time driving, or are just bad drivers all pull the average up.

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on May 01, 2020, 08:17:31 PM

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: geekette on May 01, 2020, 09:34:41 PM

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?

And just how many people have died from one of the 100+ variants of the 4 common cold coronaviruses? 

From what I've read, there are vaccines for SARS and MERS, although SARS hasn't been seen for over a decade and MERS hasn't made it very far.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Davnasty on May 01, 2020, 09:42:03 PM

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?


LOL.  You do realize you live with 4 Coronviruses already?  This one could very well likely be with you for the rest of your life.  So far they are batting 4 / 6.  Are you sure this won't be 5 / 7?

I think that's quite likely. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything?

Comparing something that has a tiny chance of happening each time you get in a car adding up to ~1%* chance spread out over a lifetime to a one time (hopefully) event just doesn't make sense. If immunity doesn't last and we can get the virus multiple times, then the odds of dying of Covid-19 would actually go up. I think this may be the opposite of the point you're trying to make.

*Probably much less for reasons I mentioned above.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: harvestbook on May 03, 2020, 06:50:23 AM
This thread is fascinating for how often everyone is wrong. (For the record, I still expect a 50-60 percent market drop but I sure look dumb right now. I didn't sell but I've been holding new cash since then.)

And also in retrospect you can easily tell which posters watch Fox News.

Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 03, 2020, 08:06:31 AM
Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.

We watch our provincial COVID-19 briefings daily and it's interesting that they provide numbers of new cases and new deaths.....which are tragic don't me wrong, but if they provided totals of deaths that day from other causes like driving, cancer, regular flu, etc... the number of COVID-19 deaths would be a drop in the bucket. That's not to say we should take no action or that it's not serious, but to your point of a deaths/day stat being becoming normal you need to look at it in context of the other deaths that day.

ETA: in BC where I live an annual flu season sees ~475 deaths. So far we are at 112 COVID-19 deaths. Most of which are care home deaths of seniors.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on May 03, 2020, 10:47:07 PM
Also fascinating how fast 2,000 dead and 30,000 new cases daily becomes just another day.

We watch our provincial COVID-19 briefings daily and it's interesting that they provide numbers of new cases and new deaths.....which are tragic don't me wrong, but if they provided totals of deaths that day from other causes like driving, cancer, regular flu, etc... the number of COVID-19 deaths would be a drop in the bucket. That's not to say we should take no action or that it's not serious, but to your point of a deaths/day stat being becoming normal you need to look at it in context of the other deaths that day.

ETA: in BC where I live an annual flu season sees ~475 deaths. So far we are at 112 COVID-19 deaths. Most of which are care home deaths of seniors.

Well itís the leading cause of death in the US in recent days so you have something to look forward to if you donít take it seriously
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bigblock440 on May 04, 2020, 07:46:20 AM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest.  Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.
No, I'm not below 60.  I'm not living in fear, but I'm also not stupid.

Well then if you understand the numbers you're clearly in another class.  Nobody said anything about stupidity.  Our state isn't letting anyone 65 and over out of the house.  In reality if you're under 60 you are more likely to die in a car crash at just over 1%.  Humans always tend to focus on a plane crash or a new virus but there are many other things that will kill you first.  Be smart, take care of yourself and this will pass just as all the rest of the crap has.

You're comparing the lifetime odds of dying in a vehicle accident to the odds of dying from a virus over a matter of weeks?

Interestingly, our odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident are not evenly distributed among the population either. Those who drink and drive, ride a motorcycle, spend more time driving, or are just bad drivers all pull the average up.

You don't have a 1% chance of dying of the coronavirus over then next few weeks unless you already have it.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 04, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
There is a difference between a risk of death that is increasing at a rapid pace and a risk of death that is relatively fixed.

My odds of dying from colon cancer are relatively stable. This monthís odds are about the same as next monthís. My odds of dying from C19 are increasing each day as more people around me are infected and my chances of being infected rise. The much-mentioned ďcurveĒ of the pandemic also means if I am infected and have severe symptoms there will be insufficient medical care available for me. In addition to all that, as more and more people are infected, the odds increase that C19 will evolve into something worse. With a little foresight, I can anticipate a near future in which, say, 25% of the people around me are active carriers and there is no ambulance, bed, oxygen, ventilator, medicine, or medical professionals available to treat me if I need it.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 04, 2020, 11:47:24 AM
In addition to all that, as more and more people are infected, the odds increase that C19 will evolve into something worse.

