Author Topic: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run  (Read 3226 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« on: August 23, 2018, 06:26:29 AM »
Here's a CNN Money article byline:
"The bull market turns 3,453 days old on Wednesday. It's the longest period of uninterrupted gains in American history."
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/22/investing/bull-market-longest-stocks/index.html

First off, from May 2011 to September 2011 the US stock market lost -17.74% (according to Portfolio Visualizer).  So "uninterrupted gains" can't be days, months or even quarters.  They measure the bull run in days, then ignore months of negative stock returns.

Second, the crash of 2008 was second only in harshness to the Great Depression.  Between late 2007 (Nov) and early 2009 (Feb), stocks lost -51%.  A recovery from a massive crash is going to take longer than other recoveries.  So it might even be a pleasant surprise that the recovery only took until March 2012.  In other words, from Nov 2007 to Mar 2012 stocks broke even, for a +0% gain.

I don't agree with measuring bull runs isolated from prior crashes and recoveries.  So to me, this bull run started when stocks broke even, in April 2012.  From that perspective, stocks have made gains for 6 years since the last recovery.




talltexan

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2018, 07:08:02 AM »
I think you are correct to protest that we haven't had the kind of record growth that should make the media be excited in the way they are.

Compared to the 1990's, SP500 has been much weaker since the turn of the century. There are legitimate, structural reasons for asset returns to be lower so far, and for them to continue to be lower.

FIRE@50

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2018, 07:17:37 AM »
Have you used your metric to determine the length of the prior record holding bull market?

DreamFIRE

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2018, 08:54:34 AM »

According to this WSJ article, the index was down 20% using intraday levels in Oct 2011:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/calling-bull-on-the-longest-bull-market-1534940689

Quote
The S&P 500 itself fell 19.4% from its postcrisis closing high to the closing low of October 2011, although even here we can split hairs. Use intraday highs and lows and the index was down 21.6%, for a new bear market. Certainly to many investors it felt like a renewed panic, and nothing like a bull market.

Whether today marks a record is open to doubt either way. Based on closing prices, there was no bear market from 1987 until 2000 in the S&P 500, making that by far the longest bull run. Based on intraday prices, there were bear markets in 1990 and 1998, but that run was still longer than the run since 2011.

Retire-Canada

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2018, 09:21:53 AM »
Your main mistake was reading an article at CNN Money and giving a shit enough even bother starting this thread. Do you honestly believe that site will provide any significant insight into market performance that will be of use to your investing goals? Hopefully you answered no. If so why does it matter even a tiny bit what they bothered to print in that article?

AccidentalMiser

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2018, 09:32:47 AM »
Your main mistake was reading an article at CNN Money and giving a shit enough even bother starting this thread. Do you honestly believe that site will provide any significant insight into market performance that will be of use to your investing goals? Hopefully you answered no. If so why does it matter even a tiny bit what they bothered to print in that article?

I agree.  The least interesting feature of the current bull market is how long it has lasted relative to previous ones.  There are reasons to hope and reasons to fear.  There are reasons to buy and reasons to sell.  Nothing contained in all the blather regarding how long the current “bull” has lived, and certainly none of the nonsense about whether or not something that happened generations ago impacts what’s happening today, is relevant to what to do today and tomorrow.

Reading pop-finance websites is utterly pointless.  Most of the commentators rearrange the words of the previous writer, slap on a “Five Ways this Bull Market will Die of Old Age” title and recycle the same boring content to be read by the same bored people endlessly.

Can you tell I have a strong opinion about this?  I’m not busting on the OP, simply opining on the silliness of CNN Money, Yahoo Finance, and the like. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2018, 01:05:36 PM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2018, 01:08:51 PM »
If you're picking on CNN in particular, CNBC and Bloomberg both ran articles about this.  This is not a story solely put out by CNN.

Nope. They other two sources you mentioned are equally useless and should be ignored as well.

hodedofome

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2018, 01:54:19 PM »
There was another bear market from late 2014 to early 2016 that nobody in the media seems to consider. Stocks went nowhere for 1.5 years and there was a max intraday 15% decline. Bear markets can happen through time just as much as they can happen through price.

