Author Topic: The thing I hate about VTSAX  (Read 5555 times)

dragoncar

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Re: The thing I hate about VTSAX
« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2019, 08:57:45 PM »
So, I definitely believe in wisdom of the crowds, and I do believe that most people, me included, have little chance of consistently picking winners... but... BUT!

Uber is down 40% from where it was 2 months ago.  Has the projected market size of ride hailing apps fallen 40%?  Or maybe % of trucking routes that can be easily automated?  Or maybe uberís projected market share of those has fallen?

Clearly none of that is true.

I may be convinced that EMH isnít exact.  The future is uncertain, and for a startup like Uber the fair value might fall in a -50%/+100% range, and the rest is just noise.

But Iím more convinced there is a significant herd mentality and trend following, as opposed to wisdom of the crowds.

Maybe the projected number of competitors has increased by 40%

Boofinator

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Re: The thing I hate about VTSAX
« Reply #51 on: September 04, 2019, 12:33:35 PM »
So, I definitely believe in wisdom of the crowds, and I do believe that most people, me included, have little chance of consistently picking winners... but... BUT!

Uber is down 40% from where it was 2 months ago.  Has the projected market size of ride hailing apps fallen 40%?  Or maybe % of trucking routes that can be easily automated?  Or maybe uberís projected market share of those has fallen?

Clearly none of that is true.

I may be convinced that EMH isnít exact.  The future is uncertain, and for a startup like Uber the fair value might fall in a -50%/+100% range, and the rest is just noise.

But Iím more convinced there is a significant herd mentality and trend following, as opposed to wisdom of the crowds.

Agreed that there is some herd mentality. But I think more importantly, the EMH results in prices that take into account past information but don't take into account future information (obviously). So, there was almost certainly some information that came out in the last two months that negatively affected Uber's price to the tune of about 40%. (This information was likely a combination of several things, some directly and some indirectly tied to Uber, rather than any specific smoking gun, and of course some herd mentality....)

TomTX

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Re: The thing I hate about VTSAX
« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2019, 06:35:05 AM »

Tesla is a good company, but has cash flow/debt risk and is it has a higher market cap than GM.

Huh? Tesla has the highest cash reserves they've ever had, and were cash flow positive by nearly $600M for 2Q, and around $850M for both 3Q and 4Q of last year. For the trailing 4 quarters they're way cash flow positive. For 2018 they weren't cash flow positive, but it wasn't much of a miss.

1Q2019 was about -$950M in cash flow. 1Q is typically bad for all car manufacturers.

It would be difficult for Tesla to not be cash flow positive for 2019 overall.