It works the other way. Viruses tend to evolve into milder forms because more deadly versions lead to dead ends since the hosts don't live as long as can't transmit them as well. So your odds get better with C19 in each successive mutation.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: maisymouser on May 05, 2020, 04:46:57 PM
But whatever - you'll be fine, right?

Fear can be just as bad for your body but you choose how you want to live.  I'll tell you one thing it isn't going away so if you want to live the rest of your life that way be my guest. Are you below 60?  Then you shouldn't be living in fear.

A little more numbers to chew on:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_23_april_2020.pdf

This seems like an obtuse way to put it. I'm 28 but I have a couple of chronic health conditions, for one. Number two- I am concerned for healthy young adults about long-lasting side effects from getting this virus that we are only beginning to start to understand. Number three- most importantly- I care about those I know who are over 60. I'm afraid for them.

It's not wrecking my life and I'm not experiencing higher blood pressure to my knowledge from the fear, but it's pretty realistic to be living in some fear at this point.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: wienerdog on May 06, 2020, 07:01:27 AM
For all you living in fear your great leader of the all encompassing Imperial Model is nothing more than a "Do as I say not as I do person".  Must of not believed in his own model or he doesn't care about others.

Do your own homework.  Don't listen to these tools.  It sure is odd Mr Ferguson behaves the same as the Illinois or Indiana governor when he is an "expert" on the subject.

More and more numbers show if you're over 60 (really moving towards 70 now) you should have real concerns.  The easiest way to beat this is to focus on your health and to stay smart. Turn the crap off and don't live in fear. Disease doesn't last long in a healthy body.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 06, 2020, 09:25:53 AM
And just how many people have died from one of the 100+ variants of the 4 common cold coronaviruses? 

From what I've read, there are vaccines for SARS and MERS, although SARS hasn't been seen for over a decade and MERS hasn't made it very far.
I think Polio ended with a vaccine, after many years of outbreaks.  But that's not the case for the two corona virus you mentioned, according to the sources I checked:

"No vaccine or specific treatment for MERS is currently available"
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov)

"No vaccine for SARS ..."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/covid-questions-vaccine-1.5555432


Well itís the leading cause of death in the US in recent days so you have something to look forward to if you donít take it seriously
That's the most hilarious, succinct thing I've seen here for awhile.  :)  Thanks for that.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: frugaldrummer on May 15, 2020, 05:31:04 PM
Just a point for those who are waiting for a vaccine - there are a TON of potential potholes between here and an available safe vaccine:

(And Iím pro vaccines, this is not an anti-vaxxer stance)

 CoVID is caused by a coronavirus. These are what are called positive sense single strand RNA viruses (+ssRNA). We have not brought a coronavirus vaccine for humans to completion before. And we havenít been very successful with vaccines against other +ssRNA viruses that are not coronaviruses (cousins to the coronaviruses, letís say). The obstacles that we have encountered in making vaccines against those ďcousinsĒ may well turn out to apply to CoVID too.

1)RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) - leading pneumonia killer of infants. We have been trying to make a successful vaccine for 50 years. We thought we had one 30 years ago but it caused immune enhancement - a condition where you get the vaccine, then when you get the virus you actually get SICKER than if you had no vaccine.

2) Dengue Fever - usually the second time you get dengue fever you get WAY sicker than the first. A while back we came up with a dengue vaccine and it was used extensively in the Philippines. Unfortunately, immune enhancement was also a problem with this vaccine and people who had never had dengue, had the vaccine, and then got dengue, got very ill as if it was their second case of dengue, not first. That vaccine is now only approved for people who have already had dengue once.

3) SARS - the same problem cropped up during attempts to make a SARS vaccine .

4) FIPV - a coronavirus of cats, attempts to make this vaccine were slowed by problems with either not generating immunity, or immune enhancement that led to death.

So researchers will have to overcome this big obstacle in order to have a safe CoVID vaccine.

Also - some of the most promising approaches for rapid development and production of a CoVID  vaccine lie in RNA and DNA vaccine technology. We donít really have much experience with getting these vaccines to work in humans.