When someone says we've been in a bull market for 10 years, or even 6 years, I don't believe them. This current bull market started mid 2016 and IMO has at least a few more years in it. Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction, but I'm leveraged long and strong since late 2016. So far, thankfully, this premise has been correct.

DreamFIRE

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2018, 02:04:17 PM »
Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction

We actually had a correction back in February.

bwall

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 02:08:50 PM »
If you're picking on CNN in particular, CNBC and Bloomberg both ran articles about this.  This is not a story solely put out by CNN.

Nope. They other two sources you mentioned are equally useless and should be ignored as well.

hmmmm... ok. .. I'll bite.  What sources are not equally useless and can be not-ignored?

One

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2018, 02:11:05 PM »
I like to look at these yearly results, makes this "Bull" market look more like normal market.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_total_return_annual

Retire-Canada

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2018, 03:01:18 PM »
hmmmm... ok. .. I'll bite.  What sources are not equally useless and can be not-ignored?

Nobody can tell the future so there is no point reading any content online or in person that relates to that. What possible information would you get from any article anywhere about the length of this bull market that gives you useful actionable advice on what to do? There isn't any.

My investment plan does not rely on knowing what is going to happen tomorrow or next year or the year after that. So spending time reading sites like these ^^^ is pointless.


One

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2018, 04:01:28 PM »
Your main mistake was reading an article at CNN Money and giving a shit enough even bother starting this thread. Do you honestly believe that site will provide any significant insight into market performance that will be of use to your investing goals? Hopefully you answered no. If so why does it matter even a tiny bit what they bothered to print in that article?

Geez, lighten up Canada, I didn't think you guys were so serious up there?
« Last Edit: August 23, 2018, 04:07:46 PM by One »

AnonymousCoward

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2018, 09:35:21 PM »
There is some "financial" news that matters.

It's worthwhile to keep track of changes in tax laws for example. For example, the IRS published guidance on section 199A a couple weeks ago. That's the much hullabalooed pass-through deduction. That's worth reading about, at least enough to determine whether or not it effects you.

And every year I check to see if the contribution limits for IRAs, 401ks, HSAs, etc have changed.

But generally Retire-Canada is correct. High quality financial journalism does exist (the Economist, and occasionally in better newspapers), but you are free to ignore it because it has zero relevance to individual, buy-and-hold, index fund investors.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2018, 11:10:09 PM »
There was another bear market from late 2014 to early 2016 that nobody in the media seems to consider. Stocks went nowhere for 1.5 years and there was a max intraday 15% decline.
I'm interested in seeing this myself, and being able to view similar data.  Portfolio Visualizer only displays the largest drawdown - for 2014 through 2016 it notes the -8.9% decline from June 2015 to September 2015.

What tool or website do you use to see the 2014-2016 data where stocks had almost no gains?

talltexan

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2018, 06:59:01 AM »
If you're picking on CNN in particular, CNBC and Bloomberg both ran articles about this.  This is not a story solely put out by CNN.

Nope. They other two sources you mentioned are equally useless and should be ignored as well.

hmmmm... ok. .. I'll bite.  What sources are not equally useless and can be not-ignored?

Marketwatch.

Maenad

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2018, 09:45:59 AM »
Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction

We actually had a correction back in February.

And, IIRC, it took a little longer than average to get back up to the previous high point. So, how is that not a "real" correction?

There was a correction in 2011*, one at the beginning of 2018, and pretty much the entire year of 2015 was flat. Defining this as "the longest bull market ever" because we haven't had a bear market drop of 20%+* is being overly prescriptive in one's definitions just to justify hyperbole.

* Though the WSJ article quoted by DreamFire would argue against that as well.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2018, 10:30:41 AM »
Defining this as "the longest bull market ever" because we haven't had a bear market drop of 20%+* is being overly prescriptive in one's definitions just to justify hyperbole.
I've started to suspect that's what happened.  For example, the -18% drop over ~16 months doesn't seem like a bull market, but it's less than a drop of -20%.

hodedofome

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2018, 12:15:39 PM »
There was another bear market from late 2014 to early 2016 that nobody in the media seems to consider. Stocks went nowhere for 1.5 years and there was a max intraday 15% decline.
I'm interested in seeing this myself, and being able to view similar data.  Portfolio Visualizer only displays the largest drawdown - for 2014 through 2016 it notes the -8.9% decline from June 2015 to September 2015.