Then - assuming EVERYTHING goes right, they manage to skirt immune enhancement problems, and can manufacture boatloads if vaccine - imagine the logistical problems of vaccinating the entire country/world? Shortages of needles and syringes are already being predicted.

Then one final problem - cold-type coronaviruses only generate immunity that lasts just a year or two. A CoVID vaccine may need to be repeated every year or two. And the mutation rate of this virus appears to be higher than first thought, so it may need to be changed yearly like flu vaccine.

Given all these technical problems, Iím not holding my breath (have you noticed we donít have an AIDS vaccine yet?). I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 15, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.

I hadn't heard about the vitamin D thing.  Dosage? 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: frugaldrummer on May 15, 2020, 07:51:32 PM
Early data from the Philippines and elsewhere suggests that people with mild cases mostly have normal vitamin D levels, and people with the most severe CoVID disease almost all are deficient. Of course correlation is not causation but we know lots about the effects of vitamin D on the immune system. If you know youíre deficient or are likely to be deficient (northern latitude or little time outdoors without sunscreen) many would recommend 5,000 IU/d . Big experts in the field want to make 2,000 iu/d the new RDA. No reported toxicity on less than   10,000 IU/day for a year. Might be further benefits though to getting D from the sun. Time depends on latitude and season and time of day and amount of pigment in your skin. Iím green eyed with freckles and live in San Diego - 5-10 minutes midday 3 days a week without sunscreen is enough for me. My African American friend would need 30-40 minutes to make the same amount of D.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 16, 2020, 10:09:58 AM
Early data from the Philippines and elsewhere suggests that people with mild cases mostly have normal vitamin D levels, and people with the most severe CoVID disease almost all are deficient. Of course correlation is not causation but we know lots about the effects of vitamin D on the immune system. If you know youíre deficient or are likely to be deficient (northern latitude or little time outdoors without sunscreen) many would recommend 5,000 IU/d . Big experts in the field want to make 2,000 iu/d the new RDA. No reported toxicity on less than   10,000 IU/day for a year. Might be further benefits though to getting D from the sun. Time depends on latitude and season and time of day and amount of pigment in your skin. Iím green eyed with freckles and live in San Diego - 5-10 minutes midday 3 days a week without sunscreen is enough for me. My African American friend would need 30-40 minutes to make the same amount of D.

Thanks for the info.  I'm D deficient in spite of being outside a lot, so I already take 5000 I/U a day. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 20, 2020, 10:35:53 AM
Then one final problem - cold-type coronaviruses only generate immunity that lasts just a year or two. A CoVID vaccine may need to be repeated every year or two. And the mutation rate of this virus appears to be higher than first thought, so it may need to be changed yearly like flu vaccine.
I wish I was reading the same sources of information as you!  Sounds interesting and informative.  From what I've read, the mutation rate for SARS-CoV-2 is lower than other viruses, but you're saying that has changed.  I'd be curious where I can read about it (I failed in my Google searches, even after adding Lancet/NEJM/JAMA to the end).

Given all these technical problems, Iím not holding my breath (have you noticed we donít have an AIDS vaccine yet?). I think we are much more likely to come up with preventive and outpatient treatment regimens that will make this pandemic more manageable and that will be the thing that helps. Based on recent data, just getting everybodyís vitamin D levels into the normal range might cut way down on severity of disease.
That would definitely be the weirdest end to the crisis that nobody imagined:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202005/research-suggests-link-between-vitamin-d-deficiency-and-covid-19-deaths
"When accounting for the effects of age, sex, and comorbidity, vitamin D status is strongly related to COVID-19 mortality."

One nit pick on an AIDS vaccine - normally vaccines are costly... but for a company that profits off AIDS treatment drugs, it could be doubly costly.  I'm guessing most drug companies are happy with the status quo, where AIDS patients have normal life expectancy, but must take various medications for the rest of their lives.
https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/21/58/fda-approved-hiv-medicines
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on May 20, 2020, 06:46:52 PM
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 22, 2020, 05:06:42 PM
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows? 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on May 22, 2020, 06:31:41 PM
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows?

So, it could go up more, then go back down again? Or maybe it could go up, then go up some more?

I think it could also fluctuate. Always a good chance of that.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: v8rx7guy on May 22, 2020, 06:52:06 PM
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 23, 2020, 11:30:39 AM
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows?

So, it could go up more, then go back down again? Or maybe it could go up, then go up some more?

I think it could also fluctuate. Always a good chance of that.

It could also go waaaaay up.  And it could go waaaaaay down.  And the chance it will fluctuate is about 100%. 
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 23, 2020, 11:35:08 AM
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.

Timing seems to be a sin in these parts, but I'm the first to admit being a timer.  More from the perspective of "I think prices for US stocks are way too high and offer too little potential return so I'm not interested at this time" version of timing. I also admit to cursing, not always composting my vegetable scraps, letting the shower run too long, and tearing the tags off of mattresses.   
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on May 23, 2020, 02:06:14 PM
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.

Timing seems to be a sin in these parts, but I'm the first to admit being a timer.  More from the perspective of "I think prices for US stocks are way too high and offer too little potential return so I'm not interested at this time" version of timing. I also admit to cursing, not always composting my vegetable scraps, letting the shower run too long, and tearing the tags off of mattresses.   

Eventually you'll be right.  The question is always one of how much money you win or lose waiting for the prediction to come true.  History seems to favour people who just keep money in the market.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: waltworks on May 23, 2020, 02:44:08 PM
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on May 23, 2020, 02:59:09 PM
Rebalancing is kinda the opposite of timing.  You decided long ago to sell/buy to hold a particular mix of stock.  It's really market prediction agnostic, so not timing.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on May 24, 2020, 09:41:35 AM
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W

Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 24, 2020, 09:46:36 AM
Rebalancing is kinda the opposite of timing.  You decided long ago to sell/buy to hold a particular mix of stock.  It's really market prediction agnostic, so not timing.

Yup. I'm buying international equities when I add $$ to my investments as well. They are below my US & CDN equities in terms of my AA so they get my $$. At some point I'll buy US equities again when they are the below my planned AA.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on May 24, 2020, 09:49:01 AM
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W

Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     

Again, eventually you'll be right.  Historically people aren't very good at capitalizing on the times they're right though, and end up missing out on a lot of the gains.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: waltworks on May 24, 2020, 10:15:45 AM
Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     

I think if I was truly market timing I'd be selling US equities, though, right? I mean, I agree that they're overvalued. But I've thought that for at least the last 5 years and maybe longer. I'm glad I didn't stop buying them in the past, so maybe I'm making a mistake now.

That said, I'm trying to be around 60/40 US/Int'l and it's gotten all out of whack so just like you I'm buying int'l.

-W
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Stachless on May 27, 2020, 09:34:59 PM
We *should* all agree that the premise of this thread didn't pan out.  100k+ Covid19 deaths in USA and Dow nearing 26k, S&P over 3k.  The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 27, 2020, 09:46:40 PM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.

Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on May 28, 2020, 01:20:57 AM


OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.

Ooh, is this going to be the new https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/550/ ?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: GuitarStv on May 28, 2020, 05:12:15 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.

To be fair, I would have agreed with the assertions of the OP . . . it seemed like a great time to get out of the market.  Worldwide pandemic and massive unemployment certainly make it seem like a rational market would go down.  But the market isn't and never has been rational.  If it was, it would be easy to make zillions as an active trader.

This is a good example of why market timing isn't usually a great idea.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on May 28, 2020, 07:37:13 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.

Please see above post made four days after the market low in March. You can see where I spelled out a course of action depending on your interpretation of events.

Also, a graph without labels on the axis is rather meaningless.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on May 28, 2020, 08:03:24 AM
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.

Please see above post made four days after the market low in March. You can see where I spelled out a course of action depending on your interpretation of events.

Also, a graph without labels on the axis is rather meaningless.

You have a good point. You started this thread with a pretty definite statement, you thought the Dow would decline, so traders should sell. Since then, you havenít made any definitive statements about whether it makes sense for traders to buy back in or not. You said it could go either way, and people should decide for themselves and act accordingly. If you are going to trade actively, youíve got to make a definite decision when to buy back in as well as a definite decision when to sell. Based on what youíve posted here, it seems like you havenít decided to buy back in yet.

The Dow is up over 33% from its low. It seems to me, missing a 33% positive move is pretty bad, if you want to actively trade on short-term market volatility.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bwall on May 28, 2020, 03:16:05 PM
Clearly I'm not perfect. I'll be the first to admit that and I'm sorry if I gave anyone the impression I was infallible.