What tool or website do you use to see the 2014-2016 data where stocks had almost no gains?

You can try tradingview.com or yahoo finance interactive charts to see it. PortfolioVisualizer only looks at monthly data I believe.

hodedofome

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2018, 12:16:16 PM »
Defining this as "the longest bull market ever" because we haven't had a bear market drop of 20%+* is being overly prescriptive in one's definitions just to justify hyperbole.
I've started to suspect that's what happened.  For example, the -18% drop over ~16 months doesn't seem like a bull market, but it's less than a drop of -20%.

Intraday on 10/4/2011 it was a 20% decline.

DreamFIRE

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2018, 05:01:56 PM »
Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction

We actually had a correction back in February.

And, IIRC, it took a little longer than average to get back up to the previous high point. So, how is that not a "real" correction?

Yes indeed, the S&P500 finally had a new record close high just today beating the Jan 26th record close high after hitting a new intraday record high just 3 days ago.  Today's intraday high was a record as well.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 05:13:01 PM by DreamFIRE »

harvestbook

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2018, 07:03:47 PM »

Ms.Fortuna

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2018, 07:27:22 PM »
There was another bear market from late 2014 to early 2016 that nobody in the media seems to consider. Stocks went nowhere for 1.5 years and there was a max intraday 15% decline. Bear markets can happen through time just as much as they can happen through price.

When someone says we've been in a bull market for 10 years, or even 6 years, I don't believe them. This current bull market started mid 2016 and IMO has at least a few more years in it. Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction, but I'm leveraged long and strong since late 2016. So far, thankfully, this premise has been correct.

Some make a case we are still in a secular bear market which started in 2000.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-There-Yet.pdf


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2018, 09:35:58 PM »
Defining this as "the longest bull market ever" because we haven't had a bear market drop of 20%+* is being overly prescriptive in one's definitions just to justify hyperbole.
I've started to suspect that's what happened.  For example, the -18% drop over ~16 months doesn't seem like a bull market, but it's less than a drop of -20%.

Intraday on 10/4/2011 it was a 20% decline.
I can't find the two days where this happened, but an article referenced in this thread backs up what you're saying:

"From April through October 2011, the S&P 500 fell 21.6% intra-day. However, on a closing basis, it fell just 19.4%, so an official bear market didn’t make the record books. I understand a line has to be drawn somewhere, even if it is arbitrary, but in my mind that was a bear market."
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/08/05/the-longest-bull-market-of-all-time/
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 09:39:43 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

smallstache

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #25 on: August 25, 2018, 04:41:56 AM »
hmmmm... ok. .. I'll bite.  What sources are not equally useless and can be not-ignored?

Marketwatch.

Marketwatch...useless

marty998

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #26 on: August 25, 2018, 10:27:12 PM »
There was another bear market from late 2014 to early 2016 that nobody in the media seems to consider. Stocks went nowhere for 1.5 years and there was a max intraday 15% decline. Bear markets can happen through time just as much as they can happen through price.

When someone says we've been in a bull market for 10 years, or even 6 years, I don't believe them. This current bull market started mid 2016 and IMO has at least a few more years in it. Everyone keeps screaming we're due for a correction, but I'm leveraged long and strong since late 2016. So far, thankfully, this premise has been correct.

Some make a case we are still in a secular bear market which started in 2000.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-There-Yet.pdf

That link is from 2015 and they called "top is in" haha.

Interesting reading nonetheless, but as always, past performance is no indication of future performance.

talltexan

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Re: There's definitely "bull" in this bull run
« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2018, 11:30:12 AM »
hmmmm... ok. .. I'll bite.  What sources are not equally useless and can be not-ignored?

Marketwatch.

Marketwatch...useless

Market watch publishes output from Larry Swedroe. Can you point me to an article of his that you think is wrong?

Obviously having content of his is not sufficient to judge the whole source, but I'd argue that you'll be richer over your life if you read the things he writes.