And, I'm not a professional money manager, or anything of the sort. I can't tell someone how to run their money; when to buy or when to sell. The best I can provide is the decision making tools to let someone make the best decision in their mind. Then they know why they've made the decision--after all, they have to live with the results of their decision, not me.

I was trying to provide guidance about market conditions and I think I did OK. You are welcome to your own opinion about that--no need to discuss opinions here.

But, to touch on the last point you made, in my private actively traded account I just checked and see that to date I have outperformed the S&P 500 by 24% since Jan. 1st, 2020 and the DOW by 29% in the same time period.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: waltworks on May 28, 2020, 03:25:01 PM
Awesome. Get back to us in 20 years. I'll keep buying and ignoring the news.

-W
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on May 28, 2020, 03:59:42 PM

I was trying to provide guidance about market conditions and I think I did OK.

You are welcome to your own opinion about that--no need to discuss opinions here.


No you really did terribly.  I agree with guitarstv that my gut feeling aligned with your instincts.  But Iím not going to provide guidance to anybody based on my gut feeling, which was wrong.

This entire thread is just discussing your opinions.  No need to discuss our own opinions?

And no, massive stimulus isnít the same as covid ďpeaking or perceived to peak.Ē  Itís the exact opposite, as massive stimulus is a reaction to worsening conditions.  And any graph will show it hadnít  peaked yet in march
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 30, 2020, 02:02:36 AM
...
But, to touch on the last point you made, in my private actively traded account I just checked and see that to date I have outperformed the S&P 500 by 24% since Jan. 1st, 2020 and the DOW by 29% in the same time period.
Nobody can verify your after the fact claims of investment performance.  What if I claim I bought stock in Dine Brands (DIN) back near the bottom, and it doubled since then?

But here's my constructive suggestion: instead of doing that, I tracked 3 of my active picks as an experiment, and reported how they've done over time.  On Friday alone, they went from beating the S&P 500 by +7% to losing against it -5% by market close.  Since I told everyone the start of the experiment, anyone can verify the stock prices of DIN / M / DXPE for themselves, and see if I've been accurate.  Why not try that, with some limited part of your portfolio?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: vand on May 31, 2020, 01:55:57 AM
There is the old quote "what feels comfortable is rarely profitable."

This thread has been a perfect reflection of general investor sentiment and doing what is most comfortable rather than what has historically shown to be most profitable as we go through a downswing and upswing cycle, and shows why most people who fancy themselves to have a bit a contrarian streak about them actually fall to pieces like a deer caught in the headlights when the moment comes to to pull the trigger.

The real contrarians are those who don't wait for a bottom - they are happy to unflinchingly dump their money into the market AS it continues to fall, comfortable in the knowledge that there is no way to be able to pick the bottom.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: clarkfan1979 on June 02, 2020, 12:35:36 AM
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.

+1
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: vand on June 02, 2020, 11:50:49 AM
He used to be referred to as the "UK's Warren Buffett" - Anthony Bolton.

I still make it a point to check in on the "quiet assassin" every so often, and it looks like, in stark contrast to Buffett & Munger, he is still as sharp as ever:

https://www.ft.com/content/10cf9ace-10f1-47e1-9fb4-6ccc25ef550a


*puts on Yoda voice:* Learn from such assured wisdom, we must.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Full_Beard on June 02, 2020, 11:18:36 PM
Buffet and Munger aren't sharp anymore? Come on, because they don't agree with your optimism?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 03, 2020, 03:18:18 PM
Itís official! You missed the biggest 50 days in the history of the SP500!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/this-is-the-greatest-50-day-rally-in-the-history-of-the-sp-500.html

When will it stop dropping?
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Stachless on June 03, 2020, 06:09:55 PM
Turns out the OP missed the exact intra-day low by a mere 10 days.

OP, please come to The Top Is In thread and you shall be worshiped as a god!!
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: vand on June 07, 2020, 03:05:27 AM
Buffet and Munger aren't sharp anymore? Come on, because they don't agree with your optimism?

I'm can't say I'm impressed by their recent stewardship of Berkshire.

I think this is a very fair appraisal:

https://alephblog.com/2020/05/12/the-challenge-for-warren-buffett/

Ultimately father time catches up with everyone, and I think the Buffett & Munger understand the world today much less than they did a decade and more ago.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 08, 2020, 09:16:05 AM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on June 08, 2020, 11:44:05 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Aegishjalmur on June 09, 2020, 09:20:12 AM
As of the date this post was started on March 13 the S&P was at 2711.02

The low for the S&P was ten days later on March 23 when it reached 2237.40.


By April 8 it had already returned to 2749.98, which was higher than it had been when the initial post was made. Since then it has remained above that level.

As of right now, 6/9 at 9:04 am MT, it is at 3214.42, so nearly 1,000 points up from the low.

This is why I do not attempt to time the market, it moves too fast for anyone to really predict. Could someone make a good amount of money by having sold on the way down and bought in when it was lower? Sure, but that really is more dumb luck than skill. Depending on how long it takes your brokerage to process your sales and purchases and even if you were almost perfect in timing the  market, you may still not have made anything or may have lost more.

I think the big thing with the coronovirus  and it's impact on the markets is that people need to take a hard look at their risk tolerances. If they panicked, they may want to look at how much they have is stocks vs CD's and cash equivalents or look at what type of stocks their stock portfolio is made up of. I am FIRE'd with 100% stocks and I still feel comfortable with that.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 11, 2020, 02:35:21 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on June 11, 2020, 06:06:21 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 11, 2020, 06:12:07 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: dragoncar on June 11, 2020, 06:56:50 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.

Thatís why I like to react preemptively
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 11, 2020, 10:00:29 PM
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.

Thatís why I like to react preemptively

Preemptive Reaction! I saw them open for Prong back in the day.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 30, 2020, 06:30:17 PM
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: ender on June 30, 2020, 07:44:17 PM
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html

well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on June 30, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html

well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.

What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Full_Beard on July 01, 2020, 12:40:20 AM
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
It ignores that the 2nd quarter followed the worst first quarter (for the SP500) since 2008 and the YTD return (factoring in dividends) is less than 1%.

There are articles predicting DOW at 30,000 by 1/1/2021 and others that it will be down to 20,000 or less. Right now, fundamentals aren't in play (or barely in play), weird things are happening (e.g., HTZ and ZM prices), and there's a lot of uncertainty (pandemic, unemployment, bankruptcies, Fed's magic, future stimuli, etc.), so how this plays out is a complete guess.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on July 01, 2020, 07:22:15 AM
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
It ignores that the 2nd quarter followed the worst first quarter (for the SP500) since 2008 and the YTD return (factoring in dividends) is less than 1%.

There are articles predicting DOW at 30,000 by 1/1/2021 and others that it will be down to 20,000 or less. Right now, fundamentals aren't in play (or barely in play), weird things are happening (e.g., HTZ and ZM prices), and there's a lot of uncertainty (pandemic, unemployment, bankruptcies, Fed's magic, future stimuli, etc.), so how this plays out is a complete guess.

So you are saying that it is really hard to predict what will happen? Thatís what Iíve been saying too! It is completely absurd to try and predict if there will be another 10, 20 ,30% drop in the next few years. Itís equally absurd to try and make a pronouncement that you can predict when the market will stop dropping and start going back up.

What I posted wasnít a prediction, just a note that that the S&P 500 has gone up 25% in the last three months.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: bthewalls on July 01, 2020, 03:18:36 PM
where did I once read that the year before the recession/depression always has highest growth (everyone over confindent)?

If trump kicked the bucket and bull marketiers freaked, or financial factors accumluate (unemployment, reduced revenue intake, reduced consumerism..or whatever), it wouldnt take much to push stock over the edge.

I think when buffet/berksire didnt buy in march it says alot about current stock valuation. Dalio's talking about a lost decade for investors....hard to ignore these people....

If I could time the market and go to cash now I would, but I cant so will go into the hole with everyone else.......

Baz
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 05, 2020, 07:14:55 AM
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html
well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
You're pretending all your investing started this year on April 1st?  It's a little late to play April Fools jokes, isn't it?  Anyone invested in March was not ahead after a +25% recovery from their -35% loss.
Title: Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on July 05, 2020, 11:35:21 PM
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html
well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
You're pretending all your investing started this year on April 1st?  It's a little late to play April Fools jokes, isn't it?  Anyone invested in March was not ahead after a +25% recovery from their -35% loss.

This thread is all about when the market will stop dropping. When will it stop? We are waiting to find out!